Low fertility and fertility policies in the Asia-Pacific region.

Declining fertility is an increasing global trend. In many low fertility contexts, people are having fewer children then they want, and these unfulfilled fertility desires have been associated with wider socio-economic changes in education and labour force participation and conflicting and often contradictory expectations of women at home and at work. The right to determine if, when and how one has children is enshrined in international law yet many policies responses to low fertility fail to meet these standards. This paper summarizes why people in the Asia-Pacific region are having fewer children than they desire, and the range of policy responses, particularly those that make life easier for working parents. This raises two important points. First, we need to contend to the gender dynamics that underpin this in the region, despite gradual changes in women's roles, they are still seen as "caregivers" and undertake a disproportionate amount of unpaid care work, often having to lean-out of their employment, and/or face gender discrimination in the workplace. Second, the "emergency" of low fertility arises from complex social and economic conditions that cannot be solved by population policies solely focused on making babies.

How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China?

Ideal family sizes remain at or above two in most low-fertility settings, but sub-replacement fertility ideals have been reported for urban China. The presence of restrictive family planning policies has led to a debate as to whether such ideals are genuine. This study exploits the ending of the one-child policy and the beginning of a universal two-child policy in October 2015 to investigate whether relaxing the restrictions led to an increase in ideal family size. We apply difference-in-differences and individual-level fixed-effect models to longitudinal data from a near-nationwide survey. For married individuals aged 20-39, relaxing the restrictions from one to two children increased the mean ideal family size by around 0.2 and the proportion who desired two or more children by around 19 percentage points. Findings suggest that although reported ideal family sizes have been reduced by policy restrictions, sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China appear to be genuine.

Does Same-Sex Marriage Legalization Make Gay Men Want to Have Children? Findings from a Panel Study in Taiwan.

Introduction: This study capitalized on prospective legal change in Taiwan to capture changes in gay men's desires and attitudes toward parenthood as a function of the legalization of same-sex marriage (SSM). Methods: A panel of 731 gay men (mean age = 26.8 years ± 5.81) completed an online survey between 2019 and 2020, shortly before and 1½ years after the legalization of SSM, to report their parenting desire, marital status, and attitudes toward parenthood and marriage. Results: This study found that fewer participants in the follow-up survey expressed a parenting desire (59.0% vs. 74.2%), and the perceived importance of parenthood dropped mildly (3.48 to 3.26, Cohen's d = 0.269). Those who expressed a consistent parenting desire attached greater importance to SSM. The perceived importance of SSM was modestly and positively related to the perceived importance of having a child. Conclusion: Although the decrease in parenting desire and its perceived importance may be attributable to a lack of access to family-building options (e.g., surrogacy and adoption) and the COVID-19 pandemic, our findings illustrate that parenthood might become a next step for some Taiwanese male same-sex couples who married or considered marriage. Policy Implications: The study findings provide information for policymakers to gauge the possible number of sexual minority men who might want to have a child and consider resource allocation and deliberation on policy changes related to reproduction.

COVID-19 and excess mortality in Russia: Regional estimates of life expectancy losses in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021.

Accurately counting the human cost of the COVID-19 at both the national and regional level is a policy priority. The Russian Federation currently reports one of the higher COVID-19 mortality rates in the world; but estimates of mortality differ significantly. Using a statistical method accounting for changes in the population age structure, we present the first national and regional estimates of excess mortality for 2021; calculations of excess mortality by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2020; and mean remaining years of life expectancy lost at the regional level. We estimate that there were 351,158 excess deaths in 2020 and 678,022 in 2021 in the Russian Federation; and, in 2020, around 2.0 years of life expectancy lost. While the Russian Federation exhibits very high levels of excess mortality compared to other countries, there is a wide degree of regional variation: in 2021, excess deaths expressed as a percentage of expected deaths at the regional level range from 27% to 52%. Life expectancy loss is generally greater for males; while excess mortality is greater in urban areas. For Russia as whole, an average person who died due to the pandemic in 2020 would have otherwise lived for a further 14 more years (and as high as 18 years in some regions), disproving the widely held view that excess mortality during the pandemic period was concentrated among those with few years of life remaining-especially for females. At a regional level, less densely populated, more remote regions, rural regions appear to have fared better regarding excess mortality and life expectancy loss-however, a part of this differential could be owing to measurement issues. The calculations demonstrate more clearly the true degree of the human cost of the pandemic in the Russian Federation.

China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity.

China's low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure-based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong-especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called "productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio" can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged.

Adopting an adaptation­mitigation­resilience framework to ageing.

Population ageing is presented as one of the 'grand challenges' of the 21st century. Yet, policies designed to offset these challenges seem to be a jumbled, disjointed mix with no clear, overarching narrative. One of the successes of climate change science is the development of a clear, distinguishable framework to plan action: adaptation, mitigation and resilience. This framework can be applied to designing better policy for ageing: adapting to support people in need today; mitigating future challenges by ensuring that people and institutions 'age better'; and building resilience by developing both a longer-term perspective and policy learning framework.

Prevalence and correlates of sex-selective abortions and missing girls in Nepal: evidence from the 2011 Population Census and 2016 Demographic and Health Survey.

OBJECTIVES: These were to: (1) produce national and subnational estimates of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) and number of missing girl births in Nepal and (2) understand the socioeconomic correlates of these phenomena. DESIGN: Observational secondary data analysis of (1) the 2011 population census of Nepal and (2) the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2006, 2011 and 2016. SETTING: Nepal. PARTICIPANTS: (1) 2 567 963 children age 0-4 in the 2011 population census and (2) 27 329 births recorded in DHSs. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: We estimate the SRB, and number and proportion of missing girls in the year and 5 years before the census by district. We also calculate conditional sex ratios (the SRB dependant on parity and sex of previous children) by province, time, education and wealth. RESULTS: We find that 11 districts have significantly skewed sex ratios at birth in the 2011 population census, with the highest SRBs observed in Arghakhanchi (SRB=127) and Bhaktapur (SRB=123). 22 540 girl births were missing in the 5 years before the 2011 population census. Sex-selective abortion is geographically concentrated, especially in the Kathmandu Valley and Lumbini Province, with 53% of missing girls found in only 11 out of 75 districts.DHS data confirm this, with elevated conditional sex ratios observed in Bagmati and Lumbini Provinces; conditional sex ratios where previous births were all female also became more skewed over time. Skewed sex ratios are concentrated among wealthier more educated groups. CONCLUSIONS: It is clear that sex selection will persist and develop in Nepal unless a coordinated effort is made to address both the demand for and supply of this service. Policies should be holistic and encompass economic and legal gender equity, and strengthen monitoring mechanisms to prevent technology misuse, without jeopardising the right to safe, free and legal abortion.

The Food Environments of Fruit and Vegetable Consumption in East and Southeast Asia: A Systematic Review.

Fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption benefits the health of populations. This can be especially the case in locations which have undergone significant changes in their food environments, such as East and Southeast Asian countries. This current systematic review is the first to study the food environments-facilitators, barriers, and moderators-associated with FV consumption in East and Southeast Asia. We consulted five electronic academic databases of English peer-reviewed papers published between 2010 and 2020 and found 31 studies. Results of these studies show that individuals strongly perceive FVs as being high-quality and safe, and having trust in their benefits. Food businesses with modernized systems have significantly fostered the consumption of FVs. A main barrier to FV consumption, however, is financial concerns, exacerbated by food businesses with FV unavailability and urbanization-induced FV price inflation and dietary patterns. Demographics and shopping patterns further hinder FV consumption. The fragmented and conditionalized findings of the 31 studies require standardized FV consumption measurements. Unlike the impact of FV consumption determinants and their interactions in Western countries, those in Asia, particularly countries other than China, have been substantially understudied. Therefore, as the research gaps in studies of food environments and FV consumption in East and Southeast Asia urgently demand scholarly attention, this paper proposes recommendations that favour the consumption of FVs.

The Gender Gap in Reaching "Old Age" in the Russian Federation: A Regional Approach.

Reaching older age and longevity in later life is determined by health and mortality across the life course. In the case of Russia, the history of high male mortality skews the interaction between population aging and gender. These differentials can be viewed through a spatial lens in order to both understand their causes, and to better determine policy responses, especially in a federal political system. Using alternative conceptualizations of the "boundary to old age", we produce the first estimates of the gender gap in reaching "old age" for all Russian Federal Subjects using 2017 data. We identify some regional differentiations, but uncertainties around the consistency of registration as well as overall heterogeneity mean that clear-cut regional patterns are hard to ascribe. Our analysis shows the highly significant gender gap at the age of "becoming old" in Russia when disaggregated by region. When looking at the regional level and comparing to other countries, the range of male "boundaries to old age" is almost as great as the global range. We argue that when applying alternative "old-age thresholds", this gap represents a more accurate representation of interaction between space, gender, and mortality in Russia. We conclude with policy and research priorities to better understand and ameliorate the drivers of these spatial and gendered inequalities.

Circular visualisation of historical migration in England in the long eighteenth-century.

Migration is a central component of both individual life-courses and macro-level demographic systems. In the absence of population registers and other surveillance systems, however, it is often difficult to measure. This is especially the case in historical populations. Compared to measures of fertility, nuptiality and mortality, then, migration processes are rather less studied. Recent studies in the English historical context have challenged long standing theoretical constructs concerning the relationship between migration and modernisation; gender and distance travelled; motivation for movement and the very nature of the movers themselves. Using a set of marriage registers for a large, agricultural county, this study explores intra-county migration among a predominantly young population over the period 1700 to 1836. The proportion of migrants is explored as well as the distance between 'home' and 'marriage' parishes. For perhaps the first time, chord diagrams are deployed for historical English migration data to visualise inter- and intra- regional/district migration. Although there are numerous limitations concerning the scope of the sample and the study, the evidence presented here broadly accords with recent studies of migration in pre-industrial England; and shows the potential to both use circular visualisation and exploit large scale samples of marriage registers to gain a further insight into a particular type of historical migration.

Prospective measures of aging for Central and South America.

By conventional measures, it is often remarked that Central and South America is one of the fastest aging geographic regions in the world. In recent years, however, scholars have sought to problematize the orthodox measures and concepts employed in the aging literature. By not taking dynamic changes in life expectancy into account, measures which hold chronological age constant (e.g. defining a boundary to old age at 60 or 65) represent a very narrow view of population aging. Furthermore, such constant measures may misrepresent differences between territories when performing a comparative analysis. Prospective measures based on the number of years until death present an alternative approach which can adapt to dynamic changes in life expectancy and differences over time and space. The objective of this paper, then, is to apply the new 'prospective' measures of aging to the territories of Central and South America. We calculate prospective median age; an alternative old-age threshold based on the age at which remaining life expectancy is 15 years, and calculate prospective old-age dependency ratio for 1950-2100 using estimated and projected life tables from the latest iteration of the UN's World Population Prospects. These new measures present a very different view of aging in Central and South America. While there are significant differences across countries, the pace and scale of aging are considerably slower and diminished when compared to standard, orthodox measures based on fixed chronological ages. Applying these new measures can not only serve to present a more realistic view of aging which maps onto demographic reality but can also serve to reconceptualize and reframe the issue as something which is far more manageable (e.g. through institutional reform) than is often perceived to be.

Exploring the young demographic profile of COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong: Evidence from migration and travel history data.

This paper investigates the profile of COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong, highlighting the unique age structure of confirmed cases compared to other territories. While the majority of cases in most territories around the world have fitted an older age profile, our analysis shows that positive cases in Hong Kong have been concentrated among younger age groups, with the largest incidence of cases reported in the 15-24 age group. This is despite the population's rapidly aging structure and extremely high levels of population density. Using detailed case data from Hong Kong's Centre for Health Department and Immigration Department, we analyze the sex and age distribution of the confirmed cases along with their recent travel histories and immigration flows for the period January to April 2020. Our analysis highlights Hong Kong's high proportion of imported cases and large overseas student population in developing COVID-19 hotspot areas such as the United Kingdom. Combined with community action and targeted and aggressive early policy measures taken to contain the virus, these factors may have contributed to the uniquely younger age structure of COVID-19 cases in the city. Consequently, this young profile of confirmed cases may have prevented fatalities in the territory. Recent research has highlighted the importance of a demographic approach to understanding COVID-19 transmission and fatality rates. The experience in Hong Kong shows that while an older population age structure may be important for understanding COVID-19 fatality, it is not a given. From a social science perspective at least, there is 'no easy answer' to why one area should experience COVID-19 differently from another.

Measuring inequalities of development at the sub-national level: From the human development index to the human life indicator.

Despite being one of the most common measures of development, the Human Development Index [HDI] has been much criticized for its consistency, data requirements, difficulty of interpretation and trade-offs between indicators. The 'Human Life Indicator' [HLI] has been proposed as a 'simple effective means' of measuring development and, more specifically, as a viable alternative to the HDI. Reducing inequalities within countries is a core component of the Sustainable Development Goals; yet sub-national HDIs are subject to the same criticisms as national level indices (potentially more so). Our goal in this paper is to demonstrate 'proof of concept' in terms of the systematic application of the HLI to measure development at the subnational level. Using life tables for the United States of America, we calculate, for the first time, HLIs for each state for the period 1959-2016. This country was chosen for the comparatively long run of available sub-national life tables. We also calculate the extent to which mortality is distributed across the life course-a further measure of inequality and the role of the social determinants of health. The HLI clearly shows how striking regional inequalities exist across the United States. We find that HLI and HDI for the most recent time period are strongly correlated. The analysis demonstrates that HLI represents an effective means of measuring development at the sub-national level. Compared to HDI, HLIs are characterized by simpler calculation and interpretation; fewer data requirements; less measurement error; more consistency over time; and no trade-offs between components. A current challenge of producing sub-national HLIs is the lack of comprehensive civil registration and vital statistics systems in many parts of the Global South from which sub-national life tables can be generated. However, as more and more countries develop these systems the potential to produce HLIs will inevitably increase.

Is half the world's population really below 'replacement-rate'?

A perennial activity of demographers is to estimate the percentage of the world's population which is above or below the 'replacement rate of fertility' [RRF]. However, most attempts to do so have been based upon, at best, oversimplified, or at worst, simply incorrect assumptions about what RRF actually is. The objective of this paper is to calculate the proportion of the world's population living in countries with observed period total fertility rates [TFR] below the respective calculated RRF, rather than the commonly used measure of 2.1. While the differences between comparing TFR to 2.1 or RRF are relatively modest in many periods when considering populations at the national level, a significant difference can be observed in the near future based upon India's fertility and mortality trajectories. Our exercise represents a means of 'correcting the record' using the most up-to-date evidence and using the correct protocol.

Assessing the impact of the "one-child policy" in China: A synthetic control approach.

There is great debate surrounding the demographic impact of China's population control policies, especially the one-birth restrictions, which ended only recently. We apply an objective, data-driven method to construct the total fertility rates and population size of a 'synthetic China', which is assumed to be not subjected to the two major population control policies implemented in the 1970s. We find that while the earlier, less restrictive 'later-longer-fewer' policy introduced in 1973 played a critical role in driving down the fertility rate, the role of the 'one-child policy' introduced in 1979 and its descendants was much less significant. According to our model, had China continued with the less restrictive policies that were implemented in 1973 and followed a standard development trajectory, the path of fertility transition and total population growth would have been statistically very similar to the pattern observed over the past three decades.

Better way to measure ageing in Oceania that takes life expectancy into account.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to improve the measurement of ageing in Oceania taking into account characteristics of populations and, in particular, changes in life expectancy. METHOD: Using past and projected life tables, we calculated prospective old age dependency ratios (POADRs) to 2060, placing the boundary to old age at a moving point with a fixed remaining life expectancy (RLE) for thirteen territories of Oceania. RESULTS: In some territories, POADRs grow less rapidly than old age dependency ratios (OADRs). For example, in Australia and Guam, the OADR is forecast to increase from 0.20 and 0.07 in 1980, respectively, to 0.45 and 0.39 in 2050-55, while the POADR is forecast to increase from 0.17 and 0.07 to 0.19 and 0.19, respectively, over the same period. CONCLUSION: Policymakers may consider this more rational approach to measurement when considering holistic policy responses to both current issues relating to ageing and mitigating against future challenges.

Maternity migration and the recent normalization of the sex ratio at birth in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong is characterized by very low fertility. However, over a period from 2000 to 2015, both the total number of births and the sex ratio at birth (SRB) increased and then declined dramatically. We analysed the increases in a 2013 paper in this journal, where we largely ascribed them to a rapid growth in the number of 'transient' mothers from Mainland China disproportionately giving birth to boys in the territory. In 2012, policies were implemented to halt this 'maternity migration'. Here, we explore the impact of these policies, both on births and the SRB in Hong Kong. We conclude that the rises and falls in births and SRBs in Hong Kong can, indeed, be broadly ascribed to the reproductive behaviour of transient Mainland mothers. However, the role of the Hong Kong government's policy interventions is much less clearly defined.