Development and validation of the MosquitoWise survey to assess perceptions towards mosquitoes and mosquito-borne viruses in Europe.

Due to climate change and the expanding geographical ranges of key mosquito species, several mosquito-borne viruses (MBVs) have recently emerged in Europe. Understanding people's perceptions and behaviours towards these viruses and the mosquitoes capable of transmitting them is crucial for implementing effective prevention measures and targeted communication campaigns. However, there is currently no appropriate validated survey for European populations to assess this. This study developed and validated a standardized survey, based on the Health Belief Model (HBM), to assess perceptions of mosquitoes and MBVs among Europe's residents. The survey was distributed online to United Kingdom (UK), Dutch and Spanish participants through panel providers. Survey validity and reliability were tested using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and Cronbach's alpha. The optimised survey was completed by 336 UK, 438 Dutch and 475 Spanish residents, respectively, and the HBM items passed our validity and reliability testing in all three countries. The final survey has 57 questions, including 19 validated HBM items, and questions to assess demographic characteristics, knowledge, prevention measures and behavioural determinants. Our MosquitoWise survey bridges researchers' understandings of European residents' perceptions and knowledge as a first step to improve preventive behaviour towards mosquitoes and MBVs and guide prevention and communication initiatives.

West Nile virus spread in Europe: Phylogeographic pattern analysis and key drivers.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in birds, humans, and livestock have occurred in multiple areas in Europe and have had a significant impact on animal and human health. The patterns of emergence and spread of WNV in Europe are very different from those in the US and understanding these are important for guiding preparedness activities. METHODS: We mapped the evolution and spread history of WNV in Europe by incorporating viral genome sequences and epidemiological data into phylodynamic models. Spatially explicit phylogeographic models were developed to explore the possible contribution of different drivers to viral dispersal direction and velocity. A "skygrid-GLM" approach was used to identify how changes in environments would predict viral genetic diversity variations over time. FINDINGS: Among the six lineages found in Europe, WNV-2a (a sub-lineage of WNV-2) has been predominant (accounting for 73% of all sequences obtained in Europe that have been shared in the public domain) and has spread to at least 14 countries. In the past two decades, WNV-2a has evolved into two major co-circulating clusters, both originating from Central Europe, but with distinct dynamic history and transmission patterns. WNV-2a spreads at a high dispersal velocity (88km/yr-215 km/yr) which is correlated to bird movements. Notably, amongst multiple drivers that could affect the spread of WNV, factors related to land use were found to strongly influence the spread of WNV. Specifically, the intensity of agricultural activities (defined by factors related to crops and livestock production, such as coverage of cropland, pasture, cultivated and managed vegetation, livestock density) were positively associated with both spread direction and velocity. In addition, WNV spread direction was associated with high coverage of wetlands and migratory bird flyways. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that-in addition to ecological conditions favouring bird- and mosquito- presence-agricultural land use may be a significant driver of WNV emergence and spread. Our study also identified significant gaps in data and the need to strengthen virological surveillance in countries of Central Europe from where WNV outbreaks are likely seeded. Enhanced monitoring for early detection of further dispersal could be targeted to areas with high agricultural activities and habitats of migratory birds.

Effect of water salinity on immature performance and lifespan of adult Asian tiger mosquito.

BACKGROUND: Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) is a vector for pathogens like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Its adaptive capacity enables reproduction in temperate climates and development mainly in artificial containers with fresh water in urbanized areas. Nevertheless, breeding in coastal areas may also occur along with its aggressive invasiveness. Global warming and the consequent rise in sea levels will increase saline (> 30 ppt) or brackish (0.5-30 ppt salt) water in coastal regions. To address whether Ae. albopictus can breed in brackish water, we initiated the current study that analyses the survival of immature stages at different salinity concentrations and explores whether carryover effects occur in the resulting adults. This possible adaptation is important when considering the potential for development in new habitats and expansion of one of the world's most invasive species. METHODS: We investigated the influence of salinity on the survival of Ae. albopictus larvae and adults under laboratory-controlled conditions. First instar larvae were exposed to different salinity concentrations (0 to 30 ppt) and their development time, pupation, adult emergence, and overall survival were monitored daily. We used Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models to analyze the survival rates at different salinity levels. Furthermore, life tables were constructed under each salinity concentration. RESULTS: Increasing salt concentrations significantly increased the mortality risk during immature development, while no significant effect was observed on adult mortality risk. A comparison between distilled and bottled water revealed a notable increase in overall mortality risk for individuals developing in distilled water. However, no significant effects were found when analyzing survival from the first larval stage to adult emergence and adult lifespan. The life expectancy of immature stages decreased with increasing salt concentrations, although salinity concentration did not significantly impact adult life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that Ae. albopictus, previously considered freshwater species, can successfully develop and survive in brackish waters, even in the absence of characteristic structures found in euryhaline species. These adaptations may enable Ae. albopictus to establish new breeding sites and colonize unexplored territories. Knowledge of these physiological adaptations of Ae. albopictus to salinity should be pursued to increase the range of control of the species, and to make more accurate predictions of its dispersal and vectoring ability.

A fast and inexpensive genotyping system for the simultaneous analysis of human and Aedes albopictus short tandem repeats.

BACKGROUND: Determination of the interactions between hematophagous mosquitoes and their human hosts is of great importance for better understanding the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne arboviruses and developing effective strategies to mitigate risk. Genetic analysis of human and mosquito DNA can play a key role in this, but commercial kits for human short tandem repeat (STR) genotyping are expensive and do not allow for the simultaneous STR analysis of host and vector DNA. Here, we present an inexpensive and straightforward STR-loci multiplex system capable of simultaneously amplifying Aedes albopictus and human STRs from blood-fed mosquitoes. Additionally, we examine the effect of storage methods and post-feeding time on the integrity of host DNA. METHODS: Thirty-five STRs (16 human and 19 Ae. albopictus STRs) subdivided in three multiplexes were tested for amplification and scoring reliability. Under laboratory conditions we compared the efficacy of two preservation methods (absolute ethanol vs lysis buffer) on the integrity of host DNA in Ae. albopictus blood meals. We also evaluated the effect of post-feeding time by sacrificing blood-fed mosquitoes at different time intervals after feeding, and we assessed our ability to detect multiple feedings. To determine if the system can be employed successfully under field conditions, we carried out a preliminary study using field-collected Ae. albopictus. RESULTS: All 35 STRs amplified consistently in the laboratory. Lysis buffer performed better than absolute ethanol in terms of allele peak height and clarity of electropherograms. Complete human DNA profiles could be obtained up to 48 h following the blood meal. Analysis of multiple feedings confirmed that peak heights can be used as a proxy to determine post-feeding time and thus derive the number of different people bitten by a mosquito. In the field trial, amplification was successful for 32 STRs. We found human DNA signal in 38 of the 61 field-collected mosquitoes (62%), of which 34 (89%) had ingested a single blood meal, while four (11%) contained double meals. CONCLUSIONS: Our new genotyping system allows fast and reliable screening of both host and vector species, and can be further adapted to other mosquito species living in close contact with humans.

Drivers of longevity of wild-caught Aedes albopictus populations.

BACKGROUND: Age structure and longevity constitute fundamental determinants of mosquito populations' capacity to transmit pathogens. However, investigations on mosquito-borne diseases primarily focus on aspects such as abundance or dispersal rather than survival and demography. Here, we examine the post-capture longevity of wild-caught populations of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus to investigate the influence of environmental factors and individual frailty on longevity. METHODS: We captured females of Ae. albopictus from June to November 2021 in a vegetated and an urban area by two methods of capture (BG traps and Human Landing catch). They were kept in semi-controlled conditions in the field, and survival was monitored daily across the 859 individuals captured. We studied the differences in longevity per capture method and location and the influence on longevity of seasonal, climatic and individual factors. RESULTS: Photoperiod, GDD, minimum and maximum temperature and relative humidity showed an effect on the risk of death of females in the field. Females captured in urban area with Human Landing catch methods had greater longevity than females captured in non-urban areas with BG traps. Individual variance, reflecting individual frailties, had an important effect on the risk of death: the greater the frailty, the shorter the post-capture longevity. Overall, longevity is affected not only by climate and seasonal drivers like temperature and photoperiod but also by the individual frailty of mosquitoes. CONCLUSION: This work unravels environmental drivers of key demographic parameters such as longevity, as modulated by individual frailty, in disease vectors with strong seasonal dynamics. Further demographic understanding of disease vectors in the wild is needed to adopt new surveillance and control strategies and improve our understanding of disease risk and spread.

Decision-support tools to build climate resilience against emerging infectious diseases in Europe and beyond.

Climate change is one of several drivers of recurrent outbreaks and geographical range expansion of infectious diseases in Europe. We propose a framework for the co-production of policy-relevant indicators and decision-support tools that track past, present, and future climate-induced disease risks across hazard, exposure, and vulnerability domains at the animal, human, and environmental interface. This entails the co-development of early warning and response systems and tools to assess the costs and benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures across sectors, to increase health system resilience at regional and local levels and reveal novel policy entry points and opportunities. Our approach involves multi-level engagement, innovative methodologies, and novel data streams. We take advantage of intelligence generated locally and empirically to quantify effects in areas experiencing rapid urban transformation and heterogeneous climate-induced disease threats. Our goal is to reduce the knowledge-to-action gap by developing an integrated One Health-Climate Risk framework.

Demographic and motivational differences between participants in analog and digital citizen science projects for monitoring mosquitoes.

Worldwide, citizen scientists help to map the distribution of native and introduced mosquito species in a variety of programs, contributing to environmental research and management decisions. Participant background, behavior, and engagement may vary depending on the project design, especially between those using digital apps and those using physical samples, which in turn may impact the quality and representativeness of the data collected. During the analysis of the responses to a survey directed at citizen scientists participating in  a digital and an analog program, we found significant differences in the respondents' demographic backgrounds. Diverse participant motivations and varying sentiments towards mosquitoes were observed, indicating differing susceptibility in response to the program messages. The results can be translated into recommendations to further strengthen the appeal of citizen science projects and to promote and sustain public engagement in environmental research.

Epidemic thresholds and human mobility.

A comprehensive view of disease epidemics demands a deep understanding of the complex interplay between human behaviour and infectious diseases. Here, we propose a flexible modelling framework that brings conclusions about the influence of human mobility and disease transmission on early epidemic growth, with applicability in outbreak preparedness. We use random matrix theory to compute an epidemic threshold, equivalent to the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], for a SIR metapopulation model. The model includes both systematic and random features of human mobility. Variations in disease transmission rates, mobility modes (i.e. commuting and migration), and connectivity strengths determine the threshold value and whether or not a disease may potentially establish in the population, as well as the local incidence distribution.

Resource predictability modulates spatial-use networks in an endangered scavenger species.

BACKGROUND: Changes in human-induced resource availability can alter the behaviour of free-living species and affect their foraging strategies. The future European Landfill Waste Directive and Circular Economy Action Plan will reduce the number of predictable anthropogenic food subsidies (PAFS), above all, by closing landfills to preclude negative effects on human health. Obligate avian scavengers, the most threatened group of birds worldwide, are the most likely group of species that will be forced to change their behaviour and use of space in response to landfill site closures. Here, we examine the possible consequences of these management decisions on the foraging patterns of Egyptian vultures (Neophron percnopterus) in an expanding population in the Iberian Peninsula. METHODS: We tracked 16 individuals in 2018-2021, including breeders and non-breeders, and, using a combination of spatial-use and spatial-network modelling, assessed landscape connectivity between key resources based on movement patterns. We then carried out simulations of future scenarios based on the loss of PAFS to predict likely changes in the movement patterns of both non-breeders and breeders. RESULTS: Our results show that foraging strategies in non-breeders and breeders differ significantly: non-breeders performed more dispersal movements than breeding birds across a spatial-use network. Non-breeding and breeding networks were found to be vulnerable to the removal of central foraging areas containing landfill sites, a highly predictable resource, while perturbation analysis showed dissimilar foraging responses to the gradual reduction of other predictable resources. Under a context of the non-availability of landfills for breeders and non-breeders, vultures will increase their use of extensive livestock as a trophic resource. CONCLUSIONS: Future environmental policies should thus extend the areas used by scavengers in which livestock carcasses are allowed to remain in the wild, a strategy that will also mitigate the lack of food caused by any reduction in available waste if landfills close. In general, our results emphasize the capabilities of a spatial network approaches to address questions on movement ecology. They can be used to infer the behavioural response of animal species and, also demonstrate the importance of applying such approaches to endangered species conservation within a context of changing humanized scenarios.

Joint estimation of survival and dispersal effectively corrects the permanent emigration bias in mark-recapture analyses.

Robust and reliable estimates of demographic parameters are essential to understand population dynamics. Natal dispersal is a common process in monitored populations and can cause underestimations of survival and dispersal due to permanent emigration. Here, we present a multistate Bayesian capture-mark-recapture approach based on a joint estimation of natal dispersal kernel and detection probabilities to address biases in survival, dispersal, and related demographic parameters when dispersal information is limited. We implement this approach to long-term data of a threatened population: the Bonelli's eagle in Catalonia (SW Europe). To assess the method's performance, we compare demographic estimates structured by sex, age, and breeding status in cases of limited versus large data scales, with those of classical models where dispersal and detection probabilities are estimated separately. Results show substantial corrections of demographic estimates. Natal dispersal and permanent emigration probabilities were larger in females, and consequently, female non-breeder survival showed larger differences between separate and joint estimation models. Moreover, our results suggest that estimates are sensitive to the choice of the dispersal kernel, fat-tailed kernels providing larger values in cases of data limitation. This study provides a general multistate framework to model demographic parameters while correcting permanent emigration biases caused by natal dispersal.

Citizen Science as an Approach for Responding to the Threat of Anopheles stephensi in Africa.

Even as novel technologies emerge and medicines advance, pathogen-transmitting mosquitoes pose a deadly and accelerating public health threat. Detecting and mitigating the spread of Anopheles stephensi in Africa is now critical to the fight against malaria, as this invasive mosquito poses urgent and unprecedented risks to the continent. Unlike typical African vectors of malaria, An. stephensi breeds in both natural and artificial water reservoirs, and flourishes in urban environments. With An. stephensi beginning to take hold in heavily populated settings, citizen science surveillance supported by novel artificial intelligence (AI) technologies may offer impactful opportunities to guide public health decisions and community-based interventions. Coalitions like the Global Mosquito Alert Consortium (GMAC) and our freely available digital products can be incorporated into enhanced surveillance of An. stephensi and other vector-borne public health threats. By connecting local citizen science networks with global databases that are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR), we are leveraging a powerful suite of tools and infrastructure for the early detection of, and rapid response to, (re)emerging vectors and diseases.

Multiple invasions, Wolbachia and human-aided transport drive the genetic variability of Aedes albopictus in the Iberian Peninsula.

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is one of the most invasive species in the world. Native to the tropical forests of Southeast Asia, over the past 30 years it has rapidly spread throughout tropical and temperate regions of the world. Its dramatic expansion has resulted in public health concerns as a consequence of its vector competence for at least 16 viruses. Previous studies showed that Ae. albopictus spread has been facilitated by human-mediated transportation, but much remains unknown about how this has affected its genetic attributes. Here we examined the factors that contributed to shaping the current genetic constitution of Ae. albopictus in the Iberian Peninsula, where the species was first found in 2004, by combining population genetics and Bayesian modelling. We found that both mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers showed a lack of genetic structure and the presence of worldwide dominant haplotypes, suggesting regular introductions from abroad. Mitochondrial DNA showed little genetic diversity compared to nuclear DNA, likely explained by infection with maternally transmitted bacteria of the genus Wolbachia. Multilevel models revealed that greater mosquito fluxes (estimated from commuting patterns and tiger mosquito population distribution) and spatial proximity between sampling sites were associated with lower nuclear genetic distance, suggesting that rapid short- and medium-distance dispersal is facilitated by humans through vehicular traffic. This study highlights the significant role of human transportation in shaping the genetic attributes of Ae. albopictus and promoting regional gene flow, and underscores the need for a territorially integrated surveillance across scales of this disease-carrying mosquito.

Modeling the impact of surveillance activities combined with physical distancing interventions on COVID-19 epidemics at a local level.

Physical distancing and contact tracing are two key components in controlling the COVID-19 epidemics. Understanding their interaction at local level is important for policymakers. We propose a flexible modeling framework to assess the effect of combining contact tracing with different physical distancing strategies. Using scenario tree analyses, we compute the probability of COVID-19 detection using passive surveillance, with and without contact tracing, in metropolitan Barcelona. The estimates of detection probability and the frequency of daily social contacts are fitted into an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model to simulate the epidemics considering different physical distancing scenarios over a period of 26 weeks. With the original Wuhan strain, the probability of detecting an infected individual without implementing physical distancing would have been 0.465, 0.515, 0.617, and 0.665 in designated age groups (0-14, 15-49, 50-64, and >65), respectively. As the physical distancing measures were reinforced and the disease circulation decreased, the interaction between the two interventions resulted in a reduction of the detection probabilities; however, despite this reduction, active contact tracing and isolation remained an effective supplement to physical distancing. If we relied solely on passive surveillance for diagnosing COVID-19, the model required a minimal 50% (95% credible interval, 39-69%) reduction of daily social contacts to keep the infected population under 5%, as compared to the 36% (95% credible interval, 22-56%) reduction with contact tracing systems. The simulation with the B.1.1.7 and B.1.167.2 strains shows similar results. Our simulations showed that a functioning contact tracing program would reduce the need for physical distancing and mitigate the COVID-19 epidemics.

Publishing data to support the fight against human vector-borne diseases.

Vector-borne diseases are responsible for more than 17% of human cases of infectious diseases. In most situations, effective control of debilitating and deadly vector-bone diseases (VBDs), such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, Zika and Chagas requires up-to-date, robust and comprehensive information on the presence, diversity, ecology, bionomics and geographic spread of the organisms that carry and transmit the infectious agents. Huge gaps exist in the information related to these vectors, creating an essential need for campaigns to mobilise and share data. The publication of data papers is an effective tool for overcoming this challenge. These peer-reviewed articles provide scholarly credit for researchers whose vital work of assembling and publishing well-described, properly-formatted datasets often fails to receive appropriate recognition. To address this, GigaScience's sister journal GigaByte partnered with the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to publish a series of data papers, with support from the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), hosted by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Here we outline the initial results of this targeted approach to sharing data and describe its importance for controlling VBDs and improving public health.

Inferring the age of breeders from easily measurable variables.

Age drives differences in fitness components typically due to lower performances of younger and senescent individuals, and changes in breeding age structure influence population dynamics and persistence. However, determining age and age structure is challenging in most species, where distinctive age features are lacking and available methods require substantial efforts or invasive procedures. Here we explore the potential to assess the age of breeders, or at least to identify young and senescent individuals, by measuring some breeding parameters partially driven by age (e.g. egg volume in birds). Taking advantage of a long-term population monitored seabird, we first assessed whether age influenced egg volume, and identified other factors driving this trait by using general linear models. Secondly, we developed and evaluated a machine learning algorithm to assess the age of breeders using measurable variables. We confirmed that both younger and older individuals performed worse (less and smaller eggs) than middle-aged individuals. Our ensemble training algorithm was only able to distinguish young individuals, but not senescent breeders. We propose to test the combined use of field monitoring, classic regression analysis and machine learning methods in other wild populations were measurable breeding parameters are partially driven by age, as a possible tool for assessing age structure in the wild.

Predicting fertility from sperm motility landscapes.

Understanding the organisational principles of sperm motility has both evolutionary and applied impact. The emergence of computer aided systems in this field came with the promise of automated quantification and classification, potentially improving our understanding of the determinants of reproductive success. Yet, nowadays the relationship between sperm variability and fertility remains unclear. Here, we characterize pig sperm motility using t-SNE, an embedding method adequate to study behavioural variability. T-SNE reveals a hierarchical organization of sperm motility across ejaculates and individuals, enabling accurate fertility predictions by means of Bayesian logistic regression. Our results show that sperm motility features, like high-speed and straight-lined motion, correlate positively with fertility and are more relevant than other sources of variability. We propose the combined use of embedding methods with Bayesian inference frameworks in order to achieve a better understanding of the relationship between fertility and sperm motility in animals, including humans.

Integrating Global Citizen Science Platforms to Enable Next-Generation Surveillance of Invasive and Vector Mosquitoes.

Mosquito-borne diseases continue to ravage humankind with >700 million infections and nearly one million deaths every year. Yet only a small percentage of the >3500 mosquito species transmit diseases, necessitating both extensive surveillance and precise identification. Unfortunately, such efforts are costly, time-consuming, and require entomological expertise. As envisioned by the Global Mosquito Alert Consortium, citizen science can provide a scalable solution. However, disparate data standards across existing platforms have thus far precluded truly global integration. Here, utilizing Open Geospatial Consortium standards, we harmonized four data streams from three established mobile apps­Mosquito Alert, iNaturalist, and GLOBE Observer's Mosquito Habitat Mapper and Land Cover­to facilitate interoperability and utility for researchers, mosquito control personnel, and policymakers. We also launched coordinated media campaigns that generated unprecedented numbers and types of observations, including successfully capturing the first images of targeted invasive and vector species. Additionally, we leveraged pooled image data to develop a toolset of artificial intelligence algorithms for future deployment in taxonomic and anatomical identification. Ultimately, by harnessing the combined powers of citizen science and artificial intelligence, we establish a next-generation surveillance framework to serve as a united front to combat the ongoing threat of mosquito-borne diseases worldwide.

The scent of fear makes sea urchins go ballistic.

BACKGROUND: Classic ecological formulations of predator-prey interactions often assume that predators and prey interact randomly in an information-limited environment. In the field, however, most prey can accurately assess predation risk by sensing predator chemical cues, which typically trigger some form of escape response to reduce the probability of capture. Here, we explore under laboratory-controlled conditions the long-term (minutes to hours) escaping response of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus, a key species in Mediterranean subtidal macrophyte communities. METHODS: Behavioural experiments involved exposing a random sample of P. lividus to either one of two treatments: (i) control water (filtered seawater) or (ii) predator-conditioned water (with cues from the main P. lividus benthic predator-the gastropod Hexaplex trunculus). We analysed individual sea urchin trajectories, computed their heading angles, speed, path straightness, diffusive properties, and directional entropy (as a measure of path unpredictability). To account for the full picture of escaping strategies, we followed not only the first instants post-predator exposure, but also the entire escape trajectory. We then used linear models to compare the observed results from control and predators treatments. RESULTS: The trajectories from sea urchins subjected to predator cues were, on average, straighter and faster than those coming from controls, which translated into differences in the diffusive properties and unpredictability of their movement patterns. Sea urchins in control trials showed complex diffusive properties in an information-limited environment, with highly variable trajectories, ranging from Brownian motion to superdiffusion, and even marginal ballistic motion. In predator cue treatments, variability reduced, and trajectories became more homogeneous and predictable at the edge of ballistic motion. CONCLUSIONS: Despite their old evolutionary origin, lack of cephalization, and homogenous external appearance, the trajectories that sea urchins displayed in information-limited environments were complex and ranged widely between individuals. Such variable behavioural repertoire appeared to be intrinsic to the species and emerged when the animals were left unconstrained. Our results highlight that fear from predators can be an important driver of sea urchin movement patterns. All in all, the observation of anomalous diffusion, highly variable trajectories and the behavioural shift induced by predator cues, further highlight that the functional forms currently used in classical predator-prey models are far from realistic.