Prediction of 30-day mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis using risk scores: Insights from a European multicenter comparative validation study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear today whether risk scores created specifically to predict early mortality after cardiac operations for infective endocarditis (IE) outperform or not the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II). METHODS: Perioperative data and outcomes from a European multicenter series of patients undergoing surgery for definite IE were retrospectively reviewed. Only the cases with known pathogen and without missing values for all considered variables were retained for analyses. A comparative validation of EuroSCORE II and five specific risk scores for early mortality after surgery for IE - (1) STS-IE (Society of Thoracic Surgeons for IE); (2) PALSUSE (Prosthetic valve, Age ≥70, Large intra-cardiac destruction, Staphylococcus spp, Urgent surgery, Sex (female), EuroSCORE ≥10); (3) ANCLA (Anemia, New York Heart Association class IV, Critical state, Large intra-cardiac destruction, surgery on thoracic Aorta); (4) AEPEI II (Association pour l'Étude et la Prévention de l'Endocardite Infectieuse II); (5) APORTEI (Análisis de los factores PROnósticos en el Tratamiento quirúrgico de la Endocarditis Infecciosa) - was carried out using calibration plot and receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. Areas under the curve (AUCs) were compared 1:1 according to the Hanley-McNeil's method. The agreement between APORTEI score and EuroSCORE II of the 30-day mortality prediction after surgery was also appraised. RESULTS: A total of 1,012 patients from five European university-affiliated centers underwent 1,036 cardiac operations, with a 30-day mortality after surgery of 9.7%. All IE-specific risk scores considered achieved better results than EuroSCORE II in terms of calibration; AEPEI II and APORTEI score showed the best performances. Despite poor calibration, EuroSCORE II overcame in discrimination every specific risk score (AUC, 0.751 vs. 0.693 or less, p=0.01 or less). For a higher/lesser than 20% expected mortality, the agreement of prediction between APORTEI score and EuroSCORE II was 86%. CONCLUSION: EuroSCORE II discrimination for 30-day mortality after surgery for IE was higher than five established IE-specific risk scores. AEPEI II and APORTEI score showed the best results in terms of calibration.

Intra-hospital variation of gut microbiota product, trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO), predicts future major adverse cardiovascular events after myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE: Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) has been associated with atherosclerosis and poor outcome. We evaluated the prognostic impact of intra-hospital TMAO variation on patient outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: Blood samples from 149 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were taken on admission and discharge. Plasma TMAO was determined by HPLC-MS. The endpoint was a composite three-point MACE (major adverse cardiovascular events), including all-cause mortality, re-infarction, or heart failure (HF) development. Median TMAO concentration on admission was significantly higher than on discharge (respectively, 7.81 [3.47-19.98] vs 3.45 [2.3-4.78] µM, p < 0.001). After estimating the 3.45 µM TMAO cut-off with the analysis of the continuous hazard ratio, we divided our cohort into two groups. The first group included 75 (50.3%) patients whose TMAO levels remained below or decreased under cut-off (low-low/high-low; LL/HL), while the second group included 74 (49.7%) patients whose TMAO levels remained high or increased above the cut-off during hospitalisation (high-high/low-high; HH/LH). During the median 30-month follow-up, 21.5% of patients experienced the composite endpoint. At Kaplan-Meier analysis, a trend of increasing MACE risk was observed in patients in the HH/LH group (p = 0.05). At multivariable Cox analysis, patients from the HH/LH group had more than two times higher risk of MACE during the follow-up than the LL/HL group (HR = 2.15 [95% CI, 1.03-4.5], p = 0.04). Other independent predictors of MACE were older age and worse left ventricular systolic function. CONCLUSION: In patients with AMI, permanently high or increasing TMAO levels during hospitalisation are associated with a higher risk of MACE during long-term follow-up.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Characterization and Clinical Outcomes of Dilated and Arrhythmogenic Left Ventricular Cardiomyopathies.

BACKGROUND: Nondilated left ventricular cardiomyopathy (NDLVC) has been recently differentiated from dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). A comprehensive characterization of these 2 entities using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and genetic testing has never been performed. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to provide a thorough characterization and assess clinical outcomes in a large multicenter cohort of patients with DCM and NDLVC. METHODS: A total of 462 patients with DCM (227) or NDLVC (235) with CMR data from 4 different referral centers were retrospectively analyzed. The study endpoint was a composite of sudden cardiac death or major ventricular arrhythmias. RESULTS: In comparison to DCM, NDLVC had a higher prevalence of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants of arrhythmogenic genes (40% vs 23%; P < 0.001), higher left ventricular (LV) systolic function (LV ejection fraction: 51% ± 12% vs 36% ± 15%; P < 0.001) and higher prevalence of free-wall late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) (27% vs 14%; P < 0.001). Conversely, DCM showed higher prevalence of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants of nonarrhythmogenic genes (23% vs 12%; P = 0.002) and septal LGE (45% vs 32%; P = 0.004). Over a median follow-up of 81 months (Q1-Q3: 40-132 months), the study outcome occurred in 98 (21%) patients. LGE with septal location (HR: 1.929; 95% CI: 1.033-3.601; P = 0.039) was independently associated with the risk of sudden cardiac death or major ventricular arrhythmias together with LV dilatation, older age, advanced NYHA functional class, frequent ventricular ectopic activity, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia. CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter cohort of patients with DCM and NDLVC, septal LGE together with LV dilatation, age, advanced disease, and frequent and repetitive ventricular arrhythmias were powerful predictors of major arrhythmic events.

Flexible Approaches Based on Multistate Models and Microsimulation to Perform Real-World Cost-Effectiveness Analyses: An Application to Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin-Kexin Type 9 Inhibitors.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to show the application of flexible statistical methods in real-world cost-effectiveness analyses applied in the cardiovascular field, focusing specifically on the use of proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors for hyperlipidemia. METHODS: The proposed method allowed us to use an electronic health database to emulate a target trial for cost-effectiveness analysis using multistate modeling and microsimulation. We formally established the study design and provided precise definitions of the causal measures of interest while also outlining the assumptions necessary for accurately estimating these measures using the available data. Additionally, we thoroughly considered goodness-of-fit assessments and sensitivity analyses of the decision model, which are crucial to capture the complexity of individuals' healthcare pathway and to enhance the validity of this type of health economic models. RESULTS: In the disease model, the Markov assumption was found to be inadequate, and a "time-reset" timescale was implemented together with the use of a time-dependent variable to incorporate past hospitalization history. Furthermore, the microsimulation decision model demonstrated a satisfying goodness of fit, as evidenced by the consistent results obtained in the short-term horizon compared with a nonmodel-based approach. Notably, proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors revealed their favorable cost-effectiveness only in the long-term follow-up, with a minimum willingness to pay of 39 000 Euro/life years gained. CONCLUSIONS: The approach demonstrated its significant utility in several ways. Unlike nonmodel-based or alternative model-based methods, it enabled to (1) investigate long-term cost-effectiveness comprehensively, (2) use an appropriate disease model that aligns with the specific problem under study, and (3) conduct subgroup-specific cost-effectiveness analyses to gain more targeted insights.

Clinical and Prognostic Implications of Right Ventricular Uptake on Bone Scintigraphy in Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: The extent of myocardial bone tracer uptake with technetium pyrophosphate, hydroxymethylene diphosphonate, and 3,3-diphosphono-1,2-propanodicarboxylate in transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) might reflect cardiac amyloid burden and be associated with outcome. METHODS: Consecutive patients with ATTR-CM who underwent diagnostic bone tracer scintigraphy with acquisition of whole-body planar and cardiac single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) images from the National Amyloidosis Centre and 4 Italian centers were included. Cardiac uptake was defined according to the Perugini classification: 0=absent cardiac uptake; 1=mild uptake less than bone; 2=moderate uptake equal to bone; and 3=high uptake greater than bone. Extent of right ventricular (RV) uptake was defined as focal (basal segment of the RV free wall only) or diffuse (extending beyond basal segment) on the basis of SPECT imaging. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1422 patients with ATTR-CM, RV uptake accompanying left ventricular uptake was identified by SPECT imaging in 100% of cases at diagnosis. Median follow-up in the whole cohort was 34 months (interquartile range, 21 to 50 months), and 494 patients died. By Kaplan-Meier analysis, diffuse RV uptake on SPECT imaging (n=936) was associated with higher all-cause mortality compared with focal (n=486) RV uptake (77.9% versus 22.1%; P<0.001), whereas Perugini grade was not associated with survival (P=0.27 in grade 2 versus grade 3). On multivariable analysis, after adjustment for age at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03 [95% CI, 1.02-1.04]; P<0.001), presence of the p.(V142I) TTR variant (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.20-1.81]; P=0.004), National Amyloidosis Centre stage (each category, P<0.001), stroke volume index (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.97-0.99]; P=0.043), E/e' (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.007-1.03]; P=0.004), right atrial area index (HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.02-1.08]; P=0.001), and left ventricular global longitudinal strain (HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03-1.09]; P<0.001), diffuse RV uptake on SPECT imaging (HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.26-2.04]; P<0.001) remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The prognostic value of diffuse RV uptake was maintained across each National Amyloidosis Centre stage and in both wild-type and hereditary ATTR-CM (P<0.001 and P=0.02, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Diffuse RV uptake of bone tracer on SPECT imaging is associated with poor outcomes in patients with ATTR-CM and is an independent prognostic marker at diagnosis.

LDL Cholesterol Variability Impacts the Prognosis of Patients with Chronic Ischemic Heart Disease: A Real-World Italian Experience.

Epidemiologic, genetic, and clinical intervention studies have indisputably shown that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is causal in the development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, LDL-C variability could be related to increased ASCVD risk in patients already treated with statins. The aim of the present retrospective real-life study was to assess the prognostic impact of LDL-C variability on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations in patients with stable cardiovascular artery disease. A total of 3398 patients were enrolled and followed up for a median of 56 months. Considering LDL-C < 70 mg/dL as the therapeutical target, during follow-up, the percentage of patients who achieved this goal raised from 20.7% to 31.9%. In total, 1988 events were recorded, of which 428 were all-cause deaths and 1560 were cardiovascular hospitalizations. At the last medical examination, each increase in LDL-C levels of 20 mg/dL corresponded to a 6% raise in the risk of any event (HR 1.06; 95%CI, 1.03 to 1.09). In conclusion, our real-world study supports the hypothesis that a continuous and progressive downward trend in LDL-C levels is needed to achieve and maintain a cardiovascular benefit, at least in secondary prevention.

Prognostic value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing repetition during follow-up of clinically stable patients with severe dilated cardiomyopathy. A preliminary study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a recognized tool for prognostic stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Given the lack of data currently available, the aim of this study was to test the prognostic value of repeating CPET during the follow-up of patients with DCM. METHODS: This multicenter, retrospective study, analyzed DCM patients who consecutively performed two echocardiographies and CPETs during clinical stability. The study end-point was a composite of death from all causes, heart transplantation, left ventricular assist device implantation, life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias or hospitalization for heart failure. RESULTS: 216 DCM patients were enrolled (52 years, 78% male, NYHA I-II 82%, LVEF 32%, 94% on ACE inhibitors/ARNI, 95% on beta-blockers). The interval between CPETs was 15 months. During a median follow-up of 38 months from the second CPET, 102 (47%) patients experienced the study end-point. Among them, there was stability of echocardiographic values but a significant worsening of functional capacity. Among the 173 patients (80%) who did not show echocardiographic left ventricular reverse remodeling (LVRR), the 1-year prevalence of the study-end point was higher in patients who worsened vs patients who maintained stable their functional capacity at CPET (38 vs. 15% respectively, p-value: 0.001). These results were consistent also when excluding life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias from the composite end-point. CONCLUSION: In clinically stable DCM patients with important depression of LVEF, the repetition of combined echocardiography and CPET might be recommended. When LVRR fails, 1-year repetition of CPET could identify higher-risk patients.

Comparison of discrimination and calibration performance of ECG-based machine learning models for prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) methods to build prediction models starting from electrocardiogram (ECG) signals are an emerging research field. The aim of the present study is to investigate the performances of two ML approaches based on ECGs for the prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF), in terms of discrimination, calibration and sample size dependence. METHODS: We trained two models to predict new-onset AF: a convolutional neural network (CNN), that takes as input the raw ECG signals, and an eXtreme Gradient Boosting model (XGB), that uses the signal's extracted features. A penalized logistic regression model (LR) was used as a benchmark. Discrimination was evaluated with the area under the ROC curve, while calibration with the integrated calibration index. We investigated the dependence of models' performances on the sample size and on class imbalance corrections introduced with random under-sampling. RESULTS: CNN's discrimination was the most affected by the sample size, outperforming XGB and LR only around n = 10.000 observations. Calibration showed only a small dependence on the sample size for all the models considered. Balancing the training set with random undersampling did not improve discrimination in any of the models. Instead, the main effect of imbalance corrections was to worsen the models' calibration (for CNN, integrated calibration index from 0.014 [0.01, 0.018] to 0.17 [0.16, 0.19]). The sample size emerged as a fundamental point for developing the CNN model, especially in terms of discrimination (AUC = 0.75 [0.73, 0.77] when n = 10.000, AUC = 0.80 [0.79, 0.81] when n = 150.000). The effect of the sample size on the other two models was weaker. Imbalance corrections led to poorly calibrated models, for all the approaches considered, reducing the clinical utility of the models. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the choice of approach in the analysis of ECG should be based on the amount of data available, preferring more standard models for small datasets. Moreover, imbalance correction methods should be avoided when developing clinical prediction models, where calibration is crucial.

Association of Tricuspid Regurgitation With Outcome in Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is common in chronic heart failure (HF) and is associated with negative prognosis. However, evidence on prognostic implications of TR in acute HF is lacking. We sought to investigate the association between TR and mortality and the interaction with pulmonary hypertension (PH) in patients admitted for acute HF. METHODS: We enrolled 1176 consecutive patients with a primary diagnosis of acute HF and with available noninvasive estimation of TR and pulmonary arterial systolic pressure. RESULTS: Moderate-severe TR was present in 352 patients (29.9%) and was associated with older age and more comorbidities. The prevalence of PH (ie, pulmonary arterial systolic pressure >40 mm Hg), right ventricular dysfunction, and mitral regurgitation was higher in moderate-severe TR. At 1 year, 184 (15.6%) patients died. Moderate-severe TR was associated with higher 1-year mortality risk after adjustment for other echocardiographic parameters (pulmonary arterial systolic pressure, left ventricle ejection fraction, right ventricular dysfunction, mitral regurgitation, left and right atrial indexed volumes; hazard ratio, 1.718; P=0.009), and the association with outcome was maintained when clinical variables (eg, natriuretic peptides, serum creatinine and urea, systolic blood pressure, atrial fibrillation) were added to the multivariable model (hazard ratio, 1.761; P=0.024). The association between moderate-severe TR and outcome was consistent in patients with versus without PH, with versus without right ventricular dysfunction, and with versus without left ventricle ejection fraction <50%. Patients with coexistent moderate-severe TR and PH had 3-fold higher 1-year mortality risk compared with patients with no TR or PH (hazard ratio, 3.024; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for acute HF, the severity of TR is associated with 1-year survival, regardless of the presence of PH. The coexistence of moderate-severe TR and estimated PH was associated with a further increase in mortality risk. Our data must be interpreted in the context of potential underestimation of pulmonary arterial systolic pressure in patients with severe TR.

Deep-learning-based prognostic modeling for incident heart failure in patients with diabetes using electronic health records: A retrospective cohort study.

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have more than twice the risk of developing heart failure (HF) compared to patients without diabetes. The present study is aimed to build an artificial intelligence (AI) prognostic model that takes in account a large and heterogeneous set of clinical factors and investigates the risk of developing HF in diabetic patients. We carried out an electronic health records- (EHR-) based retrospective cohort study that included patients with cardiological clinical evaluation and no previous diagnosis of HF. Information consists of features extracted from clinical and administrative data obtained as part of routine medical care. The primary endpoint was diagnosis of HF (during out-of-hospital clinical examination or hospitalization). We developed two prognostic models using (1) elastic net regularization for Cox proportional hazard model (COX) and (2) a deep neural network survival method (PHNN), in which a neural network was used to represent a non-linear hazard function and explainability strategies are applied to estimate the influence of predictors on the risk function. Over a median follow-up of 65 months, 17.3% of the 10,614 patients developed HF. The PHNN model outperformed COX both in terms of discrimination (c-index 0.768 vs 0.734) and calibration (2-year integrated calibration index 0.008 vs 0.018). The AI approach led to the identification of 20 predictors of different domains (age, body mass index, echocardiographic and electrocardiographic features, laboratory measurements, comorbidities, therapies) whose relationship with the predicted risk correspond to known trends in the clinical practice. Our results suggest that prognostic models for HF in diabetic patients may improve using EHRs in combination with AI techniques for survival analysis, which provide high flexibility and better performance with respect to standard approaches.

Prognostic value of echocardiographic evaluation of cardiac mechanics in patients with aortic stenosis and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction.

Left ventricular ejection function (LVEF) is not reliable in identifying subtle systolic dysfunction. Speckle Tracking (ST) plays a promising role and hemodynamic forces (HDFs) are emerging as marker of LV function. The role of LV myocardial deformation and HDFs was investigated in a cohort of patients with aortic stenosis (AS) and normal LVEF. Two hundred fifty three patients (median age 79 years, IQR 73 - 83 years) with mild (n = 87), moderate (n =77) and severe AS (n =89) were retrospectively enrolled. 2D echocardiographic global longitudinal strain (GLS), circumferential strain (GCS) and HDFs were determined. The worsening of AS was associated with raising inappropriate LV mass (p < 0.001) and declined LVEF, despite being in the normal range (p < 0.001). ST and HDFs parameters declined as the AS became severe (p<0.0001, for all). When patients were grouped based on the median of LV endocardial GLS value (> -19,9%) and LV systolic longitudinal force (LVsysLF) value (< 12,49), patients with impaired ST and lower HDFs components had increased incidence of aortic valve replacement (AVR) and worse survival (p <0.024 and p <0.037, respectively). Among ST and HDFs parameters, only LVsysLF was independently associated with AVR and all causes mortality on multivariable Cox regression analysis (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.89-0.99; p= 0.012). Reduced values of LVsysLF were associated with AVR and reduced survival in AS patients. LVsysLF could provide useful information in the stratification of patients with AS and possibly in the choice of timing for AVR.

Diuretic dose trajectories in dilated cardiomyopathy: prognostic implications.

BACKGROUND: For patients with heart failure, prescription of loop diuretics (LD) and of higher doses are associated with an adverse prognosis. We investigated LD dose trajectories and their associations with outcomes in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). METHODS: Associations between outcomes and both furosemide-equivalent dose (FED) at enrolment and change in FED in the subsequent 24 months were evaluated. According to FED trajectory, patients were classified as (i) dose↑ (FED increase by ≥ 50% or newly initiated); (ii) dose↓ (FED decrease by ≥ 50%); (iii) stable dose (change in FED by < 50%); and (iv) never-users. The primary outcome was all-cause-death/heart transplantation/ventricular-assist-device/heart failure hospitalization. The secondary outcome was all-cause-death/heart transplantation/ventricular-assist-device. RESULTS: Of 1,131 patients enrolled, 738 (65%) were prescribed LD at baseline. Baseline FED was independently associated with outcome (HR per 20 mg increase: 1.12 [95% CI 1.04-1.22], p = 0.003). Of the 908 with information on FED within 24 months from enrolment, 31% were never-users; 29% were dose↓; 26% were stable dose and 14% were dose↑. In adjusted models, compared to never-users, stable dose had a higher risk of the primary outcome (HR 2.42 [95% CI 1.19-4.93], p = 0.015), while dose↑ had the worst prognosis (HR 2.76 [95% CI 1.27-6.03], p = 0.011). Results were similar for the secondary outcome. Compared to patients who remained on LD, discontinuation of LD (143, 24%) was associated with an improved outcome (HR 0.43 [95% CI 0.28-0.65], p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with DCM, LD use and increasing FED are powerful markers of adverse outcomes. Patients who never receive LD have an excellent prognosis. Among 1131 DCM patients 65% received loop diuretics at enrolment (upper left side). The bar chart on the upper right side shows the categorization in never-users/ dose↓/stable dose/ dose↑ over 24 months of follow-up. At the bottom is reported on the left side of each panel (observation period) the trajectory of LD dose in the four groups (left panel) and in patients who have their LD suspended vs those who continue LD (right panel) in the first two years. On the right side of each panel is shown the incidence of primary outcomes during the subsequent follow-up in the subgroups (outcome assessment).

Using marginal structural joint models to estimate the effect of a time-varying treatment on recurrent events and survival: An application on arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy.

In many clinical applications to evaluate the effect of a treatment, randomized control trials are difficult to carry out. On the other hand, clinical observational registries are often available and they contain longitudinal data regarding clinical parameters, drug therapies, and outcomes. In the past, much research has addressed causal methods to estimate treatment effects from observational studies. In the context of time-varying treatments, marginal structural models are often used. However, most analyses have focused on binary outcomes or time-to-the-first event analyses. The novelty of our approach is to combine the marginal structural methodology with the case where correlated recurrent events and survival are the outcomes of interest. Our work focuses on solving the nontrivial problem of defining the measures of effect, specifying the model for the time-dependent weights and the model to estimate the outcome, implementing them, and finally estimating the final treatment effects in this life-history setting. Our approach provides a strategy that allows obtaining treatment effect estimates both on the recurrent events and the survival with a clear causal and clinical interpretation. At the same time, the strategy we propose is based on flexible modeling choices such as the use of joint models to capture the correlation within events from the same subject and the specification of time-dependent treatment effects. The clinical problem which motivated our work is the evaluation of the treatment effect of beta-blockers in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC/D), and the dataset comes from the Trieste Heart Muscle Disease Registry.

Sex differences in natural history of cardiovascular magnetic resonance- and biopsy-proven lymphocytic myocarditis.

AIMS: The role of sex in determining the profile and the outcomes of patients with myocarditis is largely unexplored. We evaluated the impact of sex as a modifier factor in the clinical characterization and natural history of patients with definite diagnosis of myocarditis. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively analysed a single-centre cohort of consecutive patients with definite diagnosis of myocarditis (i.e. endomyocardial biopsy or cardiac magnetic resonance proven). Specific sub-analyses were performed in cohorts of patients with chest pain, ventricular arrhythmias, and heart failure as different main symptoms at presentation. The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause mortality or heart transplantation (HTx). We included 312 patients, of which 211, 68% of the whole population, were males. Despite no clinically relevant differences found at baseline presentation, males had a higher indexed left ventricular end-diastolic volume (62 ± 23 mL/m2 vs. 52 ± 20 mL/m2, P = 0.011 in males vs. females, respectively) at follow-up evaluation. At a median follow-up of 72 months, 36 (17%) males vs. 8 (8%) females experienced death or HTx (P = 0.033). Male sex emerged as predictors of all-cause mortality or HTx in every combination of covariates (HR 2.600; 1.163-5.809; P = 0.020). Results were agreeable regardless of the main symptom of presentation. CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of patients with definite diagnosis of myocarditis, females experienced a more favourable long-term prognosis than males, despite a similar clinical profile at presentation.

Clinical characterization and natural history of chemotherapy-induced dilated cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Chemotherapy-induced dilated cardiomyopathy (CI-DCM) is a well-recognized phenotype of non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), characterized by poor outcomes. However, a detailed comparison between idiopathic DCM (iDCM) and CI-DCM is still lacking. METHODS AND RESULTS: All consecutive DCM patients enrolled in the Trieste Muscle Heart Disease Registry were analysed. CI-DCM and iDCM were defined according to current recommendations. The primary study outcome measure was all-mortality death and secondary outcomes were a) a composite of cardiovascular death/heart-transplantation/ventricular-assist-device implantation, and b) major ventricular arrhythmias. The study included 551 patients (499 iDCM and 52 CI-DCM). At enrolment, compared with iDCM, CI-DCM patients were older (51 ± 14 years vs. 58 ± 3 years, respectively, P < 0.001) and had a higher left ventricular ejection fraction (32% ± 9 vs. 35% ± 10, respectively, P = 0.03). Over a median follow-up of 90 months (IQR 54-140 months), CI-DCM patients had a higher incidence of all-cause mortality compared with iDCM (36.5% vs. 8.4% in CI-DCM and iDCM respectively, P < 0.001), while the incidence of major ventricular arrhythmias was higher in the iDCM group compared with CI-DCM (4% vs. 0%, in CI-DCM and iDCM respectively, P = 0.03). The risk of the composite outcome was comparable between the two groups (P = 0.91). At Cox multivariable analysis, the diagnosis of CI-DCM emerged as independently associated to primary outcome (HR 6.42, 95% C.I. 2.52-16.31, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a well-selected DCM cohort, patients with a chemotherapy-induced aetiology had a higher incidence of all-cause mortality compared with iDCM. Conversely, the incidence of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmic events was higher among patients with iDCM.

Incidence and risk factors for pacemaker implantation in light-chain and transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis.

AIMS: The incidence and risk factors of pacemaker (PM) implantation in patients with cardiac amyloidosis (CA) are largely unexplored. We sought to characterize the trends in the incidence of permanent PM and to identify baseline predictors of future PM implantation in light-chain (AL) and transthyretin (ATTR) CA. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive patients with AL and ATTR-CA diagnosed at participating centres (2017-2020) were included. Clinical data recorded within ±1 month from diagnosis were collected from electronic medical records. The primary study outcome was the need for clinically-indicated PM implantation. Patients with PM (n = 41) and/or permanent defibrillator in situ (n = 13) at CA diagnosis were excluded. The study population consisted of 405 patients: 29.4% AL, 14.6% variant ATTR and 56% wild-type ATTR; 82.5% were male, median age 76 years. During a median follow-up of 33 months (interquartile range 21-46), 36 (8.9%) patients experienced the primary outcome: 10 AL-CA, 2 variant ATTR-CA and 24 wild-type ATTR-CA (p = 0.08 at time-to-event analysis). At multivariable analysis, history of atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio [HR] 3.80, p = 0.002), PR interval (HR 1.013, p = 0.002) and QRS >120 ms (HR 4.7, p = 0.001) on baseline electrocardiogram were independently associated with PM implantation. The absence of these three factors had a negative predictive value of 92% with an area under the curve of 91.8% at 6 months. CONCLUSION: In a large cohort of AL and ATTR-CA patients, 8.9% received a PM within 3 years after diagnosis. History of atrial fibrillation, PR >200 ms and QRS >120 ms predicted future PM implantation.

Global longitudinal strain by CMR improves prognostic stratification in acute myocarditis presenting with normal LVEF.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic stratification of acute myocarditis (AM) presenting with normal left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) relies mostly on late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) characterization. Left ventricular peak global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS) measured by feature tracking analysis might improve prognostication of AM presenting with normal LVEF. METHODS: Data of patients undergoing cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) for clinically suspected AM in seven European Centres (2013-2020) were retrospectively analysed. Patients with AM confirmed by CMR and LVEF ≥50% were included. LGE was visually characterized: localized versus. non-localized, subepicardial versus midwall. LV-GLS was measured by dedicated software. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of an adverse cardiovascular event (ACE) including cardiac death, life-threatening arrhythmias, development of heart failure or of LVEF <50%. RESULTS: Of 389 screened patients, 256 (66%) fulfilled inclusion criteria: median age 36 years, 71% males, median LVEF 60%, median LV-GLS -17.3%. CMR was performed at 4 days from hospitalization. At 27 months, 24 (9%) patients experienced ≥1 ACE (71% developed LVEF <50%). Compared to the others, they had lower median LV-GLS values (-13.9% vs. -17.5%, p = .001). At Kaplan-Meier analysis, impaired LV-GLS (both considered as > -20% or quartiles), non-localized and midwall LGE were associated with ACEs. Patients with LV-GLS ≤-20% did not experience ACEs. LV-GLS remained associated with ACEs after adjustment for non-localized and midwall LGE. CONCLUSION: In AM presenting with LVEF ≥50%, LV-GLS provides independent prognostic value over LGE characterization, improving risk stratification and representing a rationale for further studies of therapy in this cohort.

Longitudinal Arrhythmic Risk Assessment Based on Ejection Fraction in Patients with Recent-Onset Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Practice guidelines suggest the use of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators in patients with left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEF) ≤ 35% despite 3 to 6 months of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT). It remains unclear whether this strategy is appropriate for patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), who can experience reverse ventricular remodeling for up to 24 months after the initiation of GDMT. The aim of this study was to assess the longitudinal dynamic relationship between LVEF ≤ 35% and arrhythmic risk in patients with recent-onset nonischemic DCM on GDMT. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted among patients with recent-onset DCM (≤6 months) and recent initiation of GDMT (≤3 months) consecutively enrolled in a longitudinal registry. Risk for major ventricular arrhythmic events or sudden cardiac death was assessed in relationship to LVEF ≤ 35% at enrollment and 6 and 24 months after initiation of GDMT. RESULTS: Five hundred forty-four patients met the inclusion criteria. LVEF ≤ 35% identified patients with increased risk for major ventricular arrhythmic events or sudden cardiac death starting from 24 months after initiation of GDMT (hazard ratio, 2.126; 95% CI, 1.065-4.245; P = .03). However, LVEF ≤ 35% at presentation or 6 months after enrollment did not have prognostic significance. Sixty-seven percent of 131 patients with LVEF ≤ 35% at 6 months after initiation of GDMT had improved LVEFs (to >35%) by 24 months. This late LVEF improvement correlated with lower arrhythmic risk (P = .012) and was preceded by a reduction of LV dimensions in the first 6 months of GDMT. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with DCM, the present findings suggest that risk stratification for major ventricular arrhythmic events or sudden cardiac death on the basis of LVEF ≤ 35% is effective after 2 years of GDMT, but not after 6 months. In selected patients with DCM, it would be appropriate to wait 24 months before primary prevention ICD implantation.

The Role of Mid-Regional Proadrenomedullin in the Differential Diagnosis between Culture-Negative and Culture-Positive Sepsis at Emergency Department Admission.

BACKGROUND: The host response in culture-negative sepsis (CnS) has been marginally explored upon emergency department (ED) admission. It would be of paramount importance to create a clinical prediction rule to support the emergency department physician in identifying septic patients who can be treated with antibiotics immediately without waiting time to draw cultures if they are unlikely to provide useful diagnostic information. METHODS: A multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to identify the independent clinical variables and serum biomarkers of the culture-negative status among 773 undifferentiated septic patients. Those predictors were combined to build a nomogram predictive of CnS. RESULTS: The serum concentrations of six biomarkers, among the eight biomarkers assayed in this study, were significantly lower in the patients with CnS (449) than in those with culture-positive sepsis (324). After correction for co-variates, only mid-regional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) was found to be independently correlated with culture-negative status. Absence of diabetes, hemoglobin concentrations, and respiratory source of infection were the other independent clinical variables integrated into the nomogram-its sensitivity and specificity for CnS were 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Low concentrations of MR-proADM were independently associated with culture-negative sepsis. Our nomogram, based on the MR-proADM levels, did not predict culture-negative status with reasonable certainty in patients with a definitive diagnosis of sepsis at ED admission.