Country-report pattern corrections of new cases allow accurate 2-week predictions of COVID-19 evolution with the Gompertz model.

Accurate short-term predictions of COVID-19 cases with empirical models allow Health Officials to prepare for hospital contingencies in a two-three week window given the delay between case reporting and the admission of patients in a hospital. We investigate the ability of Gompertz-type empiric models to provide accurate prediction up to two and three weeks to give a large window of preparation in case of a surge in virus transmission. We investigate the stability of the prediction and its accuracy using bi-weekly predictions during the last trimester of 2020 and 2021. Using data from 2020, we show that understanding and correcting for the daily reporting structure of cases in the different countries is key to accomplish accurate predictions. Furthermore, we found that filtering out predictions that are highly unstable to changes in the parameters of the model, which are roughly 20%, reduces strongly the number of predictions that are way-off. The method is then tested for robustness with data from 2021. We found that, for this data, only 1-2% of the one-week predictions were off by more than 50%. This increased to 3% for two-week predictions, and only for three-week predictions it reached 10%.

Cardiac contraction induces discordant alternans and localized block.

In this paper we use a simplified model of cardiac excitation-contraction coupling to study the effect of tissue deformation on the dynamics of alternans, i.e., alternations in the duration of the cardiac action potential, that occur at fast pacing rates and are known to be proarrhythmic. We show that small stretch-activated currents can produce large effects and cause a transition from in-phase to off-phase alternations (i.e., from concordant to discordant alternans) and to conduction blocks. We demonstrate numerically and analytically that this effect is the result of a generic change in the slope of the conduction velocity restitution curve due to electromechanical coupling. Thus, excitation-contraction coupling can potentially play a relevant role in the transition to reentry and fibrillation.

Identification of intracellular calcium dynamics in stimulated cardiomyocytes.

We have developed an automatic method for the analysis and identification of dynamical regimes in intracellular calcium patterns from confocal calcium images. The method allows the identification of different dynamical patterns such as spatially concordant and discordant alternans, irregular behavior or phase-locking regimes such as period doubling or halving. The method can be applied to the analysis of different cardiac pathologies related to anomalies at the cellular level such as ventricular reentrant arrhythmias.

Global coupling in excitable media provides a simplified description of mechanoelectrical feedback in cardiac tissue.

Cardiac mechanoelectric feedback can play an important role in different heart pathologies. In this paper, we show that mechanoelectric models which describe both the electric propagation and the mechanic contraction of cardiac tissue naturally lead to close systems of equations with global coupling among the variables. This point is exemplified using the Nash-Panfilov model, which reduces to a FitzHugh-Nagumo-type equation with global coupling in the linear elastic regime. We explain the appearance of self-oscillatory regimes in terms of the system nullclines and describe the different dynamical attractors. Finally, we study their basin of attraction in terms of the system size and the strength of the stretch-induced currents.

Slow and fast pulses in 1-D cultures of excitatory neurons.

We analyze the characteristics of front propagation in activity of 1-D neuronal cultures by numerical simulations, using only excitatory dynamics. Experimental results in 1-D cultures of hippocampal neurons from rats have shown the spontaneous generation of a slow, low amplitude pulse that precedes a high amplitude, fast pulse that propagates through all the system. Notably, this transition appears both with and without the presence of functioning inhibitory synapses. In accordance with previous work, we demonstrate that purely excitatory integrate and fire neurons with depression in the synapses suffice to produce fast and uniform pulses but cannot explain the appearance of slow, weak pulses. We propose to explain the slow pulses by increasing the complexity of the neuron model in a purely excitatory network with connectivity as close to the experiments as possible. This approach allows us to show that spike frequency adaptation is a fundamental ingredient for the initiation process of the pulse. The introduction of a slow variable that mimics the presence of the slow K(+) channels in the soma and produces spike frequency adaptation increases strongly the persistence of the transient activity before the emergence of the fast pulse up to temporal and spatial scales comparable with the experiments. Finally, we demonstrate that proper levels of additive white noisy currents generate such pulses spontaneously, fully reproducing the experimental results.

Pattern formation and interface pinch-off in rotating Hele-Shaw flows: a phase-field approach.

Viscous fingering dynamics driven by centrifugal forcing is studied for arbitrary viscosity contrast. Theoretical methods, including exact solutions, and numerics based on a phase-field approach are used. Both confirm that pinch-off singularities in patterns originated from the centrifugally driven instability may occur spontaneously and be inherent to the two-dimensional Hele-Shaw dynamics. They are systematically more frequent for lower viscosity contrasts consistently with experimental evidence. The analytical insights provide an interpretation of this fact in terms of the asymptotic matching of the different regions of the fingering patterns. The phase-field numerical scheme is shown to be particularly adequate to elucidate the existence of finite-time singularities through the dependence of the singularity time on the interface thickness, in particular for varying viscosity contrast.

Pinch-off singularities in rotating Hele-Shaw flows at high viscosity contrast.

We study the evolution of a family of dumbbell-shaped liquid patches surrounded by air inside a rotating Hele-Shaw cell with lubrication methods and numerical simulations. Depending on initial conditions, the dumbbell either stretches to infinity, pinches off at the neck to form a droplet, or collects into a circular drop at the center of rotation. Whether or not pinch-off occurs results from a subtle interplay between centrifugal and capillary forces. In particular, rotation may delay or even prevent pinch-off from occurring owing to stretching and smoothing of the fluid neck. However, frequently rotation may have the opposite effect leading to pinch-off where the relaxation toward a circular drop would be observed in an ordinary Hele-Shaw cell.

Relevance of dynamic wetting in viscous fingering patterns.

We demonstrate that wetting effects at moving contact lines have a strong impact in viscous fingering patterns. Experiments in a rotating Hele-Shaw (HS) cell, dry or prewetted, show consistent morphological differences. When the wetting fluid invades a dry region, contact angle dynamics yield a kinetic contribution to the interface pressure drop that scales with capillary number as Ca(2/3) but is significantly larger than the Park-Homsy kinetic correction. Numerical results are in very good agreement with experiments and show that standard HS equations work best for prewetted cells.

Hierarchical structures induce long-range dynamical correlations in written texts.

Thoughts and ideas are multidimensional and often concurrent, yet they can be expressed surprisingly well sequentially by the translation into language. This reduction of dimensions occurs naturally but requires memory and necessitates the existence of correlations, e.g., in written text. However, correlations in word appearance decay quickly, while previous observations of long-range correlations using random walk approaches yield little insight on memory or on semantic context. Instead, we study combinations of words that a reader is exposed to within a "window of attention," spanning about 100 words. We define a vector space of such word combinations by looking at words that co-occur within the window of attention, and analyze its structure. Singular value decomposition of the co-occurrence matrix identifies a basis whose vectors correspond to specific topics, or "concepts" that are relevant to the text. As the reader follows a text, the "vector of attention" traces out a trajectory of directions in this "concept space." We find that memory of the direction is retained over long times, forming power-law correlations. The appearance of power laws hints at the existence of an underlying hierarchical network. Indeed, imposing a hierarchy similar to that defined by volumes, chapters, paragraphs, etc. succeeds in creating correlations in a surrogate random text that are identical to those of the original text. We conclude that hierarchical structures in text serve to create long-range correlations, and use the reader's memory in reenacting some of the multidimensionality of the thoughts being expressed.

Molecular model of the contractile ring.

We present a model for the actin contractile ring of adherent animal cells. The model suggests that the actin concentration within the ring and consequently the power that the ring exerts both increase during contraction. We demonstrate the crucial role of actin polymerization and depolymerization throughout cytokinesis, and the dominance of viscous dissipation in the dynamics. The physical origin of two phases in cytokinesis dynamics ("biphasic cytokinesis") follows from a limitation on the actin density. The model is consistent with a wide range of measurements of the midzone of dividing animal cells.

Nonlinear Saffman-Taylor instability.

We show, both theoretically and experimentally, that the interface between two viscous fluids in a Hele-Shaw cell can be nonlinearly unstable before the Saffman-Taylor linear instability point is reached. We identify the family of exact elastica solutions [Nye et al., Eur. J. Phys. 5, 73 (1984)]] as the unstable branch of the corresponding subcritical bifurcation which ends up at a topological singularity defined by interface pinchoff. We devise an experimental procedure to prepare arbitrary initial conditions in a Hele-Shaw cell. This is used to test the proposed bifurcation scenario and quantitatively asses its practical relevance.

Systematic weakly nonlinear analysis of radial viscous fingering.

We present a weakly nonlinear analysis of the interface dynamics in a radial Hele-Shaw cell driven by both injection and rotation. We extend the systematic expansion introduced in [E. Alvarez-Lacalle et al., Phys. Rev. E 64, 016302 (2001)] to the radial geometry, and compute explicitly the first nonlinear contributions. We also find the necessary and sufficient condition for the uniform convergence of the nonlinear expansion. Within this region of convergence, the analytical predictions at low orders are compared satisfactorily to exact solutions and numerical integration of the problem. This is particularly remarkable in configurations (with no counterpart in the channel geometry) for which the interplay between injection and rotation allows that condition to be satisfied at all times. In the case of the purely centrifugal forcing we demonstrate that nonlinear couplings make the interface more unstable for lower viscosity contrast between the fluids.

Systematic weakly nonlinear analysis of interfacial instabilities in Hele-Shaw flows.

We develop a systematic method to derive all orders of mode couplings in a weakly nonlinear approach to the dynamics of the interface between two immiscible viscous fluids in a Hele-Shaw cell. The method is completely general: it applies to arbitrary geometry and driving. Here we apply it to the channel geometry driven by gravity and pressure. The finite radius of convergence of the mode-coupling expansion is found. Calculation up to third-order couplings is done, which is necessary to account for the time-dependent Saffman-Taylor finger solution and the case of zero viscosity contrast. The explicit results provide relevant analytical information about the role that the viscosity contrast and the surface tension play in the dynamics of the system. We finally check the quantitative validity of different orders of approximation and a resummation scheme against a physically relevant, exact time-dependent solution. The agreement between the low-order approximations and the exact solution is excellent within the radius of convergence, and is even reasonably good beyond this radius.