Dynamics of Malaria Incidence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: Unveiling Rapid Growth Patterns and Forecasting Future Trends.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a formidable worldwide health challenge, with approximately half of the global population at high risk of catching the infection. This research study aimed to address the pressing public health issue of malaria's escalating prevalence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, Pakistan, and endeavors to estimate the trend for the future growth of the infection. METHODS: The data were collected from the IDSRS of KP, covering a period of 5 years from 2018 to 2022. We proposed a hybrid model that integrated Prophet and TBATS methods, allowing us to efficiently capture the complications of the malaria data and improve forecasting accuracy. To ensure an inclusive assessment, we compared the prediction performance of the proposed hybrid model with other widely used time series models, such as ARIMA, ETS, and ANN. The models were developed through R-statistical software (version 4.2.2). RESULTS: For the prediction of malaria incidence, the suggested hybrid model (Prophet and TBATS) surpassed commonly used time series approaches (ARIMA, ETS, and ANN). Hybrid model assessment metrics portrayed higher accuracy and reliability with lower MAE (8913.9), RMSE (3850.2), and MAPE (0.301) values. According to our forecasts, malaria infections were predicted to spread around 99,301 by December 2023. CONCLUSIONS: We found the hybrid model (Prophet and TBATS) outperformed common time series approaches for forecasting malaria. By December 2023, KP's malaria incidence is expected to be around 99,301, making future incidence forecasts important. Policymakers will be able to use these findings to curb disease and implement efficient policies for malaria control.

Malaria prevalence in Pakistan: A systematic review and meta-analysis (2006-2021).

Malaria is one of the major public health issues globally. Malaria infection spreads through mosquito bites from infected female Anopheles mosquitoes. This study aims to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on malaria prevalence in Pakistan from 2006 to 2021. We searched PubMed, Science Direct, EMBASE, EMCare, and Google Scholar to acquire data on the prevalence of malaria infections. We performed a meta-analysis with a random-effects model to obtain the pooled prevalence of malaria, Plasmodium vivax, and Plasmodium falciparum. Meta-analysis was computed using R 4.1.2 Version statistical software. I2 and time series analysis were performed to identify a possible source of heterogeneity across studies. A funnel plot and the Freeman-Tukey Double Arcsine Transformed Proportion were used to evaluate the presence of publication bias. Out of the 315 studies collected, only 45 full-text articles were screened and included in the final measurable meta-analysis. Pooled malaria prevalence in Pakistan was 23.3%, with Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium falciparum, and mixed infection rates of 79.13%, 16.29%, and 3.98%, respectively. Similarly, the analysis revealed that the maximum malaria prevalence was 99.79% in Karachi and the minimum was 1.68% in the Larkana district. Amazingly, this systematic review and meta-analysis detected a wide variation in malaria prevalence in Pakistan. Pakistan's public health department and other competent authorities should pay close attention to the large decrease in mosquito populations to curb the infection rate.

Prevalence of dengue virus in Haripur district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

Dengue virus (DENV) has caused about 12 large outbreaks in Pakistan, resulting in 286,262 morbidities and 1108 deaths. The most affected province is Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). This study was conducted to determine the average DENV prevalence in different areas of the Haripur endemic district of KP and the causing factors of DENV. METHODS: This work was a cross-sectional study that was performed in the DENV endemic district Haripur. A total of 761 individuals were included in this study. The data were categorized according to sex, age and symptoms (like fever, body aches, bleeding, and skin rash). For data analysis, SPSS 23 version was applied. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used to map the study area. RESULTS: In this study, there were 716 confirmed cases of DENV fever, including 421 males (58.8%) and 295 females (41.2%). The most affected age range, 16-30 years, reported by 301 (42.0%), was followed by 31-45 years, 184 (25.7%), above 46 years, 132 (18.4%), and 0-15 years, 99 (13.8%). The positive IgG cases were 581(81.0%). Those whose age ranges from 1 to 15 years 82 (8.7%) cases, 16-30 years 244 (34.1%), 31-45 years 156 (21.8%), above 46-year age 99 (13.8%) cases. In addition, this suggests that those between the ages of 16 and 30 are at the highest risk for DENV infection. However, this might be the fact that individuals in this age range are more likely to be out in the environment, making them more vulnerable to the virus. CONCLUSION: Over the past ten years, DENV fever has become increasingly prevalent in Pakistan. The risk is substantially higher for males. Dengue outbreaks hit those between the ages of 16 and 30 the hardest. The proper monitoring and assessment of DENV are necessary for prevention and controlling the disease. Disease surveillance includes identification and molecular characterization of infected persons and monitoring mosquito populations in high-risk locations for the purpose of vector surveillance. In order to assess the community's willingness to participate in DENV preventive efforts, behavioral impact surveillance is also necessary.

Prevalence of neuropsychiatric disorders in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus in Pakistan: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: By conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis, we investigated the prevalence of neuropsychiatric (NP) symptoms among systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients in Pakistan. Methods: In this review work, three electronic databases (Web of Science, MEDLINE, and Google Scholar) and local databases were screened for 20 years from 1 January 2002 to 30 September 2022, to identify the articles evaluating the prevalence of NP symptoms in SLE patients in Pakistan. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis to estimate the prevalence of NPSLE. Statistical heterogeneity was measured by the I2 index, and subgroup meta-analyses were used to access the statistical heterogeneity. Furthermore, meta-regression models were used to examine the associations between prevalence estimates and study characteristics of interest. Three independent authors reviewed existing studies, extracted data, and rated the qualities of selected studies. This review was registered on PROSPERO (Registration no. CRD42022361798). Results: Thirteen studies met the inclusion criteria out of the 322 studies with a total of 2,003 SLE patients for this systematic review and meta-analysis. The prevalence of NP disorders in SLE patients was estimated to be 30.42% (95% CI:18.26-44.11%), with cognitive dysfunction being the most common (31.51%; 95% CI:1.28-76.27%), followed by headache (10.22%; 95% CI: 0.00-33.43%), seizures (5.96%; 95% CI: 3.80-8.53%), psychosis (3.64%; 95% CI: 2.38-5.13%), and neuropathy is the least common (0.86%; 95% CI: 0.00-2.74%). The heterogeneity between studies was significant (p < 0.01). The pooled prevalence of NP disorders among SLE patients was found highest in Punjab (41.21%) and lowest in Sindh (17.60%). Conclusion: Findings from this study revealed that SLE patients have a high prevalence of NP disorders. The most common symptoms were cognitive dysfunctions, headaches, seizures, psychosis, and neuropathy. Clinicians can manage these potentially deadly and disabling diseases more effectively if they understand the incidence of each NP symptom in SLE patients. NP symptoms among SLE patients are at their peak in Pakistan; policymakers should devise preventive strategies to curb the disease. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record. php?RecordID=361798, identifier CRD42022361798.