Evaluation of GPT-4 ability to identify and generate patient instructions for actionable incidental radiology findings.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the proficiency of a HIPAA-compliant version of GPT-4 in identifying actionable, incidental findings from unstructured radiology reports of Emergency Department patients. To assess appropriateness of artificial intelligence (AI)-generated, patient-facing summaries of these findings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Radiology reports extracted from the electronic health record of a large academic medical center were manually reviewed to identify non-emergent, incidental findings with high likelihood of requiring follow-up, further sub-stratified as "definitely actionable" (DA) or "possibly actionable-clinical correlation" (PA-CC). Instruction prompts to GPT-4 were developed and iteratively optimized using a validation set of 50 reports. The optimized prompt was then applied to a test set of 430 unseen reports. GPT-4 performance was primarily graded on accuracy identifying either DA or PA-CC findings, then secondarily for DA findings alone. Outputs were reviewed for hallucinations. AI-generated patient-facing summaries were assessed for appropriateness via Likert scale. RESULTS: For the primary outcome (DA or PA-CC), GPT-4 achieved 99.3% recall, 73.6% precision, and 84.5% F-1. For the secondary outcome (DA only), GPT-4 demonstrated 95.2% recall, 77.3% precision, and 85.3% F-1. No findings were "hallucinated" outright. However, 2.8% of cases included generated text about recommendations that were inferred without specific reference. The majority of True Positive AI-generated summaries required no or minor revision. CONCLUSION: GPT-4 demonstrates proficiency in detecting actionable, incidental findings after refined instruction prompting. AI-generated patient instructions were most often appropriate, but rarely included inferred recommendations. While this technology shows promise to augment diagnostics, active clinician oversight via "human-in-the-loop" workflows remains critical for clinical implementation.

QTNet: Predicting Drug-Induced QT Prolongation With Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Electrocardiograms.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of drug-induced long QT syndrome (diLQTS) is of critical importance given its association with torsades de pointes. There is no reliable method for the outpatient prediction of diLQTS. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) applied to electrocardiograms (ECGs) to predict diLQTS in an outpatient population. METHODS: We identified all adult outpatients newly prescribed a QT-prolonging medication between January 1, 2003, and March 31, 2022, who had a 12-lead sinus ECG in the preceding 6 months. Using risk factor data and the ECG signal as inputs, the CNN QTNet was implemented in TensorFlow to predict diLQTS. RESULTS: Models were evaluated in a held-out test dataset of 44,386 patients (57% female) with a median age of 62 years. Compared with 3 other models relying on risk factors or ECG signal or baseline QTc alone, QTNet achieved the best (P < 0.001) performance with a mean area under the curve of 0.802 (95% CI: 0.786-0.818). In a survival analysis, QTNet also had the highest inverse probability of censorship-weighted area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve at day 2 (0.875; 95% CI: 0.848-0.904) and up to 6 months. In a subgroup analysis, QTNet performed best among males and patients ≤50 years or with baseline QTc <450 ms. In an external validation cohort of solely suburban outpatient practices, QTNet similarly maintained the highest predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: An ECG-based CNN can accurately predict diLQTS in the outpatient setting while maintaining its predictive performance over time. In the outpatient setting, our model could identify higher-risk individuals who would benefit from closer monitoring.

Development and external validation of a dynamic risk score for early prediction of cardiogenic shock in cardiac intensive care units using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial infarction and heart failure are major cardiovascular diseases that affect millions of people in the US with the morbidity and mortality being highest among patients who develop cardiogenic shock. Early recognition of cardiogenic shock allows prompt implementation of treatment measures. Our objective is to develop a new dynamic risk score, called CShock, to improve early detection of cardiogenic shock in cardiac intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: We developed and externally validated a deep learning-based risk stratification tool, called CShock, for patients admitted into the cardiac ICU with acute decompensated heart failure and/or myocardial infarction to predict onset of cardiogenic shock. We prepared a cardiac ICU dataset using MIMIC-III database by annotating with physician adjudicated outcomes. This dataset that consisted of 1500 patients with 204 having cardiogenic/mixed shock was then used to train CShock. The features used to train the model for CShock included patient demographics, cardiac ICU admission diagnoses, routinely measured laboratory values and vital signs, and relevant features manually extracted from echocardiogram and left heart catheterization reports. We externally validated the risk model on the New York University (NYU) Langone Health cardiac ICU database that was also annotated with physician adjudicated outcomes. The external validation cohort consisted of 131 patients with 25 patients experiencing cardiogenic/mixed shock. RESULTS: CShock achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.821 (95% CI 0.792-0.850). CShock was externally validated in the more contemporary NYU cohort and achieved an AUROC of 0.800 (95% CI 0.717-0.884), demonstrating its generalizability in other cardiac ICUs. Having an elevated heart rate is most predictive of cardiogenic shock development based on Shapley values. The other top ten predictors are having an admission diagnosis of myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation, having an admission diagnosis of acute decompensated heart failure, Braden Scale, Glasgow Coma Scale, Blood urea nitrogen, Systolic blood pressure, Serum chloride, Serum sodium, and Arterial blood pH. CONCLUSIONS: The novel CShock score has the potential to provide automated detection and early warning for cardiogenic shock and improve the outcomes for the millions of patients who suffer from myocardial infarction and heart failure.

Generative Artificial Intelligence to Transform Inpatient Discharge Summaries to Patient-Friendly Language and Format.

Importance: By law, patients have immediate access to discharge notes in their medical records. Technical language and abbreviations make notes difficult to read and understand for a typical patient. Large language models (LLMs [eg, GPT-4]) have the potential to transform these notes into patient-friendly language and format. Objective: To determine whether an LLM can transform discharge summaries into a format that is more readable and understandable. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study evaluated a sample of the discharge summaries of adult patients discharged from the General Internal Medicine service at NYU (New York University) Langone Health from June 1 to 30, 2023. Patients discharged as deceased were excluded. All discharge summaries were processed by the LLM between July 26 and August 5, 2023. Interventions: A secure Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act-compliant platform, Microsoft Azure OpenAI, was used to transform these discharge summaries into a patient-friendly format between July 26 and August 5, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included readability as measured by Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level and understandability using Patient Education Materials Assessment Tool (PEMAT) scores. Readability and understandability of the original discharge summaries were compared with the transformed, patient-friendly discharge summaries created through the LLM. As balancing metrics, accuracy and completeness of the patient-friendly version were measured. Results: Discharge summaries of 50 patients (31 female [62.0%] and 19 male [38.0%]) were included. The median patient age was 65.5 (IQR, 59.0-77.5) years. Mean (SD) Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level was significantly lower in the patient-friendly discharge summaries (6.2 [0.5] vs 11.0 [1.5]; P < .001). PEMAT understandability scores were significantly higher for patient-friendly discharge summaries (81% vs 13%; P < .001). Two physicians reviewed each patient-friendly discharge summary for accuracy on a 6-point scale, with 54 of 100 reviews (54.0%) giving the best possible rating of 6. Summaries were rated entirely complete in 56 reviews (56.0%). Eighteen reviews noted safety concerns, mostly involving omissions, but also several inaccurate statements (termed hallucinations). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cross-sectional study of 50 discharge summaries suggest that LLMs can be used to translate discharge summaries into patient-friendly language and formats that are significantly more readable and understandable than discharge summaries as they appear in electronic health records. However, implementation will require improvements in accuracy, completeness, and safety. Given the safety concerns, initial implementation will require physician review.

Evaluating Large Language Models in Extracting Cognitive Exam Dates and Scores.

Importance: Large language models (LLMs) are crucial for medical tasks. Ensuring their reliability is vital to avoid false results. Our study assesses two state-of-the-art LLMs (ChatGPT and LlaMA-2) for extracting clinical information, focusing on cognitive tests like MMSE and CDR. Objective: Evaluate ChatGPT and LlaMA-2 performance in extracting MMSE and CDR scores, including their associated dates. Methods: Our data consisted of 135,307 clinical notes (Jan 12th, 2010 to May 24th, 2023) mentioning MMSE, CDR, or MoCA. After applying inclusion criteria 34,465 notes remained, of which 765 underwent ChatGPT (GPT-4) and LlaMA-2, and 22 experts reviewed the responses. ChatGPT successfully extracted MMSE and CDR instances with dates from 742 notes. We used 20 notes for fine-tuning and training the reviewers. The remaining 722 were assigned to reviewers, with 309 each assigned to two reviewers simultaneously. Inter-rater-agreement (Fleiss' Kappa), precision, recall, true/false negative rates, and accuracy were calculated. Our study follows TRIPOD reporting guidelines for model validation. Results: For MMSE information extraction, ChatGPT (vs. LlaMA-2) achieved accuracy of 83% (vs. 66.4%), sensitivity of 89.7% (vs. 69.9%), true-negative rates of 96% (vs 60.0%), and precision of 82.7% (vs 62.2%). For CDR the results were lower overall, with accuracy of 87.1% (vs. 74.5%), sensitivity of 84.3% (vs. 39.7%), true-negative rates of 99.8% (98.4%), and precision of 48.3% (vs. 16.1%). We qualitatively evaluated the MMSE errors of ChatGPT and LlaMA-2 on double-reviewed notes. LlaMA-2 errors included 27 cases of total hallucination, 19 cases of reporting other scores instead of MMSE, 25 missed scores, and 23 cases of reporting only the wrong date. In comparison, ChatGPT's errors included only 3 cases of total hallucination, 17 cases of wrong test reported instead of MMSE, and 19 cases of reporting a wrong date. Conclusions: In this diagnostic/prognostic study of ChatGPT and LlaMA-2 for extracting cognitive exam dates and scores from clinical notes, ChatGPT exhibited high accuracy, with better performance compared to LlaMA-2. The use of LLMs could benefit dementia research and clinical care, by identifying eligible patients for treatments initialization or clinical trial enrollments. Rigorous evaluation of LLMs is crucial to understanding their capabilities and limitations.

Marketing and US Food and Drug Administration Clearance of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Enabled Software in and as Medical Devices: A Systematic Review.

Importance: The marketing of health care devices enabled for use with artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) is regulated in the US by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which is responsible for approving and regulating medical devices. Currently, there are no uniform guidelines set by the FDA to regulate AI- or ML-enabled medical devices, and discrepancies between FDA-approved indications for use and device marketing require articulation. Objective: To explore any discrepancy between marketing and 510(k) clearance of AI- or ML-enabled medical devices. Evidence Review: This systematic review was a manually conducted survey of 510(k) approval summaries and accompanying marketing materials of devices approved between November 2021 and March 2022, conducted between March and November 2022, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline. Analysis focused on the prevalence of discrepancies between marketing and certification material for AI/ML enabled medical devices. Findings: A total of 119 FDA 510(k) clearance summaries were analyzed in tandem with their respective marketing materials. The devices were taxonomized into 3 individual categories of adherent, contentious, and discrepant devices. A total of 15 devices (12.61%) were considered discrepant, 8 devices (6.72%) were considered contentious, and 96 devices (84.03%) were consistent between marketing and FDA 510(k) clearance summaries. Most devices were from the radiological approval committees (75 devices [82.35%]), with 62 of these devices (82.67%) adherent, 3 (4.00%) contentious, and 10 (13.33%) discrepant; followed by the cardiovascular device approval committee (23 devices [19.33%]), with 19 of these devices (82.61%) considered adherent, 2 contentious (8.70%) and 2 discrepant (8.70%). The difference between these 3 categories in cardiovascular and radiological devices was statistically significant (P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review, low adherence rates within committees were observed most often in committees with few AI- or ML-enabled devices. and discrepancies between clearance documentation and marketing material were present in one-fifth of devices surveyed.

Health system-scale language models are all-purpose prediction engines.

Physicians make critical time-constrained decisions every day. Clinical predictive models can help physicians and administrators make decisions by forecasting clinical and operational events. Existing structured data-based clinical predictive models have limited use in everyday practice owing to complexity in data processing, as well as model development and deployment1-3. Here we show that unstructured clinical notes from the electronic health record can enable the training of clinical language models, which can be used as all-purpose clinical predictive engines with low-resistance development and deployment. Our approach leverages recent advances in natural language processing4,5 to train a large language model for medical language (NYUTron) and subsequently fine-tune it across a wide range of clinical and operational predictive tasks. We evaluated our approach within our health system for five such tasks: 30-day all-cause readmission prediction, in-hospital mortality prediction, comorbidity index prediction, length of stay prediction, and insurance denial prediction. We show that NYUTron has an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.7-94.9%, with an improvement of 5.36-14.7% in the AUC compared with traditional models. We additionally demonstrate the benefits of pretraining with clinical text, the potential for increasing generalizability to different sites through fine-tuning and the full deployment of our system in a prospective, single-arm trial. These results show the potential for using clinical language models in medicine to read alongside physicians and provide guidance at the point of care.

Methods and Impact for Using Federated Learning to Collaborate on Clinical Research.

BACKGROUND: The development of accurate machine learning algorithms requires sufficient quantities of diverse data. This poses a challenge in health care because of the sensitive and siloed nature of biomedical information. Decentralized algorithms through federated learning (FL) avoid data aggregation by instead distributing algorithms to the data before centrally updating one global model. OBJECTIVE: To establish a multicenter collaboration and assess the feasibility of using FL to train machine learning models for intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) detection without sharing data between sites. METHODS: Five neurosurgery departments across the United States collaborated to establish a federated network and train a convolutional neural network to detect ICH on computed tomography scans. The global FL model was benchmarked against a standard, centrally trained model using a held-out data set and was compared against locally trained models using site data. RESULTS: A federated network of practicing neurosurgeon scientists was successfully initiated to train a model for predicting ICH. The FL model achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.9487 (95% CI 0.9471-0.9503) when predicting all subtypes of ICH compared with a benchmark (non-FL) area under the ROC curve of 0.9753 (95% CI 0.9742-0.9764), although performance varied by subtype. The FL model consistently achieved top three performance when validated on any site's data, suggesting improved generalizability. A qualitative survey described the experience of participants in the federated network. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the feasibility of implementing a federated network for multi-institutional collaboration among clinicians and using FL to conduct machine learning research, thereby opening a new paradigm for neurosurgical collaboration.

Evaluating the Effect of a COVID-19 Predictive Model to Facilitate Discharge: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: We previously developed and validated a predictive model to help clinicians identify hospitalized adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who may be ready for discharge given their low risk of adverse events. Whether this algorithm can prompt more timely discharge for stable patients in practice is unknown. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study is to estimate the effect of displaying risk scores on length of stay (LOS). METHODS: We integrated model output into the electronic health record (EHR) at four hospitals in one health system by displaying a green/orange/red score indicating low/moderate/high-risk in a patient list column and a larger COVID-19 summary report visible for each patient. Display of the score was pseudo-randomized 1:1 into intervention and control arms using a patient identifier passed to the model execution code. Intervention effect was assessed by comparing LOS between intervention and control groups. Adverse safety outcomes of death, hospice, and re-presentation were tested separately and as a composite indicator. We tracked adoption and sustained use through daily counts of score displays. RESULTS: Enrolling 1,010 patients from May 15, 2020 to December 7, 2020, the trial found no detectable difference in LOS. The intervention had no impact on safety indicators of death, hospice or re-presentation after discharge. The scores were displayed consistently throughout the study period but the study lacks a causally linked process measure of provider actions based on the score. Secondary analysis revealed complex dynamics in LOS temporally, by primary symptom, and hospital location. CONCLUSION: An AI-based COVID-19 risk score displayed passively to clinicians during routine care of hospitalized adults with COVID-19 was safe but had no detectable impact on LOS. Health technology challenges such as insufficient adoption, nonuniform use, and provider trust compounded with temporal factors of the COVID-19 pandemic may have contributed to the null result. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04570488.

Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model for Automated Assessment of Resident Clinical Reasoning Documentation.

BACKGROUND: Residents receive infrequent feedback on their clinical reasoning (CR) documentation. While machine learning (ML) and natural language processing (NLP) have been used to assess CR documentation in standardized cases, no studies have described similar use in the clinical environment. OBJECTIVE: The authors developed and validated using Kane's framework a ML model for automated assessment of CR documentation quality in residents' admission notes. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS, MAIN MEASURES: Internal medicine residents' and subspecialty fellows' admission notes at one medical center from July 2014 to March 2020 were extracted from the electronic health record. Using a validated CR documentation rubric, the authors rated 414 notes for the ML development dataset. Notes were truncated to isolate the relevant portion; an NLP software (cTAKES) extracted disease/disorder named entities and human review generated CR terms. The final model had three input variables and classified notes as demonstrating low- or high-quality CR documentation. The ML model was applied to a retrospective dataset (9591 notes) for human validation and data analysis. Reliability between human and ML ratings was assessed on 205 of these notes with Cohen's kappa. CR documentation quality by post-graduate year (PGY) was evaluated by the Mantel-Haenszel test of trend. KEY RESULTS: The top-performing logistic regression model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88, a positive predictive value of 0.68, and an accuracy of 0.79. Cohen's kappa was 0.67. Of the 9591 notes, 31.1% demonstrated high-quality CR documentation; quality increased from 27.0% (PGY1) to 31.0% (PGY2) to 39.0% (PGY3) (p < .001 for trend). Validity evidence was collected in each domain of Kane's framework (scoring, generalization, extrapolation, and implications). CONCLUSIONS: The authors developed and validated a high-performing ML model that classifies CR documentation quality in resident admission notes in the clinical environment-a novel application of ML and NLP with many potential use cases.

Open-Source Clinical Machine Learning Models: Critical Appraisal of Feasibility, Advantages, and Challenges.

Machine learning applications promise to augment clinical capabilities and at least 64 models have already been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. These tools are developed, shared, and used in an environment in which regulations and market forces remain immature. An important consideration when evaluating this environment is the introduction of open-source solutions in which innovations are freely shared; such solutions have long been a facet of digital culture. We discuss the feasibility and implications of open-source machine learning in a health care infrastructure built upon proprietary information. The decreased cost of development as compared to drugs and devices, a longstanding culture of open-source products in other industries, and the beginnings of machine learning-friendly regulatory pathways together allow for the development and deployment of open-source machine learning models. Such tools have distinct advantages including enhanced product integrity, customizability, and lower cost, leading to increased access. However, significant questions regarding engineering concerns about implementation infrastructure and model safety, a lack of incentives from intellectual property protection, and nebulous liability rules significantly complicate the ability to develop such open-source models. Ultimately, the reconciliation of open-source machine learning and the proprietary information-driven health care environment requires that policymakers, regulators, and health care organizations actively craft a conducive market in which innovative developers will continue to both work and collaborate.

Development of a Clinical Reasoning Documentation Assessment Tool for Resident and Fellow Admission Notes: a Shared Mental Model for Feedback.

BACKGROUND: Residents and fellows receive little feedback on their clinical reasoning documentation. Barriers include lack of a shared mental model and variability in the reliability and validity of existing assessment tools. Of the existing tools, the IDEA assessment tool includes a robust assessment of clinical reasoning documentation focusing on four elements (interpretive summary, differential diagnosis, explanation of reasoning for lead and alternative diagnoses) but lacks descriptive anchors threatening its reliability. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to develop a valid and reliable assessment tool for clinical reasoning documentation building off the IDEA assessment tool. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS, AND MAIN MEASURES: The Revised-IDEA assessment tool was developed by four clinician educators through iterative review of admission notes written by medicine residents and fellows and subsequently piloted with additional faculty to ensure response process validity. A random sample of 252 notes from July 2014 to June 2017 written by 30 trainees across several chief complaints was rated. Three raters rated 20% of the notes to demonstrate internal structure validity. A quality cut-off score was determined using Hofstee standard setting. KEY RESULTS: The Revised-IDEA assessment tool includes the same four domains as the IDEA assessment tool with more detailed descriptive prompts, new Likert scale anchors, and a score range of 0-10. Intraclass correlation was high for the notes rated by three raters, 0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.90). Scores ≥6 were determined to demonstrate high-quality clinical reasoning documentation. Only 53% of notes (134/252) were high-quality. CONCLUSIONS: The Revised-IDEA assessment tool is reliable and easy to use for feedback on clinical reasoning documentation in resident and fellow admission notes with descriptive anchors that facilitate a shared mental model for feedback.

Predicting inpatient pharmacy order interventions using provider action data.

OBJECTIVE: The widespread deployment of electronic health records (EHRs) has introduced new sources of error and inefficiencies to the process of ordering medications in the hospital setting. Existing work identifies orders that require pharmacy intervention by comparing them to a patient's medical records. In this work, we develop a machine learning model for identifying medication orders requiring intervention using only provider behavior and other contextual features that may reflect these new sources of inefficiencies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on providers' actions in the EHR system and pharmacy orders were collected over a 2-week period in a major metropolitan hospital system. A classification model was then built to identify orders requiring pharmacist intervention. We tune the model to the context in which it would be deployed and evaluate global and local feature importance. RESULTS: The resultant model had an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.91 and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.44. CONCLUSIONS: Providers' actions can serve as useful predictors in identifying medication orders that require pharmacy intervention. Careful model tuning for the clinical context in which the model is deployed can help to create an effective tool for improving health outcomes without using sensitive patient data.

Validation of parsimonious prognostic models for patients infected with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: Predictive studies play important roles in the development of models informing care for patients with COVID-19. Our concern is that studies producing ill-performing models may lead to inappropriate clinical decision-making. Thus, our objective is to summarise and characterise performance of prognostic models for COVID-19 on external data. METHODS: We performed a validation of parsimonious prognostic models for patients with COVID-19 from a literature search for published and preprint articles. Ten models meeting inclusion criteria were either (a) externally validated with our data against the model variables and weights or (b) rebuilt using original features if no weights were provided. Nine studies had internally or externally validated models on cohorts of between 18 and 320 inpatients with COVID-19. One model used cross-validation. Our external validation cohort consisted of 4444 patients with COVID-19 hospitalised between 1 March and 27 May 2020. RESULTS: Most models failed validation when applied to our institution's data. Included studies reported an average validation area under the receiver-operator curve (AUROC) of 0.828. Models applied with reported features averaged an AUROC of 0.66 when validated on our data. Models rebuilt with the same features averaged an AUROC of 0.755 when validated on our data. In both cases, models did not validate against their studies' reported AUROC values. DISCUSSION: Published and preprint prognostic models for patients infected with COVID-19 performed substantially worse when applied to external data. Further inquiry is required to elucidate mechanisms underlying performance deviations. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should employ caution when applying models for clinical prediction without careful validation on local data.

Development and Validation of a Machine Learning-Based Decision Support Tool for Residency Applicant Screening and Review.

PURPOSE: Residency programs face overwhelming numbers of residency applications, limiting holistic review. Artificial intelligence techniques have been proposed to address this challenge but have not been created. Here, a multidisciplinary team sought to develop and validate a machine learning (ML)-based decision support tool (DST) for residency applicant screening and review. METHOD: Categorical applicant data from the 2018, 2019, and 2020 residency application cycles (n = 8,243 applicants) at one large internal medicine residency program were downloaded from the Electronic Residency Application Service and linked to the outcome measure: interview invitation by human reviewers (n = 1,235 invites). An ML model using gradient boosting was designed using training data (80% of applicants) with over 60 applicant features (e.g., demographics, experiences, academic metrics). Model performance was validated on held-out data (20% of applicants). Sensitivity analysis was conducted without United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores. An interactive DST incorporating the ML model was designed and deployed that provided applicant- and cohort-level visualizations. RESULTS: The ML model areas under the receiver operating characteristic and precision recall curves were 0.95 and 0.76, respectively; these changed to 0.94 and 0.72, respectively, with removal of USMLE scores. Applicants' medical school information was an important driver of predictions-which had face validity based on the local selection process-but numerous predictors contributed. Program directors used the DST in the 2021 application cycle to select 20 applicants for interview that had been initially screened out during human review. CONCLUSIONS: The authors developed and validated an ML algorithm for predicting residency interview offers from numerous application elements with high performance-even when USMLE scores were removed. Model deployment in a DST highlighted its potential for screening candidates and helped quantify and mitigate biases existing in the selection process. Further work will incorporate unstructured textual data through natural language processing methods.

An artificial intelligence system for predicting the deterioration of COVID-19 patients in the emergency department.

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, rapid and accurate triage of patients at the emergency department is critical to inform decision-making. We propose a data-driven approach for automatic prediction of deterioration risk using a deep neural network that learns from chest X-ray images and a gradient boosting model that learns from routine clinical variables. Our AI prognosis system, trained using data from 3661 patients, achieves an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.786 (95% CI: 0.745-0.830) when predicting deterioration within 96 hours. The deep neural network extracts informative areas of chest X-ray images to assist clinicians in interpreting the predictions and performs comparably to two radiologists in a reader study. In order to verify performance in a real clinical setting, we silently deployed a preliminary version of the deep neural network at New York University Langone Health during the first wave of the pandemic, which produced accurate predictions in real-time. In summary, our findings demonstrate the potential of the proposed system for assisting front-line physicians in the triage of COVID-19 patients.

Have We Learned to Explain?: How Interpretability Methods Can Learn to Encode Predictions in their Interpretations.

While the need for interpretable machine learning has been established, many common approaches are slow, lack fidelity, or hard to evaluate. Amortized explanation methods reduce the cost of providing interpretations by learning a global selector model that returns feature importances for a single instance of data. The selector model is trained to optimize the fidelity of the interpretations, as evaluated by a predictor model for the target. Popular methods learn the selector and predictor model in concert, which we show allows predictions to be encoded within interpretations. We introduce EVAL-X as a method to quantitatively evaluate interpretations and REAL-X as an amortized explanation method, which learn a predictor model that approximates the true data generating distribution given any subset of the input. We show EVAL-X can detect when predictions are encoded in interpretations and show the advantages of REAL-X through quantitative and radiologist evaluation.

COVID-19 Prognosis via Self-Supervised Representation Learning and Multi-Image Prediction.

The rapid spread of COVID-19 cases in recent months has strained hospital resources, making rapid and accurate triage of patients presenting to emergency departments a necessity. Machine learning techniques using clinical data such as chest X-rays have been used to predict which patients are most at risk of deterioration. We consider the task of predicting two types of patient deterioration based on chest X-rays: adverse event deterioration (i.e., transfer to the intensive care unit, intubation, or mortality) and increased oxygen requirements beyond 6 L per day. Due to the relative scarcity of COVID-19 patient data, existing solutions leverage supervised pretraining on related non-COVID images, but this is limited by the differences between the pretraining data and the target COVID-19 patient data. In this paper, we use self-supervised learning based on the momentum contrast (MoCo) method in the pretraining phase to learn more general image representations to use for downstream tasks. We present three results. The first is deterioration prediction from a single image, where our model achieves an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.742 for predicting an adverse event within 96 hours (compared to 0.703 with supervised pretraining) and an AUC of 0.765 for predicting oxygen requirements greater than 6 L a day at 24 hours (compared to 0.749 with supervised pretraining). We then propose a new transformer-based architecture that can process sequences of multiple images for prediction and show that this model can achieve an improved AUC of 0.786 for predicting an adverse event at 96 hours and an AUC of 0.848 for predicting mortalities at 96 hours. A small pilot clinical study suggested that the prediction accuracy of our model is comparable to that of experienced radiologists analyzing the same information.

Prediction of Resuscitation for Pediatric Sepsis from Data Available at Triage.

Pediatric sepsis imposes a significant burden of morbidity and mortality among children. While the speedy application of existing supportive care measures can substantially improve outcomes, further improvements in delivering that care require tools that go beyond recognizing sepsis and towards predicting its development. Machine learning techniques have great potential as predictive tools, but their application to pediatric sepsis has been stymied by several factors, particularly the relative rarity of its occurrence. We propose an alternate approach which focuses on predicting the provision of resuscitative care, rather than sepsis diagnoses or criteria themselves. Using three years of Emergency Department data from a large academic medical center, we developed a boosted tree model that predicts resuscitation within 6 hours of triage, and significantly outperforms existing rule-based sepsis alerts.