Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India.

Brucellosis imposes substantial impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. A stochastic, age-structured model incorporating herd demographics was developed describing within- and between-herd transmission of Brucella abortus in dairy cattle herds. The model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional study conducted in Punjab State of India and used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under consideration. Based on model results, stakeholder acceptance and constraints regarding vaccine supply, vaccination of replacement calves in large farms should be prioritized. Test and removal applied at early stages of the control programme where seroprevalence is high would not constitute an effective or acceptable use of resources because significant numbers of animals would be 'removed' (culled or not used for breeding) based on false positive results. To achieve sustained reductions in brucellosis, policymakers must commit to maintaining vaccination in the long term, which may eventually reduce frequency of infection in the livestock reservoir to a low enough level for elimination to be a realistic objective. This work provides key strategic insights into the control of brucellosis in India, which has the largest cattle population globally, and a general modelling framework for evaluating control strategies in endemic settings.

The effectiveness of treating irrigation water using ultraviolet radiation or sulphuric acid fertilizer for reducing generic Escherichia coli on fresh produce-a controlled intervention trial.

AIMS: The aims of this study were to: (i) estimate the effectiveness of ultraviolet radiation (UV) and sulphuric acid-based fertilizer (SA), at reducing levels of generic Escherichia coli in surface irrigation water and on produce and surface soil in open produce fields; and (ii) describe the population dynamics of generic E. coli in produce fields. METHODS AND RESULTS: Spinach and cantaloupe plots were randomly assigned to control, UV or SA treatment groups. Irrigation water was inoculated with Rifampicin-resistant E. coli prior to treatment. More than 75% of UV- and SA-treated tank water samples had counts below the detection limit, compared to a mean count of 3·3 Log10 CFU per ml before treatment. Levels of Rifampicin-resistant E. coli in soil and produce both increased and decreased over 10-15 days after irrigation, depending on the plot and time-period. CONCLUSIONS: UV and SA treatments effectively reduce the levels of E. coli in surface irrigation water. Their effectiveness at reducing contamination on produce was dependent on environmental conditions. Applying wait-times after irrigation and prior to harvest is not a reliable means of mitigating against contaminated produce. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The results are of timely importance for the agricultural industry as new FSMA guidelines require producers to demonstrate a low microbial load in irrigation water or allow producers to apply a wait-time to mitigate the risk of contaminated produce.

Public perceptions of antibiotic use on dairy farms in the United States.

There has been a global push for improved antimicrobial stewardship, including in animal agriculture, due to growing concerns about antimicrobial resistance. However, little is known about the general public's perceptions of antimicrobial use in animal agriculture. The aim of this study was to explore the US public's perceptions of antibiotic use in dairy farming and how these perceptions influence purchasing decisions. Data from the 2017 Cornell National Social Survey developed in collaboration with the Cornell Survey Research Institute were used to assess the public's perceptions. The Survey Research Institute of Cornell University (Ithaca, NY) administered the survey by telephone to a random sample of 1,000 adults in the continental United States. The survey collected information about perceptions of threat to human health posed by antibiotic use in cows on dairy farms and willingness to pay more for milk from cows raised without antibiotics, as well as several presumed explanatory variables, including respondents' knowledge of antibiotics, beliefs regarding cattle treatment in dairy farming, and 18 sociodemographic characteristics. Data were analyzed using logistic regression. Among respondents, 90.7% (n = 892/983) reported that antibiotic use on dairy farms posed some level of threat to human health and 71.5% (n = 580/811) indicated they would be willing to pay more for milk produced from cows raised without antibiotics. Respondents who believed that antibiotic use in dairy farming posed a moderate to high threat to human health were more likely to be female and report willingness to pay more for milk or not purchase milk. Additionally, consumers' willingness to pay more for milk from cattle raised without antibiotics was associated with the belief that antibiotic use posed some threat to human health, the belief that cows are treated better on organic dairy farms, an annual household income of $50,000 or greater, being born outside the United States, having a liberal social ideology, and being currently or formerly married. These results suggest that the general public's decisions as consumers of dairy products are associated with demographic factors in addition to perceptions of antibiotic use and cattle treatment in dairy farming. The rationale behind such perceptions should be further explored to facilitate consumers' informed decision making about antibiotic use in agriculture, links to cattle treatment, and associated willingness-to-pay attitudes.

Effect of enhanced biosecurity and selected on-farm factors on Campylobacter colonization of chicken broilers.

Human campylobacteriosis is the most commonly reported gastrointestinal bacterial infection in the EU; poultry meat has been identified as the main source of infection. We tested the hypothesis that enhanced biosecurity and other factors such as welfare status, breed, the practice of partial depopulation and number of empty days between flocks may prevent Campylobacter spp. caecal colonization of poultry batches at high levels (>123 000 c.f.u./g in pooled caecal samples). We analysed data from 2314 poultry batches sampled at slaughter in the UK in 2011-2013. We employed random-effects logistic regression to account for clustering of batches within farms and adjust for confounding. We estimated population attributable fractions using adjusted risk ratios. Enhanced biosecurity reduced the odds of colonization at partial depopulation [odds ratio (OR) 0·25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·14-0·47] and, to a lesser extent, at final depopulation (OR 0·47, 95% CI 0·25-0·89). An effect of the type of breed was also found. Under our assumptions, approximately 1/3 of highly colonized batches would be avoided if they were all raised under enhanced biosecurity or without partial depopulation. The results of the study indicate that on-farm measures can play an important role in reducing colonization of broiler chickens with Campylobacter spp. and as a result human exposure.

Assessing the impact of tailored biosecurity advice on farmer behaviour and pathogen presence in beef herds in England and Wales.

The term 'biosecurity' encompasses many measures farmers can take to reduce the risk of pathogen incursion or spread. As the best strategy will vary between settings, veterinarians play an important role in assessing risk and providing advice, but effectiveness requires farmer acceptance and implementation. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of specifically-tailored biosecurity advice packages in reducing endemic pathogen presence on UK beef suckler farms. One hundred and sixteen farms recruited by 10 veterinary practices were followed for three years. Farms were randomly allocated to intervention (receiving specifically-tailored advice, with veterinarians and farmers collaborating to develop an improved biosecurity strategy) or control (receiving general advice) groups. A spreadsheet-based tool was used annually to attribute a score to each farm reflecting risk of entry or spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), bovine herpesvirus-1 (BHV1), Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), Leptospira interrogans serovar hardjo (L. hardjo) and Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis). Objectives of these analyses were to identify evidence of reduction in risk behaviours during the study, as well as evidence of reductions in pathogen presence, as indications of effectiveness. Risk behaviours and pathogen prevalences were examined across study years, and on intervention compared with control farms, using descriptive statistics and multilevel regression. There were significant reductions in risk scores for all five pathogens, regardless of intervention status, in every study year compared with the outset. Animals on intervention farms were significantly less likely than those on control farms to be seropositive for BVDV in years 2 and 3 and for L. hardjo in year 3 of the study. Variations by study year in animal-level odds of seropositivity to BHV1 or MAP were not associated with farm intervention status. All farms had significantly reduced odds of BHV1 seropositivity in year 2 than at the outset. Variations in farm-level MAP seropositivity were not associated with intervention status. There were increased odds of M. bovis on intervention farms compared with control farms at the end of the study. Results suggest a structured annual risk assessment process, conducted as a collaboration between veterinarian and farmer, is valuable in encouraging improved biosecurity practices. There were some indications, but not conclusive evidence, that tailored biosecurity advice packages have potential to reduce pathogen presence. These findings will inform development of a collaborative approach to biosecurity between veterinarians and farmers, including adoption of cost-effective strategies effective across pathogens.

Empirical Bayes estimation of farm prevalence adjusting for multistage sampling and uncertainty in test performance: a Brucella cross-sectional serostudy in southern Kazakhstan.

Estimation of farm prevalence is common in veterinary research. Typically, not all animals within the farm are sampled, and imperfect tests are used. Often, assumptions about herd sizes and sampling proportions are made, which may be invalid in smallholder settings. We propose an alternative method for estimating farm prevalence in the context of Brucella seroprevalence estimation in an endemic region of Kazakhstan. We collected 210 milk samples from Otar district, with a population of about 1000 cattle and 16 000 small ruminants, and tested them using an indirect ELISA. Individual-level prevalence and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Taylor series linearization. A model was developed to estimate the smallholding prevalence, taking into account variable sampling proportions and uncertainty in the test accuracy. We estimate that 73% of households that we sampled had at least one Brucella-seropositive animal (95% credible interval 68-82). We estimate that 58% (95% confidence interval 40-76) of lactating small ruminants and 14% (95% confidence interval 1-28) of lactating cows were seropositive. Our results suggest that brucellosis is highly endemic in the area and conflict with those of the official brucellosis-testing programme, which found that in 2013 0% of cows and 1·7% of small ruminants were seropositive.

Modelling the expected rate of laboratory biosafety breakdowns involving rinderpest virus in the post-eradication era.

Now that we are in the rinderpest post-eradication era, attention is focused on the risk of re-introduction. A semi-quantitative risk assessment identified accidental use of rinderpest virus in laboratories as the most likely cause of re-introduction. However there is little data available on the rates of laboratory biosafety breakdowns in general. In addition, any predictions based on past events are subject to various uncertainties. The aims of this study were therefore to investigate the potential usefulness of historical data for predicting the future risk of rinderpest release via laboratory biosafety breakdowns, and to investigate the impacts of the various uncertainties on these predictions. Data were collected using a worldwide online survey of laboratories, a structured search of ProMED reports and discussion with experts. A stochastic model was constructed to predict the number of laboratory biosafety breakdowns involving rinderpest that will occur over the next 10 years, based on: (1) the historical rate of biosafety breakdowns; and (2) the change in the number of laboratories that will have rinderpest virus in the next 10 years compared to historically. The search identified five breakdowns, all of which occurred during 1970-2000 and all of which were identified via discussions with experts. Assuming that our search for historical events had a sensitivity of over 60% and there has been at least a 40% reduction in the underlying risk (attributable to decreased laboratory activity post eradication) the most likely number of biosafety events worldwide was estimated to be zero over a 10 year period. However, the risk of at least one biosafety breakdown remains greater than 1 in 10,000 unless the sensitivity was at least 99% or the number of laboratories has decreased by at least 99% (based on 2000-2010 during which there were no biosafety breakdowns).

The effect of neutering on the risk of mammary tumours in dogs--a systematic review.

A commonly-stated advantage of neutering bitches is a significant reduction in the risk of mammary tumours, however the evidence for this has not previously been assessed by systematic review. The objectives of this study were to estimate the magnitude and strength of evidence for any effect of neutering, or age of neutering, on the risk of mammary tumours in bitches. A systematic review was conducted based on Cochrane guidelines. Peer-reviewed analytic journal articles in English were eligible and were assessed for risk of bias by two reviewers independently. Of 11,149 search results, 13 reports in English-language peer-reviewed journals addressed the association between neutering/age at neutering and mammary tumours. Nine were judged to have a high risk of bias. The remaining four were classified as having a moderate risk of bias. One study found an association between neutering and a reduced risk of mammary tumours. Two studies found no evidence of an association. One reported "some protective effect" of neutering on the risk of mammary tumours, but no numbers were presented. Due to the limited evidence available and the risk of bias in the published results, the evidence that neutering reduces the risk of mammary neoplasia, and the evidence that age at neutering has an effect, are judged to be weak and are not a sound basis for firm recommendations.

The effect of neutering on the risk of urinary incontinence in bitches - a systematic review.

An increased risk of urinary incontinence in bitches has often been associated with previous ovariohysterectomy but remains controversial. The objective of this study was to evaluate the strength of evidence for an association between neutering or age at neutering and urinary incontinence in bitches and to estimate the magnitude of any effect found. A systematic review of peer-reviewed original English analytic journal articles was conducted, based on Cochrane guidelines (Higgins and Green 2009) Of 1,853 records screened, seven studies were identified that examined the effect of neutering or age at neutering on the risk of urinary incontinence but four were judged to be at high risk of bias. Of the remaining three studies, which were at moderate risk of bias, there was some weak evidence that neutering, particularly before the age of three months, increases the risk of urinary incontinence. However, overall the evidence is not consistent nor strong enough to make firm recommendations on the effect of neutering or age at neutering on the risk of urinary incontinence.