Design thinking during a health emergency: building a national data collection and reporting system.

BACKGROUND: Design thinking allows challenging problems to be redefined in order to identify alternative user-center strategies and solutions. To address the many challenges associated with collecting and reporting data during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, we used a design thinking approach to build the Global Ebola Laboratory Data collection and reporting system. MAIN TEXT: We used the five-stage Design Thinking model proposed by Hasso-Plattner Institute of Design at Stanford in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. This approach offers a flexible model which focuses on empathizing, defining, ideating, prototyping, and testing. A strong focus of the methodology includes end-users' feedback from the beginning to the end of the process. This is an iterative methodology that continues to adapt according to the needs of the system. The stages do not need to be sequential and can be run in parallel, out of order, and repeated as necessary. Design thinking was used to develop a data collection and reporting system, which contains all laboratory data from the three countries during one of the most complicated multi-country outbreaks to date. The data collection and reporting system was used to orient the response interventions at the district, national, and international levels within the three countries including generating situation reports, monitoring the epidemiological and operational situations, providing forecasts of the epidemic, and supporting Ebola-related research and the Ebola National Survivors programs within each country. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates the numerous benefits that arise when using a design thinking methodology during an outbreak to solve acute challenges within the national health information system and the authors recommend it's use during future complex outbreaks.

Systems thinking for health emergencies: use of process mapping during outbreak response.

Process mapping is a systems thinking approach used to understand, analyse and optimise processes within complex systems. We aim to demonstrate how this methodology can be applied during disease outbreaks to strengthen response and health systems. Process mapping exercises were conducted during three unique emerging disease outbreak contexts with different: mode of transmission, size, and health system infrastructure. System functioning improved considerably in each country. In Sierra Leone, laboratory testing was accelerated from 6 days to within 24 hours. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, time to suspected case notification reduced from 7 to 3 days. In Nigeria, key data reached the national level in 48 hours instead of 5 days. Our research shows that despite the chaos and complexities associated with emerging pathogen outbreaks, the implementation of a process mapping exercise can address immediate response priorities while simultaneously strengthening components of a health system.

Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications). CONCLUSIONS: Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.

Global polio eradication initiative: lessons learned and legacy.

The world is on the verge of achieving global polio eradication. During >25 years of operations, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has mobilized and trained millions of volunteers, social mobilizers, and health workers; accessed households untouched by other health initiatives; mapped and brought health interventions to chronically neglected and underserved communities; and established a standardized, real-time global surveillance and response capacity. It is important to document the lessons learned from polio eradication, especially because it is one of the largest ever global health initiatives. The health community has an obligation to ensure that these lessons and the knowledge generated are shared and contribute to real, sustained changes in our approach to global health. We have summarized what we believe are 10 leading lessons learned from the polio eradication initiative. We have the opportunity and obligation to build a better future by applying the lessons learned from GPEI and its infrastructure and unique functions to other global health priorities and initiatives. In so doing, we can extend the global public good gained by ending for all time one of the world's most devastating diseases by also ensuring that these investments provide public health dividends and benefits for years to come.

Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections.

BACKGROUND: On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." METHODS: By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa--Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. RESULTS: The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.

The global polio eradication initiative: lessons learned and prospects for success.

Following the rapid progress towards interrupting indigenous wild poliovirus transmission in the Americas in the early 1980s, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was launched with a resolution of the World Health Assembly (WHA) in 1988. The GPEI built on many lessons learned from smallpox eradication, including the large-scale deployment of technical assistance, implementing agendas of innovation and research and the use of professionally planned and guided advocacy. By the year 2000, the incidence of polio globally had decreased by 99% compared with the estimated >350,000 cases reported from 125 endemic countries in 1988. By 2002, three WHO Regions (the Americas, Western Pacific and European Regions) had been certified polio-free. By 2005, transmission of indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) had been interrupted in all but 4 'endemic' countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where eradication efforts effectively stalled. WPV exported from northern Nigeria and northern India subsequently caused >50 outbreaks and paralysed >1500 children in previously polio-free countries across Asia and Africa. In each of the four remaining polio-endemic countries different challenges, or a combination of factors, prevented to build up sufficient levels of population immunity to stop transmission. Consequently, specific strategies were increasingly tailored to each setting. A new 2010-2012 GPEI Strategic Plan was developed which brought together several approaches to overcome the remaining hurdles to eradication, including the large-scale use of bivalent oral poliovaccine (bOPV) in supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). By the end of 2010, the impact of the new GPEI Strategic Plan 2010-2012 was apparent. Compared to 2009, the number of new polio cases in 2010 fell by 95% in both northern Nigeria and northern India, the world's largest remaining reservoirs of indigenous WPVs. By mid-2011, India had not reported a polio case for more than 5 months, and in Nigeria, endemic transmission appeared to be restricted to the north-east and north-west corners of the country. While polio cases due to WPV type 3 were still being detected in west and central Africa, the overall level of WPV3 transmission globally was at an all-time low. Uncontrolled WPV transmission appeared to be restricted to Chad and Pakistan, which increasingly represented the greatest risks to the GPEI. Although insufficient financing continued to be a major concern, political support for completing polio eradication in polio-infected countries was stronger than ever by mid-2011. While continued transmission in some areas, particularly in Pakistan and Chad, still had to be controlled as a matter of urgency, there were real opportunities to achieve new landmarks in polio eradication, especially in the key WPV reservoirs of India and Nigeria, setting the stage for polio to soon follow smallpox into the history books.

Impact of targeted programs on health systems: a case study of the polio eradication initiative.

The results of 2 large field studies on the impact of the polio eradication initiative on health systems and 3 supplementary reports were presented at a December 1999 meeting convened by the World Health Organization. All of these studies concluded that positive synergies exist between polio eradication and health systems but that these synergies have not been vigorously exploited. The eradication of polio has probably improved health systems worldwide by broadening distribution of vitamin A supplements, improving cooperation among enterovirus laboratories, and facilitating linkages between health workers and their communities. The results of these studies also show that eliminating polio did not cause a diminution of funding for immunization against other illnesses. Relatively little is known about the opportunity costs of polio eradication. Improved planning in disease eradication initiatives can minimize disruptions in the delivery of other services. Future initiatives should include indicators and baseline data for monitoring effects on health systems development.