Mortality rates among patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify mortality rates for patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals and compare these rates with those of the general population. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: British Columbia, Scotland, and England (England cohort consists of patients with cirrhosis only). PARTICIPANTS: 21 790 people who were successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals (2014-19). Participants were divided into three liver disease severity groups: people without cirrhosis (pre-cirrhosis), those with compensated cirrhosis, and those with end stage liver disease. Follow-up started 12 weeks after antiviral treatment completion and ended on date of death or 31 December 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age-sex standardised mortality rates, and standardised mortality ratio comparing the number of deaths with that of the general population, adjusting for age, sex, and year. Poisson regression was used to identify factors associated with all cause mortality rates. RESULTS: 1572 (7%) participants died during follow-up. The leading causes of death were drug related mortality (n=383, 24%), liver failure (n=286, 18%), and liver cancer (n=250, 16%). Crude all cause mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person years) were 31.4 (95% confidence interval 29.3 to 33.7), 22.7 (20.7 to 25.0), and 39.6 (35.4 to 44.3) for cohorts from British Columbia, Scotland, and England, respectively. All cause mortality was considerably higher than the rate for the general population across all disease severity groups and settings; for example, all cause mortality was three times higher among people without cirrhosis in British Columbia (standardised mortality ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.71 to 3.23; P<0.001) and more than 10 times higher for patients with end stage liver disease in British Columbia (13.61, 11.94 to 15.49; P<0.001). In regression analyses, older age, recent substance misuse, alcohol misuse, and comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates among people successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals are high compared with the general population. Drug and liver related causes of death were the main drivers of excess mortality. These findings highlight the need for continued support and follow-up after successful treatment for hepatitis C to maximise the impact of direct acting antivirals.

Delivery of biannual ultrasound surveillance for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies show the uptake of biannual ultrasound (US) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis is suboptimal. Here, our goal was to understand in broader terms how surveillance is being delivered to cirrhosis patients with cured hepatitis C in the UK. METHODS: Hepatitis C cirrhosis patients achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) to antiviral therapies were identified from the national Hepatitis-C-Research-UK resource. Data on (i) liver/abdominal US examinations, (ii) HCC diagnoses, and (iii) HCC curative treatment were obtained through record-linkage to national health registries. The rate of US uptake was calculated by dividing the number of US episodes by follow-up time. RESULTS: A total of 1908 cirrhosis patients from 31 liver centres were followed for 3.8 (IQR: 3.4-4.9) years. Overall, 10 396 liver/abdominal USs were identified. The proportion with biannual US was 19% in the first 3 years after SVR and 9% for all follow-up years. Higher uptake of biannual US was associated with attending a liver transplant centre; older age and cirrhosis decompensation. Funnel plot analysis indicated significant inter-centre variability in biannual US uptake, with 6/29 centres outside control limits. Incident HCC occurred in 133 patients, of which 49/133 (37%) were treated with curative intent. The number of US episodes in the two years prior to HCC diagnosis was significantly associated with higher odds of curative-intent treatment (aOR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.12-2,09; p = .007). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel data on the cascade of care for HCC in the UK. Our findings suggest biannual US is poorly targeted, inefficient and is not being delivered equitably to all patients.

Universal testing for hepatitis B and hepatitis C in the emergency department: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of two urban hospitals in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have shown the effectiveness of testing for hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) in emergency departments (ED), due to the elevated prevalence amongst attendees. The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of universal opt-out HBV and HCV testing in EDs based on 2 long-term studies of the real-world effectiveness of testing in 2 large ED's in the UK. METHODS: A Markov model was used to evaluate ED-based HBV and HCV testing versus no ED testing, in addition to current testing practice. The two EDs had a HBV HBsAg prevalence of 0.5-0.9% and an HCV RNA prevalence of 0.9-1.0%. The analysis was performed from a UK health service perspective, over a lifetime time horizon. Costs are reported in British pounds (GBP), and outcomes as quality adjusted life years (QALYs), with both discounted at 3.5% per year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) are calculated as costs per QALY gained. A willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY was used. The cost-effectiveness was estimated for both infections, in both ED's. RESULTS: HBV and HCV testing were highly cost-effective in both settings, with ICERs ranging from £7,177 to £12,387 per QALY gained. In probabilistic analyses, HBV testing was 89-94% likely to be cost-effective at the threshold, while HCV testing was 94-100% likely to be cost-effective, across both settings. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, testing remained cost-effective in both locations at ≥ 0.25% HBsAg prevalence, and ≥ 0.49% HCV RNA prevalence. This is much lower than the prevalence observed in the two EDs included in this study. CONCLUSIONS: HBV and HCV testing in urban EDs is highly cost-effective in the UK, and can be cost-effective at relatively low prevalence. These results should be reflected in UK and European hepatitis testing guidelines.

Real-world clinical effectiveness and sustainability of universal bloodborne virus testing in an urban emergency department in the UK.

Innovative testing approaches and care pathways are required to meet HIV, hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) elimination goals. Routine testing for blood-borne viruses (BBVs) within emergency departments (EDs) is suggested by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control but there is a paucity of supporting evidence. We evaluated the introduction of routine BBV testing in EDs at a large teaching hospital in northern England. In October 2018, we modified the electronic laboratory ordering system to reflex opt-out HIV, HBV and HCV testing for all ED attendees aged 16-65 years who had a routine blood test for urea and electrolytes (U&Es). Linkage to care (LTC) was attempted for newly diagnosed patients, those never referred and those who had previously disengaged from care. The project operated for 18 months, here we present evaluation of the initial nine months (2 October 2018-1 July 2019). We analysed testing uptake, BBV seropositivity, LTC and treatment initiation within six months post-diagnosis. Over 9 months, 17,026/28,178 (60.4%) ED attendees who had U&Es performed were tested for ≥ 1 BBV. 299 active BBV infections were identified: 70 HIV Ab/Ag-positive (0.4% seroprevalence), 73 HBsAg-positive (0.4%) and 156 HCV RNA-positive (1.0%). Only 24.3% (17/70) HIV Ab/Ag-positive individuals required LTC, compared to 94.9% (148/156) HCV RNA-positive and 53.4% (39/73) HBsAg-positive individuals. LTC was successful in 94.1% (16/17) HIV Ab/Ag-positive and 69.3% (27/39) HBsAg-positive individuals. However, at 6 months LTC was just 39.2% (58/148) for HCV RNA-positive individuals, with 64% (37/58) of these commencing treatment. Universal opt-out ED BBV testing proved feasible and effective in identifying active BBV infections, especially among marginalised populations with reduced healthcare access. Our integrated approach achieved good LTC rates although further service development is necessary, particularly for HCV RNA-positive people who inject drugs.

Liver transplant listing for hepatitis C-associated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma has fallen in the United Kingdom since the introduction of direct-acting antiviral therapy.

Following the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), there have been reports of declining incidence of hepatitis C (HCV)-related liver disease as a liver transplantation indication. In this study, we assessed the impact of DAA on liver transplant indications in the UK and waiting list outcomes for patients with HCV. We assessed UK adult elective liver transplant registrants between 2006 and 2017. The aetiology of liver disease at registration was reclassified using an accepted hierarchical system and changes were assessed over time and compared before and after the introduction of DAA. Registration UKELD scores and 1-year waiting list outcomes were also compared. The proportion of waiting list patients registered with HCV-related cirrhosis reduced after the introduction of DAA from 10.5% in 2013 to 4.7% in 2016 (P < 0.001). Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) was the leading indication for liver transplantation followed by liver cancer (26.1% and 18.4% in 2016, respectively). The proportion of registrations with Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with HCV reduced from 46.4% in 2013 to 33.7% in 2016 (P = 0.002). For patients with HCV-related cirrhosis at one year the outcomes of death, transplantation, delisting due to improvement or deterioration and awaiting a graft at 1 year were similar. For patients with HCV-related HCC, the proportion dying at 1 year reduced significantly from 2.9% to 0.0% (P = 0.04). These data demonstrate an association between DAA and reduced listing rates for HCV-related cirrhosis and HCC, but no significant changes in waiting list outcomes other than reduced mortality in the HCC group.

Factors Associated With Outcomes of Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System.

We sought to identify factors that are predictive of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and to develop and validate a contemporaneous risk score for use in a real-world clinical setting. Analyzing data from 1,001 patients recruited to the UK-PSC research cohort, we evaluated clinical variables for their association with 2-year and 10-year outcome through Cox-proportional hazards and C-statistic analyses. We generated risk scores for short-term and long-term outcome prediction, validating their use in two independent cohorts totaling 451 patients. Thirty-six percent of the derivation cohort were transplanted or died over a cumulative follow-up of 7,904 years. Serum alkaline phosphatase of at least 2.4 × upper limit of normal at 1 year after diagnosis was predictive of 10-year outcome (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.05; C = 0.63; median transplant-free survival 63 versus 108 months; P < 0.0001), as was the presence of extrahepatic biliary disease (HR = 1.45; P = 0.01). We developed two risk scoring systems based on age, values of bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, platelets, presence of extrahepatic biliary disease, and variceal hemorrhage, which predicted 2-year and 10-year outcomes with good discrimination (C statistic = 0.81 and 0.80, respectively). Both UK-PSC risk scores were well-validated in our external cohort and outperformed the Mayo Clinic and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scores (C statistic = 0.75 and 0.63, respectively). Although heterozygosity for the previously validated human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR*03:01 risk allele predicted increased risk of adverse outcome (HR = 1.33; P = 0.001), its addition did not improve the predictive accuracy of the UK-PSC risk scores. Conclusion: Our analyses, based on a detailed clinical evaluation of a large representative cohort of participants with PSC, furthers our understanding of clinical risk markers and reports the development and validation of a real-world scoring system to identify those patients most likely to die or require liver transplantation.

Patient understanding of liver cirrhosis and improvement using multimedia education.

OBJECTIVE: For patients to engage with the long-term management of liver cirrhosis, sufficient understanding of their condition is essential. The aim of this study was to assess baseline patient knowledge and to test whether a condition-specific multimedia screencast could improve this. DESIGN: Service quality improvement study. SETTING: A UK tertiary liver centre. Patients were recruited during 12 general hepatology outpatient clinics. PATIENTS: Fifty-two patients with liver cirrhosis were included. Sixty-two per cent were male; their median age was 56 years and their median clinic attendance period was 3 years. INTERVENTIONS: Participants completed a baseline questionnaire assessing their knowledge of the management and complications of cirrhosis. They then watched a tailored screencast discussing this condition, which had been developed by expert hepatologists in collaboration with patient representatives. Knowledge was reassessed using a new copy of the original questionnaire after an interval of at least one month. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patient scores on knowledge questionnaires at baseline and follow-up. RESULTS: Fifty-two patients achieved a median score of 25.0% before viewing the screencast. Thirty-five patients then completed a follow-up questionnaire after an interval period. The median questionnaire score in this group improved from 25.0% to 66.7%; an increase of 41.7% compared with baseline (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite regular review at a specialist clinic, participants had poor baseline knowledge of liver cirrhosis. Delivering information by screencast led to a significant improvement. We therefore present an effective way to empower patients with accurate, up-to-date and retainable information that can easily be translated to many other conditions.

The UK-PBC risk scores: Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis.

UNLABELLED: The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care.

Liver toxicity associated with sofosbuvir, an NS5A inhibitor and ribavirin use.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma. There have been rapid advances in HCV treatment with the development of oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Studies have shown sustained virological response rates above 90% with combinations of DAAs, including patients with compensated cirrhosis. Thus far, significant drug toxicity has not been seen with these agents, but there is limited experience of using DAAs in decompensated HCV cirrhosis. This report describes the first experience of serious drug-induced hepatotoxicity with the new DAAs. The mechanism underlying these drug reactions is currently unknown. Few patients with decompensated cirrhosis have been treated with DAAs, so the exact pharmacokinetics in this population have not been characterised. In both cases presented here, patients were taking or had recently taken other drugs. It is possible that an unknown interaction or reaction to the drug combination caused the hepatotoxicity. Although the association with the DAAs is not proven these cases indicate that patients with advanced liver disease need close monitoring while on DAA therapy and if there is a significant unexplained deterioration in liver function the DAAs should be discontinued.

Liraglutide safety and efficacy in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (LEAN): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 2 study.

BACKGROUND: Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogues reduce hepatic steatosis, concentrations of liver enzymes, and insulin resistance in murine models of fatty liver disease. These analogues are licensed for type 2 diabetes, but their efficacy in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis is unknown. We assessed the safety and efficacy of the long-acting GLP-1 analogue, liraglutide, in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. METHODS: This multicentre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial was conducted in four UK medical centres to assess subcutaneous injections of liraglutide (1·8 mg daily) compared with placebo for patients who are overweight and show clinical evidence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) using a computer-generated, centrally administered procedure, stratified by trial centre and diabetes status. The trial was designed using A'Hern's single-group method, which required eight (38%) of 21 successes in the liraglutide group for the effect of liraglutide to be considered clinically significant. Patients, investigators, clinical trial site staff, and pathologists were masked to treatment assignment throughout the study. The primary outcome measure was resolution of definite non-alcoholic steatohepatitis with no worsening in fibrosis from baseline to end of treatment (48 weeks), as assessed centrally by two independent pathologists. Analysis was done by intention-to-treat analysis, which included all patients who underwent end-of-treatment biopsy. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01237119. FINDINGS: Between Aug 1, 2010, and May 31, 2013, 26 patients were randomly assigned to receive liraglutide and 26 to placebo. Nine (39%) of 23 patients who received liraglutide and underwent end-of-treatment liver biopsy had resolution of definite non-alcoholic steatohepatitis compared with two (9%) of 22 such patients in the placebo group (relative risk 4·3 [95% CI 1·0-17·7]; p=0·019). Two (9%) of 23 patients in the liraglutide group versus eight (36%) of 22 patients in the placebo group had progression of fibrosis (0·2 [0·1-1·0]; p=0·04). Most adverse events were grade 1 (mild) to grade 2 (moderate) in severity, transient, and similar in the two treatment groups for all organ classes and symptoms, with the exception of gastrointestinal disorders in 21 (81%) of 23 patients in the liraglutide group and 17 (65%) of 22 patients in the placebo group, which included diarrhoea (ten [38%] patients in the liraglutide group vs five [19%] in the placebo group), constipation (seven [27%] vs none), and loss of appetite (eight [31%] vs two [8%]). INTERPRETATION: Liraglutide was safe, well tolerated, and led to histological resolution of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, warranting extensive, longer-term studies. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, and Novo Nordisk.

Donor risk index and MELD interactions in predicting long-term graft survival: a single-centre experience.

INTRODUCTION: Feng et al. described the donor risk index (DRI) in North American liver transplant recipients. We evaluated the effect of the DRI and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score on liver transplant recipients from a single center in the United Kingdom. METHOD: Prospectively, collected data of all patients transplanted at our center between January 1995 and December 2005 were included in the analysis (n=1090). Outcomes evaluated included patient-censored and death-censored graft survival. Outcomes of liver transplantation from "high" and "low" DRI groups (> or =1.8 and <1.8, respectively) on patients categorized into low (<15), intermediate (15-30), and high (>30) MELD categories were analyzed. RESULTS: MELD at transplant was the only significant predictor of patient survival. MELD at transplant and DRI more than 1.7 were associated with a poorer graft survival (P=0.03). There was a trend toward poorer graft survival in high DRI grafts transplanted in low and "intermediate" MELD categories (P=0.47 and 0.006, respectively). However, in the high MELD category, there was a similar graft survival for both high and low DRI grafts. CONCLUSION: Patients with low and intermediate MELDs at transplantation may be better served by a low DRI graft, whereas patients with high MELD may not be compromised by receiving a high DRI graft.