Global burden of cardiovascular diseases: projections from 2025 to 2050.

AIMS: The prediction of future trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and their risk factors can assist policy-makers in healthcare planning. This study aims to project geospatial trends in CVDs and their underlying risk factors from 2025 to 2050. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using historical data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, encompassing the period of 1990 to 2019, Poisson regression was performed to model mortality and DALYs associated with CVD and its associated risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Subgroup analysis was based on GBD super-regions. Between 2025 and 2050, a 90.0% increase in cardiovascular prevalence, 73.4% increase in crude mortality, and 54.7% increase in crude DALYs are projected, with an expected 35.6 million cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025). However, age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence will be relatively constant (-3.6%), with decreasing age-standardized mortality (-30.5%) and age-standardized DALYs (-29.6%). In 2050, ischaemic heart disease will remain the leading cause of cardiovascular deaths (20 million deaths) while high systolic blood pressure will be the main cardiovascular risk factor driving mortality (18.9 million deaths). Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region is set to incur the highest age-standardized cardiovascular mortality rate in 2050 (305 deaths per 100 000 population). CONCLUSION: In the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases. REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

The global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden is expected to rise in the next few decades, driven primarily by an ageing populace worldwide. When standardized by age and population, CVD prevalence is expected to remain relatively constant, while mortality is expected to fall. This suggests that the effects of primary prevention efforts are set to remain roughly constant, while worldwide treatment outcomes are anticipated to improve.High blood pressures, dietary risks, and high cholesterol are the predominant risk factors expected to drive cardiovascular diseases from 2025 to 2050. A high body-mass index is likely to see a rapid rise in certain regions. Effective region-specific interventions are vital to arrest the CVD trajectory.

The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.

Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Findings: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). Interpretation: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. Funding: This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).

General Public's knowledge, awareness, and perception of Cardiometabolic diseases: data from a Singapore study population.

Background: Health literacy and illness perception play crucial roles in tackling the cardiometabolic disease epidemic. We aim to compare the attitudes, knowledge, self-perceived risks and actions taken, between individuals with and without metabolic risk factors (MFs). Methods: From 5 June to 5 October 2022, participants of the general public were invited to complete a self-administered questionnaire. MF status was defined as the presence of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus and/or current/previous smoking. Participants were assessed based on four categories (knowledge-based, attitude-based, perceived risk, and action-based) of questions pertaining to four cardiometabolic diseases - diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Results: A total of 345 participants were enrolled, of whom 34.5% had at least one MF. Compared to those without MFs, participants with MFs had lower knowledge scores, but higher perceived risk scores across all cardiometabolic diseases. The largest knowledge gap pertained to hypertension-related questions. After adjustment, linear regression demonstrated that the presence of MFs (ß:2.752, 95%CI: 0.772-4.733, p = 0.007) and higher knowledge scores (ß:0.418, 95%CI: 0.236-0.600, p < 0.001) were associated with higher perceived risk. Despite increased perceived risk in those with MFs, this translated to only few increased self-reported preventive actions, when compared to those without MFs, namely the reduction in red meat/processed food consumption (p = 0.045) and increase in fruits/vegetables consumption (p = 0.009). Conclusion: This study identified a vulnerable subpopulation living with MFs, with high perceived risks, and discordant levels of knowledge and preventive actions taken. Nationwide efforts should be channeled into addressing the knowledge-to-action gap.

Efficacy and safety of tirzepatide for treatment of overweight or obesity. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that tirzepatide, a dual glucose-dependent insulinotropic-peptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA), has significant weight loss effects. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to assess the efficacy and safety of tirzepatide for weight loss in patients with overweight or obesity. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on tirzepatide's weight loss efficacy for these patients. A single arm meta-analysis of proportions estimated primary outcomes, ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss, and adverse events (AEs); while meta-analysis of means estimated secondary outcomes. Comparative meta-analysis was conducted between tirzepatide and control arms where mean differences and odds ratios were estimated for continuous and dichotomous outcomes respectively. RESULTS: RCTs included in this study revealed that among 5800 patients, 78.22% (95% CI: 72.15% to 83.73%), 55.60% (95% CI: 46.54% to 64.47%), 32.28% (95% CI: 23.17% to 42.12%) achieved ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss, respectively. Tirzepatide 5 mg demonstrated weight loss superiority relative to placebo (MD: -12.47 kg, 95% CI: -13.94 kg to -11.00 kg) and semaglutide (n = 1409, MD: -1.90 kg, 95% CI: -2.97 kg to -0.83 kg) with dose-dependent increase for 10 mg and 15 mg doses. The comparison between tirzepatide and semaglutide was examined in the SURPASS-2 trial that was included in this systematic review. For AEs, there was increase odds of experiencing gastrointestinal AEs with tirzepatide compared to placebo, but no significant difference with semaglutide. CONCLUSION: Tirzepatide has significant potential as a weight loss drug in patients with overweight and obesity, with little increase in AEs compared to other weight loss drugs. With its ability to concurrently target multiple aspects of metabolic syndrome, it should be considered as the next helm of weight loss therapies.

Socioeconomic deprivation and prognostic outcomes in acute coronary syndrome: A meta-analysis using multidimensional socioeconomic status indices.

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is an important prognosticator amongst patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). This paper analysed the effects of SES on ACS outcomes. METHODS: Medline and Embase were searched for articles reporting outcomes of ACS patients stratified by SES using a multidimensional index, comprising at least 2 of the following components: Income, Education and Employment. A comparative meta-analysis was conducted using random-effects models to estimate the risk ratio of all-cause mortality in low SES vs high SES populations, stratified according to geographical region, study year, follow-up duration and SES index. RESULTS: A total of 29 studies comprising of 301,340 individuals were included, of whom 43.7% were classified as low SES. While patients of both SES groups had similar cardiovascular risk profiles, ACS patients of low SES had significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR:1.19, 95%CI: 1.10-1.1.29, p < 0.001) compared to patients of high SES, with higher 1-year mortality (RR:1.08, 95%CI:1.03-1.13, p = 0.0057) but not 30-day mortality (RR:1.07, 95%CI:0.98-1.16, p = 0.1003). Despite having similar rates of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST-elevation ACS, individuals with low SES had lower rates of coronary revascularisation (RR:0.95, 95%CI:0.91-0.99, p = 0.0115) and had higher cerebrovascular accident risk (RR:1.25, 95%CI:1.01-1.55, p = 0.0469). Excess mortality risk was independent of region (p = 0.2636), study year (p = 0.7271) and duration of follow-up (p = 0.0604) but was dependent on the SES index used (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Low SES is associated with increased mortality post-ACS, with suboptimal coronary revascularisation rates compared to those of high SES. Concerted efforts are needed to address the global ACS-related socioeconomic inequity. REGISTRATION AND PROTOCOL: The current study was registered with PROSPERO, ID: CRD42022347987.

Trends and predictions of malnutrition and obesity in 204 countries and territories: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Malnutrition and obesity are interdependent pathologies along the same spectrum. We examined global trends and projections of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from malnutrition and obesity until 2030. Methods: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study involving 204 countries and territories, trends in DALYs and deaths were described for obesity and malnutrition from 2000 to 2019, stratified by geographical regions (as defined by WHO) and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Malnutrition was defined according to the 10th revision of International Classification of Diseases codes for nutritional deficiencies, stratified by malnutrition type. Obesity was measured via body mass index (BMI) using metrics related to national and subnational estimates, defined as BMI ≥25 kg/m2. Countries were stratified into low, low-middle, middle, high-middle, and high SDI bands. Regression models were constructed to predict DALYs and mortality up to 2030. Association between age-standardised prevalence of the diseases and mortality was also assessed. Findings: In 2019, age-standardised malnutrition-related DALYs was 680 (95% UI: 507-895) per 100,000 population. DALY rates decreased from 2000 to 2019 (-2.86% annually), projected to fall 8.4% from 2020 to 2030. Africa and low SDI countries observed highest malnutrition-related DALYs. Age-standardised obesity-related DALY estimates were 1933 (95% UI: 1277-2640). Obesity-related DALYs rose 0.48% annually from 2000 to 2019, predicted to increase by 39.8% from 2020 to 2030. Highest obesity-related DALYs were in Eastern Mediterranean and middle SDI countries. Interpretation: The ever-increasing obesity burden, on the backdrop of curbing the malnutrition burden, is predicted to rise further. Funding: None.

Barriers and Facilitators to Engagement With a Weight Management Intervention in Asian Patients With Overweight or Obesity: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic is a global health concern with Asian countries facing one of the most rapid rises in obesity rates. However, given the underwhelming long-term efficacy of weight loss strategies, especially in Asia, this review aimed to explore barriers and facilitators to weight management of patients with overweight and obesity in Asia. METHODS: Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science were searched for articles discussing barriers and facilitators of treatment to obesity from the perspectives of both health care professionals (HCPs) and patients. Qualitative and mixed method studies from Asia were included. Key quotes were extracted, coded, and thematically analyzed according to the methodology of Thomas and Harden. RESULTS: A total of 26 articles were included in this review. From patient perspectives, 3 main themes were identified: factors influencing poor eating behavior, inhibiting lifestyle modifications, and facilitating lifestyle modifications. Patients highlighted several barriers including the lack of social support, physiologic limitations to exercise, and low health literacy. Rigid sociocultural norms and lack of accessible health care services, exercise facilities, and healthy food exacerbated the barriers. Facilitators to lifestyle modifications consisted of strong support systems and high health literacy. HCPs agreed that low health literacy, lack of social support, and patient motivation impeded patients' weight loss attempts but were unaware of the other barriers they faced. CONCLUSION: There are discrepancies between ideas of barriers and facilitators of HCPs and patients. A mixture of population level, primary care, and personal interventions are required to address this disparity, and enhanced health literacy can improve weight loss outcomes.