When physician supply does not meet patient demand: A looming epidemic in vascular and renal care for a community with the highest incidence of end-stage renal disease in the United States.

BACKGROUND: South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) are medically underserved-communities near the Texas-Mexico border with the highest incidence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the nation, and a shortage of available full-time equivalent (FTE) specialty-physicians. METHODS: Data on the incidence/prevalence of ESRD and workforce projections on vascular-surgeons and nephrologists were collected from the United States Renal Data System and Texas Department of State Health Services. We then merged data from both datasets to identify population-specific healthcare-trends. RESULTS: Texas had the highest rates of ESRD from 2016 to 2020, with its border regions leading the state. By 2032, vascular-surgery and nephrology are projected to have the 1st and 4th worst physician-shortages in the state respectively, with the percentage of these FTE specialty-physicians available to meet the need of the RGV ranging from 42.3 to 58.4 â€‹%. CONCLUSIONS: The RGV is experiencing increased rates of ESRD, while having a paradoxical-decline in specialty-physicians available to provide adequate care.