Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

New frontiers in bird migration research.

Bird migrations are impressive behavioral phenomena, representing complex spatiotemporal strategies to balance costs of living while maximizing fitness. The field of bird migration research has made great strides over the past decades, yet fundamental gaps remain. Technologies have sparked a transformation in the study of bird migration research by revealing remarkable insights into the underlying behavioral, cognitive, physiological and evolutionary mechanisms of these diverse journeys. Here, we aim to encourage broad discussions and promote future studies by highlighting research fields that are characterized by major knowledge gaps or conflicting evidence, namely the fields of navigation, social learning, individual development, energetics and conservation. We approach each topic by summarizing the current state of knowledge and provide a future outlook of ideas and state-of-the-art methods to further advance the field. Integrating knowledge across these disciplines will allow us to understand the adaptive abilities of different species and to develop effective conservation strategies in a rapidly changing world.

Cross-realm assessment of climate change impacts on species' abundance trends.

Climate change, land-use change, pollution and exploitation are among the main drivers of species' population trends; however, their relative importance is much debated. We used a unique collection of over 1,000 local population time series in 22 communities across terrestrial, freshwater and marine realms within central Europe to compare the impacts of long-term temperature change and other environmental drivers from 1980 onwards. To disentangle different drivers, we related species' population trends to species- and driver-specific attributes, such as temperature and habitat preference or pollution tolerance. We found a consistent impact of temperature change on the local abundances of terrestrial species. Populations of warm-dwelling species increased more than those of cold-dwelling species. In contrast, impacts of temperature change on aquatic species' abundances were variable. Effects of temperature preference were more consistent in terrestrial communities than effects of habitat preference, suggesting that the impacts of temperature change have become widespread for recent changes in abundance within many terrestrial communities of central Europe.

Depth-specific and spatiotemporal variation of δ13C and δ15N in Charophytes of Lake Constance: implications for food web studies.

Macrophytes are at the base of many lake food webs providing essential food resources for animals at higher trophic level, such as invertebrates, fish and waterbirds. However, data regarding the spatiotemporal variation in isotopic composition of macrophytes are generally missing. We measured the carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of Charophytes at Lake Constance, where they constitute a major food source for waterbirds. Our data reveal seasonal and site-specific differences as well as depth-specific variations in isotopic carbon values within the littoral zone. Charophytes were enriched in (13)C at sites of higher productivity: the δ(13)C values were high in summer, at shallow and at relatively nutrient-rich sites, and comparatively low in winter, and in deeper and nutrient-poorer sites. In contrast, no temporal or spatial trend was found to explain the variability in the isotopic nitrogen values. These results imply that the seasonal timing of food intake (relative to turnover rates of consumers tissue) and the potential depth of foraging need to be taken into account when calculating the relative contribution of energy sources to diets of consumers such as waterbirds.

Effects of climate and land-use change on species abundance in a Central European bird community.

Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980-1981 to 2000-2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980-1981 and 1990-1992 and between 1990-1992 and 2000-2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds.