Development of a clinical risk score to predict death in patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To build a clinical risk score to aid risk stratification among hospitalised COVID-19 patients. METHODS: The score was built using data of 417 consecutive COVID-19 in patients from Kuwait. Risk factors for COVID-19 mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regressions and assigned weighted points proportional to their beta coefficient values. A final score was obtained for each patient and tested against death to calculate an Receiver-operating characteristic curve. Youden's index was used to determine the cut-off value for death prediction risk. The score was internally validated using another COVID-19 Kuwaiti-patient cohort of 923 patients. External validation was carried out using 178 patients from the Italian CoViDiab cohort. RESULTS: Deceased COVID-19 patients more likely showed glucose levels of 7.0-11.1 mmol/L (34.4%, p < 0.0001) or >11.1 mmol/L (44.3%, p < 0.0001), and comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension compared to those who survived (39.3% vs. 20.4% [p = 0.0027] and 45.9% vs. 26.6% [p = 0.0036], respectively). The risk factors for in-hospital mortality in the final model were gender, nationality, asthma, and glucose categories (<5.0, 5.5-6.9, 7.0-11.1, or 11.1 > mmol/L). A score of ≥5.5 points predicted death with 75% sensitivity and 86.3% specificity (area under the curve (AUC) 0.901). Internal validation resulted in an AUC of 0.826, and external validation showed an AUC of 0.687. CONCLUSION: This clinical risk score was built with easy-to-collect data and had good probability of predicting in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients.

Previous COVID-19 Infection and Antibody Levels After Vaccination.

Background: The emergence of new COVID-19 variants of concern coupled with a global inequity in vaccine access and distribution has prompted many public health authorities to circumvent the vaccine shortages by altering vaccination protocols and prioritizing persons at high risk. Individuals with previous COVID-19 infection may not have been prioritized due to existing humoral immunity. Objective: We aimed to study the association between previous COVID-19 infection and antibody levels after COVID-19 vaccination. Methods: A serological analysis to measure SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin (Ig)G, IgA, and neutralizing antibodies was performed on individuals who received one or two doses of either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 vaccines in Kuwait. A Student t-test was performed and followed by generalized linear regression models adjusted for individual characteristics and comorbidities were fitted to compare the average levels of IgG and neutralizing antibodies between vaccinated individuals with and without previous COVID-19 infection. Results: A total of 1,025 individuals were recruited. The mean levels of IgG, IgA, and neutralizing antibodies were higher in vaccinated subjects with previous COVID-19 infections than in those without previous infection. Regression analysis showed a steeper slope of decline for IgG and neutralizing antibodies in vaccinated individuals without previous COVID-19 infection compared to those with previous COVID-19 infection. Conclusion: Previous COVID-19 infection appeared to elicit robust and sustained levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in vaccinated individuals. Given the inconsistent supply of COVID-19 vaccines in many countries due to inequities in global distribution, our results suggest that even greater efforts should be made to vaccinate more people, especially individuals without previous COVID-19 infection.

The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait.

Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden. Methods: We use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the first wave of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We calibrate our model by using a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We simulate trajectories of model forecasts and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers. Results: Our results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness. Conclusion: Strict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning.

The effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in different socioeconomic populations in Kuwait: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The extent to which these interventions are successful in stopping the spread have not been characterized in countries with distinct socioeconomic groups. We compared the effects of a partial lockdown on disease transmission among Kuwaitis (P1) and non-Kuwaitis (P2) living in Kuwait. METHODS: We fit a modified metapopulation SEIR transmission model to reported cases stratified by two groups to estimate the impact of a partial lockdown on the effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]). We estimated the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) for the transmission in each group and simulated the potential trajectories of an outbreak from the first recorded case of community transmission until 12 days after the partial lockdown. We estimated [Formula: see text] values of both groups before and after the partial curfew, simulated the effect of these values on the epidemic curves and explored a range of cross-transmission scenarios. RESULTS: We estimate [Formula: see text] at 1·08 (95% CI: 1·00-1·26) for P1 and 2·36 (2·03-2·71) for P2. On March 22nd, [Formula: see text] for P1 and P2 are estimated at 1·19 (1·04-1·34) and 1·75 (1·26-2·11) respectively. After the partial curfew had taken effect, [Formula: see text] for P1 dropped modestly to 1·05 (0·82-1·26) but almost doubled for P2 to 2·89 (2·30-3·70). Our simulated epidemic trajectories show that the partial curfew measure greatly reduced and delayed the height of the peak in P1, yet significantly elevated and hastened the peak in P2. Modest cross-transmission between P1 and P2 greatly elevated the height of the peak in P1 and brought it forward in time closer to the peak of P2. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate and quantify how the same lockdown intervention can accentuate disease transmission in some subpopulations while potentially controlling it in others. Any such control may further become compromised in the presence of cross-transmission between subpopulations. Future interventions and policies need to be sensitive to socioeconomic and health disparities.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus in Kuwait.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has a highly variable clinical presentation, ranging from asymptomatic to severe respiratory symptoms and death. Diabetes seems to be one of the main comorbidities contributing to a worse COVID-19 outcome. OBJECTIVE: In here we analyze the clinical characteristics and outcomes of diabetic COVID-19 patients Kuwait. METHODS: In this single-center, retrospective study of 417 consecutive COVID-19 patients, we analyze and compare disease severity, outcome, associated complications, and clinical laboratory findings between diabetic and non-diabetic COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: COVID-19 patients with diabetes had more ICU admission than non-diabetic COVID-19 patients (20.1% vs. 16.8%, p < 0.001). Diabetic COVID-19 patients also recorded higher mortality in comparison to non-diabetic COVID-19 patients (16.7% vs. 12.1%, p < 0.001). Diabetic COVID-19 patients had significantly higher prevalence of comorbidities, such as hypertension. Laboratory investigations also highlighted notably higher levels of C-reactive protein in diabetic COVID019 patients and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. They also showed a higher incidence of complications. logistic regression analysis showed that every 1 mmol/L increase in fasting blood glucose in COVID-19 patients is associated with 1.52 (95% CI: 1.34-1.72, p < 0.001) times the odds of dying from COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Diabetes is a major contributor to worsening outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Understanding the pathophysiology underlining these findings could provide insight into better management and improved outcome of such cases.

The importance of capillary distribution in supporting muscle function, building on Krogh's seminal ideas.

Krogh's Nobel prize for insightful studies into the physiology of capillaries heralded a revolution in understanding that continues today. The view of passive conduits has been replaced by capillaries recognised as a key element in haemodynamic control, offering both a site where changes in tissue demand are sensed and a driver of integrated vascular responses. In addition, the capillary bed is known to play an important role in metabolic, hormonal and immune homeostasis. Not surprisingly, therefore, microvascular dysfunction is a hallmark of many central and peripheral diseases, leading to widespread morbidity and mortality. Consequently, there is growing interest in how best to specifically target this organ-system by means of effective angiotherapies. Underpinning a lot of our current understanding of capillary physiology has been a recognition of functional heterogeneity among different microvascular beds. In addition, there is increasing awareness of the role that spatial heterogeneity plays in determining both physiological and pathological outcomes that has led to an appreciation that quality, rather than just quantity of microvascular supply is important. This has required a re-appraisal of the methods used to determine both the extent and topology of the capillary network, with the benefit of facilitating new ways of exploring dynamic regulation of capillary supply and its potential consequences.

Distinct structural and functional angiogenic responses are induced by different mechanical stimuli.

OBJECTIVE: Adequacy of the microcirculation is essential for maintaining repetitive skeletal muscle function while avoiding fatigue. It is unclear, however, whether capillary remodelling after different angiogenic stimuli is comparable in terms of vessel distribution and consequent functional adaptations. We determined the physiological consequences of two distinct mechanotransductive stimuli: (1) overload-mediated abluminal stretch (OV); (2) vasodilator-induced shear stress (prazosin, PR). METHODS: In situ EDL fatigue resistance was determined after 7 or 14 days of intervention, in addition to measurements of femoral artery flow. Microvascular composition (muscle histology) and oxidative capacity (citrate synthase activity) were quantified, and muscle PO2 calculated using advanced mathematical modelling. RESULTS: Compared to controls, capillary-to-fiber ratio was higher after OV14 (134%, p < .001) and PR14 (121%, p < .05), although fatigue resistance only improved after overload (7 days: 135%, 14 days: 125%, p < .05). In addition, muscle overload improved local capillary supply indices and reduced CS activity, while prazosin treatment failed to alter either index of aerobic capacity. CONCLUSION: Targeted capillary growth in response to abluminal stretch is a potent driver of improved muscle fatigue resistance, while shear stress-driven angiogenesis has no beneficial effect on muscle function. In terms of capillarity, more is not necessarily better.

Outcomes of COVID-19: Disparities by ethnicity.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the role of ethnicity in COVID-19 outcome disparities in a cohort in Kuwait. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of 405 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Kuwait. Outcomes such as symptoms severity and mortality were considered. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to report the odds ratios (OR) for ICU admission and dying from COVID-19. RESULTS: The cohort included 290 Arabs and 115 South Asians. South Asians recorded significantly higher COVID-19 death rates compared to Arabs (33% vs. 7.6%, P value<0.001). When compared to Arabs, South Asians also had higher odds of being admitted to the ICU (OR = 6.28, 95% CI: 3.34-11.80, p < 0.001). South Asian patients showed 7.62 (95% CI: 3.62-16.02, p < 0.001) times the odds of dying from COVID-19. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 patients with South Asians ethnicity in Kuwait are more likely to have worse prognosis and outcome when compared to patients with Arab ethnicity. This suggest a possible role for ethnicity in COVID-19 outcome disparities and this role is likely to be multifactorial.

Fasting Blood Glucose and COVID-19 Severity: Nonlinearity Matters.

OBJECTIVE: Fasting blood glucose (FBG) could be an independent predictor for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity and mortality. However, when included as a predictor in a model, it is conventionally modeled linearly, dichotomously, or categorically. We comprehensively examined different ways of modeling FBG to assess the risk of being admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Utilizing COVID-19 data from Kuwait, we fitted conventional approaches to modeling FBG as well as a nonlinear estimation using penalized splines. RESULTS: For 417 patients, the conventional linear, dichotomous, and categorical approaches to modeling FBG missed key trends in the exposure-response relationship. A nonlinear estimation showed a steep slope until about 10 mmol/L before flattening. CONCLUSIONS: Our results argue for strict glucose management on admission. Even a small incremental increase within the normal range of FBG was associated with a substantial increase in risk of ICU admission for COVID-19 patients.

Integrated method for quantitative morphometry and oxygen transport modeling in striated muscle.

Identifying structural limitations in O2 transport is primarily restricted by current methods employed to characterize the nature of physiological remodeling. Inadequate resolution or breadth of available data has impaired development of routine diagnostic protocols and effective therapeutic strategies. Understanding O2 transport within striated muscle faces major challenges, most notably in quantifying how well individual fibers are supplied by the microcirculation, which has necessitated exploring tissue O2 supply using theoretical modeling of diffusive exchange. With capillary domains identified as a suitable model for the description of local O2 supply and requiring less computation than numerically calculating the trapping regions that are supplied by each capillary via biophysical transport models, we sought to design a high-throughput method for histological analysis. We present an integrated package that identifies optimal protocols for identification of important input elements, processing of digitized images with semiautomated routines, and incorporation of these data into a mathematical modeling framework with computed output visualized as the tissue partial pressure of O2 (Po2) distribution across a biopsy sample. Worked examples are provided using muscle samples from experiments involving rats and humans. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Progress in quantitative morphometry and analytical modeling has tended to develop independently. Real diagnostic power lies in harnessing both disciplines within one user-friendly package. We present a semiautomated, high-throughput tool for determining muscle phenotype from biopsy material, which also provides anatomically relevant input to quantify tissue oxygenation, in a coherent package not previously available to nonspecialist investigators.

Changes to both cardiac metabolism and performance accompany acute reductions in functional capillary supply.

BACKGROUND: The relative importance of arteriole supply or ability to switch between substrates to preserve cardiac performance is currently unclear, but may be critically important in conditions such as diabetes. METHODS: Metabolism of substrates was measured before and after infusion of polystyrene microspheres in the perfused working heart to mimic random capillary loss due to microvascular disease. The effect of acute loss of functional capillary supply on palmitate and glucose metabolism together with function was quantified, and theoretical tissue oxygen distribution calculated from histological samples and ventricular VO(2) estimated. RESULTS: Microsphere infusion led to a dose-dependent decrease in rate-pressure product (RPP) and oxygen consumption (P<0.001). Microsphere infusion also increased work/unit oxygen consumption of hearts ('efficiency') by 25% (P<0.01). When corrected for cardiac work palmitate oxidation remained tightly coupled to very low workloads (RPP<2500 mmHg/min), illustrating a high degree of metabolic control. Arteriole occlusion by microspheres decreased the density of patent capillaries (P<0.001) and correspondingly increased the average capillary supply area by 40% (P<0.01). Calculated rates of oxygen consumption declined from 16.6±7.2 ml/100 ml/min to 12.4±9 ml/100 ml/min following arteriole occlusion, coupled with increases in size of regions of myocardial hypoxia (Control=22.0% vs. Microspheres=42.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac mechanical performance is very sensitive to arteriolar blockade, but metabolite switching from fatty acid to glucose utilisation may also support cardiac function in regions of declining PO(2). GENERAL SIGNIFICANCE: Preserving functional capillary supply may be critical for maintenance of cardiac function when metabolic flexibility is lost, as in diabetes.

Modelling capillary oxygen supply capacity in mixed muscles: capillary domains revisited.

Developing effective therapeutic interventions for pathological conditions associated with abnormal oxygen transport to muscle fibres critically depends on the objective characterisation of capillarity. Local indices of capillary supply have the potential to identify the onset of fine-scale tissue pathologies and dysregulation. Detailed tissue geometry, such as muscle fibre size, has been incorporated into such measures by considering the distribution of Voronoi polygons (VP) generated from planar capillary locations as a representation of capillary supply regions. Previously, detailed simulations have predicted that this is generally accurate for muscle tissue with uniform oxygen uptake. Here we extend this modelling framework to heterogeneous muscle for the assessment of capillary supply capacity under maximal sustainable oxygen consumption. We demonstrate for muscle with heterogeneous fibre properties that VP theoretically provide a computationally simple but often accurate representation of trapping regions (TR), which are predicted from biophysical transport models to represent the areas of tissue supplied by individual capillaries. However, this use of VP may become less accurate around large fibres, and at the interface of fibres of largely different oxidative capacities. In such cases, TR may provide a more robust representation of capillary supply regions. Additionally, given VP can only approximate oxygen delivery by capillaries, we show that their generally close relationship to TR suggests that (1) fibre type distribution may be tightly regulated to avoid large fibres with high oxidative capacities, (2) the anatomical fibre distribution is also tightly regulated to prevent a large surface area of interaction between metabolically dissimilar fibres, and (3) in chronically hypoxic tissues capillary distribution is more important in determining oxygen supply than the spatial heterogeneity of fibre demand.