Development of a clinical risk score to predict death in patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To build a clinical risk score to aid risk stratification among hospitalised COVID-19 patients. METHODS: The score was built using data of 417 consecutive COVID-19 in patients from Kuwait. Risk factors for COVID-19 mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regressions and assigned weighted points proportional to their beta coefficient values. A final score was obtained for each patient and tested against death to calculate an Receiver-operating characteristic curve. Youden's index was used to determine the cut-off value for death prediction risk. The score was internally validated using another COVID-19 Kuwaiti-patient cohort of 923 patients. External validation was carried out using 178 patients from the Italian CoViDiab cohort. RESULTS: Deceased COVID-19 patients more likely showed glucose levels of 7.0-11.1 mmol/L (34.4%, p < 0.0001) or >11.1 mmol/L (44.3%, p < 0.0001), and comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension compared to those who survived (39.3% vs. 20.4% [p = 0.0027] and 45.9% vs. 26.6% [p = 0.0036], respectively). The risk factors for in-hospital mortality in the final model were gender, nationality, asthma, and glucose categories (<5.0, 5.5-6.9, 7.0-11.1, or 11.1 > mmol/L). A score of ≥5.5 points predicted death with 75% sensitivity and 86.3% specificity (area under the curve (AUC) 0.901). Internal validation resulted in an AUC of 0.826, and external validation showed an AUC of 0.687. CONCLUSION: This clinical risk score was built with easy-to-collect data and had good probability of predicting in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients.

A Study Examining the Orbera365 Intragastric Balloon Safety and Effects on Weight Loss.

INTRODUCTION: The Orbera365 is a new balloon that can stay in the stomach for up to 12 months. The aim of this study is to investigate the safety and effect of Orbera365. METHOD: Prospective study on our initial experience with a consecutive group of patients who underwent the insertion of Orbera365 in the period between September 2019 and August 2020. The patients were followed up to assess, pain, nausea, and vomiting after procedure, weight loss, and the complication rate. RESULTS: A total of 97 patients underwent Orbera365 placement. Mean weight and BMI before the procedure were 93.8 ± 15.2 kg and 35.2 ± 4.4 kg/m2, respectively, which dropped to 80.6 ± 13.1 kg and 29.8 ± 4.0 kg/m2 by 8.2 months and were 82.4 ± 16.1 and 30.4 ± 4.6 at the last day of follow-up of 12.9 months. Fourteen patients did not tolerate the balloon, and had to have it removed, six of them in the first week, and eight within the first 8 months of insertion. Other than intolerance, two patients had balloon rupture, three patients had leakage at time of insertion requiring balloon replacement, two patient had pancreatitis, one patient had spontaneous balloon hyperinflation, and one patient had balloon deflation and vomited the balloon. At day of last follow-up, total body weight loss % (TBWL%) was 16.2 ± 10.1 and %EWL was 54.6 ± 38.3. CONCLUSION: Orbera365 is safe and effective for weight loss.

Probabilities of ICU admission and hospital discharge according to patient characteristics in the designated COVID-19 hospital of Kuwait.

BACKGROUND: Subsequent epidemic waves have already emerged in many countries and in the absence of highly effective preventive and curative options, the role of patient characteristics on the development of outcomes needs to be thoroughly examined, especially in middle-east countries where such epidemiological studies are lacking. There is a huge pressure on the hospital services and in particular, on the Intensive Care Units (ICU). Describing the need for critical care as well as the chance of being discharged from hospital according to patient characteristics, is essential for a more efficient hospital management. The objective of this study is to describe the probabilities of admission to the ICU and the probabilities of hospital discharge among positive COVID-19 patients according to demographics and comorbidities recorded at hospital admission. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of all patients with COVID-19 found in the Electronic Medical Records of Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Hospital in Kuwait was conducted. The study included 3995 individuals (symptomatic and asymptomatic) of all ages who tested positive from February 24th to May 27th, 2020, out of which 315 were treated in the ICU and 3619 were discharged including those who were transferred to a different healthcare unit without having previously entered the ICU. A competing risk analysis considering two events, namely, ICU admission and hospital discharge using flexible hazard models was performed to describe the association between event-specific probabilities and patient characteristics. RESULTS: Results showed that being male, increasing age and comorbidities such as chronic kidney disease (CKD), asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and weakened immune system increased the risk of ICU admission within 10 days of entering the hospital. CKD and weakened immune system decreased the probabilities of discharge in both females and males however, the age-related pattern differed by gender. Diabetes, which was the most prevalent comorbid condition, had only a moderate impact on both probabilities (18% overall) in contrast to CKD which had the largest effect, but presented only in 7% of those admitted to ICU and in 1% of those who got discharged. For instance, within 5 days a 50-year-old male had 19% (95% C.I.: [15,23]) probability of entering the ICU if he had none of these comorbidities, yet this risk jumped to 31% (95% C.I.: [20,46]) if he had also CKD, and to 27% in the presence of asthma/COPD (95% C.I.: [19,36]) or of weakened immune system (95% C.I.: [16,42]). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides useful insight in describing the probabilities of ICU admission and hospital discharge according to age, gender, and comorbidities among confirmed COVID-19 cases in Kuwait. A web-tool is also provided to allow the user to estimate these probabilities for any combination of these covariates. These probabilities enable deeper understanding of the hospital demand according to patient characteristics which is essential to hospital management and useful for developing a vaccination strategy.

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme (ACE) Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (ARB) Are Protective Against ICU Admission and Mortality for Patients With COVID-19 Disease.

Introduction: Corona Virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a global pandemic. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of being on an Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors (ACEI) and/or Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (ARB) on hospital admission, on the following COVID-19 outcomes: disease severity, ICU admission, and mortality. Methods: The charts of all patients consecutively diagnosed with COVID-19 from the 24th of February to the 16th of June of the year 2020 in Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah hospital in Kuwait were checked. All related patient information and clinical data was retrieved from the hospitals electronic medical record system. The primary outcome was COVID-19 disease severity defined as the need for Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Secondary outcome was mortality. Results: A total of 4,019 COVID-19 patients were included, of which 325 patients (8.1%) used ACEI/ARB, users of ACEI/ARB were found to be significantly older (54.4 vs. 40.5 years). ACEI/ARB users were found to have more co-morbidities; diabetes (45.8 vs. 14.8%) and hypertension (92.9 vs. 13.0%). ACEI/ARB use was found to be significantly associated with greater risk of ICU admission in the unadjusted analysis [OR, 1.51 (95% CI: 1.04-2.19), p = 0.028]. After adjustment for age, gender, nationality, coronary artery disease, diabetes and hypertension, ICU admission was found to be inversely associated with ACEI use [OR, 0.57 (95% CI: 0.34-0.88), p = 0.01] and inversely associated with mortality [OR, 0.56 (95% CI: 0.33-0.95), p = 0.032]. Conclusion: The current evidence in the literature supports continuation of ACEI/ARB medications for patients with co-morbidities that acquire COVID-19 infection. Although, the protective effects of such medications on COVID-19 disease severity and mortality remain unclear, the findings of the present study support the use of ACEI/ARB medication.

The impact of ABO blood groups on clinical outcomes and susceptibility to COVID-19: A retrospective study in an unselected population.

BACKGROUND: ABO blood groups have been linked to susceptibility to infection with certain microorganisms, including coronaviruses. We examined the relationship between blood group and clinical outcomes in individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and compared their blood group distribution with the general population. METHODS: At the inception of the pandemic, all individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in Kuwait were admitted to one designated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospital and enrolled in a prospective registry. Patients admitted from February 24 to May 27, 2020, were stratified according to blood group. As a control, blood groups of 3,730,027 anonymized individuals representing almost Kuwait's entire population were obtained from a national database. RESULTS: Of 3305 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients, 37.1%, 25.5%, 28.9%, and 8.5% were groups O, A, B, and AB, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed no significant differences in severe clinical outcomes or death among the blood groups. However, multivariable analysis demonstrated that group A individuals had higher odds of developing pneumonia compared with non-group A (adjusted odds ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.72, p < .036). Compared with the general population, the COVID-19 cohort had a lower frequency of group O, equivalent frequency of A, and higher frequency of B and AB. No significant difference in the RhD group was found. CONCLUSION: This study supports potential involvement of the ABO blood group system in predisposing to infection with SARS-CoV-2 in an unselected population. Examination of the mechanistic link between blood group and COVID-19 and its implications on controlling the current pandemic is warranted.

Prevalence and risk factors of barotrauma in Covid-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit in Kuwait; a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The development of barotrauma has been suggested to complicate the management of mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). This study aims to identify potential risk factors associated with the development of barotrauma related complications in COVID-19 patients receiving mechanical ventilation. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was carried out in a single COVID-19 designated center in Kuwait. Three hundred and forty-three confirmed COVID-19 patients transferred and/or admitted to our institution between February 26, 2020 and June 20, 2020 were included in the study. All patients were admitted into the ICU with the majority being mechanically ventilated (81.3%). RESULTS: Fifty-four (15.4%) patients developed barotrauma, of which 49 (90.7%) presented with pneumothorax, and 14.8% and 3.7% due to pneumomediastinum and pneumopericardium respectively. Of those that developed barotrauma, 52 (96.3%) patients were in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Biochemically, the white blood cells (p = 0.001), neutrophil percentage (p = 0.012), lymphocyte percentage (p = 0.014), neutrophil: lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (p=<0.001) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (p = 0.002) were found to be significantly different in patients that developed barotrauma. Intubation due to low level of consciousness (p = 0.007), a high admission COVID-GRAM score (p = 0.042), and a positive-end expiratory pressure (PEEP) higher than the control group (p = 0.016) were identified as potential risk factors for the development of barotrauma. CONCLUSION: Patients infected with COVID-19 have a significant risk of developing barotrauma when receiving invasive mechanical ventilation. This poses a substantial impact on the hospital course of the patients and clinical outcome, correlating to a higher mortality rate in this cohort of patients.

COVID-19: Impact of obesity and diabetes on disease severity.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining the healthcare system, particularly for patients with severe outcomes requiring admittance to the intensive care unit (ICU). This study investigated the potential associations of obesity and diabetes with COVID-19 severe outcomes, assessed as ICU admittance. Medical history, demographic and patient characteristics of a retrospective cohort (1158 patients) hospitalized with COVID-19 were analysed at a single centre in Kuwait. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to explore the associations between different variables and ICU admittance. Of 1158 hospitalized patients, 271 had diabetes, 236 had hypertension and 104 required admittance into the ICU. From patients with available measurements, 157 had body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2 . Univariate analysis showed that overweight, obesity class I and morbid obesity were associated with ICU admittance. Patients with diabetes were more likely to be admitted to the ICU. Two models for multivariate regression analysis assessed either BMI or diabetes on ICU outcomes. In the BMI model, class I and morbid obesities were associated with ICU admittance. In the diabetes model, diabetes was associated with increased ICU admittance, whereas hypertension had a protective effect on ICU admittance. In our cohort, overweight, obesity and diabetes in patients with COVID-19 were associated with ICU admittance, increasing the risk of poor outcomes.

A biomarker based severity progression indicator for COVID-19: the Kuwait prognosis indicator score.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a worldwide pandemic that is mild in most patients but can result in a pneumonia like illness with progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome and death. Predicting the disease severity at time of diagnosis can be helpful in prioritizing hospital admission and resources. METHODS: We prospectively recruited 1096 consecutive patients of whom 643 met the inclusion criterion with COVID-19 from Jaber Hospital, a COVID-19 facility in Kuwait, between 24 February and 20 April 2020. The primary endpoint of interest was disease severity defined algorithmically. Predefined risk variables were collected at the time of PCR based diagnosis of the infection. Prognostic model development used 5-fold cross-validated regularized logit regression. The model was externally validated against data from Wuhan, China. RESULTS: There were 643 patients with clinical course data of whom 94 developed severe COVID-19. In the final model, age, CRP, procalcitonin, lymphocyte percentage, monocyte percentages and serum albumin were independent predictors of a more severe illness course. The final prognostic model demonstrated good discrimination, and both discrimination and calibration were confirmed with an external dataset. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a simple score calculated at time of diagnosis that can predict patients with severe COVID-19 disease reliably and that has been validated externally. The KPI score calculator is now available online at covidkscore.com.

COVID-19 clinical outcomes and nationality: results from a Nationwide registry in Kuwait.

BACKGROUND: In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, many have flagged racial and ethnic differences in health outcomes in western countries as an urgent global public health priority. Kuwait has a unique demographic profile with two-thirds of the population consisting of non-nationals, most of which are migrant workers. We aimed to explore whether there is a significant difference in health outcomes between non-Kuwaiti and Kuwaiti patients diagnosed with COVID-19. METHODS: We used a prospective COVID-19 registry of all patients (symptomatic and asymptomatic) in Kuwait who tested positive from February 24th to April 20th, 2020, collected from Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Hospital, the officially-designated COVID-19 healthcare facility in the country. We ran separate logistic regression models comparing non-Kuwaitis to Kuwaitis for death, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and pneumonia. RESULTS: The first 1123 COVID-19 positive patients in Kuwait were all recruited in the study. About 26% were Kuwaitis and 73% were non-Kuwaiti. With adjustments made to age, gender, smoking and selected co-morbidities, non-Kuwaitis had two-fold increase in the odds of death or being admitted to the intensive care unit compared to Kuwaitis (OR: 2.14, 95% CI 1.12-4.32). Non-Kuwaitis had also higher odds of ARDS (OR:2.44, 95% CI 1.23-5.09) and pneumonia (OR: 2.24, 95% CI 1.27-4.12). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to report on COVID-19 outcomes between Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti patients. The current pandemic may have amplified the differences of health outcomes among marginalized subpopulations. A number of socioeconomic and environmental factors could explain this health disparity. More research is needed to advance the understanding of policymakers in Kuwait in order to make urgent public health interventions.

Characteristics, risk factors and outcomes among the first consecutive 1096 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Kuwait.

BACKGROUND: In Kuwait, prior to the first case of COVID-19 being reported in the country, mass screening of incoming travelers from countries with known outbreaks was performed and resulted in the first identified cases in the country. All COVID-19 cases at the time and subsequently after, were transferred to a single center, Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Hospital, where the patients received standardized investigations and treatments. The objective of this study was to characterize the demographics, clinical manifestations, and outcomes in this unique patient population. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted between 24th February 2020 and 20th April 2020. All consecutive patients in the entire State of Kuwait diagnosed with COVID-19 according to WHO guidelines and admitted to Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Hospital were included. Patients received standardized investigations and treatments. Multivariable analysis was used to determine the associations between risk factors and outcomes (admission to intensive care and/or mortality). FINDINGS: Of 1096 patients, the median age was 41 years and 81% of patients were male. Most patients were asymptomatic on admission (46.3%), of whom 35 later developed symptoms, and 59.7% had no signs of infection. Only 3.6% of patients required an ICU admission and 1.7% were dead at the study's cutoff date. On multivariable analysis, the risk factors found to be significantly associated with admission to intensive care were age above 50 years old, a qSOFA score above 0, smoking, elevated CRP and elevated procalcitonin levels. Asthma, smoking and elevated procalcitonin levels correlated significantly with mortality in our cohort.