Impacts on South America moisture transport under Amazon deforestation and 2 °C global warming.

The increase in greenhouse gasses (GHG) anthropogenic emissions and deforestation over the last decades have led to many chemical and physical changes in the climate system, affecting the atmosphere's energy and water balance. A process that could be affected is the Amazonian moisture transport in the South American continent (including La Plata basin), which is crucial to the southeast Brazilian water regime. The focus of our research is on evaluating how local (i.e. Amazon deforestation) and global forcings (increase of atmospheric GHG concentration) may modify this moisture transport under climate change scenarios. We used two coupled land-atmosphere models forced by CMIP6 sea surface temperatures to simulate these processes for two scenarios: i) increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) - RCP8.5 atmospheric levels (00DEF), and ii) total Amazon deforestation simultaneous with atmospheric CO2 levels increased (100DEF). These scenarios were compared with a control simulation, set with a constant CO2 of 388 ppm and present-day Amazon Forest cover. The 30-year Specific Warming Level 2 (SWL2) index evaluated from the simulations is set to be reached 2 years earlier due to Amazon deforestation. A reduction in precipitation was observed in the Amazon basin (-3.1 mm·day-1) as well as in La Plata Basin (-0.5 mm·day-1) due to reductions in the Amazon evapotranspiration (-0.9 mm·day-1) through a stomatal conductance decrease (00DEF) and land cover change (100DEF). In addition, the income moisture transport decreased (22 %) in the northern La Plata basin in both scenarios and model experiments. Our results indicated a worse scenario than previously found in the region. Both Amazon and La Plata hydrological regimes are connected (moisture and energy transport), indicating that a large-scale Amazon deforestation will have additional climate, economic and social implications for South America.

Effects of climate and land-use change scenarios on fire probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon.

The joint and relative effects of future land-use and climate change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined regional land-use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire occurrence in the mid (2041-2070) and late (2071-2100) 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the months, with October showing the highest overall change. Considering climate only, the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 (a threshold chosen based on the literature) in October increases 6.9% by 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 27.7% under the RCP 8.5. The best-case land-use scenario ("Sustainability") alone causes a 10.6% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3, while the worse-case land-use scenario ("Fragmentation") causes a 73.2% increase. The optimistic climate-land-use projection (Sustainability and RCP 4.5) causes a 21.3% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 in October by 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period. In contrast, the most pessimistic climate-land-use projection (Fragmentation and RCP 8.5) causes a widespread increase in FRP (113.5% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3), and prolongs the fire season, displacing its peak. Combining the Sustainability land-use and RCP 8.5 scenarios causes a 39.1% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3. We conclude that avoiding the regress on land-use governance in the Brazilian Amazon (i.e., decrease in the extension and level of conservation of the protected areas, reduced environmental laws enforcement, extensive road paving, and increased deforestation) would substantially mitigate the effects of climate change on fire probability, even under the most pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario.

Multi-layered water resources, management, and uses under the impacts of global changes in a southern coastal metropolis: When will it be already too late? Crossed analysis in Recife, NE Brazil.

Coastal water resources are a worldwide key socio-environmental issue considering the increasing concentration of population in these areas. Here, we propose an integrative transdisciplinary approach of water resource, water management and water access in Recife (NE Brazil). The present-day water situation is conceptualized as an imbricated multi-layered system: a multi-layered water resource, managed by a multi-layered governance system and used by a multi-layered social population. This allows identifying processes of quantitative, qualitative, and sanitary conflicts between governance and population strategies regarding water supply, as well as the institutional and individual denials of these conflicts. Based on this model, we anticipate future water-related problematic fates. Concerning the water resource system, the rapid groundwater level decrease due to unsustainable water predatory strategies, and the very low recharge rate have drastically modified the aquifer system functioning, inducing hydraulic connection between shallow groundwater (contaminated and locally salty) and deep ones (mostly fresh, with local inherited salinity), threatening the deep strategic water resource. Concerning the water governance system, the investments to increase the capacity storage of surface water, the water regulation agencies and the public/private partnership should shortly improve the water supply and wastewater issue. Nevertheless, the water situation will remain highly fragile due to the expected water demand increase, the precipitation decrease and the sea-level increase. Concerning the water access system, the population variably perceives these current and further effects and the possible mitigation policies, and develops alternative individual strategies. Authorities, policymakers and water managers will have to implement a well-balanced water governance, taking into account the specificities of the PPP, public and private groundwater users, and with a strong political willingness for a sustainable water management to ensure water supply for all the population. In other words, an anticipatory and integrated vision is necessary to reduce the discrepancies in this complex system.