Exploring Cascading Disaster Risk During Complex Emergencies: Chemical Industry Disaster Risk Assessment in the Aftermath of the Kakhovka Dam Bombing in Ukraine.

OBJECTIVE: This risk assessment aims to investigate the analysis of cascading disaster risks from the perspective of the chemical industry and public health subsequent to the Kakhovka dam bombing in Ukraine. METHOD: The study utilized a modified observational cross-sectional risk assessment method to assess disaster risk. The method involved identifying the location of chemical factories, determining flooded or at-risk factories, analyzing the type and frequency of chemical hazards, assessing population exposure, and plotting a disaster risk metric. Data on chemical industries and flood extent were collected from open-source secondary data. RESULTS: The destruction of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023 led to severe flooding, placing 42 000 individuals at risk. The analysis identified four chemical factories, with 1 affected by flooding and 3 at risk. The overall risk assessment indicated a high likelihood and severe consequences, including loss of life, environmental contamination, and property damage. CONCLUSION: The combination of complex emergencies and high-risk chemical facilities in Kherson Oblast poses a significant risk of a chemical industry disaster. The interplay between compound and cascading risks during complex emergencies amid the current war further exacerbates the situation, leading to the devastation and destruction of the environment to the detriment of life, and aligns with the characterization of ecocide.

Novel Google Maps and Google Earth application for chemical industry disaster risk assessment during complex emergencies in Eastern Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has led to complex emergencies, humanitarian crises, and other severe consequences, such as chemical industry disasters. The chemical industry is one of the principal sectors of Ukraine's economy. In 2019, Ukraine had a total volume of hazardous chemical accumulation of more than a 5.1billion tons. Therefore, an attack on chemical industrial facilities will lead to catastrophic consequences such as chemical disasters. This paper aims to study the disaster risk of chemical industrial facilities and its effects on public health and the environment during complex emergencies in Eastern Ukraine. Observational cross-sectional risk assessment method was utilized to assess hazard, vulnerability, and exposure of the chemical industry in Eastern Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast. Data on chemical factories in Eastern Ukraine was collected on Google Maps and Google Earth on May 2022. Lastly, the semi-quantitative risk assessment method was utilized to describe the risk from the perspective of consequences for life and health, the environment, property, and speed of development. Our disaster risk assessment found more than 1 million people (1,187,240 people) in Donetsk Oblast and more than 350 thousand people (353,716 people) in Luhansk Oblast are exposed to potential hazards from the chemical facilities clusters. The aggregation risk of bombardment of chemical facilities cluster in Eastern Ukraine is also high due to ongoing war. Therefore, the chemical industry disaster risks for Eastern Ukraine during complex emergencies in Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast are high in terms of likelihood and consequences to life and health, environment, property, and speed of development.