The impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal immunisation strategies for the elderly in England.

Pneumococcal disease, presenting as invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) or community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is an important cause of illness and hospitalisation in the elderly. To reduce pneumococcal burden, since 2003, 65-year-olds in England have been offered a 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23). This study compares the impact and cost-effectiveness (CE) of vaccination with the existing PPV23 vaccine to the new 15-and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV15 and PCV20), targeting adults aged 65 or 75 years old. We developed a static Markov model for immunisation against pneumococcal disease, capturing different vaccine effectiveness and immunity waning assumptions, projecting the number of IPD/CAP cases averted over the thirty years following vaccination. Using an economic model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis we evaluated the CE of the different immunisation strategies at current vaccine list prices and the willingness-to-pay at a median threshold of £20,000/QALY and an uncertainty threshold of 90% of simulations below £30,000/QALY. PCV20 averted more IPD and CAP cases than PCV15 or PPV23 over the thirty years following vaccination: 353(360), 145(159) and 150(174) IPD and 581(673), 259(485) and 212(235) CAP cases at a vaccination age of 65(75) under base vaccine effectiveness assumptions. At the listed prices of PCV20 and PPV23 vaccines as of May 2023, both vaccines were cost-effective when vaccinating 65- or 75-year-olds with an ICER threshold of £20,000 per QALY. To achieve the same cost-effectiveness as PPV23, the additional cost of PCV20 should be less than £44(£91) at an ICER threshold of £20,000/QALY (£30,000/QALY) if vaccination age is 65 (or £54(£103) if vaccination age is increased to 75). We showed that both PPV23 and PCV20 were likely to be cost-effective. PCV20 was likely to avert more cases of pneumococcal disease in elderly adults in England than the current PPV23 vaccine, given input assumptions of a higher vaccine effectiveness and slower waning for PCV20.

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions.

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

A Systematic Review of Methods to Predict Weight Trajectories in Health Economic Models of Behavioral Weight-Management Programs: The Potential Role of Psychosocial Factors.

Objectives. There is limited evidence on the long-term effectiveness of behavioral weight-management interventions, and thus, when conducting health economic modeling, assumptions are made about weight trajectories. The aims of this review were to examine these assumptions made about weight trajectories, the evidence sources used to justify them, and the impact of assumptions on estimated cost-effectiveness. Given the evidence that some psychosocial variables are associated with weight-loss trajectories, we also aimed to examine the extent to which psychosocial variables have been used to estimate weight trajectories and whether psychosocial variables were measured within cited evidence sources. Methods. A search of databases (Medline, PubMed, Cochrane, NHS Economic Evaluation, Embase, PSYCinfo, CINAHL, EconLit) was conducted using keywords related to overweight, weight-management, and economic evaluation. Economic evaluations of weight-management interventions that included modeling beyond trial data were included. Results. Within the 38 eligible articles, 6 types of assumptions were reported (weight loss maintained, weight loss regained immediately, linear weight regain, subgroup-specific trajectories, exponential decay of effect, maintenance followed by regain). Fifteen articles cited at least 1 evidence source to support the assumption reported. The assumption used affected the assessment of cost-effectiveness in 9 of the 19 studies that tested this in sensitivity analyses. None of the articles reported using psychosocial factors to estimate weight trajectories. However, psychosocial factors were measured in evidence sources cited by 11 health economic models. Conclusions. Given the range of weight trajectories reported and the potential impact on funding decisions, further research is warranted to investigate how psychosocial variables measured in trials can be used within health economic models to simulate heterogeneous weight trajectories and potentially improve the accuracy of cost-effectiveness estimates.