Selecting tree species to restore forest under climate change conditions: Complementing species distribution models with field experimentation.

The long-term success of forest restoration programs can be improved using climate-based species distribution models (SDMs) to predict which tree species will tolerate climate change. However, as SDMs cannot estimate if species will recruit at these habitats, determining whether their predictions apply to early life-cycle stages of trees is critical to support such a usage. For this, we propose sowing seeds of the focal tree species under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions in target restoration sites. Thus, using of SDMs to design climate-adaptive forest restoration programs would be supported if the differences in habitat occupancy probabilities of species they predict between the current and future climate concurs with the observed differences in recruitment rates of species when sowed under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions. To test this hypothesis, we calibrated SDMs for Vachellia pennatula and Prosopis laevigata, two pioneer tree species widely recommended to restore human-degraded drylands in Mexico, and transferred them to climate change scenarios. After that, we applied the experimental approach proposed above to validate the predictions of SDMs. These models predicted that V. pennatula will decrease its habitat occupancy probabilities across Mexico, while P. laevigata was predicted to keep out their current habitat occupancy probabilities, or even increase them, in climate change scenarios. The results of the field experiment supported these predictions, as recruitment rates of V. pennatula were lower under simulated climate change than under the current climate, while no differences were found for the recruitment rates of P. laevigata between these environmental conditions. These findings demonstrate that SDMs provide meaningful insights for designing climate-adaptive forest restoration programs but, before applying this methodology, predictions of these models must be validated with field experiments to determine whether the focal tree species will recruit under climate change conditions. Moreover, as the pioneer trees used to test our proposal seem to be differentially sensitive to climate change, this approach also allows establishing what species must be prescribed to restore forests with a view to the future and what species must be avoided in these practices.

Distribution Patterns of Invasive Buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris) in Mexico Estimated with Climate Niche Models under the Current and Future Climate.

In Mexico, buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris) was introduced in the middle of the 20th century. Currently, buffelgrass has become an invasive species and has colonized various ecosystems in the country. In addition to its invasive capacity, climate change is a factor that has to be taken into account when considering how to effectively manage and control this species. The climatic niche models (CNM) and their projections for climate change scenarios allow for estimating the extent of biological invasions. Our study aimed to calibrate a CNM for buffelgrass in Mexico under the current climatic conditions and to project the extent of its biological invasion under climate change scenarios. For that, we used MaxEnt to generate the current CNM and to detect if climate change could cause future changes, we then evaluated the distribution patterns over the periods of 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 for all the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Linear regressions were used to compare the outputs between current and future scenarios. Under the current climate, the CNM estimated that 42.2% of the continental surface of Mexico is highly suitable for buffelgrass. The regression analyses indicated no effects from climate change on the distribution of buffelgrass. Moreover, when the projected period is further in the future, and when the SSPs intensify, the surface of suitable areas for the species increases. These analyses clearly suggest Mexico is facing a biological invasion from buffelgrass, which may represent a threat to native biodiversity.

Recruitment of pioneer trees with physically dormant seeds under climate change: the case of Vachellia pennatula (Fabaceae) in semiarid environments of Mexico.

Most tree species native to arid and semiarid ecosystems produce seeds with physical dormancy, which have impermeable coats that protect them from desiccation and prevent germination when the environmental conditions are unfavorable for seedling establishment. This dormancy mechanism may confer some degree of tolerance to seeds facing warmer and drier conditions, as those expected in several regions of the world because of climate change. Scarification of these seeds (removal of protective coats) is required for stimulating germination and seedling development. However, as scarification exposes seeds to the external environmental conditions, it can promote desiccation and viability loss in the future. To test these hypotheses, we performed field experiments and sowed scarified and unscarified seeds of a pioneer tree native to semiarid ecosystems of Mesoamerica (Vachellia pennatula) under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions. The experiments were conducted at abandoned fields using open-top chambers to increase temperature and rainout shelters to reduce rainfall. We measured microenvironmental conditions within the experimental plots and monitored seedling emergence and survival during a year. Air temperature and rainfall in climate change simulations approached the values expected for the period 2041-2080. Seedling emergence rates under these climatic conditions were lower than under the current climate. Nevertheless, emergence rates in climate change simulations were even lower for scarified than for unscarified seeds, while the converse occurred under the current climate. On the other hand, although survival rates in climate change simulations were lower than under the current climate, no effects of the scarification treatment were found. In this way, our study suggests that climate change will impair the recruitment of pioneer trees in semiarid environments, even if they produce seeds with physical dormancy, but also indicates that these negative effects will be stronger if seeds are scarified.

Modelling and validation of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants on climate change scenarios: An approach from the regeneration niche.

The regeneration niche concept states that plant species only occur in habitats where the environmental conditions allow their recruitment. This study focuses on this concept and proposes a novel approach for modelling and experimentally validating the distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants under the current and future climate. The biological invasion of the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle) in Mexico is used as practical example. The values of eight bioclimatic variables associated to sites in which young, naturally established seedlings and saplings were detected were used to model the current distribution of recruitment habitats. A machine-learning algorithm of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to calibrate the model and its output indicated the distribution of occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees in Mexico under the current climate. This model was projected on climate change scenarios predicted for the middle of this century, which indicated that the cover of suitable recruitment habitats for this invasive species will shrink. To validate these predictions, field experiments were performed at three sites where the model predicted reduced occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees. In these experiments, emergence and survival rates of peppertree seedlings were assessed under the current climate and under simulated climate change conditions. As seedling emergence and survival rates were lower under simulated climate change conditions, the experiments validated the model predictions. These results supported our proposal, which combines modelling and experimental approaches to make accurate and valid predictions about the distribution of suitable recruitment habitats for invasive plants in a warmer and drier world.

Deforestation Impacts on Bat Functional Diversity in Tropical Landscapes.

Functional diversity is the variability in the functional roles carried out by species within ecosystems. Changes in the environment can affect this component of biodiversity and can, in turn, affect different processes, including some ecosystem services. This study aimed to determine the effect of forest loss on species richness, abundance and functional diversity of Neotropical bats. To this end, we identified six landscapes with increasing loss of forest cover in the Huasteca region of the state of Hidalgo, Mexico. We captured bats in each landscape using mist nets, and calculated functional diversity indices (functional richness and functional evenness) along with species richness and abundance. We analyzed these measures in terms of percent forest cover. We captured 906 bats (Phyllostomidae and Mormoopidae), including 10 genera and 12 species. Species richness, abundance and functional richness per night are positively related with forest cover. Generalized linear models show that species richness, abundance and functional richness per night are significantly related with forest cover, while seasonality had an effect on abundance and functional richness. Neither forest cover nor season had a significant effect on functional evenness. All these findings were consistent across three spatial scales (1, 3 and 5 km radius around sampling sites). The decrease in species, abundance and functional richness of bats with forest loss may have implications for the ecological processes they carry out such as seed dispersal, pollination and insect predation, among others.

Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of naturally established individuals because this improves the accuracy of predictions about their distribution ranges.

Changes in body size spectra of benthic caridean shrimps (Decapoda: Caridea) and snails (Gastropoda) as response to seasonal variability

AbstractEcologists have been largely interested in the description and understanding of the power scaling relationships between body size and abundance of organisms. Many studies have focused on estimating the exponents of these functions across taxonomic groups and spatial scales, to draw inferences about the processes underlying this pattern. The exponents of these functions usually approximate -3/4 at geographical scales, but they deviate from this value when smaller spatial extensions are considered. This has led to propose that body size-abundance relationships at small spatial scales may reflect the impact of environmental changes. This study tests this hypothesis by examining body size spectra of benthic shrimps (Decapoda: Caridea) and snails (Gastropoda) in the Tamiahua lagoon, a brackish body water located in the Eastern coast of Mexico. We measured water quality parameters (dissolved oxygen, salinity, pH, water temperature, sediment organic matter and chemical oxygen demand) and sampled benthic macrofauna during three different climatic conditions of the year (cold, dry and rainy season). Given the small size of most individuals in the benthic macrofaunal samples, we used body volume, instead of weight, to estimate their body size. Body size-abundance relationships of both taxonomic groups were described by tabulating data from each season into base-2 logarithmic body size bins. In both taxonomic groups, observed frequencies per body size class in each season were standardized to yield densities (i.e., individuals/m3). Nonlinear regression analyses were separately performed for each taxonomic group at each season to assess whether body size spectra followed power scaling functions. Additionally, for each taxonomic group, multiple regression analyses were used to determine whether these relationships varied among seasons. Our results indicated that, while body size-abundance relationships in both taxonomic groups followed power functions, the parameters defining the shape of these relationships varied among seasons. These variations in the parameters of the body size-abundance relationships seems to be related to changes in the abundance of individuals within the different body size classes, which seems to follow the seasonal changes that occur in the environmental conditions of the lagoon. Thus, we propose that these body size-abundance relationships are influenced by the frequency and intensity of environmental changes affecting this ecosystem. Rev. Biol. Trop. 64 (1): 33-44. Epub 2016 March 01.

ResumenLos ecólogos han estado muy interesados en describir y comprender las relaciones escalares de potencia entre el tamaño corporal y la abundancia de los organismos. Muchos estudios se han centrado en la estimación de los exponentes de estas funciones a través de grupos taxonómicos y escalas espaciales, para sacar conclusiones acerca de los procesos que subyacen a este patrón. Los exponentes de estas funciones generalmente se aproximan -3/4 a escalas geográficas, pero se apartan de este valor cuando se consideran extensiones espaciales más pequeñas. Esto ha llevado a proponer que las relaciones tamaño corporal-abundancia en pequeñas escalas espaciales puede reflejar el impacto de cambios ambientales. Este estudio pone a prueba esta hipótesis mediante el examen de los espectros de tamaño corporal de camarones bentónicos (Decapoda: Caridea) y caracoles (Gastropoda) en la laguna de Tamiahua, un cuerpo de agua salobre situado en la costa oriental de México. Medimos parámetros de calidad del agua (oxígeno disuelto, salinidad, pH, temperatura del agua, materia orgánica en los sedimentos y demanda química de oxígeno) y muestreamos la macrofauna bentónica en tres momentos del año que difieren en sus condiciones climáticas (estaciones fría, seca y de lluvias). Dado el pequeño tamaño de la mayoría de los individuos en las muestras de macrofauna bentónica, se utilizó el volumen del cuerpo, en lugar de peso, para estimar su tamaño corporal. Las relaciones tamaño corporalabundancia de ambos grupos taxonómicos fueron descritas ordenando los datos de cada estación en clases de tamaño corporal cuya amplitud estaba establecida por una escala logarítmica de base 2. En ambos grupos taxonómicos, las frecuencias observadas por clase de tamaño corporal en cada estación se estandarizaron a densidades de captura (es decir, individuos/m3). Análisis de regresión no-lineal se realizaron separadamente para cada grupo taxonómico en cada estación del año para evaluar si los espectros de tamaño corporal seguían funciones escalares de potencia. Además, para cada grupo taxonómico, se utilizaron análisis de regresión múltiple para determinar si estas relaciones variaban entre estaciones. Nuestros resultados indicaron que, mientras las relaciones tamaño corporal-abundancia en ambos grupos taxonómicos siguieron funciones potenciales, los parámetros que definen la forma de estas relaciones variaron entre estaciones. Estas variaciones en los parámetros de las relaciones tamaño corporal-abundancia parecen estar relacionadas con cambios en la abundancia de los individuos dentro de las diferentes clases de tamaño corporal, que parece seguir los cambios estacionales que se producen en las condiciones ambientales de la laguna. Por lo tanto, proponemos que estas relaciones tamaño corporalabundancia se ven influidas por la frecuencia e intensidad de los cambios ambientales que afectan este ecosistema.

Changes in body size spectra of benthic caridean shrimps (Decapoda: Caridea) and snails (Gastropoda) as response to seasonal variability

Ecologists have been largely interested in the description and understanding of the power scaling relationships between body size and abundance of organisms. Many studies have focused on estimating the exponents of these functions across taxonomic groups and spatial scales, to draw inferences about the processes underlying this pattern. The exponents of these functions usually approximate -3/4 at geographical scales, but they deviate from this value when smaller spatial extensions are considered. This has led to propose that body size-abundance relationships at small spatial scales may reflect the impact of environmental changes. This study tests this hypothesis by examining body size spectra of benthic shrimps (Decapoda: Caridea) and snails (Gastropoda) in the Tamiahua lagoon, a brackish body water located in the Eastern coast of Mexico. We mea- sured water quality parameters (dissolved oxygen, salinity, pH, water temperature, sediment organic matter and chemical oxygen demand) and sampled benthic macrofauna during three different climatic conditions of the year (cold, dry and rainy season). Given the small size of most individuals in the benthic macrofaunal samples, we used body volume, instead of weight, to estimate their body size. Body size-abundance relationships of both taxonomic groups were described by tabulating data from each season into base-2 logarithmic body size bins. In both taxonomic groups, observed frequencies per body size class in each season were standardized to yield densities (i.e., individuals/m(3)). Nonlinear regression analyses were separately performed for each taxonomic group at each season to assess whether body size spectra followed power scaling functions. Additionally, for each taxonomic group, multiple regression analyses were used to determine whether these relationships varied among seasons. Our results indicated that, while body size-abundance relationships in both taxonomic groups followed power functions, the parameters defining the shape of these relationships varied among seasons. These variations in the parameters of the body size-abundance relationships seems to be related to changes in the abundance of individuals within the different body size classes, which seems to follow the seasonal changes that occur in the environmental conditions of the lagoon. Thus, we propose that these body size-abundance relation- ships are influenced by the frequency and intensity of environmental changes affecting this ecosystem.

Response of neotropical bat assemblages to human land use.

Neotropical bats are sensitive to human-induced habitat changes, and some authors believe bats can be used as bioindicators. In the literature, however, the results are disparate. Some results show bat diversity deceases as disturbance increases, whereas others indicate no effect. Determining the general response patterns of bats when they encounter different degrees of human-induced disturbance across the Neotropics would help to determine their usefulness as bioindicators. In a series of meta-analyses, we compared the occurrence frequency of bat species between well-preserved forests and human-use areas. We obtained data through an extensive review of published peer-reviewed articles, theses, and reports. The overall effect size indicated that human-use areas harbored more bat species than well-preserved forests. Different response patterns emerged when meta-analyses were conducted separately by family, feeding habit, vegetation stratum, and conservation status. Our results suggest that bat assemblages display strong responses to forest loss and land-use change and that the direction and magnitude of these responses depends on the bat group under study and the type of disturbance. Our results are consistent with the idea that bats are useful for assessing the effects of habitat changes in the Neotropics. However, with our meta-analyses we could not detect fine differences in bat feeding habits, especially within Phyllostomidae, or elucidate the effect of landscape configuration.

Ecosystem engineering affects ecosystem functioning in high-Andean landscapes.

Ecosystem engineers are organisms that change the distribution of materials and energy in the abiotic environment, usually creating and maintaining new habitat patches in the landscape. Such changes in habitat conditions have been widely documented to affect the distributions and performances of other species but up to now no studies have addressed how such effects can impact the biotically driven physicochemical processes associated with these landscapes, or ecosystem functions. Based on the widely accepted positive relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functions, we propose that the effects of ecosystem engineers on other species could have an impact on ecosystem functions via two mutually inclusive mechanisms: (1) by adding new species into landscapes, hence increasing species diversity; and (2) by improving the performances of species already present in the landscape. To test these hypotheses, we focused on the effects of a high-Andean ecosystem engineer, the cushion plant Azorella monantha, by comparing the accumulation of plant biomass and nitrogen fixed in plant tissues as species richness increases in landscapes with and without the engineer species. Our results show that both ecosystem functions increased with species richness in both landscape types, but landscapes including A. monantha cushions reached higher outcomes of plant biomass and nitrogen fixed in plant tissues than landscapes without cushions. Moreover, our results indicate that such positive effects on ecosystem functions could be mediated by the two mechanisms proposed above. Then, given the conspicuousness of ecosystem engineering in nature and its strong influence on species diversity, and given the well-known relationship between species diversity and ecosystem function, we suggest that the application of the conceptual framework proposed herein to other ecosystems would help to advance our understanding of the forces driving ecosystem functioning.

Positive interactions between alpine plant species and the nurse cushion plant Laretia acaulis do not increase with elevation in the Andes of central Chile.

In alpine habitats, positive interactions among plants tend to increase with elevation as a result of altitudinal increase in environmental harshness. However, in mountains located in arid zones, lower elevations are also stressful because of scarce availability of water, suggesting that positive interactions may not necessarily increase with elevation. Here we analysed the spatial association of plant species with the nurse cushion plant Laretia acaulis at two contrasting elevations, and monitored the survival of seedlings of two species experimentally planted within and outside cushions in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. Positive spatial associations with cushions were more frequent at lower elevations. Species growing at the two elevations changed the nature of their association with cushions from neutral or negative at higher elevations to positive at lower elevations. Survival of seedlings was higher within cushions, particularly at lower elevations. The increased facilitation by cushions at lower elevations seems to be related to provision of moisture. This result suggests that cushion plants play a critical role in structuring alpine plant communities at lower elevations, and that climatic changes in rainfall could be very relevant for persistence of plant communities.