Markov chains and cellular automata to predict environments subject to desertification.

The foremost objective of this study was to analyze the performance of a Markov chain/cellular automata model for predicting land use/land cover changes in environments predisposed to desertification. The study area is the Vieira river basin, located in Montes Claros (MG, Brazil). Land use/land cover prognosis was performed for the year 2005 so that this result could be compared with the ranked image for the same year, taken as ground truth. Kappa indices were used to evaluate the change level that occurred between these two cases. Results from cellular automata were evaluated from those of the Markov chain model. The latter proved to be efficient in the quantitative prediction of changes in land use/land cover. Regarding the cellular automata, an average performance was noted in the spatial distribution of classes. Specifically, with regard to desertification, the use of the CA-Markov model was effective at estimating the total area of the most susceptible class to this process, Bare Soil; however, it was inefficient in its spatialization. Even with the caveats related to the performance of cellular automata, the overall prediction capacity of CA-Markov models can be considered as good.

Itaipu royalties: The role of the hydroelectric sector in water resource management.

For countries dependent on hydroelectricity, water scarcity poses a real risk. Hydroelectric plants are among the most vulnerable enterprises to climate change. Investing in the conservation of the hydrographic basin is a solution found by the hydropower sector. Given the importance of the Itaipu plant to the energy matrix of Brazil and Paraguay, the aim of this study is to review the current distribution of royalties from Itaipu, using the hydrographic basin as a of criterion of analysis. Approximately 98.73% of the Itaipu basin is in Brazil. The flow contributes 99% of the total electricity generated there, while the drop height of the water contributes only 1%. Under the current policy, royalties are shared equally between Brazil and Paraguay. In the proposed approach, each country would receive a percentage for their participation in the drop height and water flow in the output of the turbines, which are intrinsic factors for electricity generation. Thus, Brazil would receive 98.35% of the royalties and Paraguay, 1.65%. The inclusion of the hydrographic basin as a criterion for the distribution of royalties will promote more efficient water resource management, since the payment will be distributed throughout the basin of the plant. The methodology can be applied to hydroelectric projects worldwide.

Floristic composition and similarity of 15 hectares in Central Amazon, Brazil

The Amazon region is one of the most diverse areas in the world. Research on high tropical forest diversity brings up relevant contributions to understand the mechanisms that result and support such diversity. In the present study we describe the species composition and diversity of 15 one-ha plots in the Amazonian terra firme dense forest in Brazil, and compare the floristic similarity of these plots with other nine one-ha plots. The 15 plots studied were randomly selected from permanent plots at the Embrapa Experimental site, Amazonas State in 2005. The diversity was analysed by using species richness and Shannon’s index, and by applying the Sorensen’s index for similarity and unweighted pair-group average (UPGMA) as clustering method. Mantel test was performed to study whether the differences in species composition between sites could be explained by the geographic distance between them. Overall, we identified 8 771 individuals, 264 species and 51 plant families. Most of the species were concentrated in few families and few had large number of individuals. Families presenting the highest species richness were Fabaceae (Faboideae: 22spp., Mimosoideae: 22spp.), Sapotaceae: 22spp., Lecythidaceae: 15 and Lauraceae: 13. Burseraceae had the largest number of individuals with 11.8% of the total. The ten most abundant species were: Protium hebetatum (1 037 individuals), Eschweilera coriacea (471), Licania oblongifolia (310), Pouteria minima (293), Ocotea cernua (258), Scleronema micranthum (197), Eschweilera collina (176), Licania apelata (172), Naucleopsis caloneura (170) and Psidium araca (152), which represented 36.5% of all individuals. Approximately 49% of species had up to ten individuals and 13% appeared only once in all sampled plots, showing a large occurrence of rare species. Our study area is on a forest presenting a high tree species diversity with Shannon’s diversity index of 4.49. The dendrogram showed two groups of plots with low similarity between them (less than 0.25), and the closer the plots were one to another, more similar in species composition (Mantel R=0.3627, p<0.01). The 15 plots in our study area share more than 50% of their species composition and represent the group of plots that have the shortest distance between each other. Overall, our results highlight the high local and regional heterogeneity of environments in terra firme forests, and the high occurrence of rare species, which should be considered in management and conservation programs in the Amazon rainforest, in order to maintain its structure on the long run. Rev. Biol. Trop. 59 (4): 1927-1938. Epub 2011 December 01.

La región amazónica es una de las más diversas áreas del mundo. Los estudios sobre la gran diversidad de bosques tropicales generan contribuciones relevantes en la comprensión de los mecanismos que originan y apoyan tal diversidad. En el presente estudio se describe la composición de las especies y la diversidad de 15 parcelas de una hectárea en el bosque denso amazónico terra firme en Brasil, y compara la similitud florística de estas parcelas con otras nueve parcelas de una hectárea. Las 15 parcelas estudiadas fueron seleccionadas al azar, en el 2005, de parcelas permanentes en el sitio experimental de Embrapa, Estado de Amazonas. La diversidad fue analizada utilizando la riqueza de especies y el índice de Shannon, así como el índice de Similitud de Sorensen; y como método de agrupación se utilizó el promedio no ponderado por grupo (UPGMA). La prueba de Mantel se llevó a cabo para estudiar si las diferencias en la composición de especies entre los sitios podrían ser explicadas por la distancia geográfica entre ellos. En general, se identificaron 8 771 individuos, 264 especies y 51 familias de plantas. La mayoría de las especies se concentraron en pocas familias y pocas tenían un gran número de individuos. Las familias que presentaron la mayor riqueza de especies fueron: Fabaceae (Faboideae: 22spp, Mimosoideae: 22spp), Sapotaceae: 22spp, Lecythidaceae: 15 y Lauraceae: 13. Burseraceae tuvo el mayor número de individuos con un 11.8% del total. Las diez especies más abundantes fueron: Protium hebetatum (1 037 individuos), Eschweilera coriacea (471), Licania oblongifolia (310), Pouteria minima (293), Ocotea cernua (258), Scleronema micranthum (197), Eschweilera collina (176), Licania apelata (172), Naucleopsis caloneura (170) y Psidium araca (152), que representó un 36.5% de todos los individuos. Aproximadamente en el 49% de las especies se encontraron hasta diez individuos, mientras que el 13% de las especies apareció sólo una vez en todas las parcelas de muestreo, lo que demuestra una alta presencia de especies raras. La zona de estudio se encuentra en un bosque con alta diversidad de especies de árboles, con un índice de diversidad de Shannon de 4.49. El dendrograma mostró dos grupos de parcelas con baja similitud entre ellas (menos de 0.25), y entre más cercanas las parcelas, más similares en composición de especies fueron (Mantel R=0.3627, p<0.01). Las 15 parcelas en nuestra área de estudio compartieron más del 50% de su composición de especies y representaron el grupo de parcelas con la menor distancia entre ellas. En general, nuestros resultados ponen de manifiesto la alta heterogeneidad local y regional de los ambientes de los bosques de terra firme, y la gran concurrencia de especies raras, lo cual debe ser considerado en los planes de manejo y conservación de la selva amazónica, con el fin de mantener su estructura a largo plazo.