Disaster Plant Pathology: Smart Solutions for Threats to Global Plant Health from Natural and Human-Driven Disasters.

Disaster plant pathology addresses how natural and human-driven disasters impact plant diseases and the requirements for smart management solutions. Local to global drivers of plant disease change in response to disasters, often creating environments more conducive to plant disease. Most disasters have indirect effects on plant health through factors such as disrupted supply chains and damaged infrastructure. There is also the potential for direct effects from disasters, such as pathogen or vector dispersal due to floods, hurricanes, and human migration driven by war. Pulse stressors such as hurricanes and war require rapid responses, whereas press stressors such as climate change leave more time for management adaptation but may ultimately cause broader challenges. Smart solutions for the effects of disasters can be deployed through digital agriculture and decision support systems supporting disaster preparedness and optimized humanitarian aid across scales. Here, we use the disaster plant pathology framework to synthesize the effects of disasters in plant pathology and outline solutions to maintain food security and plant health in catastrophic scenarios. We recommend actions for improving food security before and following disasters, including (i) strengthening regional and global cooperation, (ii) capacity building for rapid implementation of new technologies, (iii) effective clean seed systems that can act quickly to replace seed lost in disasters, (iv) resilient biosecurity infrastructure and risk assessment ready for rapid implementation, and (v) decision support systems that can adapt rapidly to unexpected scenarios. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.

Farmers Experiencing Potato Seed Degeneration Respond but Do Not Adjust Their Seed Replacement Strategies in Ecuador.

In Ecuador, farmers poorly adopt practices to manage potato seed degeneration. This could be related to the deficient understanding of the farmers' capacity to experience seed degeneration and respond to it. We contribute to this understanding by answering: How do farmers experience seed degeneration?; What practices do farmers implement when their seed is degenerated?; and Is experiencing degeneration the pivotal factor determining how farmers replace their seed regardless their income? We analysed data collected in Ecuador through farmers' focus group discussions, farmers' surveys and interviews, and the Ecuadorian employment status survey. We found that approximately half of the farmers experienced degeneration. Farmers experienced it through low yields, change in seed appearance, crop weakening, and seed physiological problems. When farmers experienced degeneration, they replaced their seed, sought for technical advice, applied more agricultural inputs, or grew other crops. Income was an important trigger for farmers to change their seed replacement practices.

Screening South American Potato Landraces and Potato Wild Relatives for Novel Sources of Late Blight Resistance.

Late blight (LB) caused by the oomycete Phytophthora infestans is one of the most important biotic constraints for potato production worldwide. This study assessed 508 accessions (79 wild potato species and 429 landraces from a cultivated core collection) held at the International Potato Center genebank for resistance to LB. One P. infestans isolate belonging to the EC-1 lineage, which is currently the predominant type of P. infestans in Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia, was used in whole plant assays under greenhouse conditions. Novel sources of resistance to LB were found in accessions of Solanum albornozii, S. andreanum, S. lesteri, S. longiconicum, S. morelliforme, S. stenophyllidium, S. mochiquense, S. cajamarquense, and S. huancabambense. All of these species are endemic to South America and thus could provide novel sources of resistance for potato breeding programs. We found that the level of resistance to LB in wild species and potato landraces cannot be predicted from altitude and bioclimatic variables of the locations where the accessions were collected. The high percentage (73%) of potato landraces susceptible to LB in our study suggests the importance of implementing disease control measures, including planting susceptible genotypes in less humid areas and seasons or switching to genotypes identified as resistant. In addition, this study points out a high risk of genetic erosion in potato biodiversity at high altitudes of the Andes due to susceptibility to LB in the native landraces, which has been exacerbated by climatic change that favors the development of LB in those regions.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Global Cropland Connectivity: A Risk Factor for Invasion and Saturation by Emerging Pathogens and Pests.

The geographic pattern of cropland is an important risk factor for invasion and saturation by crop-specific pathogens and arthropods. Understanding cropland networks supports smart pest sampling and mitigation strategies. We evaluate global networks of cropland connectivity for key vegetatively propagated crops (banana and plantain, cassava, potato, sweet potato, and yam) important for food security in the tropics. For each crop, potential movement between geographic location pairs was evaluated using a gravity model, with associated uncertainty quantification. The highly linked hub and bridge locations in cropland connectivity risk maps are likely priorities for surveillance and management, and for tracing intraregion movement of pathogens and pests. Important locations are identified beyond those locations that simply have high crop density. Cropland connectivity risk maps provide a new risk component for integration with other factors-such as climatic suitability, genetic resistance, and global trade routes-to inform pest risk assessment and mitigation.

BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of Phytophthora infestans to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change.

Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the Phytophthora infestans infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly temperature and relative humidity as driving variables. The model was calibrated with growth chamber data covering one infection cycle and validated with field data from Ecuador. The model provided a good fit to all data sets evaluated. There was a significant interaction between average temperature and amplitude in their effects on the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) as predicted from growth chamber data on a single infection cycle. BLIGHTSIM can be incorporated in a potato growth model to study effects of diurnal temperature range on late blight impact under climate change scenarios.

Use of Phosphonate to Manage Foliar Potato Late Blight in Developing Countries.

Twenty phosphonate products found in the agrochemical market in Ecuador and Peru were evaluated in bioassays for the control of foliar potato late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans. Eight phosphonate products were evaluated in 16 field experiments done in Peru, Ecuador, Kenya, and Nepal. A meta-analysis across locations involving 71 combinations of potato genotype by site and year demonstrated a significant relationship between phosphonate application rate and efficacy for controlling late blight on potato foliage. The meta-analysis revealed that phosphonate rates of approximately 2.5 g a.i./liter provided efficacy similar to that of the conventional contact fungicides mancozeb and chlorothalonil used at similar rates. At rates higher than 2.5 g a.i./liter, the efficacy of phosphonate was superior to the contact fungicides. Overall, late blight control by phosphonate appeared relatively stable in field experiments across locations. An analysis of field experiments and 64 combinations of potato genotype by site and year showed no correlation between the susceptibility level of potato genotypes and efficacy of phosphonates. The cost of both phosphonate compounds and contact fungicides varied greatly among the countries of the field study; however, in Kenya, control with phosphonate was clearly less expensive than with mancozeb.

Assessing the Adequacy of the Simulation Model LATEBLIGHT Under Nicaraguan Conditions.

In this study, the adequacy of the late blight simulation model LATEBLIGHT (version LB2004) was evaluated under Nicaraguan conditions. During 2007 to 2008, five field experiments were conducted in three potato-production regions in northern Nicaragua. Two susceptible ('Cal White' and 'Granola') and one resistant ('Jacqueline Lee') potato cultivars were evaluated without use of fungicides and with three application intervals (4, 7, and 14 days) of the fungicide chlorothalonil. The simulation model was considered adequate because it accurately predicted high disease severity in susceptible cultivars without fungicide protection, and demonstrated a decrease in the disease progress curves with additional fungicide applications, similar to that observed in the plots. The model also generally predicted inadequate fungicide control, even with a 4-day spray interval, which also occurred in the field. Lack of adequate fungicide protection would indicate the need for cultivars with higher levels of durable resistance, and that farmers should consider more effective fungicides applications (higher dosages or different chemistries) if susceptible cultivars are used.

Preemergence Infection of Potato Sprouts by Phytophthora infestans in the Highland Tropics of Ecuador.

Experiments were conducted to determine whether preemergence infection of potato sprouts by Phytophthora infestans occurs in the highland tropics of Ecuador. In three separate experiments in the field, P. infestans was identified on the preemerged sprouts of 49, 5, and 43% of tubers, respectively, which had been removed from soil prior to emergence. Tubers had been planted within 10 m of approximately 300-m2 plots with mature potato plants severely infected with late blight. Infection potential of potato sprouts also was evaluated in the greenhouse by applying 10-ml sporangial suspensions (50 and 250 sporangia/ml) daily for 10 days to the soil surface of pots planted with sprouted seed potato tubers. The daily inoculation rate of 50 sporangia/ml (15.9 × 103 sporangia/m2) resulted in sprout infection in 100% of inoculated pots and roughly corresponded to the sporangial deposition accumulated over 24 h in the field. Deposition had been measured at 1 m from a severely infected potato plot. Our study demonstrated the potential for preemergence infection of potato sprouts by P. infestans in the highlands of Ecuador, where year-round aerial inoculum is present. Preemergence infection is consistent with high levels of disease sometimes seen in recently emerged potato fields. These experiments indicate a need to reconsider disease management approaches.

Simulation of Potato Late Blight in the Andes. I: Modification and Parameterization of the LATEBLIGHT Model.

ABSTRACT LATEBLIGHT, a mathematical model that simulates the effects of weather, host growth and resistance, and fungicide use on asexual development and growth of Phytophthora infestans on potato foliage, was modified so that it can be used in the Andes and, eventually, worldwide. The modifications included (i) the incorporation of improved equations for the effect of temperature on lesion growth rate (LGR) and sporulation rate (SR); (ii) the incorporation of temperature-dependent latent period (LP); and (iii) the use of experimentally measured parameters of LGR, SR, and LP for specific potato cultivars and pathogen lineages. The model was parameterized for three Peruvian potato cultivars (Tomasa, Yungay, and Amarilis) infected with isolates of a new clonal lineage of P. infestans that is currently predominant in Ecuador and Peru (EC-1).

Simulation of Potato Late Blight in the Andes. II: Validation of the LATEBLIGHT Model.

ABSTRACT LATEBLIGHT, a mathematical model that simulates the effect of weather, host growth and resistance, and fungicide use on asexual development and growth of Phytophthora infestans on potato foliage, was validated for the Andes of Peru. Validation was needed due to recent modifications made to the model, and because the model had not been formally tested outside of New York State. Prior to validation, procedures to estimate the starting time of the epidemic, the amount of initial inoculum, and leaf wetness duration were developed. Observed data for validation were from field trials with three potato cultivars in the Peruvian locations of Comas and Huancayo in the department of Junín, and Oxapampa in the department of Pasco in 1999 and 2000 for a total of 12 epidemics. These data had not been used previously for estimating model parameters. Observed and simulated epidemics were compared graphically using disease progress curves and numerically using the area under the disease progress curve in a confidence interval test, an equivalence test, and an envelope of acceptance test. The level of agreement between observed and simulated epidemics was high, and the model was found to be valid according to subjective and objective performance criteria. The approach of measuring fitness components of potato cultivars infected with isolates of a certain clonal lineage of P. infestans under controlled conditions and then using the experimental results as parameters of LATEBLIGHT proved to be effective. Fungicide treatments were not considered in this study.

Qualification of a Plant Disease Simulation Model: Performance of the LATEBLIGHT Model Across a Broad Range of Environments.

ABSTRACT The concept of model qualification, i.e., discovering the domain over which a validated model may be properly used, was illustrated with LATEBLIGHT, a mathematical model that simulates the effect of weather, host growth and resistance, and fungicide use on asexual development and growth of Phytophthora infestans on potato foliage. Late blight epidemics from Ecuador, Mexico, Israel, and the United States involving 13 potato cultivars (32 epidemics in total) were compared with model predictions using graphical and statistical tests. Fungicides were not applied in any of the epidemics. For the simulations, a host resistance level was assigned to each cultivar based on general categories reported by local investigators. For eight cultivars, the model predictions fit the observed data. For four cultivars, the model predictions overestimated disease, likely due to inaccurate estimates of host resistance. Model predictions were inconsistent for one cultivar and for one location. It was concluded that the domain of applicability of LATEBLIGHT can be extended from the range of conditions in Peru for which it has been previously validated to those observed in this study. A sensitivity analysis showed that, within the range of values observed empirically, LATEBLIGHT is more sensitive to changes in variables related to initial inoculum and to weather than to changes in variables relating to host resistance.