PREDICT-TBI: Comparison of Physician Predictions with the IMPACT Model to Predict 6-Month Functional Outcome in Traumatic Brain Injury.

BACKGROUND: Predicting functional outcome in critically ill patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) strongly influences end-of-life decisions and information for surrogate decision makers. Despite well-validated prognostic models, clinicians most often rely on their subjective perception of prognosis. In this study, we aimed to compare physicians' predictions with the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) prognostic model for predicting an unfavorable functional outcome at 6 months after moderate or severe TBI. METHODS: PREDICT-TBI is a prospective study of patients with moderate to severe TBI. Patients were admitted to a neurocritical care unit and were excluded if they died or had withdrawal of life-sustaining treatments within the first 24 h. In a paired study design, we compared the accuracy of physician prediction on day 1 with the prediction of the IMPACT model as two diagnostic tests in predicting unfavorable outcome 6 months after TBI. Unfavorable outcome was assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale from 1 to 3 by using a structured telephone interview. The primary end point was the difference between the discrimination ability of the physician and the IMPACT model assessed by the area under the curve. RESULTS: Of the 93 patients with inclusion and exclusion criteria, 80 patients reached the primary end point. At 6 months, 29 patients (36%) had unfavorable outcome. A total of 31 clinicians participated in the study. Physicians' predictions showed an area under the curve of 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.68-0.89), against 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.69-0.91) for the laboratory IMPACT model, with no statistical difference (p = 0.88). Both approaches were well calibrated. Agreement between physicians was moderate (κ = 0.56). Lack of experience was not associated with prediction accuracy (p = 0.58). CONCLUSIONS: Predictions made by physicians for functional outcome were overall moderately accurate, and no statistical difference was found with the IMPACT models, possibly due to a lack of power. The significant variability between physician assessments suggests prediction could be improved through peer reviewing, with the support of the IMPACT models, to provide a realistic expectation of outcome to families and guide discussions about end-of-life decisions.

Circulating dipeptidyl peptidase-3 at admission is associated with circulatory failure, acute kidney injury and death in severely ill burn patients.

BACKGROUND: Dipeptidyl peptidase-3 (DPP3) is a metallopeptidase which cleaves bioactive peptides, notably angiotensin II, and is involved in inflammation regulation. DPP3 has been proposed to be a myocardial depressant factor and to be involved in circulatory failure in acute illnesses, possibly due to angiotensin II cleavage. In this study, we evaluated the association between plasmatic DPP3 level and outcome (mortality and hemodynamic failure) in severely ill burn patients. METHODS: In this biomarker analysis of a prospective cohort study, we included severely ill adult burn patients in two tertiary burn intensive care units. DPP3 was measured at admission (DPP3admin) and 3 days after. The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were hemodynamic failure and acute kidney injury (AKI). RESULTS: One hundred and eleven consecutive patients were enrolled. The median age was 48 (32.5-63) years, with a median total body surface area burned of 35% (25-53.5) and Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) of 8 (7-11). Ninety-day mortality was 32%. The median DPP3admin was significantly higher in non-survivors versus survivors (53.3 ng/mL [IQR 28.8-103.5] versus 27.1 ng/mL [IQR 19.4-38.9]; p < 0.0001). Patients with a sustained elevated DPP3 had an increased risk of death compared to patients with high DPP3admin but decreased levels on day 3. Patients with circulatory failure had higher DPP3admin (39.2 ng/mL [IQR 25.9-76.1] versus 28.4 ng/mL [IQR 19.8-39.6]; p = 0.001) as well as patients with AKI (49.7 ng/mL [IQR 30.3-87.3] versus 27.6 ng/mL [IQR 19.4-41.4]; p = 0.001). DPP3admin added prognostic value on top of ABSI (added chi2 12.2, p = 0.0005), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score at admission (added chi2 4.9, p = 0.0268), and plasma lactate at admission (added chi2 6.9, p = 0.0086) to predict circulatory failure within the first 48 h. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma DPP3 concentration at admission was associated with an increased risk of death, circulatory failure, and AKI in severely burned patients. Whether DPP3 plasma levels could identify patients who would respond to alternative hemodynamic support strategies, such as intravenous angiotensin II, should be explored.

PenKid measurement at admission is associated with outcome in severely ill burn patients.

BACKGROUND: Proenkephalin A 119-159 (penKid) has been proposed as a sensitive biomarker of renal function. This study evaluated the association of concentrations of plasma penKid with death and risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) in severely ill burn patients. METHODS: A prospective observational study in two centers with severely ill adult burn patients was conducted. The inclusion criteria were total body surface area (TBSA) burns >15%, with burn injury occurring <72 h before intensive care unit (ICU) admission and plasma sample taken at admission. The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. The secondary endpoints were AKI and a combined endpoint of 90-day mortality and/or AKI. Mortality was also evaluated in the sub-group of patients with sub-clinical AKI, defined as a patient without AKI but with elevated penKid. RESULTS: A total of 113 consecutive patients were enrolled. The median age was 48 years (Interquartile range [IQR] 33-64), the median burn TBSA was 35% (IQR 25-53), and 90-day mortality was 31.9%. Thirty-one percent of the patients had AKI, and 41.6% of patients had the combined endpoint. There was a stepwise decrease in survival from patients without AKI, sub-AKI, and with AKI (survival rate 90.0% [95% CI 82.7-97.9], 66.7% [95% CI 48.1-92.4], and 31.4% [95% CI 19.3-51.3], respectively, p < 0.001). Plasma penKid concentration was significantly higher in non-survivors compared to survivors (86.9 pmol/L [IQR 53.3-166.1] versus 52.9 pmol/L [IQR 37.1-70.7]; p = 0.0001) and in patients with AKI compared to patients without AKI (86.4 pmol/L [IQR 56.5-153.4] versus 52.5 pmol/L [IQR 35.5-71.2]; p < 0.001). Penkid provided added value on top of serum creatinine (Screat) and Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores to predict 90-day mortality (combined c-index of 0.738 versus 0.707; p = 0.024 and 0.787 versus 0.752; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Plasma penKid concentration at admission was associated with an increased risk of death in burn patients. PenKid has additional prognostic value on top of Screat and SOFA to predict 90-day mortality.