Designing a circular carbon and plastics economy for a sustainable future.

The linear production and consumption of plastics today is unsustainable. It creates large amounts of unnecessary and mismanaged waste, pollution and carbon dioxide emissions, undermining global climate targets and the Sustainable Development Goals. This Perspective provides an integrated technological, economic and legal view on how to deliver a circular carbon and plastics economy that minimizes carbon dioxide emissions. Different pathways that maximize recirculation of carbon (dioxide) between plastics waste and feedstocks are outlined, including mechanical, chemical and biological recycling, and those involving the use of biomass and carbon dioxide. Four future scenarios are described, only one of which achieves sufficient greenhouse gas savings in line with global climate targets. Such a bold system change requires 50% reduction in future plastic demand, complete phase-out of fossil-derived plastics, 95% recycling rates of retrievable plastics and use of renewable energy. It is hard to overstate the challenge of achieving this goal. We therefore present a roadmap outlining the scale and timing of the economic and legal interventions that could possibly support this. Assessing the service lifespan and recoverability of plastic products, along with considerations of sufficiency and smart design, can moreover provide design principles to guide future manufacturing, use and disposal of plastics.

A Middle Pleistocene Denisovan molar from the Annamite Chain of northern Laos.

The Pleistocene presence of the genus Homo in continental Southeast Asia is primarily evidenced by a sparse stone tool record and rare human remains. Here we report a Middle Pleistocene hominin specimen from Laos, with the discovery of a molar from the Tam Ngu Hao 2 (Cobra Cave) limestone cave in the Annamite Mountains. The age of the fossil-bearing breccia ranges between 164-131 kyr, based on the Bayesian modelling of luminescence dating of the sedimentary matrix from which it was recovered, U-series dating of an overlying flowstone, and U-series-ESR dating of associated faunal teeth. Analyses of the internal structure of the molar in tandem with palaeoproteomic analyses of the enamel indicate that the tooth derives from a young, likely female, Homo individual. The close morphological affinities with the Xiahe specimen from China indicate that they belong to the same taxon and that Tam Ngu Hao 2 most likely represents a Denisovan.

Evaluating scenarios toward zero plastic pollution.

Plastic pollution is a pervasive and growing problem. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions to reduce plastic pollution, we modeled stocks and flows of municipal solid waste and four sources of microplastics through the global plastic system for five scenarios between 2016 and 2040. Implementing all feasible interventions reduced plastic pollution by 40% from 2016 rates and 78% relative to "business as usual" in 2040. Even with immediate and concerted action, 710 million metric tons of plastic waste cumulatively entered aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. To avoid a massive build-up of plastic in the environment, coordinated global action is urgently needed to reduce plastic consumption; increase rates of reuse, waste collection, and recycling; expand safe disposal systems; and accelerate innovation in the plastic value chain.

OSIRIS: A model for integrating the effects of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems.

While much has been learnt about the impacts of specific stressors on individual marine organisms, considerable debate exists over the nature and impact of multiple simultaneous stressors on both individual species and marine ecosystems. We describe a modelling tool (OSIRIS) for integrating the effects of multiple simultaneous stressors. The model is relatively computationally light, and demonstrated using a coarse-grained, non-spatial and simplified representation of a temperate marine ecosystem. This version is capable of reproducing a wide range of dynamic responses. Results indicate the degree to which interactions are synergistic is crucial in determining sensitivity to forcing, particularly for the higher trophic levels, which can respond non-linearly to stronger forcing. Stronger synergistic interactions sensitize the system to variability in forcing, and combinations of stronger forcing, noise and synergies between effects are particularly potent. This work also underlines the significant potential risk incurred in treating stressors on ecosystems as individual and additive.

Last appearance of Homo erectus at Ngandong, Java, 117,000-108,000 years ago.

Homo erectus is the founding early hominin species of Island Southeast Asia, and reached Java (Indonesia) more than 1.5 million years ago1,2. Twelve H. erectus calvaria (skull caps) and two tibiae (lower leg bones) were discovered from a bone bed located about 20 m above the Solo River at Ngandong (Central Java) between 1931 and 19333,4, and are of the youngest, most-advanced form of H. erectus5-8. Despite the importance of the Ngandong fossils, the relationship between the fossils, terrace fill and ages have been heavily debated9-14. Here, to resolve the age of the Ngandong evidence, we use Bayesian modelling of 52 radiometric age estimates to establish-to our knowledge-the first robust chronology at regional, valley and local scales. We used uranium-series dating of speleothems to constrain regional landscape evolution; luminescence, 40argon/39argon (40Ar/39Ar) and uranium-series dating to constrain the sequence of terrace evolution; and applied uranium-series and uranium series-electron-spin resonance (US-ESR) dating to non-human fossils to directly date our re-excavation of Ngandong5,15. We show that at least by 500 thousand years ago (ka) the Solo River was diverted into the Kendeng Hills, and that it formed the Solo terrace sequence between 316 and 31 ka and the Ngandong terrace between about 140 and 92 ka. Non-human fossils recovered during the re-excavation of Ngandong date to between 109 and 106 ka (uranium-series minimum)16 and 134 and 118 ka (US-ESR), with modelled ages of 117 to 108 thousand years (kyr) for the H. erectus bone bed, which accumulated during flood conditions3,17. These results negate the extreme ages that have been proposed for the site and solidify Ngandong as the last known occurrence of this long-lived species.

Large networks of rational agents form persistent echo chambers.

Echo chambers (ECs) are enclosed epistemic circles where like-minded people communicate and reinforce pre-existing beliefs. It remains unclear if cognitive errors are necessarily required for ECs to emerge, and then how ECs are able to persist in networks with available contrary information. We show that ECs can theoretically emerge amongst error-free Bayesian agents, and that larger networks encourage rather than ameliorate EC growth. This suggests that the network structure itself contributes to echo chamber formation. While cognitive and social biases might exacerbate EC emergence, they are not necessary conditions. In line with this, we test stylized interventions to reduce EC formation, finding that system-wide truthful 'educational' broadcasts ameliorate the effect, but do not remove it entirely. Such interventions are shown to be more effective on agents newer to the network. Critically, this work serves as a formal argument for the responsibility of system architects in mitigating EC formation and retention.

Unifying relationships between complexity and stability in mutualistic ecological communities.

Conserving ecosystem function and associated services requires deep understanding of the underlying basis of system stability. While the study of ecological dynamics is a mature and diverse field, the lack of a general model that predicts a broad range of theoretical and empirical observations has allowed unresolved contradictions to persist. Here we provide a general model of mutualistic ecological interactions between two groups and show for the first time how the conditions for bi-stability, the nature of critical transitions, and identifiable leading indicators in time-series can be derived from the basic parameters describing the underlying ecological interactions. Strong mutualism and nonlinearity in handling-time are found to be necessary conditions for the occurrence of critical transitions. We use the model to resolve open questions concerning the effects of heterogeneity in inter-species interactions on both resilience and abundance, and discuss these in terms of potential trade-offs in real systems. This framework provides a basis for rich investigations of ecological system dynamics, and may be generalizable across many ecological contexts.

Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change.

Drylands are home to over 2 billion people globally, many of whom use the land for agricultural and pastoral activities. These vulnerable livelihoods could be disrupted if desert dunefields become more active in response to climate and land use change. Despite increasing knowledge about the role that wind, moisture availability and vegetation cover play in shaping dryland landscapes, relatively little is known about how drylands might respond to climatic and population pressures over the 21st century. Here we use a newly developed numerical model, which fully couples vegetation and sediment-transport dynamics, to simulate potential landscape evolution at three locations in the Kalahari Desert, under two future emissions scenarios: stabilising (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5). Our simulations suggest that whilst our study sites will experience some climatically-induced landscape change, the impacts of climate change alone on vegetation cover and sediment mobility may be relatively small. However, human activity could strongly exacerbate certain landscape trajectories. Fire frequency has a primary impact on vegetation cover, and, together with grazing pressure, plays a significant role in modulating shrub encroachment and ensuing land degradation processes. Appropriate land management strategies must be implemented across the Kalahari Desert to avoid severe environmental and socio-economic consequences over the coming decades.

Spatial variability in sustainable development trajectories in South Africa: provincial level safe and just operating spaces.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represents the first globally agreed framework to address human development and environmental stewardship in an integrated way. One approach to summarising national SDG status is our "barometer for inclusive sustainable development in South Africa". The barometer downscales global social and planetary boundaries to provide status and trends for 20 critical indicators of environmental stress and social deprivation. In this paper, we explore the sub-national heterogeneity in sustainable development indicators by creating barometers defining the 'safe and just operating space' for South Africa's nine provinces. Our results show that environmental stress varies significantly and provinces need to focus on quite different issues. Although generally environmental stress is increasing, there are areas where it is decreasing, most notably, marine harvesting. Social deprivation results show more of a pattern with high levels of deprivation in employment, income and safety across the provinces, and historically disadvantaged provinces showing the most deprivation overall. Although deprivation is generally decreasing, there are notable exceptions such as food security in six provinces. Our provincial barometers and trend plots are novel in that they present comparable environmental and social data on key indicators over time for all South Africa's provinces. They are visual tools that communicate the range of key challenges and risks that provincial governments face, and are non-specialist and accessible to a range of audiences. In addition, the paper provides a critical case study of spatial disaggregation of national data that is required for the SDGs implementation.

Tracking sustainable development with a national barometer for South Africa using a downscaled "safe and just space" framework.

Nations in the 21st century face a complex mix of environmental and social challenges, as highlighted by the on-going Sustainable Development Goals process. The "planetary boundaries" concept [Rockström J, et al. (2009) Nature 461(7263):472-475], and its extension through the addition of social well-being indicators to create a framework for "safe and just" inclusive sustainable development [Raworth K (2012) Nature Climate Change 2(4):225-226], have received considerable attention in science and policy circles. As the chief aim of this framework is to influence public policy, and this happens largely at the national level, we assess whether it can be used at the national scale, using South Africa as a test case. We developed a decision-based methodology for downscaling the framework and created a national "barometer" for South Africa, combining 20 indicators and boundaries for environmental stress and social deprivation. We find that it is possible to maintain the original design and concept of the framework while making it meaningful in the national context, raising new questions and identifying priority areas for action. Our results show that South Africa has exceeded its environmental boundaries for biodiversity loss, marine harvesting, freshwater use, and climate change, and social deprivation is most severe in the areas of safety, income, and employment. Trends since 1994 show improvement in nearly all social indicators, but progression toward or over boundaries for most environmental indicators. The barometer shows that achieving inclusive sustainable development in South Africa requires national and global action on multiple fronts, and careful consideration of the interplay between different environmental domains and development strategies.