Advances in fetal and neonatal neuroimaging and everyday exposures.

The complex, tightly regulated process of prenatal brain development may be adversely affected by "everyday exposures" such as stress and environmental pollutants. Researchers are only just beginning to understand the neural sequelae of such exposures, with advances in fetal and neonatal neuroimaging elucidating structural, microstructural, and functional correlates in the developing brain. This narrative review discusses the wide-ranging literature investigating the influence of parental stress on fetal and neonatal brain development as well as emerging literature assessing the impact of exposure to environmental toxicants such as lead and air pollution. These 'everyday exposures' can co-occur with other stressors such as social and financial deprivation, and therefore we include a brief discussion of neuroimaging studies assessing the effect of social disadvantage. Increased exposure to prenatal stressors is associated with alterations in the brain structure, microstructure and function, with some evidence these associations are moderated by factors such as infant sex. However, most studies examine only single exposures and the literature on the relationship between in utero exposure to pollutants and fetal or neonatal brain development is sparse. Large cohort studies are required that include evaluation of multiple co-occurring exposures in order to fully characterize their impact on early brain development. IMPACT: Increased prenatal exposure to parental stress and is associated with altered functional, macro and microstructural fetal and neonatal brain development. Exposure to air pollution and lead may also alter brain development in the fetal and neonatal period. Further research is needed to investigate the effect of multiple co-occurring exposures, including stress, environmental toxicants, and socioeconomic deprivation on early brain development.

Susceptibility of hypertensive individuals to acute blood pressure increases in response to personal-level environmental temperature decrease.

BACKGROUND: Environmental temperature is negatively associated with blood pressure (BP), and hypertension may exacerbate this association. The aim of this study is to investigate whether hypertensive individuals are more susceptible to acute BP increases following temperature decrease than non-hypertensive individuals. METHODS: The study panel consisted of 126 hypertensive and 125 non-hypertensive (n = 251) elderly participants who completed 940 clinical visits during the winter of 2016 and summer of 2017 in Beijing, China. Personal-level environmental temperature (PET) was continuously monitored for each participant with a portable sensor platform. We associated systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) with the average PET over 24 h before clinical visits using linear mixed-effects models and explored hourly lag patterns for the associations using distributed lag models. RESULTS: We found that per 1 °C decrease in PET, hypertensive individuals showed an average (95 % confidence interval) increase of 0.96 (0.72, 1.19) and 0.28 (0.13, 0.42) mmHg for SBP and DBP, respectively; and non-hypertensive participants showed significantly smaller increases of 0.28 (0.03, 0.53) mmHg SBP and 0.14 (-0.01, 0.30) mmHg DBP. A lag pattern analysis showed that for hypertensive individuals, the increases in SBP and DBP were greatest following lag 1 h PET decrease and gradually attenuated up to lag 10 h exposure. No significant BP change was observed in non-hypertensive individuals associated with lag 1-24 h PET exposure. The enhanced increase in PET-associated BP in hypertensive participants (i.e., susceptibility) was more significant in winter than in summer. CONCLUSIONS: We found that a decrease in environmental temperature was associated with acute BP increases and these associations diminished over time, disappearing after approximately 10 hours. This implies that any intervention measures to prevent BP increases due to temperature drop should be implemented as soon as possible. Such timely interventions are particularly needed for hypertensive individuals especially during the cold season due to their increased susceptibility.

Prenatal exposure to air pollution is associated with structural changes in the neonatal brain.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to air pollution is associated with adverse neurologic consequences in childhood. However, the relationship between in utero exposure to air pollution and neonatal brain development is unclear. METHODS: We modelled maternal exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) at postcode level between date of conception to date of birth and studied the effect of prenatal air pollution exposure on neonatal brain morphology in 469 (207 male) healthy neonates, with gestational age of ≥36 weeks. Infants underwent MR neuroimaging at 3 Tesla at 41.29 (36.71-45.14) weeks post-menstrual age (PMA) as part of the developing human connectome project (dHCP). Single pollutant linear regression and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) were performed to assess the relationship between air pollution and brain morphology, adjusting for confounders and correcting for false discovery rate. RESULTS: Higher exposure to PM10 and lower exposure to NO2 was strongly canonically correlated to a larger relative ventricular volume, and moderately associated with larger relative size of the cerebellum. Modest associations were detected with higher exposure to PM10 and lower exposure to NO2 and smaller relative cortical grey matter and amygdala and hippocampus, and larger relaive brainstem and extracerebral CSF volume. No associations were found with white matter or deep grey nuclei volume. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that prenatal exposure to air pollution is associated with altered brain morphometry in the neonatal period, albeit with opposing results for NO2 and PM10. This finding provides further evidence that reducing levels of maternal exposure to particulate matter during pregnancy should be a public health priority and highlights the importance of understanding the impacts of air pollution on this critical development window.

The Role of Physical Activity in Cancer Recovery: An Exercise Practitioner's Perspective.

Less than 20% of cancer patients meet the recommended physical activity (PA) guidelines, partially due to poor knowledge and enforcement/encouragement amongst health-care professionals (HCPs). The primary aim of this study was to explore the perceptions of exercise practitioners on the role of PA and the physiological and psychological benefits to recovering cancer patients; the secondary aim was to understand the barriers and facilitators of promoting PA to cancer survivors. The third aim was to, seek the perspectives on the effectiveness of referral systems between the hospitals and PA structures. A purposive sample of five exercise practitioners' (four male and one female) with experience with cancer patients participated in a semi-structured interview (45-60 min). Interviews addressed five key topics: intervention procedures, patient well-being, patient education on PA, effectiveness of referrals from hospitals, and post-intervention PA. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed via thematic analysis. The participants believed that recovering cancer patients possess a knowledge of the physiological benefits of PA, yet psychological understanding remains unknown. Social environments are key to participation in PA and most HCPs lacked knowledge/awareness of the benefits of engaging in PA. There is a need to improve HCPs knowledge of the benefits of PA, whilst providing standardised training on how PA can improve cancer patients' outcomes.

Difference in ambient-personal exposure to PM2.5 and its inflammatory effect in local residents in urban and peri-urban Beijing, China: results of the AIRLESS project.

Measurement of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is often used as a proxy of personal exposure in epidemiological studies. However, the difference between personal and ambient exposure, and whether it biases the estimates of health effects remain unknown. Based on an epidemiological study (AIRLESS) and simultaneously launched intensive monitoring campaigns (APHH), we quantified and compared the personal and ambient exposure to PM2.5 and the related health impact among residents in Beijing, China. In total, 123 urban and 128 peri-urban non-smoking participants were recruited from two well-established cohorts in Beijing. During winter 2016 and summer 2017, each participant was instructed to carry a validated personal air monitor (PAM) to measure PM2.5 concentration at high spatiotemporal resolution for seven consecutive days in each season. Multiple inflammatory biomarkers were measured, including exhaled NO, blood monocytes counts and C-reactive protein. Linear mixed-effect models were used for the associations between exposure and health outcomes with adjustment for confounders. The average level of daily personal exposure to PM2.5 was consistently lower than using corresponding ambient concentration, and the difference is greater during the winter. The personal to ambient (P/A) ratio of exposure to PM2.5 exhibited an exponentially declining trend, and showed larger variations when ambient PM2.5 levels < 25 µg m-3. Personal exposure to PM2.5 was significantly associated with the increase in respiratory and systemic inflammatory biomarkers; however, the associations were weaker or became insignificant when ambient concentrations were used. Exposure to ambient PM2.5 might not be a good proxy to estimate the health effect of exposure to personal PM2.5.

Using low-cost sensor technologies and advanced computational methods to improve dose estimations in health panel studies: results of the AIRLESS project.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution epidemiology has primarily relied on fixed outdoor air quality monitoring networks and static populations. METHODS: Taking advantage of recent advancements in sensor technologies and computational techniques, this paper presents a novel methodological approach that improves dose estimations of multiple air pollutants in large-scale health studies. We show the results of an intensive field campaign that measured personal exposures to gaseous pollutants and particulate matter of a health panel of 251 participants residing in urban and peri-urban Beijing with 60 personal air quality monitors (PAMs). Outdoor air pollution measurements were collected in monitoring stations close to the participants' residential addresses. Based on parameters collected with the PAMs, we developed an advanced computational model that automatically classified time-activity-location patterns of each individual during daily life at high spatial and temporal resolution. RESULTS: Applying this methodological approach in two established cohorts, we found substantial differences between doses estimated from outdoor and personal air quality measurements. The PAM measurements also significantly reduced the correlation between pollutant species often observed in static outdoor measurements, reducing confounding effects. CONCLUSIONS: Future work will utilise these improved dose estimations to investigate the underlying mechanisms of air pollution on cardio-pulmonary health outcomes using detailed medical biomarkers in a way that has not been possible before.

PM2.5 and NO2 exposure errors using proxy measures, including derived personal exposure from outdoor sources: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The use of proxy exposure estimates for PM2.5 and NO2 in air pollution studies instead of personal exposures, introduces measurement error, which can produce biased epidemiological effect estimates. Most studies consider total personal exposure as the gold standard. However, when studying the effects of ambient air pollution, personal exposure from outdoor sources is the exposure of interest. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the magnitude and variability of exposure measurement error by conducting a systematic review of the differences between personal exposures from outdoor sources and the corresponding measurements for ambient concentrations in order to increase understanding of the measurement error structures of the pollutants. DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We reviewed the literature (ISI Web of Science, Medline, 2000-2016) for English language studies (in any age group in any location (NO2) or Europe and North America (PM2.5)) that reported repeated measurements over time both for personal and ambient PM2.5 or NO2 concentrations. Only a few studies reported personal exposure from outdoor sources. We also collected data for infiltration factors and time-activity patterns of the individuals in order to estimate personal exposures from outdoor sources in every study. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Studies using modelled rather than monitored exposures were excluded. Type of personal exposure monitor was assessed. Random effects meta-analysis was conducted to quantify exposure error as the mean difference between "true" and proxy measures. RESULTS: Thirty-two papers for PM2.5 and 24 for NO2 were identified. Outdoor sources were found to contribute 44% (range: 33-55%) of total personal exposure to PM2.5 and 74% (range: 57-88%) to NO2. Overall estimates of personal exposure (24-hour averages) from outdoor sources were 9.3 µg/m3 and 12.0 ppb for PM2.5 and NO2 respectively, while the corresponding difference between these exposures and the ambient concentrations (i.e. the measurement error) was 5.72 µg/m3 and 7.17 ppb. Our findings indicated also higher error variability for NO2 than PM2.5. Large heterogeneity was observed which was not explained sufficiently by geographical location or age group of the study sample. LIMITATIONS, CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS: Relying only on information available in published studies led to some limitations: the contribution of outdoor sources to total personal exposure for NO2 had to be inferred, individual variation in exposure misclassification was unavailable and instrument error could not be addressed. The larger magnitude and variability of errors for NO2 compared with PM2.5 has implications for biases in the health effect estimates of multi-pollutant epidemiological models. Results suggest that further research is needed regarding personal exposure studies and measurement error bias in epidemiological models.

Impact of London's low emission zone on air quality and children's respiratory health: a sequential annual cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Low emission zones (LEZ) are an increasingly common, but unevaluated, intervention aimed at improving urban air quality and public health. We investigated the impact of London's LEZ on air quality and children's respiratory health. METHODS: We did a sequential annual cross-sectional study of 2164 children aged 8-9 years attending primary schools between 2009-10 and 2013-14 in central London, UK, following the introduction of London's LEZ in February, 2008. We examined the association between modelled pollutant exposures of nitrogen oxides (including nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) and particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2·5 µm (PM2·5) and less than 10 µm (PM10) and lung function: postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1, primary outcome), forced vital capacity (FVC), and respiratory or allergic symptoms. We assigned annual exposures by each child's home and school address, as well as spatially resolved estimates for the 3 h (0600-0900 h), 24 h, and 7 days before each child's assessment, to isolate long-term from short-term effects. FINDINGS: The percentage of children living at addresses exceeding the EU limit value for annual NO2 (40 µg/m3) fell from 99% (444/450) in 2009 to 34% (150/441) in 2013. Over this period, we identified a reduction in NO2 at both roadside (median -1·35 µg/m3 per year; 95% CI -2·09 to -0·61; p=0·0004) and background locations (-0·97; -1·56 to -0·38; p=0·0013), but not for PM10. The effect on PM2·5 was equivocal. We found no association between postbronchodilator FEV1 and annual residential pollutant attributions. By contrast, FVC was inversely correlated with annual NO2 (-0·0023 L/µg per m3; -0·0044 to -0·0002; p=0·033) and PM10 (-0·0090 L/µg per m3; -0·0175 to -0·0005; p=0·038). INTERPRETATION: Within London's LEZ, a smaller lung volume in children was associated with higher annual air pollutant exposures. We found no evidence of a reduction in the proportion of children with small lungs over this period, despite small improvements in air quality in highly polluted urban areas during the implementation of London's LEZ. Interventions that deliver larger reductions in emissions might yield improvements in children's health. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas' National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust and King's College London, NHS Hackney, Lee Him donation, and Felicity Wilde Charitable Trust.

London Hybrid Exposure Model: Improving Human Exposure Estimates to NO2 and PM2.5 in an Urban Setting.

Here we describe the development of the London Hybrid Exposure Model (LHEM), which calculates exposure of the Greater London population to outdoor air pollution sources, in-buildings, in-vehicles, and outdoors, using survey data of when and where people spend their time. For comparison and to estimate exposure misclassification we compared Londoners LHEM exposure with exposure at the residential address, a commonly used exposure metric in epidemiological research. In 2011, the mean annual LHEM exposure to outdoor sources was estimated to be 37% lower for PM2.5 and 63% lower for NO2 than at the residential address. These decreased estimates reflect the effects of reduced exposure indoors, the amount of time spent indoors (∼95%), and the mode and duration of travel in London. We find that an individual's exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 outside their residential address is highly correlated (Pearson's R of 0.9). In contrast, LHEM exposure estimates for PM2.5 and NO2 suggest that the degree of correlation is influenced by their exposure in different transport modes. Further development of the LHEM has the potential to increase the understanding of exposure error and bias in time-series and cohort studies and thus better distinguish the independent effects of NO2 and PM2.5.

Air pollution, ethnicity and telomere length in east London schoolchildren: An observational study.

BACKGROUND: Short telomeres are associated with chronic disease and early mortality. Recent studies in adults suggest an association between telomere length and exposure to particulate matter, and that ethnicity may modify the relationship. However associations in children are unknown. OBJECTIVES: We examined associations between air pollution and telomere length in an ethnically diverse group of children exposed to high levels of traffic derived pollutants, particularly diesel exhaust, and to environmental tobacco smoke. METHODS: Oral DNA from 333 children (8-9years) participating in a study on air quality and respiratory health in 23 inner city London schools was analysed for relative telomere length using monochrome multiplex qPCR. Annual, weekly and daily exposures to nitrogen oxides and particulate matter were obtained from urban dispersion models (2008-10) and tobacco smoke by urinary cotinine. Ethnicity was assessed by self-report and continental ancestry by analysis of 28 random genomic markers. We used linear mixed effects models to examine associations with telomere length. RESULTS: Telomere length increased with increasing annual exposure to NOx (model coefficient 0.003, [0.001, 0.005], p<0.001), NO2 (0.009 [0.004, 0.015], p<0.001), PM2.5 (0.041, [0.020, 0.063], p<0.001) and PM10 (0.096, [0.044, 0.149], p<0.001). There was no association with environmental tobacco smoke. Telomere length was increased in children reporting black ethnicity (22% [95% CI 10%, 36%], p<0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Pollution exposure is associated with longer telomeres in children and genetic ancestry is an important determinant of telomere length. Further studies should investigate both short and long-term associations between pollutant exposure and telomeres in childhood and assess underlying mechanisms.

The impact of the congestion charging scheme on air quality in London. Part 1. Emissions modeling and analysis of air pollution measurements.

On February 17, 2003, a congestion charging scheme (CCS*) was introduced in central London along with a program of traffic management measures. The scheme operated Monday through Friday, 7 AM to 6 PM. This program resulted in an 18% reduction in traffic volume and a 30% reduction in traffic congestion in the first year (2003). We developed methods to evaluate the possible effects of the scheme on air quality: We used a temporal-spatial design in which modeled and measured air quality data from roadside and background monitoring stations were used to compare time periods before (2001-2002) and after (2003-2004) the CCS was introduced and to compare the spatial area of the congestion charging zone (CCZ) with the rest of London. In the first part of this project, we modeled changes in concentrations of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and PM10 (particles with a mass median aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm) across the CCZ and in Greater London under different traffic and emission scenarios for the periods before and after CCS introduction. Comparing model results within and outside the zone suggested that introducing the CCS would be associated with a net 0.8-microg/m3 decrease in the mean concentration of PM10 and a net 1.7-ppb decrease in the mean concentration of NOx within the CCZ. In contrast, a net 0.3-ppb increase in the mean concentration of NO2 was predicted within the zone; this was partly explained by an expected increase in primary NO2 emissions due to the introduction of particle traps on diesel buses (one part of the improvements in public transport associated with the CCS). In the second part of the project, we established a CCS Study Database from measurements obtained from the London Air Quality Network (LAQN) for air pollution monitors sited to measure roadside and urban background concentrations. Fully ratified (validated) 15-minute mean carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), NO2, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5 data from each chosen monitoring site for the period from February 17, 2001, to February 16, 2005, were transferred from the LAQN database. In the third part of our project, these data were used to compare geometric means for the 2 years before and the 2 years after the CCS was introduced. Temporal changes within the CCZ were compared with changes, over the same period, at similarly sited (roadside or background) monitors in a control area 8 km distant from the center of the CCZ. The analysis was confined to measurements obtained during the hours and days on which the scheme was in operation and focused on pollutants derived from vehicles (NO, NO2, NOx, PM10, and CO). This set of analyses was based on the limited data available from within the CCZ. When compared with data from outside the zone, we did not find evidence of temporal changes in roadside measurements of NOx, NO, and NO2, nor in urban background concentrations of NOx. (The latter result, however, concealed divergent trends in NO, which fell, and NO2, which rose.) Although based upon fewer stations, there was evidence that background concentrations of PM10 and CO fell within the CCZ compared with outside the zone. We also analyzed the trends in background concentrations for all London monitoring stations; as distance from the center of the CCZ increased, we found some evidence of an increasing gradation in NO and PM10 concentrations before versus after the intervention. This suggests a possible intermediate effect on air quality in the area immediately surrounding the CCZ. Although London is relatively well served with air quality monitoring stations, our study was restricted by the availability of only a few monitoring sites within the CCZ, and only one of those was at a roadside location. The results derived from this single roadside site are not likely to be an adequate basis for evaluating this complex urban traffic management scheme. Our primary approach to assessing the impact of the CCS was to analyze the changes in geometric mean pollutant concentrations in the 2 years before and 2 years after the CCS was introduced and to compare changes at monitoring stations within the CCZ with those in a distant control area (8 km from the CCZ center) unlikely to be influenced by the CCS. We saw this as the most robust analytical approach with which to examine the CCS Study Database, but in the fourth part of the project we did consider three other approaches: ethane as an indicator of pollution dispersion; the cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistical technique; and bivariate polar plots for local emissions. All three were subsequently judged as requiring further development outside of the scope of this study. However, despite their investigative nature, each technique provided useful information supporting the main analyses. The first method used ethane as a dispersion indicator to remove the inherent variability in air pollutant concentrations caused by changes in meteorology and atmospheric dispersion. The technique had the potential to ascertain more accurately the likely impacts of the CCS on London's air quality. Although this novel method appeared promising over short time periods, a number of concerns arose about whether the spatial and temporal variability of ethane over longer time periods would be representative of meteorologic conditions alone. The major strength of CUSUM, the second method, is that it can be used to identify the approximate timing of changes that may have been caused by the CCS. This ability is weakened, however, by the effects of serial correlation (the correlation of data among measurements in successive time intervals) within air pollution data that is caused by seasonality and long-term meteorologic trends. The secure interpretation of CUSUM requires that the technique be adapted to take proper account of the underlying correlation between measurements without the use of smoothing functions that would obscure a stepped change in concentrations. Although CUSUM was not able to provide a quantitative estimation of changes in pollution levels arising from the introduction of the CCS, the strong signals that were identified were considered in the context of other results from the study. The third method, bivariate polar plots, proved useful. The plots revealed important characteristics of the data from the only roadside monitoring site within the CCZ and highlighted the importance of considering prevailing weather conditions when positioning a roadside monitor. The technique would benefit from further development, however, in transforming the qualitative assessment of change into a quantitative assessment and including an estimate of uncertainty. Research is ongoing to develop this method in air-quality time-series studies. Overall, using a range of measurement and modeling approaches, we found evidence of small changes in air quality after introduction of the CCS. These include small decreases in PM10, NO, and CO. The possibility that some of these effects might reflect more general changes in London's air quality is suggested by the findings of somewhat similar changes in geometric means for weekends, when the CCS was not operating. However, since some evidence suggests that the CCS also had an impact on traffic volume on weekends, the CCS remains as one possible explanation for the observed pattern of changes in pollutant concentrations. In addition, the CCS was just one of a number of traffic and emission reduction schemes introduced in London over the 4-year study period; if the other measures had an impact in central London, they might partly explain our findings. Although not the aim of this study, it is important to consider how the trends we observed might be translated into health effects. For example, given that London already has NO2 concentrations in excess of the permitted limit value, we do not know what the effects of an increase in NO2 created by diesel-exhaust after-treatment for particles might mean for health. Further, although it is not likely that NO affects health, the decrease in NO concentrations is likely associated with an increase in ozone concentrations (a pollutant associated with health effects), as has been seen in recent years in London. These and other similar issues require further investigation. Although the CCS is a relatively simple traffic management scheme in the middle of a major urban environment, analyzing its possible impact on air quality was found to be far from straightforward. Using a range of modeling and monitoring approaches to address the impact of the scheme revealed that each technique has its own advantages and limitations. The placement of monitoring sites and the availably of traffic count data were also identified as key issues. The most compelling lesson we take away from this study is that such work is impossible to undertake without a coherent multi-disciplinary team of skilled researchers. In conclusion, our study suggests that the introduction of the CCS in 2003 was associated with small temporal changes in air pollutant concentrations in central London compared with outer areas. However, attributing the cause of these changes to the CCS alone is not appropriate because the scheme was introduced at a time when other traffic and emissions interventions, which might have had a more concentrated effect in central London, were also being implemented.

The impact of the congestion charging scheme on air quality in London. Part 2. Analysis of the oxidative potential of particulate matter.

There is growing scientific consensus that the ability of inhaled particulate matter (PM*) to elicit oxidative stress both at the air-lung interface and systemically might underpin many of the acute and chronic respiratory and cardiovascular responses observed in exposed populations. In the current study (which is part two of a two-part HEI study of a congestion charging scheme [CCS] introduced in London, United Kingdom, in 2003), we tested the hypothesis that the reduction in vehicle numbers and changes in traffic composition resulting from the introduction of the CCS would result in decreased concentrations of traffic-specific emissions, both from vehicle exhaust and other sources (brake wear and tire wear), and an associated reduction in the oxidative potential of PM with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10). To test this hypothesis, we obtained, extracted, and analyzed tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) PM10 filters from six monitoring sites within, bordering, or outside the area of the congestion charging zone (CCZ) for the 3 years before and after the introduction of the scheme. In addition, from January 2005, TEOM PM10 filters were obtained from an additional 10 sites outside the zone in order to perform the first-ever assessment of within-city spatial variability in the oxidative potential of PM10. Although London's PM10 was found to have remarkably high oxidative potential, it varied markedly between the studied sites, with evidence of increased potential at roadside locations compared with urban background locations. This difference appeared to reflect increased concentrations of copper (Cu), barium (Ba), and bioavailable iron (Fe) in PM10 collected at the roadside sites. PM10's oxidative potential after the introduction of the CCS did not change at the one urban background site within the zone. Yet compositional changes in PM10 were noted at the same site, including significant decreases in Cu and zinc (Zn) content, probably reflecting brake and tire wear (compared with increases in these metals at all sites outside the zone in the 3 years since the scheme's introduction). This pattern of results is consistent with observations of increased vehicle use throughout London in recent years and decreases in the number of vehicles entering the zone since the scheme's introduction.

The London low emission zone baseline study.

On February 4, 2008, the world's largest low emission zone (LEZ) was established. At 2644 km2, the zone encompasses most of Greater London. It restricts the entry of the oldest and most polluting diesel vehicles, including heavy-goods vehicles (haulage trucks), buses and coaches, larger vans, and minibuses. It does not apply to cars or motorcycles. The LEZ scheme will introduce increasingly stringent Euro emissions standards over time. The creation of this zone presented a unique opportunity to estimate the effects of a stepwise reduction in vehicle emissions on air quality and health. Before undertaking such an investigation, robust baseline data were gathered on air quality and the oxidative activity and metal content of particulate matter (PM) from air pollution monitors located in Greater London. In addition, methods were developed for using databases of electronic primary-care records in order to evaluate the zone's health effects. Our study began in 2007, using information about the planned restrictions in an agreed-upon LEZ scenario and year-on-year changes in the vehicle fleet in models to predict air pollution concentrations in London for the years 2005, 2008, and 2010. Based on this detailed emissions and air pollution modeling, the areas in London were then identified that were expected to show the greatest changes in air pollution concentrations and population exposures after the implementation of the LEZ. Using these predictions, the best placement of a pollution monitoring network was determined and the feasibility of evaluating the health effects using electronic primary-care records was assessed. To measure baseline pollutant concentrations before the implementation of the LEZ, a comprehensive monitoring network was established close to major roadways and intersections. Output-difference plots from statistical modeling for 2010 indicated seven key areas likely to experience the greatest change in concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (at least 3 microg/m3) and of PM with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10) (at least 0.75 microg/m3) as a result of the LEZ; these suggested that the clearest signals of change were most likely to be measured near roadsides. The seven key areas were also likely to be of importance in carrying out a study to assess the health outcomes of an air quality intervention like the LEZ. Of the seven key areas, two already had monitoring sites with a full complement of equipment, four had monitoring sites that required upgrades of existing equipment, and one required a completely new installation. With the upgrades and new installations in place, fully ratified (verified) pollutant data (for PM10, PM with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 microm [PM2.5], nitrogen oxides [NOx], and ozone [O3] at all sites as well as for particle number, black smoke [BS], carbon monoxide [CO], and sulfur dioxide [SO2] at selected sites) were then collected for analysis. In addition, the seven key monitoring sites were supported by other sites in the London Air Quality Network (LAQN). From these, a robust set of baseline air quality data was produced. Data from automatic and manual traffic counters as well as automatic license-plate recognition cameras were used to compile detailed vehicle profiles. This enabled us to establish more precise associations between ambient pollutant concentrations and vehicle emissions. An additional goal of the study was to collect baseline PM data in order to test the hypothesis that changes in traffic densities and vehicle mixes caused by the LEZ would affect the oxidative potential and metal content of ambient PM10 and PM2.5. The resulting baseline PM data set was the first to describe, in detail, the oxidative potential and metal content of the PM10 and PM2.5 of a major city's airshed. PM in London has considerable oxidative potential; clear differences in this measure were found from site to site, with evidence that the oxidative potential of both PM10 and PM2.5 at roadside monitoring sites was higher than at urban background locations. In the PM10 samples this increased oxidative activity appeared to be associated with increased concentrations of copper (Cu), barium (Ba), and bathophenanthroline disulfonate-mobilized iron (BPS Fe) in the roadside samples. In the PM2.5 samples, no simple association could be seen, suggesting that other unmeasured components were driving the increased oxidative potential in this fraction of the roadside samples. These data suggest that two components were contributing to the oxidative potential of roadside PM, namely Cu and BPS Fe in the coarse fraction of PM (PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microm to 10 microm; PM(2.5-10)) and an unidentified redox catalyst in PM2.5. The data derived for this baseline study confirmed key observations from a more limited spatial mapping exercise published in our earlier HEI report on the introduction of the London's Congestion Charging Scheme (CCS) in 2003 (Kelly et al. 2011a,b). In addition, the data set in the current report provided robust baseline information on the oxidative potential and metal content of PM found in the London airshed in the period before implementation of the LEZ; the finding that a proportion of the oxidative potential appears in the PM coarse mode and is apparently related to brake wear raises important issues regarding the nature of traffic management schemes. The final goal of this baseline study was to establish the feasibility, in ethical and operational terms, of using the U.K.'s electronic primary-care records to evaluate the effects of the LEZ on human health outcomes. Data on consultations and prescriptions were compiled from a pilot group of general practices (13 distributed across London, with 100,000 patients; 29 situated in the inner London Borough of Lambeth, with 200,000 patients). Ethics approvals were obtained to link individual primary-care records to modeled NOx concentrations by means of post-codes. (To preserve anonymity, the postcodes were removed before delivery to the research team.) A wide range of NOx exposures was found across London as well as within and between the practices examined. Although we observed little association between NOx exposure and smoking status, a positive relationship was found between exposure and increased socioeconomic deprivation. The health outcomes we chose to study were asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, wheeze, hay fever, upper and lower respiratory tract infections, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. These outcomes were measured as prevalence or incidence. Their distributions by age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity, and smoking were found to accord with those reported in the epidemiology literature. No cross-sectional positive associations were found between exposure to NOx and any of the studied health outcomes; some associations were significantly negative. After the pilot study, a suitable primary-care database of London patients was identified, the General Practice Research Database responsible for giving us access to these data agreed to collaborate in the evaluation of the LEZ, and an acceptable method of ensuring privacy of the records was agreed upon. The database included about 350,000 patients who had remained at the same address over the four-year period of the study. Power calculations for a controlled longitudinal analysis were then performed, indicating that for outcomes such as consultations for respiratory illnesses or prescriptions for asthma there was sufficient power to identify a 5% to 10% reduction in consultations for patients most exposed to the intervention compared with patients presumed to not be exposed to it. In conclusion, the work undertaken in this study provides a good foundation for future LEZ evaluations. Our extensive monitoring network, measuring a comprehensive set of pollutants (and a range of particle metrics), will continue to provide a valuable tool both for assessing the impact of LEZ regulations on air quality in London and for furthering understanding of the link between PM's composition and toxicity. Finally, we believe that in combination with our modeling of the predicted population-based changes in pollution exposure in London, the use of primary-care databases forms a sound basis and has sufficient statistical power for the evaluation of the potential impact of the LEZ on human health.

Ozone, heat and mortality: acute effects in 15 British conurbations.

BACKGROUND: Acute associations between mortality and ozone are largely accepted, though recent evidence is less conclusive. Evidence on ozone-heat interaction is sparse. We assess effects of ozone, heat, and their interaction, on mortality in Britain. METHODS: Acute effects of summer ozone on mortality were estimated using data from 15 conurbations in England and Wales (May-September, 1993-2003). 2-day means of daily maximum 8-h ozone were entered into case series analyses, controlling for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of <10 µm, natural cubic splines of temperature, and other factors. Heat effects were estimated, comparing adjusted mortality rates at 97.5th and 75th percentiles of 2-day mean temperature. A separate model employed interaction terms to assess whether ozone effects increased on 'hot days' (where 2-day mean temperature exceeded the whole-year 95th percentile). Other heat metrics, and non-linear ozone effects, were also examined. RESULTS: Adverse ozone and heat effects occurred in nearly all conurbations. The mean mortality rate ratio for heat effect across conurbations was 1.071 (1.050-1.093). The mean ozone rate ratio was 1.003 per 10 µg/m(3) ozone increase (95% CI 1.001 to 1.005). On 'hot days' the mean ozone effect reached 1.006 (1.002-1.009) per 10 µg/m(3), though ozone-heat interaction was significant in London only. On substituting maximum for mean temperature, the overall ozone effect reduced to null, though evidence remained of effects on hot days, particularly in London. An estimated ozone effect threshold was below current guidelines in 'mean temperature' models. CONCLUSION: While heat showed robust effects on summer mortality, estimates for ozone depended upon the modelling of temperature. However, there was some evidence that ozone effects were worse on hot days, whichever temperature measure was used.