Borrowing information across patient subgroups in clinical trials, with application to a paediatric trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trial investigators may need to evaluate treatment effects in a specific subgroup (or subgroups) of participants in addition to reporting results of the entire study population. Such subgroups lack power to detect a treatment effect, but there may be strong justification for borrowing information from a larger patient group within the same trial, while allowing for differences between populations. Our aim was to develop methods for eliciting expert opinions about differences in treatment effect between patient populations, and to incorporate these opinions into a Bayesian analysis. METHODS: We used an interaction parameter to model the relationship between underlying treatment effects in two subgroups. Elicitation was used to obtain clinical opinions on the likely values of the interaction parameter, since this parameter is poorly informed by the data. Feedback was provided to experts to communicate how uncertainty about the interaction parameter corresponds with relative weights allocated to subgroups in the Bayesian analysis. The impact on the planned analysis was then determined. RESULTS: The methods were applied to an ongoing non-inferiority trial designed to compare antiretroviral therapy regimens in 707 children living with HIV and weighing ≥ 14 kg, with an additional group of 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg in whom the treatment effect will be estimated separately. Expert clinical opinion was elicited and demonstrated that substantial borrowing is supported. Clinical experts chose on average to allocate a relative weight of 78% (reduced from 90% based on sample size) to data from children weighing ≥ 14 kg in a Bayesian analysis of the children weighing < 14 kg. The total effective sample size in the Bayesian analysis was 386 children, providing 84% predictive power to exclude a difference of more than 10% between arms, whereas the 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg provided only 20% power in a standalone frequentist analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Borrowing information from a larger subgroup or subgroups can facilitate estimation of treatment effects in small subgroups within a clinical trial, leading to improved power and precision. Informative prior distributions for interaction parameters are required to inform the degree of borrowing and can be informed by expert opinion. We demonstrated accessible methods for obtaining opinions.

ODYSSEY clinical trial design: a randomised global study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children, with nested pharmacokinetic sub-studies to evaluate pragmatic WHO-weight-band based dolutegravir dosing.

BACKGROUND: Dolutegravir (DTG)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) is highly effective and well-tolerated in adults and is rapidly being adopted globally. We describe the design of the ODYSSEY trial which evaluates the efficacy and safety of DTG-based ART compared with standard-of-care in children and adolescents. The ODYSSEY trial includes nested pharmacokinetic (PK) sub-studies which evaluated pragmatic World Health Organization (WHO) weight-band-based DTG dosing and opened recruitment to children < 14 kg while dosing was in development. METHODS: ODYSSEY (Once-daily DTG based ART in Young people vS. Standard thErapY) is an open-label, randomised, non-inferiority, basket trial comparing the efficacy and safety of DTG + 2 nucleos(t) ides (NRTIs) versus standard-of-care (SOC) in HIV-infected children < 18 years starting first-line ART (ODYSSEY A) or switching to second-line ART (ODYSSEY B). The primary endpoint is clinical or virological failure by 96 weeks. RESULTS: Between September 2016 and June 2018, 707 children weighing ≥14 kg were enrolled; including 311 ART-naïve children and 396 children starting second-line. 47% of children were enrolled in Uganda, 21% Zimbabwe, 20% South Africa, 9% Thailand, 4% Europe. 362 (51%) participants were male; median age [range] at enrolment was 12.2 years [2.9-18.0]. 82 (12%) children weighed 14 to < 20 kg, 135 (19%) 20 to < 25 kg, 206 (29%) 25 to < 35 kg, 284 (40%) ≥35 kg. 128 (18%) had WHO stage 3 and 60 (8%) WHO stage 4 disease. Challenges encountered include: (i) running the trial across high- to low-income countries with differing frequencies of standard-of-care viral load monitoring; (ii) evaluating pragmatic DTG dosing in PK sub-studies alongside FDA- and EMA-approved dosing and subsequently transitioning participants to new recommended doses; (iii) delays in dosing information for children weighing 3 to < 14 kg and rapid recruitment of ART-naïve older/heavier children, which led to capping recruitment of participants weighing ≥35 kg in ODYSSEY A and extending recruitment (above 700) to allow for ≥60 additional children weighing between 3 to < 14 kg with associated PK; (iv) a safety alert associated with DTG use during pregnancy, which required a review of the safety plan for adolescent girls. CONCLUSIONS: By employing a basket design, to include ART-naïve and -experienced children, and nested PK sub-studies, the ODYSSEY trial efficiently evaluates multiple scientific questions regarding dosing and effectiveness of DTG-based ART in children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT, NCT02259127 , registered 7th October 2014; EUDRACT, 2014-002632-14, registered 18th June 2014 ( https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2014-002632-14/ES ); ISRCTN, ISRCTN91737921 , registered 4th October 2014.

Growth, immune and viral responses in HIV infected African children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Scale up of paediatric antiretroviral therapy in resource limited settings continues despite limited access to routine laboratory monitoring. We documented the weight and height responses in HIV infected Ugandan children on highly active antiretroviral therapy and determined clinical factors associated with successful treatment outcomes. METHODS: A prospective cohort of HIV infected children were initiated on HAART and followed for 48 weeks. Body mass index for age z scores(BAZ), weight and height-for-age z scores (WAZ & HAZ) were calculated: CD4 cell % and HIV-1 RNA were measured at baseline and every 12 weeks. Treatment outcomes were classified according to; both virological and immunological success (VS/IS), virological failure and immunological success (VF/IS). virological success and immunological failure (VS/IF) and both virological and immunological failure (VF/IF). RESULTS: From March 2004 until May 2006, 124 HIV infected children were initiated on HAART. The median age (IQR) was 5.0 years (2.1 - 7.0) and 49% (61/124) were female. The median [95% confidence interval (CI)] BAZ, WAZ and HAZ at baseline were 0.29 (-2.9, -1.2), -1.2 (-2.1, -0.5) and -2.06 (-2.9, -1.2) respectively. Baseline median CD4 cell % and log10 HIV-1 RNA were; 11.8% (7.5-18.0) and 5.6 (5.2-5.8) copies/ml. By 48 weeks, mean WAZ and HAZ in the VF/IS group, which was younger, increased from - 0.98 (SD 1.7) to + 1.22 (SD 1.2) and from -1.99 (1.7) to + 0.76 (2.4) respectively. Mean increase in WAZ and HAZ in the VS/IF group, an older group was modest, from -1.84 (1.3) to - 0.41 (1.2) and -2.25 (1.2) to -1.16 (1.3) respectively. Baseline CD4 cell % [OR 6.97 95% CI (2.6 -18.6)], age [OR 4.6 95% CI (1.14 -19.1)] and WHO clinical stage [OR 3.5 95%CI (1.05 -12.7)] were associated with successful treatment outcome. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infected Ugandan children demonstrated a robust increase in height and weight z scores during the first 48 weeks of HAART, including those who failed to completely suppress virus. Older children initiating HAART with severe immune suppression were less likely to achieve a successful treatment outcome. These data emphasize the importance of initiating HAART early to ensure adequate immune and growth responses.