Insights from Adding Transportation Sector Detail into an Economy-Wide Model: The Case of the ADAGE CGE Model.

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models provide valuable insights into economy-wide impacts of anticipated future structural changes in the transportation sector, yet few CGE models offer detailed transportation representations. We use an enhanced Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) CGE model to incorporate disaggregated transportation modes and technologies in on-road passenger and freight transportation. We assess the impacts of these inclusions on U.S. transportation patterns, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Simulating illustrative global oil price cases with and without transportation detail, we find subsector mode disaggregation and technology additions in a CGE model significantly alter the impacts of oil prices on global trade and freight patterns, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that: (1) alternative technologies are essential for capturing transportation sector impacts, (2) electrification may reduce emissions with electricity decarbonization, and (3) higher oil prices may hasten electrification.

Effective options for addressing air quality- related environmental public health burdens in Saudi Arabia.

Air pollution poses major disease burdens globally and accounts for approximately 10% of deaths annually through its contribution to a variety of respiratory, cardiovascular, and other diseases. The burden of disease is particularly acute in Saudi Arabia, where a mix of anthropogenic and natural sources of air pollution threatens public health. Addressing these burdens requires careful study of the costs and effectiveness of available technologies and policies for reducing emissions (mitigation) and avoiding exposure (adaptation). To help evaluate these options, we conduct a semi-systematic literature review of over 3,000 articles published since 2010 that were identified by searches of literature focused on pollution mitigation and pollution adaptation. We identify a wide variety of effective mitigation and adaptation technologies and find that cost-effectiveness information for policy design is highly variable in the case of mitigation, both within and across pollution source categories; or scarce, in the case of adaptation. While pollution control costs are well studied, policy costs differ; these may vary more by location because of factors such as technology operating conditions and behavioral responses to adaptation initiatives, limiting the generalizability of cost-effectiveness information. Moreover, potential cost advantages of multipollutant control policies are likely to depend on the existing mix of pollution sources and controls. While the policy literature generally favors more flexible compliance mechanisms that increase the cost of polluting to reflect its costs to society, important policy design factors include policy co-benefits, distributional concerns, and inter-regional harmonization. In addition to these key themes, we find that further study is needed both to improve the availability of cost information for adaptation interventions and to localize technology and policy cost estimates to the Saudi context.

Disability-adjusted life years due to chronic and hidden hunger under food system evolution with climate change and adaptation to 2050.

BACKGROUND: Climate change presents an increasing challenge for food-nutrition security. Nutrition metrics calculated from quantitative food system projections can help focus policy actions. OBJECTIVES: To estimate future chronic and hidden hunger disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)-due to protein-energy undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, respectively-using food systems projections to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and agricultural sector investment for adaptation. METHODS: We use a novel combination of a chronic and hidden hunger DALY estimation procedure and food system projections from quantitative foresight modeling to assess DALYs under alternative agricultural sector scenarios to midcentury. RESULTS: Total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs are projected to increase globally out to 2050-by over 30 million compared with 2010-even without climate change. Climate change increases total DALY change between 2010 and 2050 by nearly 10% compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show promise for offsetting these impacts. With investments, DALY incidence due to chronic and hidden hunger is projected to decrease globally in 2050 by 0.24 and 0.56 per 1000 capita, respectively. Total global DALYs will still rise because projected population growth will outpace the rate reduction, especially in Africa south of the Sahara. However, projections also show important regional reductions in total DALYs due to chronic (13.9 million in South Asia, 4.3 million in East Asia and the Pacific) and hidden hunger (7.5 million in East Asia and the Pacific) with investments. CONCLUSIONS: Food system projections to 2050 show a decreasing DALY incidence from both chronic and hidden hunger. Population growth is projected to outpace these improvements and lead to increasing total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs globally, concentrated in Africa south of the Sahara. Climate change increases per-capita chronic and hidden hunger DALY incidence compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show the potential to offset the climate impact on DALYs.

Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) affect global nutrition via effects on agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We combined these effects with economic projections to estimate net changes in nutrient availability between 2010 and 2050. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. We used estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Two independent sources of data, which used different methodologies to determine the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on different key crops, were combined with the modelled food supply results to estimate future nutrient availability. FINDINGS: Although technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO2 fertilisation on yield are projected to increase global availability of dietary protein, iron, and zinc, these increases are moderated by negative effects of climate change affecting productivity and carbon penalties on nutrient content. The carbon nutrient penalty results in decreases in the global availability of dietary protein of 4·1%, iron of 2·8%, and zinc of 2·5% as calculated using one dataset, and decreases in global availability of dietary protein of 2·9%, iron of 3·9%, and zinc of 3·4% using the other dataset. The combined effects of projected increases in atmospheric CO2 (ie, carbon nutrient penalty, CO2 fertilisation, and climate effects on productivity) will decrease growth in the global availability of nutrients by 19·5% for protein, 14·4% for iron, and 14·6% for zinc relative to expected technology and market gains by 2050. The many countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency would continue to be disproportionately affected. INTERPRETATION: This approach is an improvement in estimating future global food security by simultaneously projecting climate change effects on crop productivity and changes in nutrient content under increased concentrations of CO2, which accounts for a much larger effect on nutrient availability than CO2 fertilisation. Regardless of the scenario used to project future consumption patterns, the net effect of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 will slow progress in decreasing global nutrient deficiencies. FUNDING: US Environmental Protection Agency, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CIGAR) Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS).

North Carolina tobacco farmers' changing perceptions of tobacco control and tobacco manufacturers.

PURPOSE: To examine tobacco farmers' attitudes toward tobacco control, public health, and tobacco manufacturers in order to determine the extent to which rapidly changing economic conditions have influenced North Carolina tobacco farmer attitudes in ways that may provide tobacco control advocates with new opportunities to promote tobacco control policies in tobacco-dependent US communities. METHODS: We used data from a longitudinal sample of North Carolina tobacco farmers across 5 waves of data collection (1997-2005) (baseline N = 749 farmers). Generalized linear mixed models were used to examine changes in attitudes toward tobacco control and tobacco manufacturers, controlling for economic dependence on tobacco, and demographic factors. RESULTS: Over the study period there was reduction in tobacco farmers' perceptions of threat from tobacco control initiatives. CONCLUSIONS: These changes in attitude may signal an opportunity for successful tobacco control activity in traditionally tobacco-dependent states and rural communities.

Tobacco farmers and tobacco manufacturers: implications for tobacco control in tobacco-growing developing countries.

Assisting tobacco farmers to transition to non-tobacco alternatives is a key element of comprehensive tobacco control's end-game strategy and specifically required by the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC). We examine the historical relationship between tobacco manufacturers and tobacco farmers in the United States, where the duration of the relationship has been longest and use information obtained to inform possible end-game strategies for tobacco control advocates working with tobacco farmers in developing countries. Tobacco Documents obtained under the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) provide evidence of conflicts between tobacco manufacturers and tobacco farmers. Findings support WHO FCTC articles aimed at helping developing country tobacco farmers adversely affected by tobacco control efforts and highlight difficulties in discouraging tobacco cultivation as long as it remains relatively profitable. We conclude that successful end-game strategies should take a long-term approach aimed at building alliances with tobacco farmers and at creating mechanisms for tobacco farmer investment in local infrastructure.

Avoided deforestation as a greenhouse gas mitigation tool: economic issues.

Tropical deforestation is a significant contributor to accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. GHG emissions from deforestation in the tropics were in the range of 1 to 2 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1990s, which is equivalent to as much as 25% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. While there is growing interest in providing incentives to avoid deforestation and consequently reduce net carbon emissions, there is limited information available on the potential costs of these activities. This paper uses a global forestry and land use model to analyze the potential marginal costs of reducing net carbon emissions by avoiding deforestation in tropical countries. Our estimates suggest that about 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) of emissions reductions could be obtained over the next 30 to 50 yr for $5 per Mg C, and about 1.6 Pg C yr(-1) could be obtained over the same time frame for $100 per Mg C. In addition, the effects of carbon incentives on land use could be substantial. Relative to projected baseline conditions, we find that there would be around 3 million additional hectares (ha) of forestland in 2055 at $5 per Mg C and 422 million ha at $100 per Mg C. Estimates of reductions in area deforested, GHG mitigation potential, and annual land rental payments required are presented, all of which vary by region, carbon price paid, and time frame of mitigation.

Funding of North Carolina tobacco control programs through the Master Settlement Agreement.

Changing political and economic forces in 1 tobacco-dependent state, North Carolina, demonstrate how the interplay between these forces and public health priorities has shaped current allocation of Master Settlement Agreement funds. Allocation patterns demonstrate lawmakers' changing priorities in response to changes in the economic climate; some of the agreement's funds targeted to tobacco farmers appear to reflect objectives favored by tobacco manufacturers. Funds earmarked for health have underfunded youth tobacco prevention and tobacco control initiatives, and spending for tobacco farmers in North Carolina has not lived up to the rhetoric that accompanied the original agreement. We discuss the implications of these findings for future partnerships between public health advocates and workers as well as tobacco control strategies.