Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil.

Background: Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. Methods: We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species. Results: We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.

The importance of common and the irrelevance of rare species for partition the variation of community matrix: implications for sampling and conservation.

In community ecology, it is important to understand the distribution of communities along environmental and spatial gradients. However, it is common for the residuals of models investigating those relationships to be very high (> 50%). It is believed that species' intrinsic characteristics such as rarity can contribute to large residuals. The objective of this study is to test the relationship among communities and environmental and spatial predictors by evaluating the relative contribution of common and rare species to the explanatory power of models. Our hypothesis is that the residual of partition the variation of community matrix (varpart) models will decrease as rare species get removed. We used several environmental variables and spatial filters as varpart model predictors of fish and Zygoptera (Insecta: Odonata) communities in 109 and 141 Amazonian streams, respectively. We built a repetition structure, in which we gradually removed common and rare species independently. After the repetitions and removal of species, our hypothesis was not corroborated. In all scenarios, removing up to 50% of rare species did not reduce model residuals. Common species are important and rare species are irrelevant for understanding the relationships among communities and environmental and spatial gradients using varpart. Therefore, our findings suggest that studies using varpart with single sampling events that do not detect rare species can efficiently assess general distributional patterns of communities along environmental and spatial gradients. However, when the objectives concern conservation of biodiversity and functional diversity, rare species must be carefully assessed by other complementary methods, since they are not well represented in varpart models.

The role of ecological niche evolution on diversification patterns of birds distinctly distributed between the Amazonia and Atlantic rainforests.

The Amazonian and Atlantic Forest share several organisms that are currently isolated but were continuously distributed during the Quaternary period. As both biomes are under different climatic regimes, paleoclimatic events may have modulated species' niches due to a lack of gene flow and imposing divergent selection pressure. Here, we assessed patterns of ecological niche overlap in 37 species of birds with disjunct ranges between the Amazonian and Brazilian Atlantic Forests. We performed niche overlap analysis and ecological niche modeling using four machine-learning algorithms to evaluate whether species' ecological niches evolved or remained conserved after the past South American biogeographic events. We found a low niche overlap among the same species populations in the two biomes. However, niche similarity tests showed that, for half of the species, the overlap was higher than the ones generated by our null models. These results lead us to conclude that niche conservatism was not enough to avoid ecological differentiation among species even though detected in many species. In sum, our results support the role of climatic changes in late-Pleistocene-that isolated Amazon and the Atlantic Forest-as a driving force of ecological differences among the same species populations and potential mechanism of current diversification in both regions.

Back home? Uncertainties for returning seized animals to the source-areas under climate change.

Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source-areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source-municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source-areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source-areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two different time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source-areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source-municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long term.