Preoperative risk prediction models for acute kidney injury after noncardiac surgery: an independent external validation cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Numerous models have been developed to predict acute kidney injury (AKI) after noncardiac surgery, yet there is a lack of independent validation and comparison among them. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search to review published risk prediction models for AKI after noncardiac surgery. An independent external validation was performed using a retrospective surgical cohort at a large Chinese hospital from January 2019 to October 2022. The cohort included patients undergoing a wide range of noncardiac surgeries with perioperative creatinine measurements. Postoperative AKI was defined according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria. Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC), calibration (calibration plot), and clinical utility (net benefit), before and after model recalibration through intercept and slope updates. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by including patients without postoperative creatinine measurements in the validation cohort and categorising them as non-AKI cases. RESULTS: Nine prediction models were evaluated, each with varying clinical and methodological characteristics, including the types of surgical cohorts used for model development, AKI definitions, and predictors. In the validation cohort involving 13,186 patients, 650 (4.9%) developed AKI. Three models demonstrated fair discrimination (AUROC between 0.71 and 0.75); other models had poor or failed discrimination. All models exhibited some miscalibration; five of the nine models were well-calibrated after intercept and slope updates. Decision curve analysis indicated that the three models with fair discrimination consistently provided a positive net benefit after recalibration. The results were confirmed in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We identified three models with fair discrimination and potential clinical utility after recalibration for assessing the risk of acute kidney injury after noncardiac surgery.

Astigmatism and its components in 12-year-old Chinese children: the Anyang Childhood Eye Study.

PURPOSE: To determine prevalence of refractive (RA), corneal (CA) and internal astigmatism (IA), including variation with gender and spherical equivalent refraction (SE), in a population of 12-year-old Chinese children. METHODS: A total of 1783 students with a mean age of 12.7 years (range 10.0-15.6 years) completed comprehensive eye examinations in the Anyang Childhood Eye Study. Data of cycloplegic refraction and corneal curvature were analysed. RESULTS: Prevalences of RA, CA and IA ≥1.0 D were 17.4% (95%CI 15.6% to 19.2%), 52.8% (50.5% to 55.1%)%) and 20.9% (19.0% to 22.8%), respectively. With different limits of astigmatism axes classification, including ±15°, ±20° and ±30°, RA and CA axes were mainly 'with-the-rule' (WTR) (ie, correcting axis of negative cylinders at or near 180°), while those for IA axes were mainly 'against-the-rule' (ATR) (ie, correcting axis of negative cylinders at or near 90°). RA was not different between the genders, but girls had higher prevalence and greater means of CA and IA. RA and CA increased in students with higher ametropia (more myopia and more hyperopia) and were the highest in a high myopic group (SE≤-6 D), while IA was stable across refraction groups. Children with RA higher than 0.50 D were more likely to have lens corrections (51%, 57%, 61% and 69% for magnitudes of ≥0.50 D, ≥0.75 D, ≥1.0 D and ≥1.5 D, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of RA in the Chinese 12-year-old children was relatively high compared with other studies. RA and CA had mainly 'WTR' astigmatism, while IA was mainly ATR and partially compensated for CA. Girls had greater means and prevalences of CA and IA than did boys. Both RA and CA, but not IA, increased with refractive errors away from emmetropia.

The association of TGFB1 genetic polymorphisms with high myopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The TGFB1 gene is among the most studied genes in high myopia due to its role in scleral remodeling. But reported findings of association on TGFB1 and high myopia are inconsistent. This present study is to evaluate the association of TGFB1 polymorphisms and high myopia. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted on studies published up to April 5, 2015. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Heterogeneity across studies was evaluated by Cochran Q statistic test and the I(2) index. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by the approach of one-study remove to assess the influence of single study on the combined effect. RESULTS: Eight studies were included in this study for meta-analysis. Rs1982073 was associated with high myopia in dominant model (OR=1.64; 95% CI=1.04~2.58; P<0.05), heterozygous model (OR=1.54; 95% CI=1.02~2.33; P<0.05), homozygous model (OR=1.90; 95% CI=1.01~3.55; P=0.05) and allelic model (OR=1.36; 95% CI=1.01~1.84; P=0.05). However, there was no statistical significance when Bonferroni correction was considered. Rs4803455 was associated with high myopia in recessive model (OR=0.40; 95% CI=0.25~0.64; P<0.01) and homozygous model (OR=0.42; 95% CI=0.26~0.68; P<0.01). Rs1800469 was associated with high myopia in allelic model (OR=0.78; 95% CI=0.64~0.96; P<0.05). And the associations can withstand Bonferroni correction in models mentioned above when referring to rs4803455 (P<0.01) and rs1800469 (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analysis of existing data revealed a suggestive association of TGFB1 rs1982073 and rs4803455 with high myopia.