External control arms in oncology: current use and future directions.

Although randomized control trials allow for a comparison of treatment arms with minimal concern for confounding by known and unknown factors, a randomized study is not feasible in certain disease settings. When a randomized design is not possible, incorporating external control data into the study design can be an effective way to expand the interpretability of the results of an experimental arm by introducing the ability to carry out a formal or an informal comparative analysis. This paper provides an introduction to the concepts of external controls in oncology trials, followed by a review of relevant and current research on this topic. The paper also focuses on general considerations for designing a trial that may incorporate external control data, followed by case studies of the marketing applications submitted to the Food and Drug Administration that included external control data.

A Food and Drug Administration analysis of survival outcomes comparing the Adjuvant Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab trial with an external control from historical clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Although the Adjuvant Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab (APT) trial has been adopted clinically, single-arm trials have limitations, and interest remains whether these patients with small node-negative human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive early breast cancer (EBC) would benefit from more intensive chemotherapy. This analysis explored whether external controls can contextualize single-arm studies to add to clinical decision making in the use of de-escalated therapy in patients with low-risk HER2-positive EBC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patient-level data from five randomized trials supporting drug approval in adjuvant HER2-positive EBC were pooled, and patients with low-risk EBC were selected (n = 1770). Patients treated concurrently with trastuzumab and either anthracycline/cyclophosphamide/taxane/trastuzumab (ACTH) or taxane/carboplatin/trastuzumab (TCH; n = 1366) were matched (1:1) to patients treated with paclitaxel and trastuzumab (TH) in the APT trial (n = 406) using propensity scores. Patients treated with anthracycline/cyclophosphamide/taxane (ACT; n = 374) were also matched (1:1) to those treated with TH. Propensity scores were estimated using covariates of age, tumor stage, estrogen receptor status, progesterone receptor status, and histological grade. RESULTS: After matching, the estimated probabilities of invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) at 3 and 5 years were 98.6% and 96.5% in the TH arm, and 96.6% and 92.9% in the ACTH/TCH arm, respectively. The estimated probabilities of overall survival (OS) at 3 and 5 years were 99.7% and 99.3% in the TH arm, and 99.0% and 97.4% in the ACTH/TCH arm, respectively. Comparing the TH arm with the ACT arm in the matched sample, the estimated difference in iDFS was 7.5% (TH 98.8% and ACT 91.3%) at 3 years and 12.6% (TH 96.1% and ACT 83.5%) at 5 years. The estimated difference in OS was 2.6% (TH 100% and ACT 97.4%) at 3 years, and 5.3% (TH 99.3% and ACT 94.0%) at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that patients' outcomes in both arms were in general similar, thus providing additional reassurance regarding de-escalation of therapy.

ANG1005 for breast cancer brain metastases: correlation between 18F-FLT-PET after first cycle and MRI in response assessment.

PURPOSE: Improved therapies and imaging modalities are needed for the treatment of breast cancer brain metastases (BCBM). ANG1005 is a drug conjugate consisting of paclitaxel covalently linked to Angiopep-2, designed to cross the blood-brain barrier. We conducted a biomarker substudy to evaluate 18F-FLT-PET for response assessment. METHODS: Ten patients with measurable BCBM received ANG1005 at a dose of 550 mg/m2 IV every 21 days. Before and after cycle 1, patients underwent PET imaging with 18F-FLT, a thymidine analog, retention of which reflects cellular proliferation, for comparison with gadolinium-contrast magnetic resonance imaging (Gd-MRI) in brain metastases detection and response assessment. A 20 % change in uptake after one cycle of ANG1005 was deemed significant. RESULTS: Thirty-two target and twenty non-target metastatic brain lesions were analyzed. The median tumor reduction by MRI after cycle 1 was -17.5 % (n = 10 patients, lower, upper quartiles: -25.5, -4.8 %) in target lesion size compared with baseline. Fifteen of twenty-nine target lesions (52 %) and 12/20 nontarget lesions (60 %) showed a ≥20 % decrease post-therapy in FLT-PET SUV change (odds ratio 0.71, 95 % CI: 0.19, 2.61). The median percentage change in SUVmax was -20.9 % (n = 29 lesions; lower, upper quartiles: -42.4, 2.0 %), and the median percentage change in SUV80 was also -20.9 % (n = 29; lower, upper quartiles: -49.0, 0.0 %). Two patients had confirmed partial responses by PET and MRI lasting 6 and 18 cycles, respectively. Seven patients had stable disease, receiving a median of six cycles. CONCLUSIONS: ANG1005 warrants further study in BCBM. Results demonstrated a moderately strong association between MRI and 18F-FLT-PET imaging.

Exposure-response relationship of T-DM1: insight into dose optimization for patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer.

Exposure-response (E-R) analyses for ado-trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1, Kadcyla) were performed using data from a randomized, active control (lapatinib plus capecitabine) trial in patients with human epidermal growth factor 2-positive metastatic breast cancer. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses stratified by T-DM1 trough concentration on day 21 of cycle 1 (Cmin,C1D21) were performed for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). E-R analyses indicated that after adjusting for baseline risk factors, higher T-DM1 exposure is associated with improved efficacy. T-DM1-treated patients with Cmin,C1D21 lower than the median value had values of OS and PFS comparable to those of the active control arm. The percentage of patients who received T-DM1 dose adjustments was similar across the exposure range and was lower than that of the active control arm. Our findings suggest that there may be an opportunity to optimize Kadcyla dose in the patient subgroup with low T-DM1 exposure for improved efficacy with acceptable tolerability.