Advanced glycation end products measured by skin autofluorescence and subclinical cardiovascular disease: the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) have been linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD), especially coronary heart disease (CHD), but their role in CVD pathogenesis remains unclear. Therefore, we investigated cross-sectional associations of skin AGEs with subclinical atherosclerosis, arterial stiffness, and hypertension after confirming their relation with CHD. METHODS: In the population-based Rotterdam Study, skin AGEs were measured as skin autofluorescence (SAF). Prevalent MI was obtained from digital medical records. Carotid plaques, carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), coronary artery calcification (CAC), pulse wave velocity (PWV), and hypertension were assessed. Associations of SAF with endophenotypes were investigated in logistic and linear regression models adjusting for common cardiovascular risk factors. Effect modification by sex, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) was tested. RESULTS: 3001 participants were included (mean age 73 (SD 9) years, 57% women). One unit higher SAF was associated with the presence of carotid plaques (OR 1.2 (0.92, 1.57)), a higher max IMT (0.08 SD (0.01, 0.15)), higher CAC (OR 2.2 (1.39, 3.48)), and PWV (0.09 SD (0.01, 0.16)), but not with hypertension (OR 0.99 (0.81, 1.21)). The associations with endophenotypes were more pronounced in men and participants with diabetes or CKD with significant interactions. CONCLUSIONS: Previously documented associations between SAF and CVD, also found in our study, may be explained by the endophenotypes atherosclerosis and arterial stiffness, especially in men and individuals with diabetes or CKD, but not by hypertension. Longitudinal studies are needed to replicate these findings and to test if SAF is an independent risk factor or biomarker of CVD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Rotterdam Study has been entered into the Netherlands National Trial Register (NTR; www.trialregister.nl ) and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP; www.who.int/ictrp/network/primary/en/ ) under shared catalogue number NTR6831.

What proportion of clinical prediction models make it to clinical practice? Protocol for a two-track follow-up study of prediction model development publications.

INTRODUCTION: It is known that only a limited proportion of developed clinical prediction models (CPMs) are implemented and/or used in clinical practice. This may result in a large amount of research waste, even when considering that some CPMs may demonstrate poor performance. Cross-sectional estimates of the numbers of CPMs that have been developed, validated, evaluated for impact or utilized in practice, have been made in specific medical fields, but studies across multiple fields and studies following up the fate of CPMs are lacking. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We have conducted a systematic search for prediction model studies published between January 1995 and December 2020 using the Pubmed and Embase databases, applying a validated search strategy. Taking random samples for every calendar year, abstracts and articles were screened until a target of 100 CPM development studies were identified. Next, we will perform a forward citation search of the resulting CPM development article cohort to identify articles on external validation, impact assessment or implementation of those CPMs. We will also invite the authors of the development studies to complete an online survey to track implementation and clinical utilization of the CPMs.We will conduct a descriptive synthesis of the included studies, using data from the forward citation search and online survey to quantify the proportion of developed models that are validated, assessed for their impact, implemented and/or used in patient care. We will conduct time-to-event analysis using Kaplan-Meier plots. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No patient data are involved in the research. Most information will be extracted from published articles. We request written informed consent from the survey respondents. Results will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at international conferences. OSF REGISTRATION: (https://osf.io/nj8s9).

Heart Rate Variability and Incident Type 2 Diabetes in General Population.

CONTEXT: Hyperglycemia and autonomic dysfunction are bidirectionally related. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association of longitudinal evolution of heart rate variability (HRV) with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) among the general population. METHODS: We included 7630 participants (mean age 63.7 years, 58% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study who had no history of T2D and atrial fibrillation at baseline and had repeated HRV assessments at baseline and during follow-up. We used joint models to assess the association between longitudinal evolution of heart rate and different HRV metrics (including the heart rate-corrected SD of the normal-to-normal RR intervals [SDNNc], and root mean square of successive RR-interval differences [RMSSDc]) with incident T2D. Models were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors. Bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary-level data was also performed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 871 individuals developed incident T2D. One SD increase in heart rate (hazard ratio [HR] 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09-1.33), and log(RMSSDc) (HR 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.33) were independently associated with incident T2D. The HRs were 1.54 (95% CI, 1.08-2.06) for participants younger than 62 years and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01-1.31) for those older than 62 years for heart rate (P for interaction <.001). Results from bidirectional MR analyses suggested that HRV and T2D were not significantly related to each other. CONCLUSION: Autonomic dysfunction precedes development of T2D, especially among younger individuals, while MR analysis suggests no causal relationship. More studies are needed to further validate our findings.

DNA repair in cardiomyocytes is critical for maintaining cardiac function in mice.

Heart failure has reached epidemic proportions in a progressively ageing population. The molecular mechanisms underlying heart failure remain elusive, but evidence indicates that DNA damage is enhanced in failing hearts. Here, we tested the hypothesis that endogenous DNA repair in cardiomyocytes is critical for maintaining normal cardiac function, so that perturbed repair of spontaneous DNA damage drives early onset of heart failure. To increase the burden of spontaneous DNA damage, we knocked out the DNA repair endonucleases xeroderma pigmentosum complementation group G (XPG) and excision repair cross-complementation group 1 (ERCC1), either systemically or cardiomyocyte-restricted, and studied the effects on cardiac function and structure. Loss of DNA repair permitted normal heart development but subsequently caused progressive deterioration of cardiac function, resulting in overt congestive heart failure and premature death within 6 months. Cardiac biopsies revealed increased oxidative stress associated with increased fibrosis and apoptosis. Moreover, gene set enrichment analysis showed enrichment of pathways associated with impaired DNA repair and apoptosis, and identified TP53 as one of the top active upstream transcription regulators. In support of the observed cardiac phenotype in mutant mice, several genetic variants in the ERCC1 and XPG gene in human GWAS data were found to be associated with cardiac remodelling and dysfunction. In conclusion, unrepaired spontaneous DNA damage in differentiated cardiomyocytes drives early onset of cardiac failure. These observations implicate DNA damage as a potential novel therapeutic target and highlight systemic and cardiomyocyte-restricted DNA repair-deficient mouse mutants as bona fide models of heart failure.

Younger facial looks are associate with a lower likelihood of several age-related morbidities in the middle-aged to elderly.

BACKGROUND: Looking older for one's chronological age is associated with a higher mortality rate. Yet it remains unclear how perceived facial age relates to morbidity and the degree to which facial ageing reflects systemic ageing of the human body. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between ΔPA and age-related morbidities of different organ systems, where ΔPA represents the difference between perceived age (PA) and chronological age. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis on data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. High-resolution facial photographs of 2679 men and women aged 51.5-87.8 years of European descent were used to assess PA. PA was estimated and scored in 5-year categories using these photographs by a panel of men and women who were blinded for chronological age and medical history. A linear mixed model was used to generate the mean PAs. The difference between the mean PA and chronological age was calculated (ΔPA), where a higher (positive) ΔPA means that the person looks younger for their age and a lower (negative) ΔPA that the person looks older. ΔPA was tested as a continuous variable for association with ageing-related morbidities including cardiovascular, pulmonary, ophthalmological, neurocognitive, renal, skeletal and auditory morbidities in separate regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex (model 1) and additionally for body mass index, smoking and sun exposure (model 2). RESULTS: We observed 5-year higher ΔPA (i.e. looking younger by 5 years for one's age) to be associated with less osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62-0.93], less chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.95), less age-related hearing loss (model 2; B = -0.76, 95% CI -1.35 to -0.17) and fewer cataracts (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.97), but with better global cognitive functioning (g-factor; model 2; B = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04-0.10). CONCLUSIONS: PA is associated with multiple morbidities and better cognitive function, suggesting that systemic ageing and cognitive ageing are, to an extent, externally visible in the human face.

Epicardial Fat Volume, Cardiac Function, and Incident Heart Failure: The Rotterdam Study.

Background Larger epicardial fat volume (EFV) has been associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease and atrial fibrillation. Yet, evidence on the association of EFV with cardiac function and incident heart failure (HF) remains scarce. Methods and Results We included 2103 participants (mean age, 68 years; 54.4% women) from the prospective population-based RS (Rotterdam Study) with computed tomography-based EFV and repeated echocardiography-based assessment of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function. Linear mixed effects and Cox-proportional hazard regression models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to assess the associations of EFV with repeated measurements of echocardiographic parameters and with incident HF. During a median follow-up of 9.7 years, 124 HF events occurred (incidence rate, 6.37 per 1000 person-years). For LV systolic function, 1-SD larger EFV was associated with 0.76 (95% CI, 0.54-0.98) mm larger LV end-diastolic dimension, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.47-0.85) mm larger LV end-systolic dimension, and 0.56% (95% CI, -0.86% to -0.27%) lower LV ejection fraction. Interactions between EFV and time were small. For LV diastolic function, 1-SD larger EFV was associated with 1.02 (95% CI, 0.78-1.27) mm larger left atrial diameter. Larger EFV was also associated with incident HF (hazard ratio per 1-SD increase in EFV, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.07-1.68] per 1-SD larger EFV). Conclusions We report an independent association between EFV with new-onset HF in the general population. EFV seems to exert its influence on HF through different pathways contributing to deteriorations in systolic function and larger left atrial size in part, likely through mechanical restraint and hypertrophy.

Advanced glycation end-products, cardiac function and heart failure in the general population: The Rotterdam Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to assess the association of advanced glycation end-products (AGEs), measured by skin autofluorescence (SAF), with prevalent heart failure, and with systolic and diastolic cardiac function, in a large population-based cohort study. METHODS: We assessed the cross-sectional association between SAF and prevalent heart failure among 2426 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study, using logistic regression. Next, among individuals free of heart failure (N=2362), we examined the link between SAF (on a continuous scale) and echocardiographic parameters of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function using linear regressions. Analyses were adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: Higher levels of SAF were associated with higher odds of prevalent heart failure (multivariable adjusted OR 2.90 [95% CI 1.80, 4.62] for one unit higher SAF value). Among individuals without heart failure, one unit increase in SAF was associated with 0.98% lower LV ejection fraction (mean difference [ß] -0.98% [95% CI -1.45%, -0.50%]). The association was stronger among participants with diabetes (ß -1.84% [95% CI -3.10%, -0.58%] and ß -0.78% [95% CI -1.29%, -0.27%] among participants with and without diabetes, respectively). Associations of SAF with diastolic function parameters were not apparent, except in men with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: AGE accumulation was independently associated with prevalent heart failure. Among individuals free of heart failure, AGEs were associated with cardiac function, in particular systolic function. This association was present in participants with and without diabetes and was more prominent in those with diabetes.

Heart rate variability and atrial fibrillation in the general population: a longitudinal and Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Sex differences and causality of the association between heart rate variability (HRV) and atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population remain unclear. METHODS: 12,334 participants free of AF from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Measures of HRV including the standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), SDNN corrected for heart rate (SDNNc), RR interval differences (RMSSD), RMSSD corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc), and heart rate were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. Joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the association between longitudinal measures of HRV with new-onset AF. Genetic variants for HRV were used as instrumental variables in a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary-level data. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 1302 incident AF cases occurred among 12,334 participants (mean age 64.8 years, 58.3% women). In joint models, higher SDNN (fully-adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24, 1.04-1.47, p = 0.0213), and higher RMSSD (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI 1.33, 1.13-1.54, p = 0.0010) were significantly associated with new-onset AF. Sex-stratified analyses showed that the associations were mostly prominent among women. In MR analyses, a genetically determined increase in SDNN (odds ratio (OR), 95% CI 1.60, 1.27-2.02, p = 8.36 × 10-05), and RMSSD (OR, 95% CI 1.56, 1.31-1.86, p = 6.32 × 10-07) were significantly associated with an increased odds of AF. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal measures of uncorrected HRV were significantly associated with new-onset AF, especially among women. MR analyses supported the causal relationship between uncorrected measures of HRV with AF. Our findings indicate that measures to modulate HRV might prevent AF in the general population, in particular in women. AF; atrial fibrillation, GWAS; genome-wide association study, IVW; inverse variance weighted, MR; Mendelian randomization, MR-PRESSO; MR-egger and mendelian randomization pleiotropy residual sum and outlier, RMSSD; root mean square of successive RR interval differences, RMSSDc; root mean square of successive RR interval differences corrected for heart rate, SDNN; standard deviation of normal to normal RR intervals, SDNNc; standard deviation of normal to normal RR intervals corrected for heart rate, WME; weighted median estimator. aRotterdam Study n=12,334 bHRV GWAS n=53,174 cAF GWAS n=1,030,836.

Longitudinal Anthropometric Measures and Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Among Community-Dwelling Men and Women.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the sex-specific evolution of various anthropometric measures and the association of their longitudinal trajectories with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: Among 5266 men and 7218 women free of AF at baseline from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, each anthropometric measure was measured 1 to 5 times from 1989 to 2014. Anthropometric measures were standardized to obtain hazard ratios per 1 SD increase to enable comparison. Joint models were used to assess the longitudinal association between anthropometric measures and incident AF. Use of the joint models is a preferred method for simultaneous analyses of repeated measurements and survival data for conferring less biased estimates. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 63.9 (8.9) years for men and 64.9 (9.8) years for women. Median follow-up time was 10.5 years. Longitudinal evolution of weight, height, waist circumference, hip circumference, and body mass index was associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF in both men and women. In joint models, larger height in men (hazard ratio [95% credible interval] per 1 SD, 1.27 [1.17 to 1.38]) and weight in women (1.24 [1.16 to 1.34]) showed the largest associations with AF. In joint models, waist to hip ratio was significantly associated with incident AF only in women (1.10 [1.03 to 1.18]). CONCLUSION: Considering the entire longitudinal trajectories in joint models, anthropometric measures were positively associated with an increased risk for new-onset AF among men and women in the general population. Increase in measure of central obesity showed a stronger association with increased risk of AF onset among women compared with men.

Sex-specific added value of cardiac biomarkers for 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction.

AIMS: To evaluate the sex-specific predictive value of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and creatine kinase myocardial band (CK-MB) for 10-year risk prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF) and composite outcomes. METHODS: Five-thousand four-hundred thirty individuals (mean age 68.6 years, 59.9% women) from the Rotterdam Study, with biomarker measurements between 1997 and 2001, were included. Participants were followed until 2015. We fitted 'basic' models using traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Improvements in c-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI) for events and non-events were calculated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 14 years, 747 (13.8%), 563 (10.4%), and 664 (12.2%) participants were diagnosed with CHD, stroke, and HF, respectively. NT-proBNP improved the discriminative performance of the 'basic' model for all endpoints (c-statistic improvements ranging from 0.007 to 0.050) and provided significant event-NRI for HF (14.3% in women; 10.7% in men) and for stroke in men (9.3%). The addition of hs-cTnT increased c-statistic for CHD in women by 0.029 (95% CI, 0.011-0.047) and for HF in men by 0.034 (95% CI, 0.014-0.053), and provided significant event-NRI for CHD (10.3%) and HF (7.8%) in women, and for stroke (8.4%) in men. The added predictive value of CK-MB was limited. CONCLUSION: NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT provided added predictive value for various cardiovascular outcomes above traditional risk factors. Sex differences were observed in the predictive performance of these biomarkers.

Heart rate variability is associated with left ventricular systolic, diastolic function and incident heart failure in the general population.

BACKGROUND: HRV has mostly shown associations with systolic dysfunction and more recently, with diastolic dysfunction in Heart failure (HF) patients. But the role of sympathetic nervous system in changes of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and new-onset HF has not been extensively studied. METHODS: Among 3157 men and 4405 women free of HF and atrial fibrillation retrospectively included from the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used linear mixed models to examine associations of RR-interval differences and standard deviation of RR-intervals corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc and SDNNc) with longitudinal changes of LV ejection fraction (LVEF), E/A ratio, left atrial (LA) diameter, E/e' ratio. Afterwards, using cox regressions, we examined their association with new-onset HF. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 65 (9.95) in men and 65.7 (10.2) in women. Every unit increase in log RMSSDc was accompanied by 0.75% (95%CI:-1.11%;-0.39%) and 0.31% (- 0.60%;-0.01%) lower LVEF among men and women each year, respectively. Higher log RMSSDc was linked to 0.03 (- 0.04;-0.01) and 0.02 (- 0.03;-0.003) lower E/A and also - 1.76 (- 2.77;- 0.75) and - 1.18 (- 1.99;-0.38) lower LVM index in both sexes and 0.72 mm (95% CI: - 1.20;-0.25) smaller LA diameters in women. The associations with LVEF in women diminished after excluding HF cases during the first 3 years of follow-up. During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident HF were 1.34 (1.08;1.65) for log RMSSDc in men and 1.15 (0.93;1.42) in women. SDNNc showed similar associations. CONCLUSIONS: Indices of HRV were associated with worse systolic function in men but mainly with improvement in LA size in women. Higher HRV was associated with higher risk of new-onset HF in men. Our findings highlight potential sex differences in autonomic function underlying cardiac dysfunction and heart failure in the general population.

Prevalence of microvascular angina among patients with stable symptoms in the absence of obstructive coronary artery disease: a systematic review.

Our purpose was to perform a systematic review to assess the prevalence of microvascular angina (MVA) among patients with stable symptoms in the absence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). We performed a systematic review of the literature to group the prevalence of MVA, based on diagnostic pathways and modalities. We defined MVA using three definitions: (i) suspected MVA using non-invasive ischaemia tests; proportion of patients with non-obstructive CAD among patients with symptoms and a positive non-invasive ischaemia test result, (ii) suspected MVA using specific modalities for MVA; proportion of patients with evidence of impaired microvascular function among patients with symptoms and non-obstructive CAD, and (iii) definitive MVA; proportion of patients with positive ischaemia test results among patients with an objectified impaired microvascular dysfunction. We further examined the ratio of women-to-men for the different groups. Of the 4547 abstracts, 20 studies reported data on MVA prevalence. The median prevalence was 43% for suspected MVA using non-invasive ischaemia test, 28% for suspected MVA using specific modalities for MVA, and 30% for definitive MVA. Overall, more women were included in the studies reporting sex-specific data. The women-to-men ratio for included participants was 1.29. However, the average women-to-men ratio for the MVA cases was 2.50. In patients with stable symptoms of ischaemia in the absence of CAD, the prevalences of suspected and definitive MVA are substantial. The results of this study should warrant cardiologists to support, promote and facilitate the comprehensive evaluation of the coronary microcirculation for all patients with symptoms and non-obstructive CAD.

Arterial calcification at different sites and prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease among women and men.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The sex-specific contributions of arterial calcification to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk prediction and stratification in the light of recent modifications by cardiovascular prevention guidelines remain unclear. We assessed the sex-specific value of calcification in different arteries, beyond the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) risk factors, for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction. METHODS: From 2003 to 2006, participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study (n = 2167) underwent CT to quantify coronary artery calcification (CAC), aortic arch calcification (AAC), extracranial (ECAC) and intracranial carotid artery calcification (ICAC). Follow-up for ASCVD was complete on January 1, 2015. We refitted the PCE (base model), and categorized participants into low (<5%), borderline (5%-7.5%), intermediate (7.5%-20%), and high (≥20%) ASCVD risk. We extended the models with calcifications and calculated c-statistics and net reclassification improvements for events (NRIe) and non-events (NRIne). RESULTS: CAC predicted ASCVD in women [hazard-ratio (95%-CI) per 1-SD: 1.40 (1.14-1.73)] and men [1.62 (1.27-1.93)]. After addition of CAC to the base model, the c-statistic improved from 0.71 to 0.72 in women; from 0.65 to 0.68 in men. Addition of CAC led to NRIe of 14.3% in women, 4.8% in men and NRIne of 1.5% in women, 15.1% in men. Only in women, ICAC predicted ASCVD [hazard-ratio (95%-CI) per 1-SD: 1.62 (1.26-2.08)], and improved the model (c-statistic from 0.71 to 0.73, NRIe: 9.8% and NRIne: 5.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of CAC improves ASCVD risk prediction and stratification. In women, the added value of ICAC for ASCVD risk prediction is comparable to that of CAC.

Sex-specific normal values and determinants of infrarenal abdominal aortic diameter among non-aneurysmal elderly population.

To establish age- and sex-specific distribution of the infrarenal abdominal aortic diameters (IAD) among non-aneurysmal elderly population and to investigate the associations between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and IAD in men and women. We included 4032 participants (mean age 67.2 years; 60.4% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study, free of cardiovascular disease, who underwent IAD ultrasound assessment between 2009-2014. Linear regression analysis was used to identify determinants of IAD. The medians (inter-quartile range) of absolute IAD and body surface area (BSA)-adjusted IAD were 17.0 (15.0-18.0) mm and 9.3 (8.5-10.2) mm for women and 19.0 (18.0-21.0) mm and 9.4 (8.6-10.3) mm for men, respectively. There was a non-linear relationship between age and IAD. IAD increased steeply with advancing age and up to 70 years. After around 75 years of age, the diameter values reached a plateau. Waist circumference and diastolic blood pressure were associated with larger diameters in both sexes. Body mass index [Effect estimate (95% CI): 0.04 (0.00 to 0.08)], systolic blood pressure [- 0.01(- 0.02 to 0.00)], current smoking [0.35 (0.06 to 0.65)], total cholesterol levels [- 0.21 (- 0.31 to - 0.11)], and lipid-lowering medication [- 0.43 (- 0.67 to - 0.19)] were significantly associated with IAD in women. Sex differences in IAD values diminished after taking BSA into account. The increase in diameters was attenuated after 70 years. Differences were observed in the associations of several cardiovascular risk factors with IAD among men and women.

Preventive implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in contemporary clinical practice: need for more stringent selection criteria.

While the efficacy of the intracardiac defibrillators (ICDs) for primary prevention is not disputed, the relevant studies were carried out a long time ago. Most pertinent trials, including MADIT-II, SCD-Heft, and DEFINITE, recruited patients more than 20 years ago. Since then, improved therapeutic modalities including, in addition to cardiac resynchronization therapy, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors, and, most recently, inhibitors of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2, have lowered present-day rates of mortality and of sudden cardiac death. Thus, nowadays, ICD therapy may be less effective than previously reported, and not as beneficial as many people currently believe. However, criteria for ICD implantation remain very inclusive. The patient must (only) be symptomatic and have ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 35%. The choice of EF 35% is notable because the average EF in all large trials was much lower, and clinical benefit was mainly limited to EF ≤ 30%. This EF cut-off value defines a substantial portion of potential ICD recipients. It seems therefore reasonable to limit ICD eligibility criteria in the EF range 30-35% to patients at highest risk only. We discuss and present some rational criteria to assist the clinician in improving risk stratification for preventive ICD implantation.

Atherosclerotic Carotid Plaque Composition and Incident Stroke and Coronary Events.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests that atherosclerotic plaque composition rather than plaque size is linked to ischemic cardiovascular events, yet largescale population-based data in asymptomatic individuals remain scarce. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate carotid plaque composition in relation to incident stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) in a population-based setting. METHODS: Between 2007 and 2012, 1,349 persons (mean age 72 years, 49.5% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study who were free from a history of stroke or CHD, in whom carotid ultrasonography showed subclinical atherosclerosis, and who underwent high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging of the carotid arteries to assess plaque characteristics. These included the presence of specific plaque components (intraplaque hemorrhage [IPH], lipid-rich necrotic core, and calcification), and measures of plaque size (maximum plaque thickness and presence of stenosis of more than 30%). Individuals were continuously followed for the occurrence of stroke or CHD until January 1, 2015. The authors used Cox regression models to assess the association of the plaque characteristics with the incidence of stroke and CHD, with adjustments for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: During a median of 5.1 years' follow-up for stroke and 4.8 years for CHD, 51 individuals had a stroke and 83 developed CHD. Independent of maximum plaque thickness and cardiovascular risk factors, the presence of IPH was associated with incident stroke and CHD (fully adjusted hazard ratio: 2.42 [95% confidence interval: 1.30 to 4.50], and 1.95 [95% confidence interval: 1.20 to 3.14]). Presence of a lipid-rich necrotic core and calcification were not associated with stroke or CHD. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of IPH in the carotid atherosclerotic plaque is an independent risk factor for stroke and CHD. These findings indicate the promise of IPH as a marker of plaque vulnerability in healthy persons with subclinical atherosclerosis.

Implications of the ACC/AHA risk score for prediction of heart failure: the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing burden of heart failure (HF), there have been no recommendations for use of any of the primary prevention models in the existing guidelines. HF was also not included as an outcome in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk score. METHODS: Among 2743 men and 3646 women aged ≥ 55 years, free of HF, from the population-based Rotterdam Study cohort, 4 Cox models were fitted using the predictors of the ACC/AHA, ARIC and Health-ABC risk scores. Performance of the models for 10-year HF prediction was evaluated. Afterwards, performance and net reclassification improvement (NRI) for adding NT-proBNP to the ACC/AHA model were assessed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13 years, 429 men and 489 women developed HF. The ARIC model had the highest performance [c-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]): 0.80 (0.78; 0.83) and 0.80 (0.78; 0.83) in men and women, respectively]. The c-statistic for the ACC/AHA model was 0.76 (0.74; 0.78) in men and 0.77 (0.75; 0.80) in women. Adding NT-proBNP to the ACC/AHA model increased the c-statistic to 0.80 (0.78 to 0.83) in men and 0.81 (0.79 to 0.84) in women. Sensitivity and specificity of the ACC/AHA model did not drastically change after addition of NT-proBNP. NRI(95%CI) was - 23.8% (- 19.2%; - 28.4%) in men and - 27.6% (- 30.7%; - 24.5%) in women for events and 57.9% (54.8%; 61.0%) in men and 52.8% (50.3%; 55.5%) in women for non-events. CONCLUSIONS: Acceptable performance of the model based on risk factors included in the ACC/AHA model advocates use of this model for prediction of HF risk in primary prevention setting. Addition of NT-proBNP modestly improved the model performance but did not lead to relevant discrimination improvement in clinical risk reclassification.

Long-term effects of adjuvant treatment for breast cancer on carotid plaques and brain perfusion.

PURPOSE: Breast cancer treatment has been associated with vascular pathology. It is unclear if such treatment is also associated with long-term cerebrovascular changes. We studied the association between radiotherapy and chemotherapy with carotid pathology and brain perfusion in breast cancer survivors. METHODS: We included 173 breast cancer survivors exposed to radiotherapy and chemotherapy, assessed ± 21.2 years after cancer diagnosis, and 346 age-matched cancer-free women (1:2) selected from the population-based Rotterdam Study. Outcome measures were carotid plaque score, intima-media thickness (IMT), total cerebral blood flow (tCBF), and brain perfusion. Additionally, we investigated the association between inclusion of the carotid artery in the radiation field (no/small/large part), tumor location, and these outcome measures within cancer survivors. RESULTS: Cancer survivors had lower tCBF (- 19.6 ml/min, 95%CI - 37.3;- 1.9) and brain perfusion (- 2.5 ml/min per 100 ml, 95%CI - 4.3;- 0.7) than cancer-free women. No statistically significant group differences were observed regarding plaque score or IMT. Among cancer survivors, a large versus a small part of the carotid artery in the radiation field was associated with a higher IMT (0.05, 95%CI0.01;0.09). Also, survivors with a right-sided tumor had lower left carotid plaque score (- 0.31, 95%CI - 0.60;- 0.02) and higher brain perfusion (3.5 ml/min per 100 ml, 95%CI 0.7;6.2) than those with a left-sided tumor. CONCLUSIONS: On average two decades post-diagnosis, breast cancer survivors had lower tCBF and brain perfusion than cancer-free women. Also, survivors with a larger area of the carotid artery within the radiation field had a larger IMT. Future studies should confirm if these cerebrovascular changes underlie the frequently observed cognitive problems in cancer survivors.

Carotid Atherosclerosis Is Associated With Poorer Hearing in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular disease may be linked to hearing loss through narrowing of the nutrient arteries of the cochlea, but large-scale population-based evidence for this association remains scarce. We investigated the association of carotid atherosclerosis as a marker of generalized cardiovascular disease with hearing loss in a population-based cohort. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: A population-based cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: 3724 participants [mean age: 65.5 years, standard deviation (SD): 7.5, 55.4% female]. METHODS: Ultrasound and pure-tone audiograms to assess carotid atherosclerosis and hearing loss. RESULTS: We investigated associations of carotid plaque burden and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) (overall and side-specific carotid atherosclerosis) with hearing loss (in the best hearing ear and side-specific hearing loss) using multivariable linear and ordinal regression models. We found that higher maximum IMT was related to poorer hearing in the best hearing ear [difference in decibel hearing level per 1-mm increase in IMT: 2.09 dB, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08, 4.10]. Additionally, third and fourth quartile plaque burden as compared to first quartile was related to poorer hearing in the best hearing ear (difference: 1.06 dB, 95% CI: 0.04, 2.08; and difference: 1.55 dB, 95% CI: 0.49, 2.60, respectively). Larger IMT (difference: 2.97 dB, 95% CI: 0.79, 5.14), third quartile plaque burden compared to first quartile (difference: 1.24 dB, 95% CI: 0.14, 2.35), and fourth plaque quartile compared to first quartile (difference: 2.12 dB, 95% CI: 0.98, 3.26) in the right carotid were associated with poorer hearing in the right ear. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Carotid atherosclerosis is associated with poorer hearing in older adults, almost exclusively with poorer hearing in the right ear. Based on our results, it seems that current therapies for the prevention of cardiovascular disease may also prove beneficial for hearing loss in older adults by promoting and maintaining inner ear health.

Lifetime risk and multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases and disease-free life expectancy in the general population: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%-95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%-93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3-11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2-6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.