Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling.

INTRODUCTION: To estimate the impact of reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity (PIA) prevalence, and of introducing physical activity (PA) as an explicit intervention, on the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Oman. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A deterministic population-level mathematical model was employed to investigate the impact of different scenarios for reducing T2DM risk factors on T2DM epidemiology. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status and parameterized with nationally representative data. Intervention scenarios were calculated and compared with a baseline (no-intervention) scenario for changes in T2DM prevalence, incidence, and mortality among adult Omanis between 2020 and 2050. RESULTS: In the no-intervention scenario, T2DM prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. Achieving the goals of halting the rise of obesity, reducing smoking by 30%, and reducing PIA by 10% as outlined in the WHO's Global Action Plan for Non-communicable Diseases (implemented between 2020 and 2030 and then maintained between 2031 and 2050) would reduce T2DM prevalence by 32.2%, cumulative incidence by 31.3%, and related deaths by 19.3% by 2050. Halting the rise of or reducing obesity prevalence by 10%-50% would reduce T2DM prevalence by 33.0%-51.3%, cumulative incidence by 31.9%-53.0%, and related deaths by 19.5%-35.6%. Reducing smoking or PIA prevalence by 10%-50% would lead to smaller reductions of less than 5% in T2DM prevalence, cumulative incidence, and related deaths. Introducing PA with varying intensities at a 25% coverage would reduce T2DM prevalence by 4.9%-14.1%, cumulative incidence by 4.8%-13.8%, and related deaths by 3.4%-9.6% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention-for-prevention efforts targeting obesity reduction and introducing PA could result in major reductions in the T2DM burden. Prioritizing such interventions could alleviate the burden of T2DM in Oman and other countries with similarly high T2DM and obesity burdens.

Tactics of the tobacco industry in an Arab nation: a review of tobacco documents in Oman.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated tobacco industry interference in the tobacco control policies of Arab nations. This paper explores the tactics used by the industry to subvert tobacco control policies in Oman and offers lessons on how to prevent such interference in the future. METHODS: We searched the Truth Tobacco Industry Documents Archive using the word 'Oman', names of government institutions, policymakers and local tobacco distributors. Extracted data were noted chronologically by key elements of tobacco control measures. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Health Ministers' Council resolutions on tobacco control were also reviewed. RESULTS: Out of 1020 tobacco documents located, 327 were closely related to policy interference. Documents revealed that the industry met key government officials, offered in-kind services, used local diplomatic missions to influence Omani policymakers, opposed smoking bans, delayed regulations to lower tar and nicotine content of cigarettes, and to require effective health warnings, circumvented a tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship ban and provided voluntary codes as an alternative to effective regulations. Additionally, industry representatives lobbied individual countries in the GCC to veto tax increments and defeat consensus on agreed resolutions of the Health Ministers' Council. CONCLUSION: The tobacco industry interfered in all key public health policies aimed to reduce tobacco use in Oman. There is an urgent need for the Omani government to enforce the Civil Code of Conduct and develop guidelines for all policymakers through implementing Article 5.3 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control to curb the tobacco epidemic.

The introduction of tobacco excise taxation in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: a step in the right direction of advancing public health.

BACKGROUND: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries relied, until recently, solely on import duties for tobacco products. The agreement for the introduction of an excise and value added tax (VAT) in 2016 and 2017, respectively, in most GCC countries, was a major breakthrough for public health. There is, however, ample room for improvement. METHODS: The study examines the outcomes of tax reforms, for both public health and public finances, based on the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations and best practices worldwide. Tax simulations were performed using the WHO TaXSiM model. The study is based on data from Saudi Arabia, the only GCC country for which sufficient data existed. RESULTS: We recommend a stepwise tax reform, which involves increasing the current ad valorem excise tax rate, phasing out import duties keeping total tax share constant and introducing a minimum excise, and finally switching to a revenue-neutral specific excise. Specific excises must be adjusted for inflation and income increases. If implemented, cigarette tax reform simulations show that the recommended reforms would lead to a higher than 50% increase in cigarette prices, 16% reduction in cigarette sales and almost 50% increase in total cigarette tax revenue. A significant number of cigarette-related deaths would be averted. CONCLUSIONS: The recommended tax reforms are expected to lead to significant improvements in both public health and tobacco tax revenues. Our results provide useful insights that are of relevance to the whole GGC region. The effectiveness of the reforms, however, requires a strong tax and customs administration, including the establishment of a good database to monitor and advance public health.

Clinical Profile of Stroke Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department of a Major Stroke Centre in Oman.

Objectives: Stroke is a significant public health problem and one of the most important preventable non-communicable diseases. Preventive stroke programmes with a better focus on increasing awareness among those who are currently at risk are yet to be properly established in Oman. This study was conducted to describe the characteristics of stroke patients presenting to a tertiary care hospital in Oman. Methods: This cross-sectional hospital-based study included 193 stroke cases which were prospectively recruited from the Emergency Department of Khoula Hospital, Muscat, Oman. Data were collected from November 2017 to April 2018. Results: The total number of patients was 193 with 82.9% of strokes being ischaemic strokes. Of this, 58% were male. The mean age of stroke patients was 61.05 years. Risk factors included hypertension (72.5%) and diabetes mellitus (54.4%). Dyslipidaemia, atrial fibrillation and ischaemic heart diseases were not particularly prevalent in the studied population and 24.4% of ischaemic strokes had large artery atherosclerosis while 21.9% had small vessel occlusion. Significantly more patients had lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores, required intensive care unit admission and experienced in-hospital deaths due to haemorrhagic stroke compared to ischaemic stroke. Conclusion: This study provides essential data regarding stroke characteristics specific to Oman's population. Most of the information obtained appears to be in-line with what has been described internationally and, hence, preventive strategies similar to those indicated in extant literature can be implemented. This information can be utilised by health administrators in planning resource allocation. Further research is needed to explore rehabilitation aspects and long-term outcomes.

Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An age-structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population-based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors. RESULTS: The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus' share of Oman's national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for <1% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases throughout 2020-2050. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses affirmed these predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Oman is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades, consuming nearly one-third of the national health expenditure. The type 2 diabetes mellitus burden is heavily influenced by obesity. Interventions targeting this single risk factor should be a national priority to reduce and control the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Oman.

Economic cost of smoking and secondhand smoke exposure in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

BACKGROUND: The economic cost of smoking has been determined in many high-income countries as well as at a global level. This paper estimates the economic cost of smoking and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), for which no detailed study exists. METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2016 and the cost-of-illness approach to estimate direct costs (healthcare expenditures) and indirect costs (productivity losses due to morbidity and mortality). Indirect cost was estimated with and without the inclusion of musculoskeletal disorders, using the human capital approach. RESULTS: Total cost of smoking and SHS was estimated to be purchasing power parity (PPP)$ 34.5 billion in 2016, equivalent to 1.04% of the combined gross domestic product (GDP). SHS accounted for 20.4% of total cost. The highest proportion of indirect cost resulted from smoking in men and middle-aged people. The main causes of morbidity cost from smoking and SHS were chronic respiratory diseases and type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively. Cardiovascular diseases were the main contributor to mortality cost for both smoking and exposure to SHS. Including musculoskeletal disorders increased total cost to PPP$ 41.3 billion (1.25% of the combined GDP). CONCLUSION: The economic cost of smoking and SHS in the GCC states is relatively low compared with other high-income countries. Scaling-up implementation of evidence-based policies will prevent the evolution of a tobacco epidemic with its negative consequences for health and public finances.

Increasing Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Oman: A Joinpoint Trend Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to investigate the epidemiology of thyroid cancer and its trends in Oman over a 20-year period. METHODS: We analyzed all cases of primary thyroid cancer reported to the Oman National Cancer Registry between 1996 and 2015. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were calculated using the World Standard Population. Joinpoint regression was used to assess trends and obtain annual percentage changes (APC) in incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p-values at the alpha = 0.050 level. Gender-specific APC was used to project thyroid cancer incidence rates in Oman over the next 20 years. Population attributable fraction was calculated for obesity and current non-smoking. RESULTS: A total of 1285 cases of primary thyroid cancer cases were registered in Oman between 1996 and 2015, with a female to male ratio of 4:1. In men, the ASR was 2.0 per 100 000 while in females it was 7.6 per 100 000 (p < 0.010). Over 80.0% of thyroid tumors were of a papillary type and 19.0% follicular type. Statistically significant trends for thyroid cancer were detected in women from 2008-2015 (APC = 14.3%, 95% CI: 8.0-20.9, p < 0.010) and among both genders (APC = 16.7%, 95% CI: 4.9-29.9, p < 0.010). If current trends continue, thyroid cancer incidence will increase to 3.1, 16.6, and 11.8 per 100 000 by 2040 in men, women, and both genders, respectively. Nearly 10.0% of thyroid cancer can be prevented by controlling obesity in the Omani population. CONCLUSIONS: Oman has had moderate incidence rates of thyroid cancer with an increasing trend among women. Since projections estimate that the rates of this disease will double in women over the next 20 years, health authorities should consider providing sufficient resources to manage this condition and establish prevention programs that address obesity as part of the strategy for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases.

The status of tobacco control in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: progress in the implementation of the MPOWER measures.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) MPOWER measures are a set of highly effective tobacco control measures drawn from the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), designed to help countries reduce the prevalence of tobacco use. The WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic is published biennially to monitor global implementation of these measures. AIMS: This review aimed to critically assess the status of MPOWER implementation in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. METHODS: Data were collected for WHO Reports on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, focusing on the most recent 2019 edition. Regional population coverage figures were calculated using this data and population figures for the countries of the Region. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2018, for any MPOWER measure, there were 29 cases of countries progressing to the highest level of achievement; 23 cases of countries progressing to the intermediate levels from the lowest level; 12 cases of countries falling from the highest level; and 18 cases of countries falling to the lowest level. 57.7% of people are covered at the highest level for the monitoring measure; 63.7% for the smoke-free policies measure; 6.7% for the cessation measure; 60.7% for the health warnings measure; 37.4% for the mass media measure; 29.4% for the advertising bans measure; and 16.1% for the taxation measure. CONCLUSIONS: Countries must work comprehensively to improve tobacco control. Regional priorities should include lifting more people out of lowest level coverage for the health warnings and mass media measures, increasing taxation on tobacco products and improving access to cessation services.

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer in Oman: 20-Year Trends and Tumor Characteristics.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to investigate the epidemiology of lung cancer and its trends in Oman over 20 years. METHODS: We analyzed all cases of primary lung cancer reported to the Oman National Cancer Registry between 1996 and 2015. The World Standard Population was used to obtain age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) of lung cancer per 100 000. Analyses were conducted using univariate statistics. RESULTS: A total of 956 cases of primary lung cancer cases were registered in Oman between 1996 and 2015, with a male to female ratio of 3:1. In men, the ASR was 8.2 per 100 000, while in females it was 2.6 per 100 000 over the entire study period. There were no statistically significant differences in the ASR among men or women when the data was divided over three calendar periods (1996-2005, 2006-2015, and 1996-2015) (p = 0.332 and p = 0.577, respectively). There was also no increasing trend in the incidence of lung cancer. The risk of lung cancer onset commenced in the 30-34 year age group and the mean age at diagnosis was 60.0 years for men and 61.0 years for women. Adenocarcinoma was the most common type of lung cancer among Omanis with a higher proportion in females compared to males. CONCLUSIONS: Oman has one of the lowest incidence rates of lung cancer in the world with no evidence of an increasing trend of this cancer type. This could be attributed to low uptake of tobacco smoking among both sexes. National authorities should capitalize on this finding to avoid any future lung cancer epidemics especially those driven by tobacco use.

Impact of Clopidogrel on Mortality in Patients With Acute Heart Failure Stratified by Coronary Artery Disease: Findings From the Arabian Gulf Acute Heart Failure Registry (Gulf CARE).

We evaluated the impact of clopidogrel use on 3- and 12-months all-cause mortality in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) stratified by coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients admitted to 47 hospitals in 7 Middle Eastern countries with AHF from February to November 2012. Clopidogrel use was associated with significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality at 3 months (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.42-0.87; P = .007) and 12 months (aOR, 0.61; 95% CI: 0.47-0.79; P < .001). When the analysis was stratified by CAD, the clopidogrel group in those with AHF and CAD was also associated with significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality at 3 months (aOR, 0.56; 95% CI: 0.38-0.83; P = .003) and 12 months (aOR, 0.58; 95% CI: 0.44-0.77; P < .001). However, in AHF patients without CAD, clopidogrel use was not associated with any survival advantages, neither at 3 months (aOR, 0.99; 95% CI: 0.32-3.11; P = .987) nor at 12 months (aOR, 0.80; 95% CI: 0.37-1.72; P = .566). Clopidogrel use was associated with short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AHF and CAD. In AHF patients without CAD, clopidogrel use did not offer any survival advantage.

MPOWER, needs and challenges: trends in the implementation of the WHO FCTC in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

BACKGROUND: WHO MPOWER aims to help countries prioritize tobacco control measures in line with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. OBJECTIVES: This paper assessed the progress and challenges in implementing the 6 priority policies of MPOWER in countries of the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region since 2011. METHODS: A checklist was developed and scores assigned based on the MPOWER indicators (maximum score 37). MPOWER data for the Region in the 2015 and 2017 tobacco control reports were extracted and scored. Data from similar analyses for 2011 and 2013 were also included. Countries were ranked by scores for each indicator for 2015 and 2017 and for overall scores for 2011 to 2017. RESULTS: The Islamic Republic of Iran, Egypt and Pakistan had the highest scores in 2015 (33, 29 and 27 respectively) and the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan and Yemen had the highest scores in 2017 (34, 31 and 27 respectively). The indicators with the highest and lowest combined score for all countries were for advertising bans and compliance with smoke-free policies: 67 and 18 respectively in 2015, and 73 and 15 respectively in 2017. Most countries (15/22) had higher total scores in 2017 than 2015: Afghanistan, Bahrain and Syrian Arab Republic had the greatest increases. The total score for the Region increased from 416 out of a maximum score of 814 in 2011 to 471 in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Although notable achievements have been made in the Region, many challenges to policy implementation remain and require urgent action by governments of the countries of the Region.

Impact of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitors/Angiotensin Receptors Blockers on Mortality in Acute Heart Failure Patients with Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction in the Middle East: Observations from the Gulf Acute Heart Failure Registry (Gulf CARE).

AIMS: To evaluate the impact of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors (ACEIs)/ Angiotensin Receptors Blockers (ARBs) on in-hospital, 3- and 12-month all-cause mortality in Acute Heart Failure (AHF) patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction in 7 countries of the Middle East. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data was analysed from 2,683 consecutive patients admitted with AHF and Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction (LVEF) (<40%) from 47 hospitals from February to November 2012. Analyses were evaluated using univariate and multivariate statistics. The overall mean age of the cohort was 58±15, 72% (n=1,937) were males, 62% (n=1,651) had coronary artery disease, 57% (n=1,539) were hypertensives and 47% (n=1,268) had diabetes. Overall cumulative mortality at inhospital, 3- and 12-month follow-up was 5.8% (n=155), 12.6% (n=338) and 20.4% (n=548), respectively. Adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics as well as medication in a multivariate logistic regression model, ACEIs were associated with lower risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.48; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.25 to 0.94; p=0.031). At 3-month follow-up, both ACEIs (aOR, 0.64; 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.95; p=0.025) and ARBs (aOR, 0.34; 95% CI: 0.18 to 0.62; p<0.001) were associated with lower risk of mortality. Additionally, at 12-month follow-up, those prescribed ACEIs (aOR, 0.71; 95% CI: 0.53 to 0.96; p=0.027) and ARBs (aOR, 0.47; 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.71; p<0.001) were still associated with lower risk of mortality. CONCLUSION: ACEIs and ARBs treatments were associated with lower mortality risk during admission and up to 12-month of follow-up in Middle East AHF patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

Systolic Blood Pressure on Admission and Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With Acute Heart Failure: Observations From the Gulf Acute Heart Failure Registry.

We investigated the role of systolic blood pressure (SBP) in relation to in-hospital and postdischarge mortality in patients admitted with acute heart failure (AHF). The SBP of 4848 patients aged ≥18 years admitted with AHF was categorized into 5 groups: ≤90, 91 to 119, 120 to 139, 140 to 161, and >161 mm Hg. After adjusting for several confounders, multivariate logistic regression models showed that admission SBP was a significant predictor of mortality among both patients with preserved left ventricular function (defined as left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] ≥40%) and patients with left ventricular dysfunction (LVEF <40%). The adjusted odds ratios of in-hospital, 3-month, and 1-year mortality in the lowest SBP groups were 7.06 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.28-15.20; P < .001), 2.59 (95% CI: 1.35-4.96; P = .004), and 3.10 (95% CI: 2.04-4.72; P < .001) times the odds in the highest admission group (SBP > 161 mm Hg), respectively. We conclude that low admission SBP is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with AHF. The higher the admission SBP, the better the prognosis, regardless of age or LVEF.

Hypertension in the adult Omani population: predictors for unawareness and uncontrolled hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a significant predictor for cardiovascular diseases and is the most important preventable or modifiable cause of morbidity and mortality from these diseases. Undiagnosed cases of hypertension and poor control are important factors in controlling hypertension worldwide, including Oman. AIM OF THE STUDY: The aim of this study was to identify the important risk factors and predictors of the state of unawareness of the presence of hypertension, as well as the risk factors for poor control of blood pressure, among hypertensive patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from Oman World Health Survey (OWHS), 2008, were used in this study. The OWHS adopted a multistage stratified cluster sampling to select study participants. An interview questionnaire was used to collect data related to risk factors. Other parameters included blood pressure, anthropometric and biochemical measurements. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension in Oman was estimated to be 41.5%. Of those who were hypertensive, three-quarters of them (75.7%) were unaware of being hypertensive and 65.5% of them had inadequately controlled hypertension. Male sex, higher wealth, and paying fewer visits to health facilities were found associated with high proportions of unawareness and high proportion of uncontrolled hypertension. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: The study highlights high levels of unawareness of being hypertensive and high proportion of uncontrolled hypertension in Oman that need to be considered when developing health policies and strategies. Intersectorial collaborative and innovative strategies that focus on improving awareness, detection, and control of hypertension should be considered, especially with attention to young adults and men.

Epidemiology of Diabetes Mellitus in Oman: Results from two decades of research.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of diabetes mellitus over the past two decades in Oman, particularly in terms of its prevalence and incidence. In addition, the study sought to estimate the future incidence of diabetes in Oman. METHODS: Three national and three regional surveys conducted between 1991 and 2010 were analysed to obtain the age-adjusted prevalence and undiagnosed proportion of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among Omani subjects aged ≥20 years. Diabetes mellitus registers and published studies were used to determine incidence rates of both type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and T2DM in Oman. Linear regression was used to determine trends and projections for diabetes in 2050. RESULTS: The age-adjusted prevalence of T2DM in Oman varied from 10.4% to 21.1%, while the highest prevalence of impaired fasting glucose was found in males (35.1%). In comparison to men, higher incidence rates of T2DM were found in women (2.7 cases compared to 2.3 cases per 1,000 person-years, respectively). No significant trends were observed for the prevalence or incidence of T2DM in both genders. Undiagnosed T2DM was more common in men (range: 33-68%) than women (range: 27-53%). The results of this study show that by 2050, there will be an estimated 350,000 people with T2DM living in Oman (a 174% increase compared to estimates for 2015). CONCLUSION: Health authorities need to prioritise diabetes prevention and control in order to prevent or delay long-term complications and avert a potential epidemic of diabetes in Oman.

Measuring Secondhand Smoke in Muscat, Oman.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to measure exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) and assess venue compliance with the municipal Law against smoking indoors in public places in Muscat, Oman. METHODS: Following the selection of 30 public indoor venues within the Muscat governorate, the concentration of suspended SHS particulate matter (PM2.5) in the venues' indoor air was measured throughout July and August 2010. RESULTS: Almost all of the venues were found to be compliant with the smoke-free municipal, with the exception of a café that served waterpipes for smoking indoors. The concentration of PM2.5 in this venue showed an average level of 256 µg/m(3) which was 64 times the level of that found in the non-smoking venues. CONCLUSION: Aside from one café, the majority of the assessed indoor public venues abided by the smoke-free municipal law. However, the enforcement of policies banning smoking in indoor public recreational venues should be re-examined in order to protect member of the public in Oman from exposure to SHS.