Burden of lower respiratory infections and associated risk factors across regions in Ethiopia: a subnational analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases 2019 study.

OBJECTIVE: This analysis is to present the burden and trends of morbidity and mortality due to lower respiratory infections (LRIs), their contributing risk factors, and the disparity across administrative regions and cities from 1990 to 2019. DESIGN: This analysis used Global Burden of Disease 2019 framework to estimate morbidity and mortality outcomes of LRI and its contributing risk factors. The Global Burden of Disease study uses all available data sources and Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate deaths from LRI and a meta-regression disease modelling technique to estimate LRI non-fatal outcomes with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). STUDY SETTING: The study includes nine region states and two chartered cities of Ethiopia. OUTCOME MEASURES: We calculated incidence, death and years of life lost (YLLs) due to LRIs and contributing risk factors using all accessible data sources. We calculated 95% UIs for the point estimates. RESULTS: In 2019, LRIs incidence, death and YLLs among all age groups were 8313.7 (95% UI 7757.6-8918), 59.4 (95% UI 49.8-71.4) and 2404.5 (95% UI 2059.4-2833.3) per 100 000 people, respectively. From 1990, the corresponding decline rates were 39%, 61% and 76%, respectively. Children under the age of 5 years account for 20% of episodes, 42% of mortalities and 70% of the YLL of the total burden of LRIs in 2019. The mortality rate was significantly higher in predominantly pastoralist regions-Benishangul-Gumuz 101.8 (95% UI 84.0-121.7) and Afar 103.7 (95% UI 86.6-122.6). The Somali region showed the least decline in mortality rates. More than three-fourths of under-5 child deaths due to LRIs were attributed to malnutrition. Household air pollution from solid fuel attributed to nearly half of the risk factors for all age mortalities due to LRIs in the country. CONCLUSION: In Ethiopia, LRIs have reduced significantly across the regions over the years (except in elders), however, are still the third-leading cause of mortality, disproportionately affecting children younger than 5 years old and predominantly pastoralist regions. Interventions need to consider leading risk factors, targeted age groups and pastoralist and cross-border communities.

High proportion of RR-TB and mutations conferring RR outside of the RRDR of the rpoB gene detected in GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Globally, TB is the leading cause of infectious disease morbidity and mortality with many diagnostic uncertainties. Access to affordable and rapid diagnostics remained a major challenge for many developing countries which bear the greatest burden of TB delaying the initiation time to treatment. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the GeneXpert MTBRIF assay probe utility for the detection of pulmonary TB and Rifampicin-resistant TB cases in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed from October 2019 to July 2020 in Saint Peter TB Specialized Hospital in Addis Ababa metropolitan area, Ethiopia. This study enrolled 216 clinically suspected new presumptive pulmonary TB cases confirmed by GeneXpert MTB/RIF Assay. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were captured using a structured tool. Data were entered in Microsoft Excel 2019, checked for inconsistency, cleaned promptly, and exported to IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 26.0. Armonk, N.Y: IBM Corp, the USA for analysis. Descriptive analysis and binary and multivariate logistics regression were performed and all statistical significance was determined at a 95% confidence level. RESULTS: The majority of the study participants, 55.1% [119/216] were males aged 6-80 years. The prevalence of RR MTB was 11.11% [24/216]. A higher proportion of RR TB was found in female patients [54.2%, 13/24], in patients in the age group of 30-50 years [45.8%, 11/24], in married individuals [62.5%, 15/24], in persons whose residence is urban [79.2%, 19/24], in persons who had a previous history of TB symptoms [100%, 24/24], in persons who had a history of contact with active and LTBI [33.3%, 8/24], and in persons who had a history of HIV and IDUs [41.7%, 10/24]. Occupation (AOR 22.868, 95% CI 1.655-316.022, p = 0.019), history of previous PTB+ (AOR 4.222, 95% CI 1.020-17.47, p = 0.047), and history of HIV and IDUs (AOR 4.733, 95% CI 1.416-15.819, p = 0.012) were independent predictors associated with RR-TB emergence. The commonest mutation 62.5% [15/24] was found in probe E (codons 529-533) region. There was no mutation associated with probe A (codons 507-511), probe B (codons 511-518), and probe C (codons 518-523) regions, as well as no combination of missed probes, was revealed. However, 12.5% [3/24] of RR TB patients were found without unidentified missed probe types detected outside of the RRDR. The delta Ct max was >4.0 and the highest proportion of 35.6% [77/216] RR TB was detected in samples of medium DNA load. CONCLUSION: The proportion of RR-TB we observed in this study was high. Similarly, a higher proportion of RR TB was detected outside of the RRDR. Moreover, a significant number of the GeneXpert MTB/RIF Assay probes were identified as unhybridized and this critical observation would mean that most of the probes had no or minimal utility in this geographical region. This calls for further studies to uncover mutation in the rpoB gene conferring RR and reshape TB triage and definite diagnostic algorithm in Ethiopia.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

IMPORTANCE: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Xpert MTB/RIF assay for diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in sputum specimens in remote health care facility.

BACKGROUND: Xpert MTB/RIF assay is considered as a great advance over conventional smear and culture in the diagnosis of TB and MDR-TB by simultaneously detecting M.tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance bacilli. However, very little information regarding the performance characteristics of Xpert MTB/RIF assay is available in Ethiopia. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of Xpert MTB/RIF assay compared to conventional sputum smear and culture methods for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in remote health care facility. METHODS: A paired expectorated sputum samples were obtained from 227 consecutively recruited patients with signs and symptoms suggestive of tuberculosis at Karamara hospital during December 2013 to May 2014. One of the sputum specimen was tested directly by Ziehl-Neelsen staining and Xpert MTB/RIF assay without NALC-NaOH decontamination. The other of pair of sputa specimen was cultured for isolation of TB bacilli by conventional methods. Diagnostic performance of Xpert MTB/RIF assay and AFB smear microscopy were calculated against culture as the gold standard. RESULTS: Overall 25.5% (58/227) samples were positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) by MGIT and/or LJ media of which 36.2% (21/58) and 65.5% (35/58) were positive by AFB smear microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, as well as the positive and negative predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF assay were 65.5% (95% CI: 53.3-77.7%), 96.3% (95% CI: 93.4-99.2%), 86.4% (95% CI: 76.2-96.5%), and 88.6% (95% CI: 83.9-93.3%) respectively. Eighteen of 58 (31%) cases that were smear microscopy negative, were positive by Xpert MTB/RIF assay. CONCLUSIONS: Although Xpert MTB/RIF assay demonstrated high sensitivity in detecting MTBC in sputum specimens compared with conventional AFB smear microscopy, it demonstrated suboptimal sensitivity in smear negative patients compared to conventional culture.