What explains the high island endemicity of Philippine Rafflesia? A species distribution modeling analysis of three threatened parasitic plant species and their hosts.

PREMISE: Rafflesia are rare holoparasitic plants. In the Philippines, all but one species are found only on single islands. This study aimed to better understand the factors contributing to this distributional pattern. Specifically, we sought to determine whether narrow environmental tolerances of host and/or parasite species might explain their island endemicity. METHODS: We used Maxent species distribution modeling to identify areas with suitable habitat for R. lagascae, R. lobata, and R. speciosa and their Tetrastigma host species. These analyses were carried out for current climate conditions and two future climate change scenarios. RESULTS: Although species distribution models indicated suitable environmental conditions for the Tetrastigma host species in many parts of the Philippines, considerably fewer areas were inferred to have suitable conditions for the three Rafflesia species. Some of these areas are on islands from which they have not been reported. All three species will face significant threats as a result of climate change. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that limited inter-island dispersibility and/or specific environmental requirements are likely responsible for the current pattern of island endemicity of the three Rafflesia species, rather than environmental requirements of their Tetrastigma host species.

Global models and predictions of plant diversity based on advanced machine learning techniques.

Despite the paramount role of plant diversity for ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and human welfare, knowledge of its global distribution is still incomplete, hampering basic research and biodiversity conservation. Here, we used machine learning (random forests, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks) and conventional statistical methods (generalized linear models and generalized additive models) to test environment-related hypotheses of broad-scale vascular plant diversity gradients and to model and predict species richness and phylogenetic richness worldwide. To this end, we used 830 regional plant inventories including c. 300 000 species and predictors of past and present environmental conditions. Machine learning showed a superior performance, explaining up to 80.9% of species richness and 83.3% of phylogenetic richness, illustrating the great potential of such techniques for disentangling complex and interacting associations between the environment and plant diversity. Current climate and environmental heterogeneity emerged as the primary drivers, while past environmental conditions left only small but detectable imprints on plant diversity. Finally, we combined predictions from multiple modeling techniques (ensemble predictions) to reveal global patterns and centers of plant diversity at multiple resolutions down to 7774 km2 . Our predictive maps provide accurate estimates of global plant diversity available at grain sizes relevant for conservation and macroecology.

A phylogenetic and biogeographic study of Rafflesia (Rafflesiaceae) in the Philippines: Limited dispersal and high island endemism.

Rafflesia (Rafflesiaceae) is a small endo-holoparasitic Asian plant genus known for its exceptionally large flowers, rare species, and high island endemism. In this study, phylogenetic (parsimony and Bayesian inference) and biogeographic (BioGeoBEARS) analyses of DNA sequence data (atp6 and matR genes, and nad1 B-C intron from the mitochondrial genome, and the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) were used to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships among 12 of the 13 known Philippine Rafflesia species and to determine the timing and pathways of their diversification. The results of these analyses confirm those of previous Rafflesia studies (which were largely focused on non-Philippine species) in finding pronounced biogeographic patterns. They suggest that dispersal between islands has been relatively uncommon, and indicate that the high island endemism of Rafflesia is a result of poor inter-island dispersal abilities. The results further suggest that its ancestral range might have been in Borneo, and that its lineages and species evolved earlier and more gradually than previously assumed.

The Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database.

This dataset provides the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database, version 1.2. GloNAF represents a data compendium on the occurrence and identity of naturalized alien vascular plant taxa across geographic regions (e.g. countries, states, provinces, districts, islands) around the globe. The dataset includes 13,939 taxa and covers 1,029 regions (including 381 islands). The dataset is based on 210 data sources. For each taxon-by-region combination, we provide information on whether the taxon is considered to be naturalized in the specific region (i.e. has established self-sustaining populations in the wild). Non-native taxa are marked as "alien", when it is not clear whether they are naturalized. To facilitate alignment with other plant databases, we provide for each taxon the name as given in the original data source and the standardized taxon and family names used by The Plant List Version 1.1 (http://www.theplantlist.org/). We provide an ESRI shapefile including polygons for each region and information on whether it is an island or a mainland region, the country and the Taxonomic Databases Working Group (TDWG) regions it is part of (TDWG levels 1-4). We also provide several variables that can be used to filter the data according to quality and completeness of alien taxon lists, which vary among the combinations of regions and data sources. A previous version of the GloNAF dataset (version 1.1) has already been used in several studies on, for example, historical spatial flows of taxa between continents and geographical patterns and determinants of naturalization across different taxonomic groups. We intend the updated and expanded GloNAF version presented here to be a global resource useful for studying plant invasions and changes in biodiversity from regional to global scales. We release these data into the public domain under a Creative Commons Zero license waiver (https://creativecommons.org/share-your-work/public-domain/cc0/). When you use the data in your publication, we request that you cite this data paper. If GloNAF is a major part of the data analyzed in your study, you should consider inviting the GloNAF core team (see Metadata S1: Originators in the Overall project description) as collaborators. If you plan to use the GloNAF dataset, we encourage you to contact the GloNAF core team to check whether there have been recent updates of the dataset, and whether similar analyses are already ongoing.

Global exchange and accumulation of non-native plants.

All around the globe, humans have greatly altered the abiotic and biotic environment with ever-increasing speed. One defining feature of the Anthropocene epoch is the erosion of biogeographical barriers by human-mediated dispersal of species into new regions, where they can naturalize and cause ecological, economic and social damage. So far, no comprehensive analysis of the global accumulation and exchange of alien plant species between continents has been performed, primarily because of a lack of data. Here we bridge this knowledge gap by using a unique global database on the occurrences of naturalized alien plant species in 481 mainland and 362 island regions. In total, 13,168 plant species, corresponding to 3.9% of the extant global vascular flora, or approximately the size of the native European flora, have become naturalized somewhere on the globe as a result of human activity. North America has accumulated the largest number of naturalized species, whereas the Pacific Islands show the fastest increase in species numbers with respect to their land area. Continents in the Northern Hemisphere have been the major donors of naturalized alien species to all other continents. Our results quantify for the first time the extent of plant naturalizations worldwide, and illustrate the urgent need for globally integrated efforts to control, manage and understand the spread of alien species.

The genetic ghost of an invasion past: colonization and extinction revealed by historical hybridization in Senecio.

Hybridization is an important evolutionary factor in the diversification of many plant and animal species. Of particular interest is that historical hybridization resulting in the origin of new species or introgressants has occurred between species now geographically separated by great distances. Here, we report that Senecio massaicus, a tetraploid species native to Morocco and the Canary Islands, contains genetic material of two distinct, geographically separated lineages: a Mediterranean lineage and a mainly southern African lineage. A time-calibrated internal transcribed spacer phylogeny indicates that the hybridization event took place up to 6.18 Ma. Because the southern African lineage has never been recorded from Morocco or the Canary Islands, we hypothesize that it reached this area in the distant past, but never became permanently established. Interestingly, the southern African lineage includes S. inaequidens, a highly invasive species that has recently become widespread throughout Europe and was introduced at the end of the 19th century as a 'wool alien'. Our results suggest that this more recent invasion of Europe by S. inaequidens represents the second arrival of this lineage into the region.