Spatially explicit predictions of food web structure from regional-level data.

Knowledge about how ecological networks vary across global scales is currently limited given the complexity of acquiring repeated spatial data for species interactions. Yet, recent developments in metawebs highlight efficient ways to first document possible interactions within regional species pools. Downscaling metawebs towards local network predictions is a promising approach to using the current data to investigate the variation of networks across space. However, issues remain in how to represent the spatial variability and uncertainty of species interactions, especially for large-scale food webs. Here, we present a probabilistic framework to downscale a metaweb based on the Canadian mammal metaweb and species occurrences from global databases. We investigated how our approach can be used to represent the variability of networks and communities between ecoregions in Canada. Species richness and interactions followed a similar latitudinal gradient across ecoregions but simultaneously identified contrasting diversity hotspots. Network motifs revealed additional areas of variation in network structure compared with species richness and number of links. Our method offers the potential to bring global predictions down to a more actionable local scale, and increases the diversity of ecological networks that can be projected in space. This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Postdoctoral scientists are mentors, and it is time to recognize their work.

Academia often fails to recognize the important work that supports its functioning, such as mentoring and teaching performed by postdoctoral researchers. This is a particular problem for early-career researchers, but opportunities exist to improve the status quo.

Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou.

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk.

PERFICT: A Re-imagined foundation for predictive ecology.

Making predictions from ecological models-and comparing them to data-offers a coherent approach to evaluate model quality, regardless of model complexity or modelling paradigm. To date, our ability to use predictions for developing, validating, updating, integrating and applying models across scientific disciplines while influencing management decisions, policies, and the public has been hampered by disparate perspectives on prediction and inadequately integrated approaches. We present an updated foundation for Predictive Ecology based on seven principles applied to ecological modelling: make frequent Predictions, Evaluate models, make models Reusable, Freely accessible and Interoperable, built within Continuous workflows that are routinely Tested (PERFICT). We outline some benefits of working with these principles: accelerating science; linking with data science; and improving science-policy integration.

The spatial scaling of food web structure across European biogeographical regions.

The species-area relationship (SAR) is one of the most well-established scaling patterns in ecology. Its implications for understanding how communities change across spatial gradients are numerous, including the effects of habitat loss on biodiversity. However, ecological communities are not mere collections of species. They are the result of interactions between these species forming complex networks that tie them together. Should we aim to grasp the spatial scaling of biodiversity as a whole, it is fundamental to understand the changes in the structure of interaction networks with area. In spite of a few empirical and theoretical studies that address this challenge, we still do not know much about how network structure changes with area, or what are the main environmental drivers of these changes. Here, using the meta-network of potential interactions between all terrestrial vertebrates in Europe (1140 species and 67 201 feeding interactions), we analysed network-area relationships (NARs) that summarize how network properties scale with area. We do this across ten biogeographical regions, which differ in environmental characteristics. We found that the spatial scaling of network complexity strongly varied across biogeographical regions. However, once the variation in SARs was accounted for, differences in the shape of NARs vanished. On the other hand, the proportion of species across trophic levels remained remarkably constant across biogeographical regions and spatial scales, despite the great variation in species richness. Spatial variation in mean annual temperature and habitat clustering were the main environmental determinants of the shape of both SARs and NARs across Europe. Our results suggest new avenues in the exploration of the effects of environmental factors on the spatial scaling of biodiversity. We argue that NARs can provide new insights to analyse and understand ecological communities.

Measuring and mapping the effectiveness of the European Air Quality Directive in reducing N and S deposition at the ecosystem level.

To protect human health and the environment (namely ecosystems), international air quality protocols and guidelines, like the Gothenburg protocol (1999) and the 2001 EU Air Quality Directive (NECD), conveyed national emission ceilings for atmospheric pollutants (Directive 2001/81/EC), including the reduction of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions by 2010. However, to what degree this expected reduction in emissions had reflections at the ecosystem level (i.e. pollutant levels reaching and impacting ecosystems and their organisms) remains unknown. Here, we used lichens as ecological indicators, together with reported air and precipitation pollutant concentrations, to determine and map the consequences of the S and N atmospheric emission's reduction, during the implementation of the 2001 Directive (in 2002 and 2011), due primarily to the industrial-sector. The study area is a mixed-land-use industrialized Mediterranean agroforest ecosystem, in southwest Europe. The reduction of S emissions (2002-2011) was reflected at the ecosystem level, as the same S-declining trend was observed in atmospheric measurement stations and lichens alike (-70%), indicating that most S deposited to the ecosystem had an industrial origin. However, this was not the case for N with a slight N-reduction near industrial facilities, but mostly N-deposition in lichens increased in areas dominated by agricultural land-uses. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of going beyond emissions estimation and modeling, to assess the success of the implementation of the NECD in lowering pollutant accumulation in living organisms and their environment. This can only be achieved by measuring pollutant deposition at the ecosystem level (e.g. living organisms). By doing so, we were able to show that the 2001 NECD was successful in reducing S concentrations from Industry, whereas N remains a challenge. Despite the small reduction in N-emissions, deposition into ecosystems did not reflect these changes as agriculture and transport sectors must reduce NH3 and NOx emissions.

Drought effects on the stability of forest-grassland ecotones under gradual climate change.

Plant communities in forest-grassland ecotones of the European Alps are already suffering from gradual climate change and will likely be exposed to more frequent and intense drought periods in the future. Yet, how gradual climate change and extreme drought will affect the stability of these plant communities is largely unknown. Here, we investigated how drought modulates the effects of gradual climate change on the long-term structural stability of these ecotone communities using a multidimensional approach. Using a spatially explicit landscape vegetation model, we simulated three drought scenarios, on top of gradual changes of climate variables, and their impacts on the dynamics of 24 plant functional groups, distinguishing between forests and grasslands, as well as different land uses. We then used n-dimensional hypervolumes to define community states under the different drought scenarios, and compared them to initial conditions to assess changes in community structural stability. In general, added drought effects did not counteract the long-term consequences of gradual climate changes, although they resulted in quantitatively different effects. Importantly, drought and climate change had non-negligible consequences for taxonomic and functional structure that differed between communities and land-use regimes. For instance, forest taxonomic structure was more overall more stable than grassland's, despite the observed functional shifts towards more warm-adapted species compositions. Conversely, unmanaged grasslands were the least stable, suffering the loss of characteristic alpine species. Also, while frequent and severe drought regimes caused forests to become more variable in time, they had the opposite effect on grasslands. Our results agree with observations of drought- and climate-driven changes in mountain communities of the Alps, and we discuss their relevance for ecosystem management. Importantly, we demonstrate the utility of this multidimensional approach to study community stability for analysing cross-community and cross-disturbance responses to global change.

Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios.

Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by tourism.

Extreme climate events counteract the effects of climate and land-use changes in Alpine treelines.

1. Climate change and extreme events, such as drought, threaten ecosystems worldwide and in particular mountain ecosystems, where species often live at their environmental tolerance limits. In the European Alps, plant communities are also influenced by land-use abandonment leading to woody encroachment of subalpine and alpine grasslands. 2. In this study, we explored how the forest-grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines will respond to gradual climate warming, drought events and land-use change in terms of forest expansion rates, taxonomic diversity and functional composition. We used a previously validated dynamic vegetation model, FATE-HD, parameterised for plant communities in the Ecrins National Park in the French Alps. 3. Our results showed that intense drought counteracted the forest expansion at higher elevations driven by land-use abandonment and climate change, especially when combined with high drought frequency (occurring every 2 or less than 2 years). 4. Furthermore, intense and frequent drought accelerated the rates of taxonomic change and resulted in overall higher taxonomic spatial heterogeneity of the ecotone than would be expected under gradual climate and land-use changes only. 5. Synthesis and applications. The results from our model show that intense and frequent drought counteracts forest expansion driven by climate and land-use changes in the forest-grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines. We argue that land-use planning must consider the effects of extreme events, such as drought, as well as climate and land-use changes, since extreme events might interfere with trends predicted under gradual climate warming and agricultural abandonment.

N-dimensional hypervolumes to study stability of complex ecosystems.

Although our knowledge on the stabilising role of biodiversity and on how it is affected by perturbations has greatly improved, we still lack a comprehensive view on ecosystem stability that is transversal to different habitats and perturbations. Hence, we propose a framework that takes advantage of the multiplicity of components of an ecosystem and their contribution to stability. Ecosystem components can range from species or functional groups, to different functional traits, or even the cover of different habitats in a landscape mosaic. We make use of n-dimensional hypervolumes to define ecosystem states and assess how much they shift after environmental changes have occurred. We demonstrate the value of this framework with a study case on the effects of environmental change on Alpine ecosystems. Our results highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach when studying ecosystem stability and show that our framework is flexible enough to be applied to different types of ecosystem components, which can have important implications for the study of ecosystem stability and transient dynamics.

The effects of graded levels of calorie restriction: IV. Non-linear change in behavioural phenotype of mice in response to short-term calorie restriction.

Animals have to adjust their activities when faced with caloric restriction (CR) to deal with reduced energy intake. If CR is pronounced, allostasis can push individuals into alternate physiological states which can result in important health benefits across a wide range of taxa. Here we developed a new approach to determine the changes in behavioural phenotype associated with different levels of CR. We exposed C57BL/6 male mice to graded CR (from 0 to 40%) for three months and defined their behavioural phenotype using hidden Markov models of their movement and body temperature. All 40% CR mice exhibited a state-shift in behavioural phenotype and only some exposed to 30% CR did. We show for the first time that mice changed their activity characteristics rather than changed their activities. This new phenotyping approach provides an avenue to determine the mechanisms linking CR to healthspan.

Disentangling natural and anthropogenic sources of atmospheric sulfur in an industrial region using biomonitors.

Despite reductions in atmospheric sulfur (S) concentrations due to abatement policies in some countries, modeling the dispersion of this pollutant and disentangling anthropogenic sources from natural ones is still of great concern. Lichens have been used as biomonitors of the impacts of S for over 40 years, but their potential as source-tracers of specific sources, including natural ones, remains unexplored. In fact, few attempts have been made to try to distinguish and spatially model different sources of S using lichens. We have measured S concentrations and isotopic values in lichens within an industrial coastal region where different sources of S, natural and anthropogenic, interplay. We detected a prevailing influence of natural sea-originated S that mixed with anthropogenic sources of S. We were then able to disentangle the sources of S, by removing the ocean influence on S isotopic values, enabling us to model the impact of different anthropogenic sources on S deposition and highlighting the potential use of lichens to evaluate the weight of different types of anthropogenic sources.