Pooling controls from nested case-control studies with the proportional risks model.

The standard approach to regression modeling for cause-specific hazards with prospective competing risks data specifies separate models for each failure type. An alternative proposed by Lunn and McNeil (1995) assumes the cause-specific hazards are proportional across causes. This may be more efficient than the standard approach, and allows the comparison of covariate effects across causes. In this paper, we extend Lunn and McNeil (1995) to nested case-control studies, accommodating scenarios with additional matching and non-proportionality. We also consider the case where data for different causes are obtained from different studies conducted in the same cohort. It is demonstrated that while only modest gains in efficiency are possible in full cohort analyses, substantial gains may be attained in nested case-control analyses for failure types that are relatively rare. Extensive simulation studies are conducted and real data analyses are provided using the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) study.

Plant and Animal Fat Intake and Overall and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality.

Importance: The impact of dietary fat intake on long-term human health has attracted substantial research interest, and the health effects of diverse dietary fats depend on available food sources. Yet there is a paucity of data elucidating the links between dietary fats from specific food sources and health. Objective: To study associations of dietary plant and animal fat intake with overall mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This large prospective cohort study took place in the US from 1995 to 2019. The analysis of men and women was conducted in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. Data were analyzed from February 2021 to May 2024. Exposures: Specific food sources of dietary fats and other dietary information were collected at baseline, using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs) and 24-year adjusted absolute risk differences (ARDs) were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: The analysis included 407 531 men and women (231 881 [56.9%] male; the mean [SD] age of the cohort was 61.2 [5.4] years). During 8 107 711 person-years of follow-up, 185 111 deaths were ascertained, including 58 526 CVD deaths. After multivariable adjustment (including adjustment for the relevant food sources), a greater intake of plant fat (HRs, 0.91 and 0.86; adjusted ARDs, -1.10% and -0.73%; P for trend < .001), particularly fat from grains (HRs, 0.92 and 0.86; adjusted ARDs, -0.98% and -0.71%; P for trend < .001) and vegetable oils (HRs, 0.88 and 0.85; adjusted ARDs, -1.40% and -0.71%; P for trend < .001), was associated with a lower risk for overall and CVD mortality, respectively, comparing the highest to the lowest quintile. In contrast, a higher intake of total animal fat (HRs, 1.16 and 1.14; adjusted ARDs, 0.78% and 0.32%; P for trend < .001), dairy fat (HRs, 1.09 and 1.07; adjusted ARDs, 0.86% and 0.24%; P for trend < .001), or egg fat (HRs, 1.13 and 1.16; adjusted ARDs, 1.40% and 0.82%; P for trend < .001) was associated with an increased risk for mortality for overall and CVD mortality, respectively, comparing the highest to the lowest quintile. Replacement of 5% energy from animal fat with 5% energy from plant fat, particularly fat from grains or vegetable oils, was associated with a lower risk for mortality: 4% to 24% reduction in overall mortality, and 5% to 30% reduction in CVD mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings from this prospective cohort study demonstrated consistent but small inverse associations between a higher intake of plant fat, particularly fat from grains and vegetable oils, and a lower risk for both overall and CVD mortality. A diet with a high intake of animal-based fat, including fat from dairy foods and eggs, was also shown to be associated with an elevated risk for both overall and CVD mortality.

Disentangling discordant vitamin D associations with prostate cancer incidence and fatality in a large, nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Published analyses of prostate cancer nested case-control and survival data in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study cohort suggested that men with higher baseline vitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations have both (i) increased prostate cancer risk and (ii) decreased prostate cancer-specific fatality. METHODS: To investigate possible factors responsible for a spurious association with prostate cancer fatality, we reanalysed baseline serum vitamin D associations with prostate cancer risk and prostate cancer-specific fatality in case-control data nested within the ATBC Study (1000 controls and 1000 incident prostate cancer cases). Conditional logistic regression and Cox proportion hazard models were used, respectively, to estimate odds ratios for risk and hazard ratios for prostate cancer-specific fatality, overall and by disease aggressiveness. We replicated these case-control analyses using baseline serum measurements of alpha-tocopherol (vitamin E), beta-carotene and retinol (vitamin A), and used the entire ATBC Study cohort (n = 29 085) to estimate marginal associations between these baseline vitamins and prostate cancer incidence and fatality following blood collection. RESULTS: Vitamin D analyses agreed closely with those originally published, with opposite risk and fatality associations. By contrast, the analyses of alpha-tocopherol, beta-carotene and retinol yielded concordant associations for prostate cancer incidence and prostate cancer-specific fatality. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of neither artefacts in the nested prostate cancer case-control data set nor detection or collider biases in the fatality analyses. The present findings therefore support a valid inverse (i.e. beneficial) association between vitamin D and prostate cancer-specific survival that warrants further evaluation, including possibly in controlled trials.

Evaluation of risk prediction models to select lung cancer screening participants in Europe: a prospective cohort consortium analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer risk prediction models might efficiently identify individuals who should be offered lung cancer screening. However, their performance has not been comprehensively evaluated in Europe. We aimed to externally validate and evaluate the performance of several risk prediction models that predict lung cancer incidence or mortality in prospective European cohorts. METHODS: We analysed 240 137 participants aged 45-80 years with a current or former smoking history from nine European countries in four prospective cohorts from the pooled database of the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium: the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study (Finland), the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (Norway), CONSTANCES (France), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Denmark, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Norway). We evaluated ten lung cancer risk models, which comprised the Bach, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial 2012 model (PLCOm2012), the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (LCRAT), the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT), the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), the Optimized Early Warning Model for Lung Cancer Risk (OWL), the University College London-Death (UCLD), the University College London-Incidence (UCLI), the Liverpool Lung Project version 2 (LLP version 2), and the Liverpool Lung Project version 3 (LLP version 3) models. We quantified model calibration as the ratio of expected to observed cases or deaths and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). For each model, we also identified risk thresholds that would screen the same number of individuals as each of the US Preventive Services Task Force 2021 (USPSTF-2021), the US Preventive Services Task Force 2013 (USPSTF-2013), and the Nederlands-Leuvens Longkanker Screenings Onderzoek (NELSON) criteria. FINDINGS: Among the participants, 1734 lung cancer cases and 1072 lung cancer deaths occurred within five years of enrolment. Most models had reasonable calibration in most countries, although the LLP version 2 overpredicted risk by more than 50% in eight countries (expected to observed ≥1·50). The PLCOm2012, LCDRAT, LCRAT, Bach, HUNT, OWL, UCLD, and UCLI models showed similar discrimination in most countries, with AUCs ranging from 0·68 (95% CI 0·59-0·77) to 0·83 (0·78-0·89), whereas the LLP version 2 and LLP version 3 showed lower discrimination, with AUCs ranging from 0·64 (95% CI 0·57-0·72) to 0·78 (0·74-0·83). When pooling data from all countries (but excluding the HUNT cohort), 33·9% (73 313 of 216 387) of individuals were eligible by USPSTF-2021 criteria, which included 74·8% (1185) of lung cancers and 76·3% (730) of lung cancer deaths occurring over 5 years. Fewer individuals were selected by USPSTF-2013 and NELSON criteria. After applying thresholds to select a population of equal size to USPSTF-2021, the PLCOm2012, LCDRAT, LCRAT, Bach, HUNT, OWL, UCLD, and UCLI, models identified 77·6%-79·1% of future cases, although they selected slightly older individuals compared with USPSTF-2021 criteria. Results were similar for USPSTF-2013 and NELSON. INTERPRETATION: Several lung cancer risk prediction models showed good performance in European countries and might improve the efficiency of lung cancer screening if used in place of categorical eligibility criteria. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute, l'Institut National du Cancer, Cancer Research UK.

Plasma metabolites in childhood Burkitt lymphoma cases and cancer-free controls in Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is an aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma associated with Plasmodium falciparum and Epstein-Barr virus, both of which affect metabolic pathways. The metabolomic patterns of BL is unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We measured 627 metabolites in pre-chemotherapy treatment plasma samples from 25 male children (6-11 years) with BL and 25 cancer-free area- and age-frequency-matched male controls from the Epidemiology of Burkitt Lymphoma in East African Children and Minors study in Uganda using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Unconditional, age-adjusted logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the BL association with 1-standard deviation increase in the log-metabolite concentration, adjusting for multiple comparisons using false discovery rate (FDR) thresholds and Bonferroni correction. RESULTS: Compared to controls, levels for 42 metabolite concentrations differed in BL cases (FDR < 0.001), including triacylglyceride (18:0_38:6), alpha-aminobutyric acid (AABA), ceramide (d18:1/20:0), phosphatidylcholine ae C40:6 and phosphatidylcholine C38:6 as the top signals associated with BL (ORs = 6.9 to 14.7, P < 2.4✕10- 4). Two metabolites (triacylglyceride (18:0_38:6) and AABA) selected using stepwise logistic regression discriminated BL cases from controls with an area under the curve of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.00). CONCLUSION: Our findings warrant further examination of plasma metabolites as potential biomarkers for BL risk/diagnosis.

Genome-Wide Analysis to Assess if Heavy Alcohol Consumption Modifies the Association between SNPs and Pancreatic Cancer Risk.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death globally. Risk factors for pancreatic cancer include common genetic variants and potentially heavy alcohol consumption. We assessed if genetic variants modify the association between heavy alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide interaction analysis of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) by heavy alcohol consumption (more than three drinks per day) for pancreatic cancer in European ancestry populations from genome-wide association studies. Our analysis included 3,707 cases and 4,167 controls from case-control studies and 1,098 cases and 1,162 controls from cohort studies. Fixed-effect meta-analyses were conducted. RESULTS: A potential novel region of association on 10p11.22, lead SNP rs7898449 (interaction P value (Pinteraction) = 5.1 × 10-8 in the meta-analysis; Pinteraction = 2.1 × 10-9 in the case-control studies; Pinteraction = 0.91 in the cohort studies), was identified. An SNP correlated with this lead SNP is an expression quantitative trait locus for the neuropilin 1 gene. Of the 17 genomic regions with genome-wide significant evidence of association with pancreatic cancer in prior studies, we observed suggestive evidence that heavy alcohol consumption modified the association for one SNP near LINC00673, rs11655237 on 17q25.1 (Pinteraction = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a novel genomic region that may be associated with pancreatic cancer risk in conjunction with heavy alcohol consumption located near an expression quantitative trait locus for neuropilin 1, a protein that plays an important role in the development and progression of pancreatic cancer. IMPACT: This work can provide insights into the etiology of pancreatic cancer, particularly in heavy drinkers.

Association of tea and coffee consumption and biliary tract cancer risk: The Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Tea and coffee are widely consumed beverages worldwide. We evaluated their association with biliary tract cancer (BTC) incidence. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We pooled data from 15 studies in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to evaluate associations between tea and coffee consumption and biliary tract cancer development. We categorized participants as nondrinkers (0 cup/day), moderate drinkers (>0 and <3 cups/day), and heavy drinkers (≥3 cups/day). We estimated multivariable HRs and 95% CIs using Cox models. During 29,911,744 person-years of follow-up, 851 gallbladder, 588 intrahepatic bile duct, 753 extrahepatic bile duct, and 458 ampulla of Vater cancer cases were diagnosed. Individuals who drank tea showed a statistically significantly lower incidence rate of gallbladder cancer (GBC) relative to tea nondrinkers (HR=0.77; 95% CI, 0.64-0.91), and intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC) had an inverse association (HR=0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-1.00). However, no associations were observed for extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC) or ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC). In contrast, coffee consumption was positively associated with GBC, with a higher incidence rate for individuals consuming more coffee (HR<3 cups/day =1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.66; HR≥3 cups/day =1.49; 95% CI, 1.11-1.99, Ptrend=0.01) relative to coffee nondrinkers. However, there was no association between coffee consumption and GBC when restricted to coffee drinkers. There was little evidence of associations between coffee consumption and other biliary tract cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Tea consumption was associated with a lower incidence of GBC and possibly IHBDC. Further research is warranted to replicate the observed positive association between coffee and GBC.

Identification of potential mediators of the relationship between body mass index and colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third-most-common cancer worldwide and its rates are increasing. Elevated body mass index (BMI) is an established risk factor for CRC, although the molecular mechanisms behind this association remain unclear. Using the Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we aimed to investigate the mediating effects of putative biomarkers and other CRC risk factors in the association between BMI and CRC. METHODS: We selected as mediators biomarkers of established cancer-related mechanisms and other CRC risk factors for which a plausible association with obesity exists, such as inflammatory biomarkers, glucose homeostasis traits, lipids, adipokines, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), sex hormones, 25-hydroxy-vitamin D, smoking, physical activity (PA) and alcohol consumption. We used inverse-variance weighted MR in the main univariable analyses and performed sensitivity analyses (weighted-median, MR-Egger, Contamination Mixture). We used multivariable MR for the mediation analyses. RESULTS: Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with CRC risk [odds ratio per SD (5 kg/m2) = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08-1.24, P-value = 1.4 × 10-5] and robustly associated with nearly all potential mediators. Genetically predicted IGF1, fasting insulin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, PA and alcohol were associated with CRC risk. Evidence for attenuation was found for IGF1 [explained 7% (95% CI: 2-13%) of the association], smoking (31%, 4-57%) and PA (7%, 2-11%). There was little evidence for pleiotropy, although smoking was bidirectionally associated with BMI and instruments were weak for PA. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of BMI on CRC risk is possibly partly mediated through plasma IGF1, whereas the attenuation of the BMI-CRC association by smoking and PA may reflect confounding and shared underlying mechanisms rather than mediation.

Genome-wide interaction study of dietary intake of fibre, fruits, and vegetables with risk of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of fibre, fruits and vegetables have been linked with lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. A genome-wide gene-environment (G × E) analysis was performed to test whether genetic variants modify these associations. METHODS: A pooled sample of 45 studies including up to 69,734 participants (cases: 29,896; controls: 39,838) of European ancestry were included. To identify G × E interactions, we used the traditional 1--degree-of-freedom (DF) G × E test and to improve power a 2-step procedure and a 3DF joint test that investigates the association between a genetic variant and dietary exposure, CRC risk and G × E interaction simultaneously. FINDINGS: The 3-DF joint test revealed two significant loci with p-value <5 × 10-8. Rs4730274 close to the SLC26A3 gene showed an association with fibre (p-value: 2.4 × 10-3) and G × fibre interaction with CRC (OR per quartile of fibre increase = 0.87, 0.80, and 0.75 for CC, TC, and TT genotype, respectively; G × E p-value: 1.8 × 10-7). Rs1620977 in the NEGR1 gene showed an association with fruit intake (p-value: 1.0 × 10-8) and G × fruit interaction with CRC (OR per quartile of fruit increase = 0.75, 0.65, and 0.56 for AA, AG, and GG genotype, respectively; G × E -p-value: 0.029). INTERPRETATION: We identified 2 loci associated with fibre and fruit intake that also modify the association of these dietary factors with CRC risk. Potential mechanisms include chronic inflammatory intestinal disorders, and gut function. However, further studies are needed for mechanistic validation and replication of findings. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute. Full funding details for the individual consortia are provided in acknowledgments.

Two genome-wide interaction loci modify the association of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs with colorectal cancer.

Regular, long-term aspirin use may act synergistically with genetic variants, particularly those in mechanistically relevant pathways, to confer a protective effect on colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. We leveraged pooled data from 52 clinical trial, cohort, and case-control studies that included 30,806 CRC cases and 41,861 controls of European ancestry to conduct a genome-wide interaction scan between regular aspirin/nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use and imputed genetic variants. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, we identified statistically significant interactions between regular aspirin/NSAID use and variants in 6q24.1 (top hit rs72833769), which has evidence of influencing expression of TBC1D7 (a subunit of the TSC1-TSC2 complex, a key regulator of MTOR activity), and variants in 5p13.1 (top hit rs350047), which is associated with expression of PTGER4 (codes a cell surface receptor directly involved in the mode of action of aspirin). Genetic variants with functional impact may modulate the chemopreventive effect of regular aspirin use, and our study identifies putative previously unidentified targets for additional mechanistic interrogation.

Dietary Fiber Intake and Risk of Advanced and Aggressive Forms of Prostate Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of 15 Prospective Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of an association between dietary fiber intake and risk of advanced and aggressive forms of prostate cancer (PC) and PC mortality is limited. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine associations between intakes of dietary fiber overall and by food source and risk of advanced and aggressive forms of PC. DESIGN: The study design was a pooled analysis of the primary data from 15 cohorts in 3 continents. Baseline dietary fiber intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire or diet history in each study. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: There were 842 149 men followed for up to 9 to 22 years between 1985 and 2009 across studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measures were advanced (stage T4, N1, or M1 or PC mortality), advanced restricted (excluded men with missing stage and those with localized PC who died of PC), and high-grade PC (Gleason score ≥8 or poorly differentiated/undifferentiated) and PC mortality. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PERFORMED: Study-specific multivariable hazard ratios (MVHR) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and pooled using random effects models. RESULTS: Intake of dietary fiber overall, from fruits, and from vegetables was not associated with risk of advanced (n = 4863), advanced restricted (n = 2978), or high-grade PC (n = 9673) or PC mortality (n = 3097). Dietary fiber intake from grains was inversely associated with advanced PC (comparing the highest vs lowest quintile, MVHR 0.84; 95% CI 0.76-0.93), advanced restricted PC (MVHR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74-0.97), and PC mortality (MVHR 0.78; 95% CI 0.68-0.89); statistically significant trends were noted for each of these associations (P ≤ .03), and a null association was observed for high-grade PC for the same comparison (MVHR 1.00; 95% CI 0.93-1.07). The comparable results were 1.06 (95% CI 1.01-1.10; P value, test for trend = .002) for localized PC (n = 35,199) and 1.05 (95% CI 0.99-1.11; P value, test for trend = .04) for low/intermediate grade PC (n = 34 366). CONCLUSIONS: Weak nonsignificant associations were observed between total dietary fiber intake and risk of advanced forms of PC, high-grade PC, and PC mortality. High dietary fiber intake from grains was associated with a modestly lower risk of advanced forms of PC and PC mortality.

Sex hormones and risk of lung and colorectal cancers in women: a Mendelian randomization study.

The roles of sex hormones such as estradiol, testosterone, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in the etiology of lung and colorectal cancers in women, among the most common cancers after breast cancer, are unclear. This Mendelian randomization (MR) study evaluated such potential causal associations in women of European ancestry. We used summary statistics data from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on sex hormones and from the Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study and large consortia on cancers. There was suggestive evidence of genetically predicted 1-standard deviation increase in total testosterone levels being associated with a lower risk of lung non-adenocarcinoma (hazard ratio (HR) 0.60, 95% CI 0.37-0.98) in the HUNT Study. However, this was not confirmed by using data from a larger consortium. In general, we did not find convincing evidence to support a causal role of sex hormones on risk of lung and colorectal cancers in women of European ancestry.

Fiber and whole grain intakes in relation to liver cancer risk: An analysis in 2 prospective cohorts and systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The association between fiber or whole grain intakes and the risk of liver cancer remains unclear. We assessed the associations between fiber or whole grain intakes and liver cancer risk among 2 prospective studies, and systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed these results with published prospective studies. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 111,396 participants from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and 26,085 men from the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study were included. Intakes of total fiber and whole grains were estimated from validated food frequency questionnaires. Study-specific HRs and 95% CI with liver cancer risk were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. We systematically reviewed existing literature, and studies were combined in a dose-response meta-analysis. A total of 277 (median follow-up = 15.6 y) and 165 (median follow-up = 16.0 y) cases of liver cancer were observed in Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial and Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study, respectively. Dietary fiber was inversely associated with liver cancer risk in Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (HR 10g/day : 0.69; 95% CI: 0.55-0.86). No significant associations were observed between whole grain intakes and liver cancer risk in either study. Our meta-analysis included 2383 incident liver cancer cases (7 prospective cohorts) for fiber intake and 1523 cases (5 prospective cohorts) for whole grain intake; combined HRs for liver cancer risk were 0.83 (0.76-0.91) per 10 g/day of fiber and 0.92 (0.85-0.99) per 16 g/day (1 serving) of whole grains. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary fiber and whole grains were inversely associated with liver cancer risk. Further research exploring potential mechanisms and different fiber types is needed.

Sex-specific associations between sodium and potassium intake and overall and cause-specific mortality: a large prospective U.S. cohort study, systematic review, and updated meta-analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The impact of sodium intake on cardiovascular disease (CVD) health and mortality has been studied for decades, including the well-established association with blood pressure. However, non-linear patterns, dose-response associations, and sex differences in the relationship between sodium and potassium intakes and overall and cause-specific mortality remain to be elucidated and a comprehensive examination is lacking. Our study objective was to determine whether intake of sodium and potassium and the sodium-potassium ratio are associated with overall and cause-specific mortality in men and women. METHODS: We conducted a prospective analysis of 237,036 men and 179,068 women in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were utilized to calculate hazard ratios. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was also conducted. RESULTS: During 6,009,748 person-years of follow-up, there were 77,614 deaths, 49,297 among men and 28,317 among women. Adjusting for other risk factors, we found a significant positive association between higher sodium intake (≥ 2,000 mg/d) and increased overall and CVD mortality (overall mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, men and women HRs = 1.06 and 1.10, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001; CVD mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, HRs = 1.07 and 1.21, Pnonlinearity = 0.0002 and 0.01). Higher potassium intake and a lower sodium-potassium ratio were associated with a reduced mortality, with women showing stronger associations (overall mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, HRs for potassium = 0.96 and 0.82, and HRs for the sodium-potassium ratio = 1.09 and 1.23, for men and women, respectively; Pnonlinearity < 0.05 and both P for interaction ≤ 0.0006). The overall mortality associations with intake of sodium, potassium and the sodium-potassium ratio were generally similar across population risk factor subgroups with the exception that the inverse potassium-mortality association was stronger in men with lower body mass index or fruit consumption (Pinteraction < 0.0004). The updated meta-analysis of cohort studies based on 42 risk estimates, 2,085,904 participants, and 80,085 CVD events yielded very similar results (highest versus lowest sodium categories, pooled relative risk for CVD events = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.20; Pnonlinearity < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates significant positive associations between daily sodium intake (within the range of sodium intake between 2,000 and 7,500 mg/d), the sodium-potassium ratio, and risk of CVD and overall mortality, with women having stronger sodium-potassium ratio-mortality associations than men, and with the meta-analysis providing compelling support for the CVD associations. These data may suggest decreasing sodium intake and increasing potassium intake as means to improve health and longevity, and our data pointing to a sex difference in the potassium-mortality and sodium-potassium ratio-mortality relationships provide additional evidence relevant to current dietary guidelines for the general adult population. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO Identifier: CRD42022331618.

A prospective study of smoking-related white blood cell DNA methylation markers and risk of bladder cancer.

Bladder cancer, a common neoplasm, is primarily caused by tobacco smoking. Epigenetic alterations including DNA methylation have the potential to be used as prospective markers of increased risk, particularly in at-risk populations such as smokers. We aimed to investigate the potential of smoking-related white blood cell (WBC) methylation markers to contribute to an increase in bladder cancer risk prediction over classical questionnaire-based smoking metrics (i.e., duration, intensity, packyears) in a nested case-control study within the prospective prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial and the alpha-tocopherol, beta-carotene cancer (ATBC) Prevention Study (789 cases; 849 controls). We identified 200 differentially methylated sites associated with smoking status and 28 significantly associated (after correction for multiple testing) with bladder cancer risk among 2670 previously reported smoking-related cytosine-phosphate-guanines sites (CpGs). Similar patterns were observed across cohorts. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses indicated that cg05575921 (AHHR), the strongest smoking-related association we identified for bladder cancer risk, alone yielded similar predictive performance (AUC: 0.60) than classical smoking metrics (AUC: 0.59-0.62). Best prediction was achieved by including the first principal component (PC1) from the 200 smoking-related CpGs alongside smoking metrics (AUC: 0.63-0.65). Further, PC1 remained significantly associated with elevated bladder cancer risk after adjusting for smoking metrics. These findings suggest DNA methylation profiles reflect aspects of tobacco smoke exposure in addition to those captured by smoking duration, intensity and packyears, and/or individual susceptibility relevant to bladder cancer etiology, warranting further investigation.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. METHODS: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. INTERPRETATION: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Helicobacter hepaticus and Helicobacter bilis in liver and biliary cancers from ATBC and PLCO.

BACKGROUND: Helicobacter species (spp.) have been detected in human bile and hepatobiliary tissue Helicobacter spp. promote gallstone formation and hepatobiliary tumors in laboratory studies, though it remains unclear whether Helicobacter spp. contribute to these cancers in humans. We used a multiplex panel to assess whether seropositivity to Helicobacter (H.) hepaticus or H. bilis proteins was associated with the development of hepatobiliary cancers in the Finnish Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study, and US-based Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO). METHODS: We included 62 biliary and 121 liver cancers, and 190 age-matched controls from ATBC and 74 biliary and 105 liver cancers, and 364 age- and sex-matched controls from PLCO. Seropositivity to 14 H. hepaticus and H. bilis antigens was measured using a multiplex assay. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were adjusted for major hepatobiliary cancer risk factors and Helicobacter pylori serostatus. RESULTS: Seropositivity to the H. bilis antigen, P167D, was associated with more than a twofold higher risk of liver cancer (OR: 2.38; 95% CI: 1.06, 5.36) and seropositivity to the H. hepaticus antigens HH0407 or HH1201, or H. bilis antigen, HRAG 01470 were associated with higher risk of biliary cancer (OR: 5.01; 95% CI: 1.53, 16.40; OR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.00, 5.76; OR: 3.27; 95% CI: 1.14, 9.34, respectively) within PLCO. No associations for any of the H. hepaticus or H. bilis antigens were noted for liver or biliary cancers within ATBC. CONCLUSIONS: Further investigations in cohort studies should examine the role of Helicobacter spp. in the etiology of liver and biliary cancers.

Genetic influences on circulating retinol and its relationship to human health.

Retinol is a fat-soluble vitamin that plays an essential role in many biological processes throughout the human lifespan. Here, we perform the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of retinol to date in up to 22,274 participants. We identify eight common variant loci associated with retinol, as well as a rare-variant signal. An integrative gene prioritisation pipeline supports novel retinol-associated genes outside of the main retinol transport complex (RBP4:TTR) related to lipid biology, energy homoeostasis, and endocrine signalling. Genetic proxies of circulating retinol were then used to estimate causal relationships with almost 20,000 clinical phenotypes via a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation study (MR-pheWAS). The MR-pheWAS suggests that retinol may exert causal effects on inflammation, adiposity, ocular measures, the microbiome, and MRI-derived brain phenotypes, amongst several others. Conversely, circulating retinol may be causally influenced by factors including lipids and serum creatinine. Finally, we demonstrate how a retinol polygenic score could identify individuals more likely to fall outside of the normative range of circulating retinol for a given age. In summary, this study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the genetics of circulating retinol, as well as revealing traits which should be prioritised for further investigation with respect to retinol related therapies or nutritional intervention.

Changes in smoking use and subsequent lung cancer risk in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study.

BACKGROUND: Reducing cigarettes per day may lower the risk of lung cancer compared with continuing to smoke at the same intensity. Other changes in smoking behaviors, such as increasing cigarette consumption or quitting for a period and relapsing, may also affect lung cancer risk. METHODS: We examined changes in smoking status and cigarettes per day among 24 613 Finnish male smokers aged 50-69 years who participated in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study. Longitudinal data on smoking were collected during study follow-up visits 3 times a year (approximately every 4 months) between 1985 and 1993. Incident lung cancer patients through 2012 were identified by the Finnish Cancer Registry. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Compared with smoking 20 cigarettes per day continuously across the intervention period, reducing an average of 5 cigarettes per day per year while smoking was associated with a 20% lower risk of lung cancer (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.90). A substantially lower risk of lung cancer was also observed when participants smoked at 50% (RR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.57 to 0.90) and 10% (RR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.83) of study visits, relative to smoked at 100% of study visits. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers may lower their risk of lung cancer by reducing smoking intensity (cigarettes per day while smoking) and the time they smoke. However, quitting smoking completely is the most effective way for smokers to reduce their risk of lung cancer.

Every tenth malignant solid tumor attributed to overweight and alcohol consumption: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that some four in ten cancers are attributable to a few key risk factors. The aim of this study was to estimate cohort-based population attributable fractions (PAFs) in Finland for potentially modifiable cancer risk factors. METHODS: Data from eight health studies including 253,953 subjects with 29,802 incident malignant solid tumors were analysed using Bayesian multivariate regression model with multiplicative risk factor effects. We estimated the effects of smoking, excess body weight, alcohol consumption, physical activity, parity and education on cancer incidence and related PAFs by cancer site, accounting for competing mortality. RESULTS: PAF for all cancer sites and exposures combined was 34% (95% credible interval 29%-39%) in men and 24% (19%-28%) in women. In men, 23% (21%-27%) and in women 8% (6%-9%) of all cancers were attributed to smoking. PAF related to excess body weight was 4% (2%-6%) in men and 5% (2%-7%) in women, to alcohol 7% (3%-10%) in men and 4% (0%-7%) in women, and to excess body weight and alcohol combined 10% (6%-15%) in men and 9% (4%-13%) in women. CONCLUSION: Smoking was the most important factor contributing to cancer burden in Finnish men and women over the last 40 years. The contribution of excess body weight and alcohol consumption together outweighed the role of smoking in women. As the prevalence of overweight is expected to increase, more efficient public health measures supporting adherence to healthy weight are essential to reduce cancer burden.