Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.

To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

Wastewater Surveillance Can Function as an Early Warning System for COVID-19 in Low-Incidence Settings.

INTRODUCTION: During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia implemented a series of international and interstate border restrictions. The state of Queensland experienced limited COVID-19 transmission and relied on lockdowns to stem any emerging COVID-19 outbreaks. However, early detection of new outbreaks was difficult. In this paper, we describe the wastewater surveillance program for SARS-CoV-2 in Queensland, Australia, and report two case studies in which we aimed to assess the potential for this program to provide early warning of new community transmission of COVID-19. Both case studies involved clusters of localised transmission, one originating in a Brisbane suburb (Brisbane Inner West) in July-August 2021, and the other originating in Cairns, North Queensland in February-March 2021. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Publicly available COVID-19 case data derived from the notifiable conditions (NoCs) registry from the Queensland Health data portal were cleaned and merged spatially with the wastewater surveillance data using statistical area 2 (SA2) codes. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of wastewater detection for predicting the presence of COVID-19 reported cases were calculated for the two case study sites. RESULTS: Early warnings for local transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through wastewater surveillance were noted in both the Brisbane Inner West cluster and the Cairns cluster. The positive predictive value of wastewater detection for the presence of notified cases of COVID-19 in Brisbane Inner West and Cairns were 71.4% and 50%, respectively. The negative predictive value for Brisbane Inner West and Cairns were 94.7% and 100%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the utility of wastewater surveillance as an early warning tool in low COVID-19 transmission settings.

Impact of a 5-Year Mass Drug Administration Programme for Soil-Transmitted Helminthiases on the Spatial Distribution of Childhood Anaemia in Burundi from 2007 to 2011.

Background: Childhood anaemia affects 1.8 billion people globally. Little is known about the long-term impact of mass drug administration (MDA) for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) on the spatiotemporal variation of anaemia prevalence and severity. We describe the long-term spatiotemporal impact of a 5-year STH MDA programme (2007−2011) on the prevalence of anaemia and anaemia severity in school-aged children (SAC) in Burundi. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used annual haemoglobin concentration and STH data collected during 2007−2011 in 31 schools in Burundi. Spatial dependence in prevalence and severity of anaemia was assessed using semivariograms. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to (a) quantify the role of STH (adjusted for other anaemia determinants) in the spatiotemporal distribution of anaemia prevalence/severity, and (b) predict the geographical variation of both outcomes across Burundi. Adjusted population data were used to estimate the geographical distribution of the number of SAC at risk of anaemia and with low and moderate/severe anaemia. Infections with Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were positively and significantly associated with childhood anaemia; hookworm infections were not. A significant decrease in anaemia prevalence, from 40−50% (2008) to 10−20% (2011) was predicted in western areas. The predicted prevalence of low-severity anaemia decreased from 40−50% (2008) to <20% (2011) in southern and eastern areas. Moderate/high-severity anaemia was concentrated in western regions of Burundi, with pockets of moderate/high-severity anaemia in central and northern regions in 2008. The overall number of predicted anaemic children decreased from 443,657 (2008) to 232,304 (2011), with a resurgence after MDA disruption in 2010 (to 480,605). Prevalence of low- and moderate-severity anaemia was higher in boys than in girls. Conclusions/Significance: Despite ongoing MDA, the prevalence of anaemia in SAC remained high and increased in certain parts of the country. It is recommended that MDA programmes targeting STH are complemented with specific anaemia interventions.

Association between higher ambient temperature and orthopaedic infection rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Many infectious diseases display seasonal variation corresponding with particular conditions. In orthopaedics a growing body of evidence has identified surges in post-operative infection rates during higher temperature periods. The aim of this research was to collate and synthesize the current literature on this topic. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using five databases (PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science and Central (Cochrane)). Study quality was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation method. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated from monthly infection rates and a pooled OR was generated using the DerSimonian and Lairds method. A protocol for this review was registered with the National Institute for Health Research International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42017081871). RESULTS: Eighteen studies analysing over 19 000 cases of orthopaedic related infection met inclusion criteria. Data on 6620 cases and 9035 controls from 12 studies were included for meta-analysis. The pooled OR indicated an overall increased odds of post-operative infection for patients undergoing orthopaedic procedures during warmer periods of the year (pooled OR 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.30). CONCLUSION: A small but significantly increased odds of post-operative infection may exist for orthopaedic patients who undergo procedures during higher temperature periods. It is hypothesized that this effect is geographically dependent and confounded by meteorological factors, local cultural variables and hospital staffing cycles.

Spatiotemporal distribution and population at risk of soil-transmitted helminth infections following an eight-year school-based deworming programme in Burundi, 2007-2014.

BACKGROUND: Investigating the effect of successive annual deworming rounds on the spatiotemporal distribution of infection prevalence and numbers at risk for soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) can help identify communities nearing elimination and those needing further interventions. In this study, we aim to quantify the impact of an 8-year mass drug administration (MDA) programme (from 2007 to 2014) on the spatiotemporal distribution of prevalence of STH infections and to estimate the number of school-aged children infected with STHs in Burundi. METHODS: During annual longitudinal school-based surveys in Burundi between 2007 and 2011, STH infection and anthropometric data for a total of 40,656 children were collected; these data were supplemented with data from a national survey conducted in 2014. Bayesian model based geostatistics (MBG) were used to generate predictive prevalence maps for each STH species and year. The numbers of children at-risk of infection per district between 2008 and 2014 were estimated as the product of the predictive prevalence maps and population density maps. RESULTS: Overall, the degree of spatial clustering of STH infections decreased between 2008 and 2011; in 2014 the geographical clusters of all STH infections reappeared. The reduction in prevalence was small for Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura in the centre and central north of the country. Our predictive prevalence maps for hookworm indicate a reduction in prevalence along the periphery of the country. The predicted number of children infected with any STH species decreased substantially between 2007 and 2011, but in 2014 there was an increase in the predicted number of children infected with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura. In 2014, the districts with the highest predicted number of children infected with A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworms were Kibuye district (n = 128,903), Mabayi district (n = 35,302) and Kiremba (n = 87,511), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While the MDA programme in Burundi resulted in a reduction in STH prevalence, this reduction was spatiotemporally heterogeneous, with some pockets of high prevalence remaining, suggesting that treatment coverage and complementary interventions should be evaluated to improve impact.

The impact of an 8-year mass drug administration programme on prevalence, intensity and co-infections of soil-transmitted helminthiases in Burundi.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are amongst the most prevalent infections in the world. Mass drug administration (MDA) programmes have become the most commonly used national interventions for endemic countries to achieve elimination. This paper aims to describe the effect of an 8-year MDA programme on the prevalence, intensity of infection and co-infection of STH in Burundi from 2007 to 2014 and critically appraise the trajectory towards STH elimination in the country. RESULTS: Annual STH parasitological surveys (specifically, a "pilot study" from 2007 to 2011, an "extension study" from 2008 to 2011, and a "national reassessment" in 2014; n = 27,658 children), showed a significant drop in prevalence of infection with any STH ("pooled STH") between baseline and 2011 in both studies, falling from 32 to 16 % in the pilot study, and from 35 to 16 % in the extension study. Most STH infections were of low intensity according to WHO classification. The national reassessment in 2014 showed that prevalence of pooled STH remained significantly below the prevalence in 2007 in both studies but there was no further decrease in STH prevalence from 2011 levels during this time. Spatial dependence analysis showed that prevalence of Trichuris trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides had a tendency to cluster over the years, whilst only trends in spatial dependence were evident for hookworm infections. Spatial dependence fluctuated over the course of the programme for Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura. However, spatial trends in spatial dependence were evident in 2010 for Ascaris lumbricoides. Analysis of spatial clustering of intensity of infection and heavy infections revealed that the intensity changed over time for all parasites. Heavy intensity was only evident in Ascaris lumbricoides for 2008 and did not appear in proceeding years and other parasites. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that sustained annual MDA significantly reduced the prevalence of STH infection in school-age children but was unable to achieve elimination. Additionally, significant decline in prevalence was accompanied by a drop in spatial clustering of infection indicators across all sites from 2008. The lack of consistency in the results of the spatial dependence analysis highlights that MDA programmes can interrupt the normal transmission dynamics of STH parasites.