Simulated impact of medicaid expansion on the economic burden of opioid use disorder in North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: Opioid use disorder (OUD) imposes significant costs on state and local governments. Medicaid expansion may lead to a reduction in the cost burden of OUD to the state. METHODS: We estimated the health care, criminal justice and child welfare costs, and tax revenue losses, attributable to OUD and borne by the state of North Carolina in 2022, and then estimated changes in the same domains following Medicaid expansion in North Carolina (adopted in December 2023). Analyses used existing literature on the national and state-level costs attributable to OUD to estimate individual-level health care, criminal justice, and child welfare system costs, and lost tax revenues. We combined Individual-level costs and prevalence estimates to estimate costs borne by the state before Medicaid expansion. Changes in costs after expansion were computed based on a) medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) access for new enrollees and b) shifting of responsibility for some health care costs from the state to the federal government. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for the impact of parameter uncertainty. Dollar estimates are from the 2022 price year, and costs following the first year were discounted at 3 %. RESULTS: In 2022, North Carolina incurred costs of $749 million (95 % credible interval [CI]: $305 M-$1,526 M) associated with OUD (53 % in health care, 36 % in criminal justice, 7 % in lost tax revenue, and 4 % in child welfare costs). Expanding Medicaid lowered the cost burden of OUD incurred by the state. The state was predicted to save an estimated $72 million per year (95 % CI: $6 M-$241 M) for the first two years and $30 million per year (95 % CI: -$28 M-$176 M) in subsequent years. Over five years, savings totaled $224 million (95 % CI: -$47 M-$949 M). CONCLUSION: Medicaid expansion has the potential to decrease the burden of OUD in North Carolina, and policymakers should expedite its implementation.

Untreated Psychiatric and Substance Use Disorders Among Caregivers With Children Reported to Child Protective Services.

Importance: Mental and substance use disorders can interfere with parents' ability to care for their children and are associated with a greater likelihood of child protective services involvement to address child maltreatment. Parent engagement in psychiatric and substance use disorder treatment can prevent child maltreatment and family separations. Objective: To determine whether caregivers with psychiatric or substance use disorders whose children were referred to child protective services received Medicaid-funded psychiatric or substance use disorder treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants: Caregivers listed on child welfare records were linked with their Medicaid records using 2017 to 2020 Medicaid and child welfare data from Florida and Kentucky. Medicaid claims were analyzed to determine if caregivers had a psychiatric or substance use disorder diagnosis and whether those caregivers received counseling or medications. The analysis was conducted in 2023. Exposure: Diagnosis of a psychiatric or substance use disorder in 2020. Main Outcome and Measure: Receipt of psychiatric or substance use disorder counseling or medications. Results: Of the 58 551 caregivers, 65% were aged between 26 and 40 years; 69% were female and 31% were male. Overall, 78% identified as White, 20% identified as Black/African American, and less than 1% identified as American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian, or Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander. In 2020, 59% of caregivers with Medicaid and children referred to child protective services had a mental health or substance use disorder diagnosis, compared with 33% of age- and sex-matched Medicaid beneficiaries without children referred to child protective services (P < .001). Among caregivers with a psychiatric disorder, 38% received counseling and 67% received psychiatric medication. Among those with a substance use disorder, 40% received counseling and 38% received a substance use disorder medication. Conclusions and Relevance: In this case-control study, despite Medicaid coverage of an array of effective behavioral health treatments, large portions of caregivers with Medicaid coverage, who need treatment and whose children were referred to child protective services, were not receiving treatment. Medicaid and child welfare agencies should make a greater effort to connect caregivers to behavioral health services.

Linked Child Welfare and Medicaid Data in Kentucky and Florida Highlights Racial Disparities in Access to Care.

Parents with serious mental health (MH) and substance use disorders (SUD) can face profound challenges caring for their children. MH/SUD treatment can improve outcomes for both parents and their children. This study evaluated whether parents with Medicaid with MH/SUD conditions whose children had child protective services (CPS) involvement were receiving MH/SUD treatment and whether receipt differed by race. We analyzed the 2020 Child and Caregiver Outcomes Using Linked Data (CCOULD) which contains Medicaid and child welfare records from Kentucky and Florida on 58,551 CPS-involved caregivers. Among caregivers with an MH diagnosis, White individuals were more likely than Black individuals to have received counseling (42% vs. 20%) or an MH medication (69% vs. 52%). Among caregivers with an SUD, White individuals were more likely than Black individuals to have received counseling (43% vs. 20%) or an SUD medication (43% vs. 11%). More effort is needed to connect parents with CPS involvement to MH/SUD treatment, particularly Black parents.

Evaluating the potential impact of rubella-containing vaccine introduction on congenital rubella syndrome in Afghanistan, Dem. Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Pakistan: A mathematical modeling study.

We assessed the potential impact of introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) on congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) incidence in Afghanistan (AFG), Democratic Republic of Congo (COD), Ethiopia (ETH), Nigeria (NGA), and Pakistan (PAK). We simulated several RCV introduction scenarios over 30 years using a validated mathematical model. Our findings indicate that RCV introduction could avert between 86,000 and 535,000 CRS births, preventing 2.5 to 15.8 million disability-adjusted life years. AFG and PAK could reduce about 90% of CRS births by introducing RCV with current measles routine coverage and executing supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). However, COD, NGA, and ETH must increase their current routine vaccination coverage to reduce CRS incidence significantly. This study showcases the potential benefits of RCV introduction and reinforces the need for global action to strengthen immunization programs.

Do Contemporary Cancer Survivors Experience Better Quality of Life? Evaluating a Decade of SEER Medicare Health Outcomes Survey Data.

BACKGROUND: A cancer diagnosis may have deleterious effects on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) as adults age. This study examined differences in HRQOL between cancer and matched noncancer Medicare beneficiaries over 65, within and across two time periods. METHODS: We used novel matching methods on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare Health Outcomes Survey (MHOS) data resource. We matched SEER-MHOS respondents with cancer from a recent period (2015-2019) to respondents with cancer from an earlier period (2008-2012). We then matched these two cohorts, without replacement, to contemporary cohorts without cancer diagnoses. We estimated Veteran's RAND 12-Item Short Form Survey Physical Component Summary (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores for all cohorts. RESULTS: Our analysis found significantly higher mean MCS scores in the recent period for those with cancer relative to the recent noncancer control group. Breast and lung cancer presented positive and statistically significant trends. We found statistically insignificant differences in PCS scores between the two time periods. No cancer sites had different PCS scores over time compared with the comparison group. CONCLUSIONS: Mental health for those with cancer improved more between 2008 and 2019 than a matched noncancer comparison group. Physical health remained stable across time. These findings highlight the importance of including a matched noncancer group when evaluating HRQOL outcomes. IMPACT: SEER-MHOS respondents with cancer report stable PCS scores across 15 years of data and higher MCS scores relative to noncancer controls.

Associations between healthcare costs and care experiences among older adults with and without cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Care coordination and patient-provider communication are important for older adults with cancer, as they likely have additional, non-cancer chronic conditions requiring consultation across multiple providers. Suboptimal care coordination and patient-provider communication can lead to costly and preventable adverse outcomes. This study examines Medicare expenditures associated with patient-reported care coordination and patient-provider communication among older adults with and without cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We explore SEER-CAHPS® (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems) linked data for differences in health care expenditures by care coordination and patient-provider communication experiences for beneficiaries with and without cancer. The cancer cohort included beneficiaries with ten prevalent cancer types diagnosed 2011-2019 at least six months before completing a CAHPS survey. Medicare expenditures were abstracted from Medicare claims data. Care coordination and patient-provider communication composite scores (range 0-100, higher scores indicate better experiences) were patient-reported in the CAHPS® survey. We estimated expenditure differences per one-point change in composite scores for patients with and without cancer. RESULTS: Our analysis included 16,778 matched beneficiaries with and without a previously diagnosed cancer (N = 33,556). Higher care coordination and patient-provider communication scores were inversely associated with Medicare expenditures among beneficiaries with and without cancer in the six months prior to survey response, ranging from -$83 (standard error [SE] = $7) to -$90 (SE = $6) per month. Six months post-survey, expenditures estimates ranging -$88 (SE = $6) to -$106 (SE = $8) were found. DISCUSSION: We found that lower Medicare expenditures were associated with higher care coordination and patient-provider communication scores. As the number of survivors living longer both with and beyond their cancer grows, addressing their multifaceted care and improving outcomes will be critical.

Does access to free medication reduce health system costs? An evaluation of the Dispensary of Hope program.

BACKGROUND: Cost-related medication nonadherence-when patients fail to take medication as prescribed because of the cost of the medication-has numerous consequences: more hospitalizations, avoidable deaths, and greater health care expenditures. Dispensary of Hope is a charitable medication access program that collects and distributes pharmaceuticals to pharmacies to dispense free of charge to patients with no insurance, low incomes, and chronic conditions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the differences in medical costs and utilization of hospital patients enrolled in the Dispensary of Hope program relative to those who were not enrolled. METHODS: We used administrative claims data from 2 health systems participating in Dispensary of Hope to identify those in the program and a comparison group, respectively. Claims data included emergency department (ED) encounters, inpatient encounters, costs, and prescriptions. Health system 1 (HS1) data began July 1, 2016, and ended December 31, 2019; health system 2 (HS2) data ran from March 10, 2014, to December 31, 2019. Program enrollment dates (index dates) were identified via program registration or prescription fills. We propensity score weighted a comparison population from HS1 and HS2, respectively, to match program patient demographic and comorbidity characteristics. We estimated changes in costs, ED visits, inpatient stays, and primary care sensitive ED visits over time between the 2 groups (difference-indifference) over 18 months preenrollment and postenrollment. RESULTS: HS1 comparison (n = 6,714) and Dispensary of Hope (n = 880) groups were balanced on age, sex, race and ethnicity, and comorbidities; both populations were approximately 46 years old, 43% female, 64% White, with an average of 3.0 comorbidities. The HS2 samples were almost 50 years old and a majority female (56%) and Black (55%). Per-person annual costs at HS1 decreased by $3,161 (P < 0.05) more in the Dispensary of Hope group than in the comparison group from the preenrollment to the postenrollment period. Inpatient stays decreased by 200 stays per 1,000 patients per year (P = 0.02) and ED visits increased by 0.32 (P < 0.01) on a yearly basis relative to the comparison group. Primary care sensitive ED visits increased over the period. No results were statistically significant in HS2. CONCLUSIONS: We found substantial reductions in costs and inpatient stays for Dispensary of Hope HS1 participants, and we did not find significant results at HS2. Differences between the health systems or patient populations could explain these varying results. Our study represents a rigorous, multistate evaluation that highlights the impact of a charitable medication access program on hospital utilization for the medically underserved population. DISCLOSURES: The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: this work was funded and supported by Dispensary of Hope.

Cost-Related Medication Nonadherence and Patient Cost Responsibility for Rural and Urban Cancer Survivors.

PURPOSE: The relationship between out-of-pocket spending and cost-related medication nonadherence among older rural- and urban-dwelling cancer survivors is not well understood. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, Medicare claims, and the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems survey linked data resource linked data (2007-2015) to investigate the relationship between cancer survivors' cost responsibility in the year before and after report of delaying or not filling a prescription medication because of cost in the past 6 months (cost-related medication nonadherence). Secondary exposures and outcomes included Medicare spending and utilization. Generalized linear models assessed bidirectional relationships between cost-related medication nonadherence, spending, and utilization. Effects of residence were assessed via interaction terms. RESULTS: Of 6,591 older cancer survivors, 13% reported cost-related medication nonadherence. Survivors were a median 8 years (interquartile range, 4.5-12.5 years) from their cancer diagnosis, 15% were dually Medicare/Medicaid-eligible, and prostate (40%) and breast (32%) cancer survivors were most prevalent. With every $500 USD increase in patient cost responsibility, risk of cost-related medication nonadherence increased by 3% (risk ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.04). After report of cost-related medication nonadherence, patient cost responsibility was 22% higher (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.32) compared with those not reporting nonadherence, amounting to $523 USD (95% CI, $430 USD to $630 USD). Medicare spending and utilization were also higher before and after report of cost-related nonadherence versus none. For survivors residing in rural (18%) and urban (82%) areas, residence did not modify adherence or cost outcomes. CONCLUSION: A bidirectional relationship exists between patient cost responsibility and cost-related medication nonadherence. Interventions reducing urban- and rural-dwelling survivor health care costs and cost-related adherence barriers are needed.

An economic evaluation of reducing colorectal cancer surveillance intensity.

Aim: Analyze the impact of national implementation of 'low intensity' post-treatment colorectal cancer surveillance compared with current practices. Materials & methods: Create a population-level Markov model to estimate impacts of expansion of low versus high intensity surveillance post-treatment on healthcare utilization, costs and caregiver time loss. Results: Shifting to low intensity colorectal cancer surveillance would reduce patient burden by 301,830 h per patient annually over 5 years. Cost reductions over 5 years were US$43.5 million for Medicare and US$4.2 million for Medicaid. Total societal cost savings equaled US$104.2 million. Conclusion: National implementation of low intensity post-treatment colorectal cancer surveillance has the potential to significantly reduce burden and costs on patients and their caregivers with no added risks to health.

Diet quality, weight loss, and diabetes incidence in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP).

BACKGROUND: We evaluated whether diet quality is a predictor of weight loss and reduced diabetes risk, independent of caloric intake in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) cohort, a randomized clinical trial of adults at risk for diabetes. METHODS: This secondary analysis included 2914 participants with available data (964 intensive lifestyle (ILS), 977 metformin, 973 placebo). Dietary intake was assessed using a 117-item food frequency questionnaire. Diet quality was quantified using the Alternative Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI). AHEI ranges from 0 to 110, with higher scores corresponding to higher quality diets. ILS participants had greater improvement (p < 0.001) in AHEI over 1-year (4.2 ± 9.0) compared to metformin (1.2 ± 8.5) and placebo (1.4 ± 8.4). We examined the association between AHEI change and weight change from baseline to 1-year using linear regression, and that between 1-year AHEI change and incident diabetes, using hazard models over an average 3 years follow-up. Models were evaluated within treatment group and adjusted for relevant characteristics including caloric intake, physical activity, BMI and AHEI. Models testing incident diabetes were further adjusted for baseline fasting and 2 h glucose. RESULTS: An increase in AHEI score was associated with weight loss in ILS [ß per 10-point increase (SE) -1.2 kg (0.3, p < 0.001)], metformin [- 0. 90 kg (0.2, p < 0.001)] and placebo [- 0.55 kg (0.2, p = 0.01)]. However, AHEI change was not associated with incident diabetes in any group before or after adjustment for weight change. CONCLUSIONS: Controlling for weight, diet quality was not associated with diabetes incidence but helps achieve weight loss, an important factor in diabetes prevention.

Assessing costs of a hypertension management program: An application of the HEARTS costing tool in a program planning workshop in Thailand.

The HEARTS technical package, a part of the Global Hearts Initiative to improve cardiovascular health globally, is a strategic approach for cardiovascular disease prevention and control at the primary care level. To support the evaluation of costs associated with HEARTS program components, a costing tool was developed to evaluate the incremental cost of program implementation. This report documents an application of the HEARTS costing tool during a costing workshop prior to the initiation of a HEARTS pilot program in Thailand's Phothong District, 2019-2020. During the workshop, a mock exercise was conducted to estimate the expected costs of the pilot study. The workshop application of the tool underscored its applicability to the HEARTS program planning process by identifying cost drivers associated with individual program elements. It further illustrated that by supporting disaggregation of costs into fixed and variable categories, the tool can inform the scalability of pilot projects to larger populations. Lessons learned during the initial development and application of the costing tool can inform future HEARTS evaluation efforts.

Cost-effectiveness of patient navigation for breast cancer screening in the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program.

OBJECTIVES: Patient navigation (PN) services have been shown to improve cancer screening in disparate populations. This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of implementing PN services within the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP). METHODS: We adapted a breast cancer simulation model to estimate a population cohort of women aged 40-64 years from the NBCCEDP through their lifetime. We incorporated their screening frequency and screening and diagnostic costs. RESULTS: Within the NBCCEDP, Program with PN (vs. No PN) resulted in a greater number of mammograms per woman (4.23 vs. 4.14), lower lifetime mortality from breast cancer (3.53% vs. 3.61%), and fewer missed diagnostic resolution per woman (0.017 vs. 0.025). The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for a Program with PN was $32,531 per quality-adjusted life-years relative to Program with No PN. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating PN services within the NBCCEDP may be a cost-effective way of improving adherence to screening and diagnostic resolution for women who have abnormal results from screening mammography. Our study highlights the value of supportive services such as PN in improving the quality of care offered within the NBCCEDP.

Cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening in the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program.

PURPOSE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening in the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP). METHODS: Using a modified CISNET breast cancer simulation model, we estimated outcomes for women aged 40-64 years associated with three scenarios: breast cancer screening within the NBCCEDP, screening in the absence of the NBCCEDP (no program), and no screening through any program. We report screening outcomes, cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and sensitivity analyses results. RESULTS: Compared with no program and no screening, the NBCCEDP lowers breast cancer mortality and improves QALYs, but raises health care costs. Base-case ICER for the program was $51,754/QALY versus no program and $50,223/QALY versus no screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis ICER for the program was $56,615/QALY [95% CI $24,069, $134,230/QALY] versus no program and $51,096/QALY gained [95% CI $26,423, $97,315/QALY] versus no screening. CONCLUSIONS: On average, breast cancer screening in the NBCCEDP was cost-effective compared with no program or no screening.

Impact of Improved HIV Care and Treatment on PrEP Effectiveness in the United States, 2016-2020.

BACKGROUND: The effect of improving diagnosis, care, and treatment of persons living with HIV (PLWH) on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) effectiveness in the United States has not been well established. METHODS: We used a dynamic, compartmental model that simulates the sexually active US population. We investigated the change in cumulative HIV incidence from 2016 to 2020 for 3 HIV care-continuum levels and the marginal benefit of PrEP compared with each. We also explored the marginal benefit of PrEP for individual risk groups, and as PrEP adherence, coverage and dropout rates varied. RESULTS: Delivering PrEP in 2016 to persons at high risk of acquiring HIV resulted in an 18.1% reduction in new HIV infections from 2016 to 2020 under current care-continuum levels. Achieving HIV national goals of 90% of PLWH with diagnosed infection, 85% of newly diagnosed PLWH linked to care at diagnosis, and 80% of diagnosed PLWH virally suppressed reduced cumulative incidence by 34.4%. Delivery of PrEP in addition to this scenario resulted in a marginal benefit of 11.1% additional infections prevented. When national goals were reached, PrEP prevented an additional 15.2% cases among men who have sex with men, 3.9% among heterosexuals, and 3.8% among persons who inject drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The marginal benefit of PrEP was larger when current HIV-care-continuum percentages were maintained but continued to be substantial even when national care goals were met. The high-risk men who have sex with men population was the chief beneficiary of PrEP.

Estimation of Breast Cancer Incident Cases and Medical Care Costs Attributable to Alcohol Consumption Among Insured Women Aged <45 Years in the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: This study estimated the percentage of breast cancer cases, total number of incident cases, and total annual medical care costs attributable to alcohol consumption among insured younger women (aged 18-44 years) by type of insurance and stage at diagnosis. METHODS: The study used the 2012-2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, cancer incidence data from two national registry programs, and published relative risk measures to estimate the: (1) alcohol-attributable fraction of breast cancer cases among younger women by insurance type; (2) total number of breast cancer incident cases attributable to alcohol consumption by stage at diagnosis and insurance type among younger women; and (3) total annual medical care costs of treating breast cancer incident cases attributable to alcohol consumption among younger women. Analyses were conducted in 2016; costs were expressed in 2014 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: Among younger women enrolled in Medicaid, private insurance, and both groups, 8.7% (95% CI=7.4%, 10.0%), 13.8% (95% CI=13.3%, 14.4%), and 12.3% (95% CI=11.4%, 13.1%) of all breast cancer cases, respectively, were attributable to alcohol consumption. Localized stage was the largest proportion of estimated attributable incident cases. The estimated total number of breast cancer incident alcohol-attributable cases was 1,636 (95% CI=1,570, 1,703) and accounted for estimated total annual medical care costs of $148.4 million (95% CI=$140.6 million, $156.1 million). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol-attributable breast cancer has estimated medical care costs of nearly $150 million per year. The current findings could be used to support evidence-based interventions to reduce alcohol consumption in younger women.

Medical costs of treating breast cancer among younger Medicaid beneficiaries by stage at diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Younger women (aged 18-44 years) diagnosed with breast cancer often face more aggressive tumors, higher treatment intensity, and lower survival rates than older women. In this study, we estimated incident breast cancer costs by stage at diagnosis and by race for younger women enrolled in Medicaid. METHODS: We analyzed cancer registry data linked to Medicaid claims in North Carolina from 2003 to 2008. We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Summary 2000 definitions for cancer stage. We split breast cancer patients into two cohorts: a younger and older group aged 18-44 and 45-64 years, respectively. We conducted a many-to-one match between patients with and without breast cancer using age, county, race, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. We calculated mean excess total cost of care between breast cancer and non-breast cancer patients. RESULTS: At diagnosis, younger women had a higher proportion of regional cancers than older women (49 vs. 42%) and lower proportions of localized cancers (44 vs. 50%) and distant cancers (7 vs. 9%). The excess costs of breast cancer (all stages) for younger and older women at 6 months after diagnosis were $37,114 [95% confidence interval (CI) = $35,769-38,459] and $28,026 (95% CI = $27,223-28,829), respectively. In the 6 months after diagnosis, the estimated excess cost was significantly higher to treat localized and regional cancer among younger women than among older women. There were no statistically significant differences in excess costs of breast cancer by race, but differences in treatment modality were present among younger Medicaid beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: Younger breast cancer patients not only had a higher prevalence of late-stage cancer than older women, but also had higher within-stage excess costs.

Can Medicaid Claims Validly Ascertain Foster Care Status?

Medicaid claims have been used to identify populations of children in foster care in the current literature; however, the ability of such an approach to validly ascertain a foster care population is unknown. This study linked children in the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being-I to their Medicaid claims from 36 states using their Social Security numbers. Using this match, we examined discordance between caregiver report of foster care placement and the foster care eligibility code contained in the child's Medicaid claims. Only 73% of youth placed in foster care for at least a year displayed a Medicaid code for foster care eligibility. Half of all youth coming into contact with child welfare displayed discordance between caregiver report and Medicaid claims. Children with emergency department utilization, and those in primary care case management health insurance arrangements, had the highest odds of accurate ascertainment. The use of Medicaid claims to identify a cohort of children in foster care results in high rates of underascertainment. Supplementing administrative data with survey data is one way to enhance validity of ascertainment.

A new methodological approach to adjust alcohol exposure distributions to improve the estimation of alcohol-attributable fractions.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To assess the burden of excessive alcohol use, researchers estimate alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) routinely. However, under-reporting in survey data can bias these estimates. We present an approach that adjusts for under-reporting in the estimation of AAFs, particularly within subgroups. This framework is a refinement of a previous method conducted by Rehm et al. METHODS: We use a measurement error model to derive the 'true' alcohol distribution from a 'reported' alcohol distribution. The 'true' distribution leverages per-capita sales data to identify the distribution average and then identifies the shape of the distribution with self-reported survey data. Data are from the National Alcohol Survey (NAS), the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) and the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). We compared our approach with previous approaches by estimating the AAF of female breast cancer cases. RESULTS: Compared with Rehm et al.'s approach, our refinement performs similarly under a gamma assumption. For example, among females aged 18-25 years, the two approaches produce estimates from NHSDA that are within a percentage point. However, relaxing the gamma assumption generally produces more conservative evidence. For example, among females aged 18-25 years, estimates from NHSDA based on the best-fitting distribution are only 19.33% of breast cancer cases, which is a much smaller proportion than the gamma-based estimates of approximately 28%. CONCLUSIONS: A refinement of Rehm et al.'s approach to adjusting for underreporting in the estimation of alcohol-attributable fractions provides more flexibility. This flexibility can avoid biases associated with failing to account for the underlying differences in alcohol consumption patterns across different study populations. Comparisons of our refinement with Rehm et al.'s approach show that results are similar when a gamma distribution is assumed. However, results are appreciably lower when the best-fitting distribution is chosen versus gamma-based results.

Breast cancer treatment costs in younger, privately insured women.

PURPOSE: Younger women (under age 45 years) diagnosed with breast cancer often face more aggressive tumors, higher treatment intensity, lower survival rates, and greater financial hardship. The purpose of this study was to estimate breast cancer costs by stage at diagnosis during the first 18 months of treatment for privately insured younger women. METHODS: We analyzed North Carolina cancer registry data linked to claims data from private insurers from 2003 to 2010. Breast cancer patients were split into two cohorts: a younger and older group aged 21-44 and 45-64 years, respectively. We conducted a cohort study and matched women with and without breast cancer using age, ZIP, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. We calculated mean excess costs between breast cancer and non-breast cancer patients at 6, 12, and 18 months. RESULTS: For younger women, AJCC 6th edition stage II cancer was the most common at diagnosis (40%), followed by stage I (34%). On the other hand, older women had more stage I (46%) cancer followed by stage II (34%). The excess costs for younger and older women at 12 months were $97,486 (95% confidence interval [CI] $93,631-101,341) and $75,737 (95% CI $73,962-77,512), respectively. Younger breast cancer patients had both a higher prevalence of later-stage disease and higher within-stage costs. CONCLUSIONS: The study reports high costs of treatment for both younger and older women than a non-cancer comparison group; however, the estimated excess cost was significantly higher for younger women. The financial implications of breast cancer treatment costs for younger women need to be explored in future studies.

Contribution of Anal Sex to HIV Prevalence Among Heterosexuals: A Modeling Analysis.

Anal intercourse is reported by many heterosexuals, and evidence suggests that its practice may be increasing. We estimated the proportion of the HIV burden attributable to anal sex in 2015 among heterosexual women and men in the United States. The HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics model was developed using parameter inputs from the literature for the sexually active U.S. population aged 13-64. The model uses differential equations to represent the progression of the population between compartments defined by HIV disease status and continuum-of-care stages from 2007 to 2015. For heterosexual women of all ages (who do not inject drugs), almost 28% of infections were associated with anal sex, whereas for women aged 18-34, nearly 40% of HIV infections were associated with anal sex. For heterosexual men, 20% of HIV infections were associated with insertive anal sex with women. Sensitivity analyses showed that varying any of 63 inputs by ±20% resulted in no more than a 13% change in the projected number of heterosexual infections in 2015, including those attributed to anal sex. Despite uncertainties in model inputs, a substantial portion of the HIV burden among heterosexuals appears to be attributable to anal sex. Providing information about the relative risk of anal sex compared with vaginal sex may help reduce HIV incidence in heterosexuals.