The Problem with Delaying Measles Elimination.

Measles is a highly infectious disease leading to high morbidity and mortality impacting people's lives and economies across the globe. The measles vaccine saves more lives than any other vaccine in the Essential Programme of Immunization and is also the most cost-effective vaccine, with an extremely high return on investment. This makes achieving measles elimination through vaccination a key child health intervention, particularly in low-income countries, where the overwhelming majority of measles deaths continue to occur. All countries and regions of the world have committed to achieving measles elimination, yet many have faced challenges securing political commitment at national and global levels and predictable, timely, and flexible support from global donors, and experienced setbacks during the COVID-19 pandemic. This has happened against a backdrop of stagnant measles vaccination coverage and declining enthusiasm for vertical programmes, culminating in a World Health Organization Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (WHO SAGE) review of the feasibility of measles eradication in 2019. Sustaining the elimination of measles long term is extremely difficult, and some countries have lost or nearly lost their measles elimination status in the face of ongoing importation of cases from neighbouring or closely connected countries in which elimination had been delayed. Thus, a widening equity gap in measles immunisation coverage creates challenges for all countries, not just those facing the greatest burden of measles morbidity and mortality. Delaying elimination of measles in some countries makes it cumulatively harder for all countries to succeed for three principal reasons: increased inequity in measles immunisation coverage makes outbreaks more likely to happen and to be larger; political will is very difficult to sustain; and immunity may wane to a point that transmission is re-established. New strategies are needed to support countries and regions in their vision for a world without measles, including ways to galvanise domestic, regional and global resources and ignite the political will that is essential to make the vision a reality.

Global inequity creates local insufficiency: A qualitative study of COVID-19 vaccine implementation challenges in low-and-middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has amplified pre-existing challenges to health promotion and care across the world, and particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This qualitative study draws on data from a panel of immunisation experts and uses a novel framework of vaccine delivery domains to explore perspectives from those who live and work in these settings on the challenges to implementing COVID-19 vaccine programs in LMICs. METHODS: We conducted a thematic content analysis of 96 participant free text replies to questions from Round I of a three-round Delphi consensus study amongst global experts on COVID-19 vaccine implementation. RESULTS: Participant responses highlighted challenges to vaccine program implementation including issues related to equity; governance, decision-making, and financing; regulatory structures, planning, and coordination; prioritisation, demand generation, and communication; vaccine, cold chain, logistics, and infrastructure; service delivery, human resources, and supplies; and surveillance, monitoring, and evaluation. CONCLUSION: We reflect on our findings in light of global efforts to address vaccine inequity and emphasise three key areas salient to improving vaccination efforts during novel infectious disease outbreaks: 1) Ensuring safe and sustainable service delivery in communities and at points of care; 2) Strengthening systems for end-to-end delivery of vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics, and essential supplies; 3) Transforming structural paradigms towards vaccine equity.

South Asian Youth as Vaccine Agents of Change (SAY-VAC): evaluation of a public health programme to mobilise and empower South Asian youth to foster COVID-19 vaccine-related evidence-based dialogue in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: There have been substantial amounts of misinformation surrounding the importance, safety and effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine. The impacts of this misinformation may be augmented as they circulate among ethnic communities, who may concurrently face other barriers related to vaccine uptake and access. To combat some of the key sources of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation among the South Asian communities of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), an interdisciplinary team of researchers and marketing experts established the South Asian Youth as Vaccine Agents of Change (SAY-VAC) programme to support and empower South Asian youth to disseminate COVID-19 vaccine information. DESIGN: Cross-sectional and one-group pretest-post-test design. SETTING: GTHA. PARTICIPANTS: South Asian youth (18-29 years). INTERVENTION: The team partnered with grass-roots South Asian organisations to collaborate on shared objectives, curate key concerns, create video products regarding the COVID-19 vaccine that would resonate with the community, disseminate the products using established social media channels and evaluate the effectiveness of this effort. OUTCOMES: We assessed the change in self-reported knowledge about the COVID-19 vaccine and participant confidence to facilitate a conversation around the COVID-19 vaccine using pre-post surveys, after the implementation of the SAY-VAC programme. RESULTS: In total, 30 South Asian youth (median age=23.2 years) from the GTHA participated in the programme. After completing the SAY-VAC programme, participants reported an increase in their self-reported knowledge regarding the COVID-19 vaccine from 73.3% to 100.0% (p=0.005), and their self-reported confidence to have a conversation about the vaccine with their unvaccinated community members increased from 63.6% to 100.0% (p=0.002). Overall, 51.9% of the participants reported being able to positively affect an unvaccinated/community member's decision to get vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: The SAY-VAC programme highlights the importance of community partnerships in developing and disseminating culturally responsive health communication strategies. A constant assessment of the evidence and utilisation of non-traditional avenues to engage the public are essential.

In Elimination Settings, Measles Antibodies Wane After Vaccination but Not After Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a systematic review to assess whether measles humoral immunity wanes in previously infected or vaccinated populations in measles elimination settings. METHODS: After screening 16 822 citations, we identified 9 articles from populations exposed to wild-type measles and 16 articles from vaccinated populations that met our inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Using linear regression, we found that geometric mean titers (GMTs) decreased significantly in individuals who received 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) by 121.8 mIU/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], -212.4 to -31.1) per year since vaccination over 1 to 5 years, 53.7 mIU/mL (95% CI, -95.3 to -12.2) 5 to 10 years, 33.2 mIU/mL (95% CI, -62.6 to -3.9), 10 to 15 years, and 24.1 mIU/mL (95% CI, -51.5 to 3.3) 15 to 20 years since vaccination. Decreases in GMT over time were not significant after 1 dose of MCV or after infection. Decreases in the proportion of seropositive individuals over time were not significant after 1 or 2 doses of MCV or after infection. CONCLUSIONS: Measles antibody waning in vaccinated populations should be considered in planning for measles elimination.

Identifying priority challenges and solutions for COVID-19 vaccine delivery in low- and middle-income countries: A modified Delphi study.

BACKGROUND: The rapid implementation of global COVID-19 vaccination programs has surfaced many challenges and inequities, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, there continues to be a lack of consensus on which challenges are global priorities for action, and how to best respond to them. This study uses consensus-based methods to identify and rank the most important challenges and solutions for implementation of COVID-19 vaccination programs in LMICs. METHODS: We conducted a three-round modified Delphi study with a global panel of vaccine delivery experts. In Round I, panelists identified broad topical challenges and solutions. Responses were collated and coded into distinct items. Through two further rounds of structured, iterative surveys panelists reviewed and ranked the identified items. Responses were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to achieve consensus on the most important COVID-19 vaccine delivery challenges and solutions. RESULTS: Of the 426 invited panelists, 96 completed Round I, 56 completed Round II, and 39 completed Round III. Across all three rounds there was equal representation by gender, and panelists reported work experience in all World Bank regions and across a variety of content areas and organizations. Of the 64 initially identified items, the panel achieved consensus on three challenges and 10 solutions. Challenges fell under themes of structural factors and infrastructure and human and material resources, while solutions also included items within themes of communication, community engagement, and access and planning, processes, and operations. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 vaccine delivery is challenged by long-standing and structural inequities that disadvantage health service delivery in LMICs. These findings can, and should, be used by global health organizations to efficiently and optimally direct resources to respond to these key challenges and solutions.

SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Ontario health care workers during and after the first wave of the pandemic: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Health care workers have a critical role in the pandemic response to COVID-19 and may be at increased risk of infection. The objective of this study was to assess the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies among health care workers during and after the first wave of the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a prospective multicentre cohort study involving health care workers in Ontario, Canada, to detect IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Blood samples and self-reported questionnaires were obtained at enrolment, at 6 weeks and at 12 weeks. A community hospital, tertiary care pediatric hospital and a combined adult-pediatric academic health centre enrolled participants from Apr. 1 to Nov. 13, 2020. Predictors of seropositivity were evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for clustering by hospital site. RESULTS: Among the 1062 health care workers participating, the median age was 40 years, and 834 (78.5%) were female. Overall, 57 (5.4%) were seropositive at any time point (2.5% when participants with prior infection confirmed by polymerase chain reaction testing were excluded). Seroprevalence was higher among those who had a known unprotected exposure to a patient with COVID-19 (p < 0.001) and those who had been contacted by public health because of a nonhospital exposure (p = 0.003). Providing direct care to patients with COVID-19 or working on a unit with a COVID-19 outbreak was not associated with higher seroprevalence. In multivariable logistic regression, presence of symptomatic contacts in the household was the strongest predictor of seropositivity (adjusted odds ratio 7.15, 95% confidence interval 5.42-9.41). INTERPRETATION: Health care workers exposed to household risk factors were more likely to be seropositive than those not exposed, highlighting the need to emphasize the importance of public health measures both inside and outside of the hospital.

Comprehensive Clinical and Laboratory Follow-up of a Female Patient With Ebola Virus Disease: Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study.

The clinical, virologic, and immunologic findings in a female Ebola virus disease patient are described. During the long-term follow-up, Ebola virus RNA was detectable in vaginal fluid before 36 days after symptom onset, with nearly an identical genome sequence as in acute phase blood. Ebola-specific T cells retained activation at 56 days after disease onset.

Development of risk reduction behavioral counseling for Ebola virus disease survivors enrolled in the Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study, 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: During the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, the public health community had concerns that sexual transmission of the Ebola virus (EBOV) from EVD survivors was a risk, due to EBOV persistence in body fluids of EVD survivors, particularly semen. The Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study was initiated to investigate this risk by assessing EBOV persistence in numerous body fluids of EVD survivors and providing risk reduction counseling based on test results for semen, vaginal fluid, menstrual blood, urine, rectal fluid, sweat, tears, saliva, and breast milk. This publication describes implementation of the counseling protocol and the key lessons learned. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol was developed from a framework used to prevent transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The framework helped to identify barriers to risk reduction and facilitated the development of a personalized risk-reduction plan, particularly around condom use and abstinence. Pre-test and post-test counseling sessions included risk reduction guidance, and post-test counseling was based on the participants' individual test results. The behavioral counseling protocol enabled study staff to translate the study's body fluid test results into individualized information for study participants. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol provided guidance to mitigate the risk of EBOV transmission from EVD survivors. It has since been shared with and adapted by other EVD survivor body fluid testing programs and studies in Ebola-affected countries.

Implementation of a study to examine the persistence of Ebola virus in the body fluids of Ebola virus disease survivors in Sierra Leone: Methodology and lessons learned.

BACKGROUND: The 2013-2016 West African Ebola virus disease epidemic was unprecedented in terms of the number of cases and survivors. Prior to this epidemic there was limited data available on the persistence of Ebola virus in survivors' body fluids and the potential risk of transmission, including sexual transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Given the urgent need to determine the persistence of Ebola virus in survivors' body fluids, an observational cohort study was designed and implemented during the epidemic response operation in Sierra Leone. This publication describes study implementation methodology and the key lessons learned. Challenges encountered during implementation included unforeseen duration of follow-up, complexity of interpreting and communicating laboratory results to survivors, and the urgency of translating research findings into public health practice. Strong community engagement helped rapidly implement the study during the epidemic. The study was conducted in two phases. The first phase was initiated within five months of initial protocol discussions and assessed persistence of Ebola virus in semen of 100 adult men. The second phase assessed the persistence of virus in multiple body fluids (semen or vaginal fluid, menstrual blood, breast milk, and urine, rectal fluid, sweat, saliva, tears), of 120 men and 120 women. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Data from this study informed national and global guidelines in real time and demonstrated the need to implement semen testing programs among Ebola virus disease survivors. The lessons learned and study tools developed accelerated the implementation of such programs in Ebola virus disease affected countries, and also informed studies examining persistence of Zika virus. Research is a vital component of the public health response to an epidemic of a poorly characterized disease. Adequate resources should be rapidly made available to answer critical research questions, in order to better inform response efforts.

Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016.

The 2013-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the largest on record with 28 616 confirmed, probable and suspected cases and 11 310 deaths officially recorded by 10 June 2016, the true burden probably considerably higher. The case fatality ratio (CFR: proportion of cases that are fatal) is a key indicator of disease severity useful for gauging the appropriate public health response and for evaluating treatment benefits, if estimated accurately. We analysed individual-level clinical outcome data from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone officially reported to the World Health Organization. The overall mean CFR was 62.9% (95% CI: 61.9% to 64.0%) among confirmed cases with recorded clinical outcomes. Age was the most important modifier of survival probabilities, but country, stage of the epidemic and whether patients were hospitalized also played roles. We developed a statistical analysis to detect outliers in CFR between districts of residence and treatment centres (TCs), adjusting for known factors influencing survival and identified eight districts and three TCs with a CFR significantly different from the average. From the current dataset, we cannot determine whether the observed variation in CFR seen by district or treatment centre reflects real differences in survival, related to the quality of care or other factors or was caused by differences in reporting practices or case ascertainment.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.

Ebola RNA Persistence in Semen of Ebola Virus Disease Survivors - Final Report.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus has been detected in the semen of men after their recovery from Ebola virus disease (EVD). We report the presence of Ebola virus RNA in semen in a cohort of survivors of EVD in Sierra Leone. METHODS: We enrolled a convenience sample of 220 adult male survivors of EVD in Sierra Leone, at various times after discharge from an Ebola treatment unit (ETU), in two phases (100 participants were in phase 1, and 120 in phase 2). Semen specimens obtained at baseline were tested by means of a quantitative reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay with the use of the target sequences of NP and VP40 (in phase 1) or NP and GP (in phase 2). This study did not evaluate directly the risk of sexual transmission of EVD. RESULTS: Of 210 participants who provided an initial semen specimen for analysis, 57 (27%) had positive results on quantitative RT-PCR. Ebola virus RNA was detected in the semen of all 7 men with a specimen obtained within 3 months after ETU discharge, in 26 of 42 (62%) with a specimen obtained at 4 to 6 months, in 15 of 60 (25%) with a specimen obtained at 7 to 9 months, in 4 of 26 (15%) with a specimen obtained at 10 to 12 months, in 4 of 38 (11%) with a specimen obtained at 13 to 15 months, in 1 of 25 (4%) with a specimen obtained at 16 to 18 months, and in no men with a specimen obtained at 19 months or later. Among the 46 participants with a positive result in phase 1, the median baseline cycle-threshold values (higher values indicate lower RNA values) for the NP and VP40 targets were lower within 3 months after ETU discharge (32.4 and 31.3, respectively; in 7 men) than at 4 to 6 months (34.3 and 33.1; in 25), at 7 to 9 months (37.4 and 36.6; in 13), and at 10 to 12 months (37.7 and 36.9; in 1). In phase 2, a total of 11 participants had positive results for NP and GP targets (samples obtained at 4.1 to 15.7 months after ETU discharge); cycle-threshold values ranged from 32.7 to 38.0 for NP and from 31.1 to 37.7 for GP. CONCLUSIONS: These data showed the long-term presence of Ebola virus RNA in semen and declining persistence with increasing time after ETU discharge. (Funded by the World Health Organization and others.).

Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications). CONCLUSIONS: Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.