Meteorological, chemical and biological evaluation of the coupled chemistry-climate WRF-Chem model from regional to urban scale. An impact-oriented application for human health.

Extreme climatic conditions, like heat waves or cold spells, associated to high concentrations of air pollutants are responsible for a broad range of effects on human health. Consequently, in the recent years, the question on how urban and peri-urban forests may improve both air quality and surface climate conditions at city-scale is receiving growing attention by scientists and policymakers, with previous studies demonstrating how nature-based solutions (NBS) may contribute to reduce the risk of population to be exposed to high pollutant levels and heat stress, preventing, thus, premature mortality. In this study we present a new modeling framework designed to simulate air quality and meteorological conditions from regional to urban scale, allowing thus to assess the impacts of both air pollution and heat stress on human health at urban level. To assess the model reliability, we evaluated the model's performances in reproducing several relevant meteorological, chemical, and biological variables. Results show how our modeling system can reliably reproduce the main meteorological, chemical, and biological variables over our study areas, thus this tool can be used to estimate the impact of air pollution and heat stress on human health. As an example of application, we show how common heat stress and air pollutant indices used for human health protection change when computed from regional to urban scale for the cities of Florence (Italy) and Aix en Provence (France).

Stomatal responses of terrestrial plants to global change.

Quantifying the stomatal responses of plants to global change factors is crucial for modeling terrestrial carbon and water cycles. Here we synthesize worldwide experimental data to show that stomatal conductance (gs) decreases with elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), warming, decreased precipitation, and tropospheric ozone pollution, but increases with increased precipitation and nitrogen (N) deposition. These responses vary with treatment magnitude, plant attributes (ambient gs, vegetation biomes, and plant functional types), and climate. All two-factor combinations (except warming + N deposition) significantly reduce gs, and their individual effects are commonly additive but tend to be antagonistic as the effect sizes increased. We further show that rising CO2 and warming would dominate the future change of plant gs across biomes. The results of our meta-analysis provide a foundation for understanding and predicting plant gs across biomes and guiding manipulative experiment designs in a real world where global change factors do not occur in isolation.

Ozone modelling and mapping for risk assessment: An overview of different approaches for human and ecosystems health.

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is one of the most concernedair pollutants dueto its widespread impacts on land vegetated ecosystems and human health. Ozone is also the third greenhouse gas for radiative forcing. Consequently, it should be carefully and continuously monitored to estimate its potential adverse impacts especially inthose regions where concentrations are high. Continuous large-scale O3 concentrations measurement is crucial but may be unfeasible because of economic and practical limitations; therefore, quantifying the real impact of O3over large areas is currently an open challenge. Thus, one of the final objectives of O3 modelling is to reproduce maps of continuous concentrations (both spatially and temporally) and risk assessment for human and ecosystem health. We here reviewedthe most relevant approaches used for O3 modelling and mapping starting from the simplest geo-statistical approaches andincreasing in complexity up to simulations embedded into the global/regional circulation models and pro and cons of each mode are highlighted. The analysis showed that a simpler approach (mostly statistical models) is suitable for mappingO3concentrationsat the local scale, where enough O3concentration data are available. The associated error in mapping can be reduced by using more complex methodologies, based on co-variables. The models available at the regional or global level are used depending on the needed resolution and the domain where they are applied to. Increasing the resolution corresponds to an increase in the prediction but only up to a certain limit. However, with any approach, the ensemble models should be preferred.

Legislative and functional aspects of different metrics used for ozone risk assessment to forests.

Surface ozone (O3) is a threat to forests by decreasing photosynthesis and, consequently, influencing the strength of land carbon sink. However, due to the lack of continuous surface O3 measurements, observational-based assessments of O3 impacts on forests are largely missing at hemispheric to global scales. Currently, some metrics are used for regulatory purposes by governments or national agencies to protect forests against the negative impacts of ozone: in particular, both Europe and United States (US) makes use of two different exposure-based metrics, i.e. AOT40 and W126, respectively. However, because of some limitations in these metrics, a new standard is under consideration by the European Union (EU) to replace the current exposure metric. We analyse here the different air quality standards set or proposed for use in Europe and in the US to protect forests from O3 and to evaluate their spatial and temporal consistency while assessing their effectiveness in protecting northern-hemisphere forests. Then, we compare their results with the information obtained from a complex land surface model (ORCHIDEE). We find that present O3 uptake decreases gross primary production (GPP) in 37.7% of the NH forested area of northern hemisphere with a mean loss of 2.4% year-1. We show how the proposed US (W126) and the currently used European (AOT40) air quality standards substantially overestimate the extension of potential vulnerable regions, predicting that 46% and 61% of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forested area are at risk of O3 pollution. Conversely, the new proposed European standard (POD1) identifies lower extension of vulnerability regions (39.6%).

Impact of ground-level ozone on Mediterranean forest ecosystems health.

Given the high ozone concentrations observed in the Mediterranean region during summer, it is crucial to extend our knowledge on the potential ozone impacts on forest health with in situ studies, especially to protect typical endemic forests of the Mediterranean basin. This study is focused on ozone measurements and exposures over the Eastern Adriatic coast and on the calculation of different O3 metrics, i.e., accumulated exposure AOT40 (AOT40dir, AOT40ICP, AOT40pheno) and stomatal O3 fluxes with an hourly threshold of uptake (Y) to represent the detoxification capacity of trees (PODY, with Y = 0, 1, 2 nmol O3 m-2 s-1) used for forest protection. Finally, we provide an assessment of the relationships between the forest response indicators and environmental variables. Passive ozone measurements and monitoring of forest health indicators, namely growth and crown defoliation, were performed for Quercus ilex, Quercus pubescens, Pinus halepensis, and Pinus nigra forests. Results showed that, for all the analysed species, ozone levels were close to reached the upper plausibility limits for passive monitoring of air quality at forest sites (100 ppb), with the highest values found on P. halepensis in the summer period. O3 metrics based on exposure were found to be higher in pine plots than in oak plots, while the highest values of uptake-based metrics were found on P. nigra. Regarding relationships between environmental variables and forest-health response indicators, the crown defoliation was significantly correlated with the soil water content at various depth while the tree growth was correlated with the different O3 metrics. The most important predictors affecting tree growth of Q. pubescens and Q. ilex were AOT40pheno and AOT40dir and POD0 for P. nigra.

Economic impacts of ambient ozone pollution on wood production in Italy.

Worldwide, tropospheric ozone (O3) is a potential threat to wood production, but our understanding of O3 economic impacts on forests is still limited. To overcome this issue, we developed an approach for integrating O3 risk modelling and economic estimates, by using the Italian forests as a case study. Results suggested a significant impact of O3 expressed in terms of stomatal flux with an hourly threshold of uptake (Y = 1 nmol O3 m-2 leaf area s-1 to represent the detoxification capacity of trees), i.e. POD1. In 2005, the annual POD1 averaged over Italy was 20.4 mmol m-2 and the consequent potential damage ranged from 790.90 M€ to 2.85 B€ of capital value (i.e. 255-869 € ha-1, on average) depending on the interest rate. The annual damage ranged from 31.6 to 57.1 M€ (i.e. 10-17 € ha-1 per year, on average). There was also a 1.1% reduction in the profitable forest areas, i.e. with a positive Forest Expectation Value (FEV), with significant declines of the annual national wood production of firewood (- 7.5%), timber pole (- 7.4%), roundwood (- 5.0%) and paper mill (- 4.8%). Results were significantly different in the different Italian regions. We recommend our combined approach for further studies under different economic and phytoclimatic conditions.

Short-term and long-term health impacts of air pollution reductions from COVID-19 lockdowns in China and Europe: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to poor air quality leads to increased premature mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Among the far-reaching implications of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial improvement in air quality was observed worldwide after the lockdowns imposed by many countries. We aimed to assess the implications of different lockdown measures on air pollution levels in Europe and China, as well as the short-term and long-term health impact. METHODS: For this modelling study, observations of fine particulate matter (PM2·5) concentrations from more than 2500 stations in Europe and China during 2016-20 were integrated with chemical transport model simulations to reconstruct PM2·5 fields at high spatiotemporal resolution. The health benefits, expressed as short-term and long-term avoided mortality from PM2·5 exposure associated with the interventions imposed to control the COVID-19 pandemic, were quantified on the basis of the latest epidemiological studies. To explore the long-term variability in air quality and associated premature mortality, we built different scenarios of economic recovery (immediate or gradual resumption of activities, a second outbreak in autumn, and permanent lockdown for the whole of 2020). FINDINGS: The lockdown interventions led to a reduction in population-weighted PM2·5 of 14·5 µg m-3 across China (-29·7%) and 2·2 µg m-3 across Europe (-17·1%), with unprecedented reductions of 40 µg m-3 in bimonthly mean PM2·5 in the areas most affected by COVID-19 in China. In the short term, an estimated 24 200 (95% CI 22 380-26 010) premature deaths were averted throughout China between Feb 1 and March 31, and an estimated 2190 (1960-2420) deaths were averted in Europe between Feb 21 and May 17. We also estimated a positive number of long-term avoided premature fatalities due to reduced PM2·5 concentrations, ranging from 76 400 (95% CI 62 600-86 900) to 287 000 (233 700-328 300) for China, and from 13 600 (11 900-15 300) to 29 500 (25 800-33 300) for Europe, depending on the future scenarios of economic recovery adopted. INTERPRETATION: These results indicate that lockdown interventions led to substantial reductions in PM2·5 concentrations in China and Europe. We estimated that tens of thousands of premature deaths from air pollution were avoided, although with significant differences observed in Europe and China. Our findings suggest that considerable improvements in air quality are achievable in both China and Europe when stringent emission control policies are adopted. FUNDING: None.

Economic losses due to ozone impacts on human health, forest productivity and crop yield across China.

China's economic growth has significantly increased emissions of tropospheric ozone (O3) precursors, resulting in increased regional O3 pollution. We analyzed data from >1400 monitoring stations and estimated the exposure of population and vegetation (crops and forests) to O3 pollution across China in 2015. Based on WHO metrics for human health protection, the current O3 level leads to +0.9% premature mortality (59,844 additional cases a year) with 96% of populated areas showing O3-induced premature death. For vegetation, O3 reduces annual forest tree biomass growth by 11-13% and yield of rice and wheat by 8% and 6%, respectively, relative to conditions below the respective AOT40 critical levels (CL). These CLs are exceeded over 98%, 75% and 83% of the areas of forests, rice and wheat, respectively. Using O3 exposure-response functions, we evaluated the costs of O3-induced losses in rice (7.5 billion US$), wheat (11.1 billion US$) and forest production (52.2 billion US$) and SOMO35-based morbidity for respiratory diseases (690.9 billion US$) and non-accidental mortality (7.5 billion US$), i.e. a total O3-related cost representing 7% of the China Gross Domestic Product in 2015.

Growing season extension affects ozone uptake by European forests.

Climate change significantly modifies terrestrial ecosystems and vegetation activity, yet little is known about how climate change and ozone pollution interact to affect forest health. Here we compared the trends of two metrics widely used to protect forests against negative impacts of ozone pollution, the AOT40 (Accumulated Ozone over Threshold of 40 ppb) which only depends on surface air ozone concentrations, and the POD (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose) which relies on the amount of ozone uptaken by plants through stomata. Using a chemistry transport model, driven by anthropogenic emission inventories, we found that European-averaged ground-level ozone concentrations significantly declined (-1.6%) over the time period 2000-2014, following successful control strategies to reduce the ozone precursors emission; as a consequence, the AOT40 metric declined (-22%). In contrast, climate change increased both growing season length (~7 days/decade) and stomatal conductance and thus enhanced the stomatal ozone uptake by forests (5.9%), leading to an overall increase of potential ozone damage on plants, despite the reduction in ozone concentrations. Our results suggest that stomatal-flux based strategies of forest protection against ozone in a changing climate require a proper consideration of the duration of the growing season with a better estimation of start and end of the growing season.

Impacts of air pollution on human and ecosystem health, and implications for the National Emission Ceilings Directive: Insights from Italy.

Across the 28 EU member states there were nearly half a million premature deaths in 2015 as a result of exposure to PM2.5, O3 and NO2. To set the target for air quality levels and avoid negative impacts for human and ecosystems health, the National Emission Ceilings Directive (NECD, 2016/2284/EU) sets objectives for emission reduction for SO2, NOx, NMVOCs, NH3 and PM2.5 for each Member State as percentages of reduction to be reached in 2020 and 2030 compared to the emission levels into 2005. One of the innovations of NECD is Article 9, that mentions the issue of "monitoring air pollution impacts" on ecosystems. We provide a clear picture of what is available in term of monitoring network for air pollution impacts on Italian ecosystems, summarizing what has been done to control air pollution and its effects on different ecosystems in Italy. We provide an overview of the impacts of air pollution on health of the Italian population and evaluate opportunities and implementation of Article 9 in the Italian context, as a case study beneficial for all Member States. The results showed that SO42- deposition strongly decreased in all monitoring sites in Italy over the period 1999-2017, while NO3- and NH4+ decreased more slightly. As a consequence, most of the acid-sensitive sites which underwent acidification in the 1980s partially recovered. The O3 concentration at forest sites showed a decreasing trend. Consequently, AOT40 (the metric identified to protect vegetation from ozone pollution) showed a decrease, even if values were still above the limit for forest protection (5000 ppb h-1), while PODy (flux-based metric under discussion as new European legislative standard for forest protection) showed an increase. National scale studies pointed out that PM10 and NO2 induced about 58,000 premature deaths (year 2005), due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. The network identified for Italy contains a good number of monitoring sites (6 for terrestrial ecosystem monitoring, 4 for water bodies monitoring and 11 for ozone impact monitoring) distributed over the territory and will produce a high number of monitored parameters for the implementation of the NECD.

Trends and inter-relationships of ground-level ozone metrics and forest health in Lithuania.

Lithuania is representative of maritime to continental climate, no water limitation, and moderate ground-level ozone (O3) pollution. We investigated the trends of meteorological variables and O3 and how these environmental conditions associate with tree health from 2001 onward. Ozone metrics for forest protection, based on Accumulated O3 exposure Over a Threshold of X ppb (AOTX) or on Phytotoxic O3 Dose over a Y threshold (PODY), were modeled at nine ICP-Forests plots over the time period 2001-2014. Tree-response indicators, i.e. crown defoliation and visible foliar O3 injury, were assessed during annual field surveys carried out at each ICP-Forests plot over the time period 2007-2017. Mann-Kendall and Sen statistical tests were applied to estimate changes over time of meteorological variables, response indicators and O3 metrics. Finally, the O3 metrics were correlated (Spearman test) to the response indicators over the common period 2007-2014. Over this time period, trend analyses revealed an increasingly hotter (+0.27 °C decade-1, on average) and drier climate (rainfall, -48 mm decade-1). A reduction was found for O3 annual mean (-0.28 ppb decade-1, on average) and AOT40 (-2540 ppb·h decade-1, on average) whereas an increase was found for POD0 (+0.40 mmol m-2 decade-1, on average). Visible foliar O3 injury increased (+0.17% decade-1), while an improvement of the crown conditions (-5.0% decade-1) was observed. AOT40 was significantly associated with crown defoliation while PODY and soil water content were correlated with visible foliar O3 injury. As visible foliar O3 injury was negligible in all the studied species, the results suggest that moderate O3 pollution (approximately 30 ppb as annual average) does not induce biologically significant effects on this forest vegetation under the current conditions, however the overall O3 risk (POD0) is expected to increase in the future under a hotter and drier climate.

Commentary: EPA's proposed expansion of dose-response analysis is a positive step towards improving its ecological risk assessment.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has recently proposed changes to strengthen the transparency of its pivotal regulatory science policy and procedures. In this context, the US EPA aims to enhance the transparency of dose-response data and models, proposing to consider for the first time non-linear biphasic dose-response models. While the proposed changes have the potential to lead to markedly improved ecological risk assessment compared to past and current approaches, we believe there remain open issues for improving the quality of ecological risk assessment, such as the consideration of adaptive, dynamic and interactive effects. Improved risk assessment including adaptive and dynamic non-linear models (beyond classic threshold models) can enhance the quality of regulatory decisions and the protection of ecological health. We suggest that other countries consider adopting a similar scientific-regulatory posture with respect to dose-response modeling via the inclusion of non-linear biphasic models, that incorporate the dynamic potential of biological systems to adapt (i.e., enhancing positive biological endpoints) or maladapt to low levels of stressor agents.

Nationwide ground-level ozone measurements in China suggest serious risks to forests.

We processed hourly ozone (O3) concentrations collected in 2015 and in 2016 by a network of 1497 stations across China, with the main aim of assessing the risk that present ambient O3 exposure is posing to Chinese forests. Our results indicate that the values of the metrics AOT40 (the accumulated hourly O3 concentrations above 40 ppb during daylight hours) recommended as European Union standard, and W126 (the sum of weighted hourly concentrations from 8:00 to 20:00) recommended as USA standard for forest protection, exceeded the critical levels (5 ppm h across 6 months for AOT40 and 7-21 ppm h over 3 months for W126) on average by 5.1 and 1.2 times, respectively. N100 showed on average 65 annual exceedances of 100 ppb as hourly value. The 12-h and 24-h averages showed a small difference, suggesting high concentrations also at night. Risk was higher for the northern temperate climate than for the southern tropical and sub-tropical climates, and overall for the northern regions than for the southern regions. Higher risk occurred in the non-urban areas than in the urban areas in northern, south-west and north-west China, whereas risk was higher at urban areas in eastern and southern China. The overall results of this first nationwide assessment suggest a significant risk for forests over the entire China and warrant for urgent measures for controlling O3 precursor emissions and establishing standards of protection.

The role of plant phenology in stomatal ozone flux modeling.

Plant phenology plays a pivotal role in the climate system as it regulates the gas exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere. The uptake of ozone by forest is estimated through several meteorological variables and a specific function describing the beginning and the termination of plant growing season; actually, in many risk assessment studies, this function is based on a simple latitude and topography model. In this study, using two satellite datasets, we apply and compare six methods to estimate the start and the end dates of the growing season across a large region covering all Europe for the year 2011. Results show a large variability between the green-up and dormancy dates estimated using the six different methods, with differences greater than one month. However, interestingly, all the methods display a common spatial pattern in the uptake of ozone by forests with a marked change in the magnitude, up to 1.9 TgO3 /year, and corresponding to a difference of 25% in the amount of ozone that enters the leaves. Our results indicate that improved estimates of ozone fluxes require a better representation of plant phenology in the models used for O3 risk assessment.

Five-year volume growth of European beech does not respond to ozone pollution in Italy.

A unique database of stand volume growth, estimated as periodic annual volume increment (in m3 ha-1 per year over the period 2001-2005) from 728 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) sites distributed across Italy, was used to assess the effects of ambient ozone (O3), expressed as annual average (M24), accumulated exposure above a 40 ppb hourly threshold (AOT40), and total stomatal ozone flux (POD0). Growth data were from the National forest inventory of Italy, while climate data and ozone concentrations were computed by the WRF and CHIMERE models, respectively. Results show that the growth increased with increasing solar radiation and air temperature and decreased with increasing number of cold days, while effects of soil water content and O3 were not significant. In contrast, the literature results suggest that European beech is sensitive to both drought and O3. Ozone levels resulted to be very high (48 ppb M24, 51,200 ppb h AOT40, 21.08 mmol m-2 POD0, on average) and thus able to potentially affect European beech growth. We hypothesize that the high-frequency signals of soil water and O3 got lost when averaged over 5 years and recommended finer time-resolution investigations and inclusion of other factors of variability, e.g., thinning, tree age, and size.

Thinning Can Reduce Losses in Carbon Use Efficiency and Carbon Stocks in Managed Forests Under Warmer Climate.

Forest carbon use efficiency (CUE, the ratio of net to gross primary productivity) represents the fraction of photosynthesis that is not used for plant respiration. Although important, it is often neglected in climate change impact analyses. Here we assess the potential impact of thinning on projected carbon cycle dynamics and implications for forest CUE and its components (i.e., gross and net primary productivity and plant respiration), as well as on forest biomass production. Using a detailed process-based forest ecosystem model forced by climate outputs of five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected future changes in the autotrophic carbon budget of three representative European forests. We focus on changes in CUE and carbon stocks as a result of warming, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, and forest thinning. Results show that autotrophic carbon sequestration decreases with forest development, and the decrease is faster with warming and in unthinned forests. This suggests that the combined impacts of climate change and changing CO2 concentrations lead the forests to grow faster, mature earlier, and also die younger. In addition, we show that under future climate conditions, forest thinning could mitigate the decrease in CUE, increase carbon allocation into more recalcitrant woody pools, and reduce physiological-climate-induced mortality risks. Altogether, our results show that thinning can improve the efficacy of forest-based mitigation strategies and should be carefully considered within a portfolio of mitigation options.

Ozone exposure affects tree defoliation in a continental climate.

Ground-level ozone (O3) affects trees through visible leaf injury, accelerating leaf senescence, declining foliar chlorophyll content, photosynthetic activity, growth, carbon sequestration, predisposing to pests attack and a variety of other physiological effects. Tree crown defoliation is one of the most important parameters that is representative of forest health and vitality. Effects of air pollution on forests have been investigated through manipulative experiments that are not representative of the real environmental conditions observed in the field. In this work we investigated the role of O3 concentration and other metrics (AOT40 and POD0) in affecting crown defoliation in temperate Romanian forests. The impacts of O3 were estimated in combination with nitrogen pollutants, climatic factors and orographic conditions, by applying a non-linear modelling approach (Random Forest and Generalised Regression Models). Ozone concentration and AOT40 under Romanian conditions were more important than meteorological parameters in affecting crown defoliation. In these particular conditions, POD0 never exceeded the critical level suggested by previous literature for forest protection, and thus was not important in affecting crown defoliation.

Comparing concentration-based (AOT40) and stomatal uptake (PODY) metrics for ozone risk assessment to European forests.

Tropospheric ozone (O3) produces harmful effects to forests and crops, leading to a reduction of land carbon assimilation that, consequently, influences the land sink and the crop yield production. To assess the potential negative O3 impacts to vegetation, the European Union uses the Accumulated Ozone over Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40). This index has been chosen for its simplicity and flexibility in handling different ecosystems as well as for its linear relationships with yield or biomass loss. However, AOT40 does not give any information on the physiological O3 uptake into the leaves since it does not include any environmental constraints to O3 uptake through stomata. Therefore, an index based on stomatal O3 uptake (i.e. PODY), which describes the amount of O3 entering into the leaves, would be more appropriate. Specifically, the PODY metric considers the effects of multiple climatic factors, vegetation characteristics and local and phenological inputs rather than the only atmospheric O3 concentration. For this reason, the use of PODY in the O3 risk assessment for vegetation is becoming recommended. We compare different potential O3 risk assessments based on two methodologies (i.e. AOT40 and stomatal O3 uptake) using a framework of mesoscale models that produces hourly meteorological and O3 data at high spatial resolution (12 km) over Europe for the time period 2000-2005. Results indicate a remarkable spatial and temporal inconsistency between the two indices, suggesting that a new definition of European legislative standard is needed in the near future. Besides, our risk assessment based on AOT40 shows a good consistency compared to both in-situ data and other model-based datasets. Conversely, risk assessment based on stomatal O3 uptake shows different spatial patterns compared to other model-based datasets. This strong inconsistency can be likely related to a different vegetation cover and its associated parameterizations.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr(-1) ) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr(-1) ). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5-20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO2 than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr(-1) is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr(-1) ). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980-2009. Both model-to-model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is -3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) , within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (-3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) ). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO2 and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation-based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon-nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.