Investigating changes in travel behavior over time in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected travel behavior, including the frequency and mode of travel, with the magnitude and nature of these effects varying over time. This study investigates the nature of these relationships by examining changes in various measures of travel behavior, including weekly driving hours, as well as the frequency of telecommuting, use of ride-sharing services, travel for medical purposes, and use of food delivery services. Self-reported travel data from a representative statewide survey of Michigan residents were used to assess changes in these metrics during the early stages of the pandemic, as well as one year thereafter. Random effects linear regression and ordered logit regression models were estimated and the findings show that various changes in behavior had long-lasting effects, while other behaviors generally reverted back toward pre-pandemic levels. In addition, these changes were found to vary across individuals. For example, significant differences were observed based on socio-demographic characteristics, between urban and rural areas, and amongst individuals with differing views on COVID-19 and related government interventions. In general, the pandemic tended to have less pronounced and sustained effects among younger adults as compared to older age groups. Further, those individuals who were opposed to mandatory COVID-19 vaccines were less likely to change their travel behavior, during both the early and latter stages of the pandemic. Changes were observed consistently across most of the travel metrics of interest. Among these, overall driving hours, travel for medical purposes, and ride-sharing were still lower during the latter stages of the pandemic, while telecommuting and the use of food delivery services reverted nearer to pre-pandemic levels.

Examining Impacts of COVID-19-Related Stay-At-Home Orders through a Two-Way Random Effects Model.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching impacts on public health and safety, economics, and the transportation system. To reduce the spread of this disease, federal and local governments around the world have introduced stay-at-home orders and other restrictions on travel to "non-essential" businesses to implement social distancing. Preliminary evidence suggests substantial variability in the impacts of these orders in the United States, both across states and over time. This study examines this issue using daily county-level vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data for the 48 continental U.S. states and the District of Columbia. A two-way random effects model is estimated to assess changes in VMT from March 1 to June 30, 2020 as compared with baseline January travel levels. The implementation of stay-at-home orders was associated with a 56.4 percent reduction in VMT on average. However, this effect was shown to dissipate over time, which may be attributable to "quarantine fatigue." In the absence of full shelter-in-place orders, travel was also reduced where restrictions on select businesses were introduced. For example, restrictions on entertainment, indoor dining, and indoor recreational activities corresponded to reductions in VMT of 3 to 4 percent while restrictions on retail and personal care facilities showed 13 percent lower traffic levels. VMT was also shown to vary based on the number of COVID case reports, as well as with respect to other characteristics, including median household income, political leanings, and how rural the county was in nature.

How do the type and duration of distraction affect speed selection and crash risk? An evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

Distracted driving is among the leading causes of roadway crashes worldwide. However, due to limitations of police-reported crash data, it is often challenging to understand the nature and magnitude of this problem. Distraction has also been shown to affect driver speed selection, which is important as both mean speed and speed variance have substantive impacts on crash risk. This study utilizes naturalistic driving data to investigate the relationship between the engagement in various secondary (non-driving) tasks and driver speed selection under different driving contexts. Separate analyses were conducted for low-speed and high-speed driving environments. Two-way random effects linear regression models were estimated for both speed regimes, while controlling for driver, roadway, and traffic characteristics. The differences were assessed based upon ten types of secondary tasks. In general, engagement in all tasks was found to decrease speeds in high-speed environments while the effects were mixed in low-speed settings. The changes in speeds were much pronounced for secondary tasks that include a combination of visual, manual, and cognitive distractions, such as cell phone use. Among all secondary tasks, an average episode of a driver talking on a handheld cellphone was associated with a 6-mph speed reduction in high-speed environments, but a 3.5-mph increase in low-speed settings. In addition to examining impacts on speed selection, the risk of involvement in crash and near-crash events was also evaluated in consideration of the type and duration of distraction. Interestingly, distractions tended to show similar relationships, in both direction and magnitude, with the risk of involvement in both crash and near-crash events. From a policy standpoint, this study provides further motivation for legislation and other programs aimed at curbing distracted driving.