The One Health approach to incident management of the 2019 Lassa fever outbreak response in Nigeria.

Globally, effective emergency response to disease outbreaks is usually affected by weak coordination. However, coordination using an incident management system (IMS) in line with a One Health approach involving human, environment, and animal health with collaborations between government and non-governmental agencies result in improved response outcome for zoonotic diseases such as Lassa fever (LF). We provide an overview of the 2019 LF outbreak response in Nigeria using the IMS and One Health approach. The response was coordinated via ten Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) response pillars. Cardinal response activities included activation of EOC, development of an incident action plan, deployment of One Health rapid response teams to support affected states, mid-outbreak review and after-action review meetings. Between 1st January and 29th December 2019, of the 5057 people tested for LF, 833 were confirmed positive from 23 States, across 86 Local Government Areas. Of the 833 confirmed cases, 650 (78%) were from hotspot States of Edo (36%), Ondo (26%) and Ebonyi (16%). Those in the age-group 21-40 years (47%) were mostly affected, with a male to female ratio of 1:1. Twenty healthcare workers were affected. Two LF naïve states Kebbi and Zamfara, reported confirmed cases for the first time during this period. The outbreak peaked earlier in the year compared to previous years, and the emergency phase of the outbreak was declared over by epidemiological week 17 based on low national threshold composite indicators over a period of six consecutive weeks. Multisectoral and multidisciplinary strategic One Health EOC coordination at all levels facilitated the swift containment of Nigeria's large LF outbreak in 2019. It is therefore imperative to embrace One Health approach embedded within the EOC to holistically address the increasing LF incidence in Nigeria.

Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria.

Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease's true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning.

Factors associated with delayed presentation to healthcare facilities for Lassa fever cases, Nigeria 2019: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Large outbreaks of Lassa fever (LF) occur annually in Nigeria. The case fatality rate among hospitalised cases is ~ 20%. The antiviral drug ribavirin along with supportive care and rehydration are the recommended treatments but must be administered early (within 6 days of symptom onset) for optimal results. We aimed to identify factors associated with late presentation of LF cases to a healthcare facility to inform interventions. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of all laboratory confirmed LF cases reported in Nigeria from December 2018 to April 2019. We performed descriptive epidemiology and a univariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis to investigate the effect of clinical (symptom severity), epidemiological (age, sex, education, occupation, residential State) and exposure (travel, attendance at funeral, exposure to rodents or confirmed case) factors on time to presentation. RESULTS: Of 389 cases, median presentation time was 6 days (IQR 4-10 days), with 53% attending within 6 days. There were no differences in presentation times by sex but differences were noted by age-group; 60+ year-olds had the longest delays while 13-17 year-olds had the shortest. By sex and age, there were differences seen among the younger ages, with 0-4-year-old females presenting earlier than males (4 days and 73% vs. 10 days and 30%). For 5-12 and 13-17 year-olds, males presented sooner than females (males: 5 days, 65% and 3 days, 85% vs. females: 6 days, 50% and 5 days, 61%, respectively). Presentation times differed across occupations 4.5-9 days and 20-60%, transporters (people who drive informal public transport vehicles) had the longest delays. Other data were limited (41-95% missing). However, the Cox regression showed no factors were statistically associated with longer presentation time. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst we observed important differences in presentation delays across factors, our sample size was insufficient to show any statistically significant differences that might exist. However, almost half of cases presented after 6 days of onset, highlighting the need for more accurate and complete surveillance data to determine if there is a systemic or specific cause for delays, so to inform, monitor and evaluate public health strategies and improve outcomes.

Cerebral atrophy and dementia in type 2 diabetes mellitus: report of two cases and review of literature.

A report of two cases of cerebral atrophy and dementia possibly arising as a result of poor control of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus are presented The two elderly patients presented to the old age Psychiatric clinic with history of impairment in memory and changes in personality. They had a history of long standing poorly controlled diabetes mellitus. They were assessed using psychometric instruments, laboratory investigation and neuro-imaging. A diagnosis of dementia was made in each of two the patients. The aim of this case report is to draw the attention of the medical community and policy makers to the relationship between type 2 diabetes mellitus and dementia with a view to evolving policy change on the care for the elderly in Nigeria.