A deep learning algorithm to predict risk of pancreatic cancer from disease trajectories.

Pancreatic cancer is an aggressive disease that typically presents late with poor outcomes, indicating a pronounced need for early detection. In this study, we applied artificial intelligence methods to clinical data from 6 million patients (24,000 pancreatic cancer cases) in Denmark (Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR)) and from 3 million patients (3,900 cases) in the United States (US Veterans Affairs (US-VA)). We trained machine learning models on the sequence of disease codes in clinical histories and tested prediction of cancer occurrence within incremental time windows (CancerRiskNet). For cancer occurrence within 36 months, the performance of the best DNPR model has area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve = 0.88 and decreases to AUROC (3m) = 0.83 when disease events within 3 months before cancer diagnosis are excluded from training, with an estimated relative risk of 59 for 1,000 highest-risk patients older than age 50 years. Cross-application of the Danish model to US-VA data had lower performance (AUROC = 0.71), and retraining was needed to improve performance (AUROC = 0.78, AUROC (3m) = 0.76). These results improve the ability to design realistic surveillance programs for patients at elevated risk, potentially benefiting lifespan and quality of life by early detection of this aggressive cancer.

The Veterans Precision Oncology Data Commons: Transforming VA data into a national resource for research in precision oncology.

The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has a strong track record providing high-quality, evidence-based care to cancer patients. In order to accelerate discoveries that will further improve care for Veterans with cancer, the VA has partnered with the Center for Translational Data Science at the University of Chicago and the Open Commons Consortium to establish a data sharing platform, the Veterans Precision Oncology Data Commons (VPODC). The VPODC makes clinical, genomic, and imaging data from the VA available to the research community at large. In this paper, we detail our motivation for data sharing, describe the VPODC, and outline our collaboration model. By transforming VA data into a national resource for research in precision oncology, the VPODC seeks to foster innovation through collaboration and resource sharing that will ultimately lead to improved care for Veterans with cancer.