Mathematical Modelling of Trachoma Transmission, Control and Elimination.

The World Health Organization has targeted the elimination of blinding trachoma by the year 2020. To this end, the Global Elimination of Blinding Trachoma (GET, 2020) alliance relies on a four-pronged approach, known as the SAFE strategy (S for trichiasis surgery; A for antibiotic treatment; F for facial cleanliness and E for environmental improvement). Well-constructed and parameterized mathematical models provide useful tools that can be used in policy making and forecasting in order to help to control trachoma and understand the feasibility of this large-scale elimination effort. As we approach this goal, the need to understand the transmission dynamics of infection within areas of different endemicities, to optimize available resources and to identify which strategies are the most cost-effective becomes more pressing. In this study, we conducted a review of the modelling literature for trachoma and identified 23 articles that included a mechanistic or statistical model of the transmission, dynamics and/or control of (ocular) Chlamydia trachomatis. Insights into the dynamics of trachoma transmission have been generated through both deterministic and stochastic models. A large body of the modelling work conducted to date has shown that, to varying degrees of effectiveness, antibiotic administration can reduce or interrupt trachoma transmission. However, very little analysis has been conducted to consider the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions (and particularly the F and E components of the SAFE strategy) in helping to reduce transmission. Furthermore, very few of the models identified in the literature review included a structure that permitted tracking of the prevalence of active disease (in the absence of active infection) and the subsequent progression to disease sequelae (the morbidity associated with trachoma and ultimately the target of GET 2020 goals). This represents a critical gap in the current trachoma modelling literature, which makes it difficult to reliably link infection and disease. In addition, it hinders the application of modelling to assist the public health community in understanding whether trachoma programmes are on track to reach the GET goals by 2020. Another gap identified in this review was that of the 23 articles examined, only one considered the cost-effectiveness of the interventions implemented. We conclude that although good progress has been made towards the development of modelling frameworks for trachoma transmission, key components of disease sequelae representation and economic evaluation of interventions are currently missing from the available literature. We recommend that rapid advances in these areas should be urgently made to ensure that mathematical models for trachoma transmission can robustly guide elimination efforts and quantify progress towards GET 2020.

River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination.

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

A parasitological survey, in rural Zanzibar, of pre-school children and their mothers for urinary schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases and malaria, with observations on the prevalence of anaemia.

'Kick-out-Kichocho' is an integrated helminth-control initiative that is aimed at reducing the burden of urinary schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) on Zanzibar Island (Unguja), in Tanzania. Like other initiatives based on preventive chemotherapy, the programme is mainly school-based and, consequently, pre-school children (aged < or =6 years) are not targeted specifically. To assess the importance of urinary schistosomiasis, STH and malaria, as well as the occurrence of anaemia and growth retardation among these younger children, an epidemiological survey has been undertaken, in a rural area of Unguja, among 152 pre-school children and their 113 mothers. In the pre-school children investigated, urinary schistosomiasis was rare because of the children's lack of contact with environmental water. Malaria was also rare in the children, probably as a consequence of the study season, the widespread use of insecticide-treated bednets and the good access to first-line antimalarial drugs. In contrast, the prevalences of infection with at least one soil-transmitted helminth and of anaemia were alarmingly high among the pre-school children, at 50.0% [95% confidence interval (CI)=40.4%-59.6%) and 73.4% (CI=?65.2%-80.5%), respectively; the corresponding values in the children's mothers were 35.2% (CI=25.4%-45.9%) and 25.9% (CI=18.0%-35.3%). In the rural study area, Kandwi was identified as a hamlet with particularly high levels of transmission of soil-transmitted helminths, and household aggregations of STH were common. To reduce the present health inequities, the future integration of pre-school children within ongoing anthelmintic-control programmes in schools is strongly recommended.

An analysis of the population genetics of potential multi-drug resistance in Wuchereria bancrofti due to combination chemotherapy.

Currently, annual mass treatments with albendazole (ABZ) plus ivermectin (IVM) or diethylcarbamazine (DEC) are administered under the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF). Drug resistance against both ABZ and IVM is prevalent in nematodes of veterinary importance, raising awareness that if anthelmintic resistance were to develop among Wuchereria bancrofti populations, this would jeopardize GPELF's goals. Genetic structure was incorporated into an existing transmission dynamics model for lymphatic filariasis (LF) to investigate the potential development of concurrent resistance to ABZ and IVM. The resultant models explore the impact of different inheritance modes of resistance to ABZ and IVM on the likely risk of treatment failure under our model assumptions. Results indicate that under ABZ+IVM combination, selection for resistance to one drug is enhanced if resistance to the other drug is already present. Excess parasite homozygosity may increase selection for dominant IVM resistance via enhancing the frequency of recessive ABZ resistance. The model predicts that if multiple resistance genes are associated with different efficacy properties of a drug combination, then examining changes at single loci may be misleading. Sampling schemes in genetic epidemiological surveys investigating the frequency of an allele under selection should consider host age, as individuals of different ages may acquire parasites at different rates.

Population genetics of concurrent selection with albendazole and ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine on the possible spread of albendazole resistance in Wuchereria bancrofti.

The Global Program for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) intends to achieve its aims through yearly mass treatments with albendazole (ABZ) combined with ivermectin (IVM) or diethylcarbamazine (DEC). The use of ABZ and IVM separately to combat parasites of veterinary importance has, on many occasions, resulted in widespread drug resistance. In order to help predict the spread of potential ABZ resistance alleles through a population of Wuchereria bancrofti, we have developed a mathematical model that incorporates population genetics into EPIFIL, a model which examines the transmission dynamics of the parasite. Our model considers the effect of the combined treatments on the frequency of a recessive allele, which confers ABZ resistance. The model predicts that after 10 yearly treatments with ALB and DEC, 85% coverage and an initial resistance allele frequency of 5%, the frequency of the resistance genotype will increase from 0.25 to 12.7%. If non-random mating is assumed, the initial genotype frequency will be 2.34% and will increase to 62.7%. ABZ and IVM combination treatment may lead to weaker selection for this genotype. Treatment coverage, initial allele frequencies and number of treatments also affect the rate of selection.

Microfilarial distribution of Loa loa in the human host: population dynamics and epidemiological implications.

Severe adverse events (SAEs) following ivermectin treatment may occur in people harbouring high Loa loa microfilarial (mf) densities. In the context of mass ivermectin distribution for onchocerciasis control in Africa, it is crucial to define precisely the geographical distribution of L. loa in relation to that of Onchocerca volvulus and predict the prevalence of heavy infections. To this end, we analysed the distribution of mf loads in 4183 individuals living in 36 villages of central Cameroon. Mf loads were assessed quantitatively by calibrated blood smears, collected prior to ivermectin distribution. We explored the pattern of L. loa mf aggregation by fitting the (zero-truncated) negative binomial distribution and estimating its overdispersion parameter k by maximum likelihood. The value of k varied around 0.3 independently of mf intensity, host age, village and endemicity level. Based on these results, we developed a semi-empirical model to predict the prevalence of heavy L. loa mf loads in a community given its overall mf prevalence. If validated at the continental scale and linked to predictive spatial models of loiasis distribution, this approach would be particularly useful for optimizing the identification of areas at risk of SAEs and providing estimates of populations at risk in localities where L. loa and O. volvulus are co-endemic.

Co-infection with Onchocerca volvulus and Loa loa microfilariae in central Cameroon: are these two species interacting?

Ivermectin treatment may induce severe adverse reactions in some individuals heavily infected with Loa loa. This hampers the implementation of mass ivermectin treatment against onchocerciasis in areas where Onchocerca volvulus and L. loa are co-endemic. In order to identify factors, including co-infections, which may explain the presence of high L. loa microfilaraemia in some individuals, we analysed data collected in 19 villages of central Cameroon. Two standardized skin snips and 30 mul of blood were obtained from each of 3190 participants and the microfilarial (mf) loads of both O. volvulus and L. loa were quantified. The data were analysed using multivariate hierarchical models. Individual-level variables were: age, sex, mf presence, and mf load; village-related variables included the endemicity levels for each infection. The two species show a certain degree of ecological separation in the study area. However, for a given individual host, the presence of microfilariae of one species was positively associated with the presence of microfilariae of the other (OR=1.79, 95% CI [1.43-2.24]). Among individuals harbouring Loa microfilariae, there was a slight positive relationship between the L. loa and O. volvulus mf loads which corresponded to an 11% increase in L. loa mf load per 100 O. volvulus microfilariae. Co-infection with O. volvulus is not sufficient to explain the very high L. loa mf loads harboured by some individuals.

Population biology of multispecies helminth infection: interspecific interactions and parasite distribution.

Despite evidence for the existence of interspecific interactions between helminth species, there has been no theoretical exploration of their effect on the distribution of the parasite species in a host population. We use a deterministic model for the accumulation and loss of adult worms of 2 interacting helminth species to motivate an individual-based stochastic model. The mean worm burden and variance: mean ratio (VMR) of each species, and the correlation between the two species are used to describe the distribution within different host age classes. We find that interspecific interactions can produce convex age-intensity profiles and will impact the level of aggregation (as measured by the VMR). In the absence of correlated exposure, the correlation in older age classes may be close to zero when either intra- or interspecific synergistic effects are strong. We therefore suggest examining the correlation between species in young hosts as a possible means of identifying interspecific interaction. The presence of correlation between the rates of exposure makes the interpretation of correlations between species more difficult. Finally we show that in the absence of interaction, strong positive correlations are generated by averaging across most age classes.

Density dependence and overdispersion in the transmission of helminth parasites.

The influence of density-dependent processes on the transmission of parasitic helminths is determined by both the severity of the regulatory constraints and the degree of parasite overdispersion among the host population. We investigate how overdispersed parasite distributions among humans influence transmission levels in both directly- and indirectly-transmitted nematodes (Ascaris lumbricoides and Onchocerca volvulus). While past work has assumed, for simplicity, that density dependence acts on the average worm load, here we model density-dependence as acting on individual parasite burdens before averaging across hosts. A composite parameter, which we call the effective transmission contribution, is devised to measure the number of transmission stages contributed by a given worm burden after incorporating over-dispersion in adult worm mating probabilities and other density-dependent mechanisms. Results indicate that the more overdispersed the parasite population, the greater the effect of density dependence upon its transmission dynamics. Strong regulation and parasite overdispersion make the relationship between mean worm burden and its effective contribution to transmission highly non-linear. Consequently, lowering the intensity of infection in a host population using chemotherapy may produce only a small decline in transmission (relative to its initial endemic level). Our analysis indicates that when parasite burden is low, intermediate levels of parasite clustering maximize transmission. Implications are discussed in relation to existing control programmes and the spread of anthelmintic resistance.

Diurnal biting periodicity of parous Simulium (Diptera: Simuliidae) vectors in the onchocerciasis Amazonian focus.

We describe the hourly patterns of parous biting activity of the three main simuliid vectors of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus straddling between Venezuela and Brazil, namely, Simulium guianense s.l. Wise; S. incrustatum Lutz, and S. oyapockense s.l. Floch and Abonnenc. Time series of the hourly numbers of host-seeking parous flies caught in five Yanomami villages during dry, rainy, and their transition periods from 1995 to 2001 were investigated using harmonic analysis (assuming an underlying circadian rhythm) and periodic correlation (based on Spearman's r). Parous S guianense s.l. showed a bimodal activity pattern, with a minor peak in mid-morning and a major peak at 16:00 h. S. incrustatum exhibited mainly unimodal activity during either early morning or midday according to locality. S. oyapockense s.l. bit humans throughout the day mainly between 10:00 and 16:00 h but also showed bimodal periodicity in some localities. Superimposed on the endogenous, species-specific daily cycles, parous activity showed variation according to locality, season, air temperature and relative humidity, with biting being promoted by warmer and drier hours during wet seasons/periods and reduced during hotter times in dry seasons or transitions. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for blackfly biology and ecology as well as onchocerciasis epidemiology and control.

Spatial and temporal variation in biting rates and parasite transmission potentials of onchocerciasis vectors in Ecuador.

The influence of spatial and temporal factors on onchocerciasis transmission by Simulium exiguum s.l. and S. quadrivittatum in Ecuador was investigated to help develop sampling protocols for entomological surveillance of ivermectin programmes. Flies were collected in alternate months (November 1995-November 1996) at four sites each in the hyperendemic communities of San Miguel and El Tigre. A fixed-effects analysis of variance was used to explore the influence on vector abundance of locality, site, month and hour. Infectivity rates detected by dissection and PCR assays were compared. Simulium exiguum s.l. predominated at El Tigre (75%) whereas S. quadrivittatum prevailed at San Miguel (62%). Vector abundance was highest on river banks and outside houses. Biting and infection rates peaked from March to July. Hourly activity patterns were bimodal in S. exiguum but unimodal in S. quadrivittatum. Annual transmission potentials (ATP) for both species combined were 385 and 733 third stage larvae/person in San Miguel and El Tigre respectively, with S. exiguum accounting for 80% of the combined ATP at both localities. We recommend protocols that may maximize detection of parasite transmission. Infection rates thus obtained must be linked with vector density estimates to assess meaningfully host exposure as treatment progresses.

Association between microfilarial load and excess mortality in onchocerciasis: an epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Infection with the parasitic filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus can lead to severe visual impairment and ultimately blindness. Excess mortality has been noted among people with onchocerciasis, but it is not clear whether this effect is entirely due to blindness, or mediated by some more direct effects of the infection. METHODS: We assessed the relations between infection with O volvulus, visual acuity, and host mortality with data obtained by the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa from 2315 villages in 11 countries. FINDINGS: 297,756 people were eligible for follow-up, and accumulated 2,579449 person-years of follow-up from 1971 through 2001. 24,517 people died during this period; 1283 (5.2%) of these deaths were due to onchocerciasis. Mortality of the human host was significantly and positively associated with increasing microfilarial burden (p<0.00001), but not with blindness after adjustment for microfilarial load and other variables. Overall, after adjustment for microfilarial load and other variables, female individuals had a risk of death about 7.5% lower than males (p<0.00001). Rates of mortality peaked in the mid 1980s but generally decreased thereafter. INTERPRETATION: We have shown a direct relation between O volvulus microfilarial load and host mortality in a comprehensive dataset and in both sexes.

Experimental studies on the transmission of Onchocerca volvulus by its vector in the Sanaga valley (Cameroon): Simulium squamosum B. Intake of microfilariae and their migration to the haemocoel of the vector.

As large-scale ivermectin distribution is becoming the mainstay of onchocerciasis control in Africa, the issue of its impact on local transmission is increasing in importance. The vector competence of Simulium squamosum B in the severe focus of the Sanaga valley, Cameroon, was therefore investigated, by feeding 1320 flies on 14 carriers of Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mff). The results enabled the relationships between skin microfilarial load, microfilarial intake by the flies, the proportion and mean number of ingested mff that succeed in reaching the fly's haemocoel, and the frequency distribution of the ingested mff to be described, as functions of time post-engorgement (p.e.) and parasite density (while taking account of possible measurement error in the predictor variable). The proportion of flies with haemocoelic mff and the mean number of mff/fly increased up to 3 h p.e. The proportion of flies with ingested mff was non-linearly related to mean intake, via the negative-binomial distribution, with the overdispersion parameter k best described as an increasing (power) function of the mean. Approximately one in every three ingested mff escaped imprisonment by the peritrophic matrix, irrespective of the skin microfilarial load or the intake of mff. The relationship between successful and input mff is nearly linear (indicating proportionality) in S. squamosum B. These results are compared with those from O. volvulus-S. damnosum s.l. combinations in other West African foci.

Models for the population biology and control of human onchocerciasis.

The absence of animal models in which to reproduce successfully the complete life cycle of Onchocerca volvulus has hindered progress towards unravelling the processes involved in the regulation of parasite abundance in the vertebrate host. Mathematical frameworks have been developed to explore the consequences of such processes in determining parasite population dynamics and the effect on these of control interventions. Post-control predictions are strongly influenced by the assumptions concerning the reproductive life span of the adult female worm (the longest-lived parasite stage) and the distribution of its survival times, and this notion is important to all frameworks. Here, we review the development of models concerning onchocerciasis and discuss the various approaches that have been used, presenting a deterministic framework with parameter values estimated from the Mexican onchocerciasis control programme. This model is used to evaluate interventions combining the removal of adult worms (nodulectomy) and the microfilaricidal and possibly sterilizing effect of ivermectin.

Human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian area of southern Venezuela: spatial and temporal variations in biting and parity rates of black fly (Diptera: Simuliidae) vectors.

We investigated some entomological factors underlying altitudinal prevalence variation in the Venezuelan Amazonia human onchocerciasis focus. Spatial and temporal variation in relative abundance, daily biting rate, proportion of parous flies, and monthly parous biting rate were studied for the three main simuliid vectors (based on their vectorial competence: Simulium oyapockense s.l. Floch & Abonnenc approximately = S. incrustatum Lutz << S. guianense s.l. Wise). Yanomami villages were selected among sentinel communities of the ivermectin control program, representing hypo- to hyperendemicity conditions of infection. Spatial variation was explored via increasing village altitude on two river systems (A: Ocamo-Putaco and B: Orinoco-Orinoquito). Temporal variation was studied between 1995 and 1999 by sampling the biting population during dry and rainy mouths. Environmental variables included monthly rainfall and maximum river height. Simuliid species composition itself varied along the altitudinal and prevalence gradient. S. oyapockense s.l. prevailed below 150 m. Above this altitude and up to 240 m, S. incrustatum and S. guianense s.l. became more frequently and evenly collected along A but not along B, where S. incrustatum remained absent. The daily biting rate of S. oyapockense s.l. was higher during the dry season along A, whereas the converse took place along B. Daily biting rate of S. incrustatum was lowest during early rains. By contrast, the daily biting rate of S. guianense s.l. was highest during this period. There was a significant negative cross-correlation between proportion of parous of S. oyapockense s.l. and river height (2 and 3 mo lagged), whereas this variable (1 and 2 mo lagged) was positively correlated with the proportion of parous flies for S. incrustatum. Monthly parous biting rate values suggest that the months contributing most to onchocerciasis transmission in the area are likely to be the dry season and the transition periods between seasons.

Amazonian onchocerciasis: parasitological profiles by host-age, sex, and endemicity in southern Venezuela.

This paper describes, for the human onchocerciasis focus of southern Venezuela, the age profiles of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial (mf) and nodule prevalence, mf intensity, and mf aggregation for the whole examined population (836 Yanomami people) living in 20 villages, and for these communities classified according to endemicity levels (hypoendemic: < or = 20 %; mesoendemic: 21-59 %; hyperendemic: < or = 60 % infected). Mf prevalence and intensity increased with age, particularly in the hyperendemic areas, and there were no marked differences between the sexes. The prevalence of nodules followed the same age pattern. Fifty percent mf prevalence was reached in the 15-19 year age-class when the population was taken as a whole; nearly in the 10 to 14-year-olds for the hyperendemic level, in those aged 20-29 years in mesoendemic areas, and not reached at all in hypoendemic villages. The degree of mf aggregation was measured by the k value of the negative binomial distribution and by the variance to mean ratio (VMR). The relationship between the standard deviation (S.D.) of mf counts and the mean mf density was also explored. These 3 indices (k, VMR, and S.D.) showed a tendency to increase with both mean mf load and host age. Since infection intensity and host age were themselves positively related, it was not possible to draw definite conclusions about age-specific changes of parasite aggregation. There was not a significant decrease of mf intensity after an earlier peak neither was there a shift towards younger ages of the maximum no. of mf/mg reached as the endemicity level increased. These results are discussed in relation to detection of density dependence in the human host, selection of an indicator age-group for rapid epidemiological assessment (REA) methods, and strategies of ivermectin distribution in the Amazonian focus. It is recommended that, for the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus, the indicator group for REA consists of all those aged 15 years and over.

Parasitological indicators of onchocerciasis relevant to ivermectin control programmes in the Amazonian focus of Southern Venezuela.

In the previous paper it was concluded that those aged > or = 15 years of both sexes could comprise the indicator group for rapid epidemiological assessment (REA) of onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus. This paper explores relationships between community microfilarial (mf) prevalence, intensity, and nodule prevalence in 20 Yanomami communities, that would allow identification of REA methods in the region. The mean nodule ratio (prevalence of nodules/prevalence of mf) was 0.54 when onchocercomata in the indicator group were considered. The Spearman correlation coefficient between mf and nodule prevalence was 0.686 (P = 0.001). Palpation of nodules had 92 % specificity and 32 % sensitivity when compared to skin-snipping for the diagnosis of onchocerciasis. The predictive value positive increased from 75 % to 81 % when the indicator group was used. A microfilarial prevalence > 75 % in this group would be indicative of hyperendemic status in the village, between 30 and 75 % of mesoendemicity, and < 30 % of hypoendemicity. For the assessment of infection intensity, biopsies may be taken from the iliac crest for all endemicity levels. Five of the hyperendemic villages surveyed in this work had a community microfilarial load (CMFL) greater than 10 mf/skin snip; the remaining 5 had a CMFL between 5 and 9. These levels of infection merit high priority ivermectin treatment. In Latin America, communities at both moderate and severe risk are included in mass chemotherapy programmes (i.e. when mf prevalence is over 20 %). Roughly, a nodule prevalence in the indicator group > 10 % would suggest a community mf prevalence > 20 % with a sensitivity of 85 % and a specificity of 71 %. A multiple linear regression model of the arc-sine transformed mf prevalence in the village (all ages) on nodule prevalence in those aged > or = 15 years and altitude of the village explained 72 % of the variance. The model combining nodule and altitudinal information had a sensitivity of 92 % and a specificity of 71 % in comparison to an estimated mf prevalence of 21 % or more. It is suggested that the usefulness of the REA methods proposed be assessed in other areas of the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus.

Phosphoglucomutase and trehalase isoenzymes of Venezuelan simulium vectors of Onchocerca volvulus.

Phosphoglucomutase (PGM) and trehalase (Tre) isoenzymes of five species of Simulium blackflies (Diptera: Simuliidae), vectors of onchocerciasis in Venezuela, were investigated by means of a portable electrophoresis field kit. Tre differed between S. incrustatum and S. oyapockense s.l. Electrophoretic variation of Tre in other members of the S. amazonicum and S. incrustatum groups merit further investigation. PGM appears to be more useful for separating populations within species complexes. Multiple populations and/or seasonal changes in population structure of S. guianense s.l., S. exiguum s.l. and S. metallicum s.l. were inferred from elecrophoretic variation of PGM.

Onchocerca-Simulium complexes in Venezuela: can human onchocerciasis spread outside its present endemic areas?

The compatibility between sympatric and allopatric combinations of Onchocerca volvulus-anthropophilic species of Simulium was studied in the north-eastern focus of human onchocerciasis as well as in a densely populated locality of the Amazonas State in Venezuela. The objectives were to test the conjecture that local adaptation exists between the parasite and its vectors (the Onchocerca-Simulium complex hypothesis), and assess the possibility of the infection spreading from its present distributional range. For the homologous combination, O. volvulus-S. metallicum cytospecies E in Anzoátegui State (north-eastern focus), parasite yield was 45% in contrast to 1% for the heterologous, southern parasite-S. metallicum infection. This was significantly lower than the parasite yield (4-10%) expected after allowing for the effect of density-dependent limitation of infective larval output described in this paper for S. metallicum. The population of S. exiguum s.l. from southern Venezuela allowed no larval development beyond the L1 stage of either northern or southern parasites. Mechanisms for such refractoriness probably operate at the level of the thoracic muscles, not affecting microfilarial uptake or migration out of the bloodmeal. The parasite yield of southern O. volvulus in S. oyapockense s.l. flies biting man at Puerto Ayacucho (Amazonas) was about 1%, in agreement with the figures recorded for highly compatible sympatric combinations such as O. volvulus-S. ochraceum s.l. in Guatemala. No infective larval development of the northern parasite was observed in southern S. oyapockense. These results, together with considerations of typical worm burdens in the human host, presence/absence of armed cibaria in the simuliids, parasite-induced vector mortality, and fly biting rates, suggest a lower potential for onchocerciasis to spread between the northern and southern endemic areas of Venezuela than that between Amazonian hyperendemic locations and settlements outside this focus with high densities of S. oyapockense s.l.

Onchocerciasis hyperendemic in the Unturán Mountains: the value of recombinant antigens in describing a new transmission area in southern Venezuela.

A recently described hyperendemic onchocerciasis area, located in the Unturán Mountains (between the Siapa and Orinoco basins) of southern Venezuela was studied using a cocktail of 3 low molecular weight onchocercal recombinant antigens (OvMBP/10, OvMBP/11, and OvMBP/29). The resulting seroepidemiological data were compared with those from a hypoendemic community (Altamira) situated in the northern coastal mountain range. Parasitological (skin biopsy) and serological (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, ELISA) methods for the specific diagnosis of Onchocerca volvulus in these 2 very different endemic areas were, respectively, 88% and 96% sensitive in Unturán, and 57% and 91% sensitive in Altamira. The mean microfilarial load, the mean optical density (OD), and the seropositivity rates all increased significantly with age in both communities. The serological variables (mean OD and prevalence of anti-O. volvulus antibodies) were both significantly higher in Unturán than in Altamira for children and young adults (aged < 25 years), although above this age no differences between communities were detected. Seroprevalence had already reached 50% in the under 15 year-olds examined at Unturán but was just 5% at Altamira for the same age-class. The prevalence of specific antibodies (mainly a marker of exposure to risk of infection) exceeded 85% in the remaining age-categories at the hyperendemic area. This is in agreement with the high community microfilarial load recorded in Unturán (> 20 mf/mg) and the presence of sclerosing keratitis and hanging groin, suggesting that onchocerciasis is a public health problem in this community. The ELISA test used here, based on a cocktail of 3 low molecular weight onchocercal recombinant antigens, appears, therefore, to constitute a practical tool for the description of endemicity levels in remote areas, particularly given the fact that finger-prick blood samples are routinely taken from children in the Upper Orinoco region for surveys of malaria incidence. Such studies could aid in defining the true extent of the Amazon focus (still unknown) and providing priority indicators for the selection of communities where onchocerciasis control programmes should be implemented.