Reduced ecosystem resilience quantifies fine-scale heterogeneity in tropical forest mortality responses to drought.

Sensitivity of forest mortality to drought in carbon-dense tropical forests remains fraught with uncertainty, while extreme droughts are predicted to be more frequent and intense. Here, the potential of temporal autocorrelation of high-frequency variability in Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), an indicator of ecosystem resilience, to predict spatial and temporal variations of forest biomass mortality is evaluated against in situ census observations for 64 site-year combinations in Costa Rican tropical dry forests during the 2015 ENSO drought. Temporal autocorrelation, within the optimal moving window of 24 months, demonstrated robust predictive power for in situ mortality (leave-one-out cross-validation R2  = 0.54), which allows for estimates of annual biomass mortality patterns at 30 m resolution. Subsequent spatial analysis showed substantial fine-scale heterogeneity of forest mortality patterns, largely driven by drought intensity and ecosystem properties related to plant water use such as forest deciduousness and topography. Highly deciduous forest patches demonstrated much lower mortality sensitivity to drought stress than less deciduous forest patches after elevation was controlled. Our results highlight the potential of high-resolution remote sensing to "fingerprint" forest mortality and the significant role of ecosystem heterogeneity in forest biomass resistance to drought.

Functional recovery of secondary tropical forests.

One-third of all Neotropical forests are secondary forests that regrow naturally after agricultural use through secondary succession. We need to understand better how and why succession varies across environmental gradients and broad geographic scales. Here, we analyze functional recovery using community data on seven plant characteristics (traits) of 1,016 forest plots from 30 chronosequence sites across the Neotropics. By analyzing communities in terms of their traits, we enhance understanding of the mechanisms of succession, assess ecosystem recovery, and use these insights to propose successful forest restoration strategies. Wet and dry forests diverged markedly for several traits that increase growth rate in wet forests but come at the expense of reduced drought tolerance, delay, or avoidance, which is important in seasonally dry forests. Dry and wet forests showed different successional pathways for several traits. In dry forests, species turnover is driven by drought tolerance traits that are important early in succession and in wet forests by shade tolerance traits that are important later in succession. In both forests, deciduous and compound-leaved trees decreased with forest age, probably because microclimatic conditions became less hot and dry. Our results suggest that climatic water availability drives functional recovery by influencing the start and trajectory of succession, resulting in a convergence of community trait values with forest age when vegetation cover builds up. Within plots, the range in functional trait values increased with age. Based on the observed successional trait changes, we indicate the consequences for carbon and nutrient cycling and propose an ecologically sound strategy to improve forest restoration success.

A catastrophic tropical drought kills hydraulically vulnerable tree species.

Drought-related tree mortality is now a widespread phenomenon predicted to increase in magnitude with climate change. However, the patterns of which species and trees are most vulnerable to drought, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive, in part due to the lack of relevant data and difficulty of predicting the location of catastrophic drought years in advance. We used long-term demographic records and extensive databases of functional traits and distribution patterns to understand the responses of 20-53 species to an extreme drought in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Costa Rica, which occurred during the 2015 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Overall, species-specific mortality rates during the drought ranged from 0% to 34%, and varied little as a function of tree size. By contrast, hydraulic safety margins correlated well with probability of mortality among species, while morphological or leaf economics spectrum traits did not. This firmly suggests hydraulic traits as targets for future research.

Wet and dry tropical forests show opposite successional pathways in wood density but converge over time.

Tropical forests are converted at an alarming rate for agricultural use and pastureland, but also regrow naturally through secondary succession. For successful forest restoration, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of secondary succession. These mechanisms may vary across forest types, but analyses across broad spatial scales are lacking. Here, we analyse forest recovery using 1,403 plots that differ in age since agricultural abandonment from 50 sites across the Neotropics. We analyse changes in community composition using species-specific stem wood density (WD), which is a key trait for plant growth, survival and forest carbon storage. In wet forest, succession proceeds from low towards high community WD (acquisitive towards conservative trait values), in line with standard successional theory. However, in dry forest, succession proceeds from high towards low community WD (conservative towards acquisitive trait values), probably because high WD reflects drought tolerance in harsh early successional environments. Dry season intensity drives WD recovery by influencing the start and trajectory of succession, resulting in convergence of the community WD over time as vegetation cover builds up. These ecological insights can be used to improve species selection for reforestation. Reforestation species selected to establish a first protective canopy layer should, among other criteria, ideally have a similar WD to the early successional communities that dominate under the prevailing macroclimatic conditions.

Biodiversity recovery of Neotropical secondary forests.

Old-growth tropical forests harbor an immense diversity of tree species but are rapidly being cleared, while secondary forests that regrow on abandoned agricultural lands increase in extent. We assess how tree species richness and composition recover during secondary succession across gradients in environmental conditions and anthropogenic disturbance in an unprecedented multisite analysis for the Neotropics. Secondary forests recover remarkably fast in species richness but slowly in species composition. Secondary forests take a median time of five decades to recover the species richness of old-growth forest (80% recovery after 20 years) based on rarefaction analysis. Full recovery of species composition takes centuries (only 34% recovery after 20 years). A dual strategy that maintains both old-growth forests and species-rich secondary forests is therefore crucial for biodiversity conservation in human-modified tropical landscapes.

Legume abundance along successional and rainfall gradients in Neotropical forests.

The nutrient demands of regrowing tropical forests are partly satisfied by nitrogen-fixing legume trees, but our understanding of the abundance of those species is biased towards wet tropical regions. Here we show how the abundance of Leguminosae is affected by both recovery from disturbance and large-scale rainfall gradients through a synthesis of forest inventory plots from a network of 42 Neotropical forest chronosequences. During the first three decades of natural forest regeneration, legume basal area is twice as high in dry compared with wet secondary forests. The tremendous ecological success of legumes in recently disturbed, water-limited forests is likely to be related to both their reduced leaflet size and ability to fix N2, which together enhance legume drought tolerance and water-use efficiency. Earth system models should incorporate these large-scale successional and climatic patterns of legume dominance to provide more accurate estimates of the maximum potential for natural nitrogen fixation across tropical forests.

Chronosequence predictions are robust in a Neotropical secondary forest, but plots miss the mark.

Tropical secondary forests (TSF) are a global carbon sink of 1.6 Pg C/year. However, TSF carbon uptake is estimated using chronosequence studies that assume differently aged forests can be used to predict change in aboveground biomass density (AGBD) over time. We tested this assumption using two airborne lidar datasets separated by 11.5 years over a Neotropical landscape. Using data from 1998, we predicted canopy height and AGBD within 1.1 and 10.3% of observations in 2009, with higher accuracy for forest height than AGBD and for older TSFs in comparison to younger ones. This result indicates that the space-for-time assumption is robust at the landscape-scale. However, since lidar measurements of secondary tropical forest are rare, we used the 1998 lidar dataset to test how well plot-based studies quantify the mean TSF height and biomass in a landscape. We found that the sample area required to produce estimates of height or AGBD close to the landscape mean is larger than the typical area sampled in secondary forest chronosequence studies. For example, estimating AGBD within 10% of the landscape mean requires more than thirty 0.1 ha plots per age class, and more total area for larger plots. We conclude that under-sampling in ground-based studies may introduce error into estimations of the TSF carbon sink, and that this error can be reduced by more extensive use of lidar measurements.

Effects of soil type and light on height growth, biomass partitioning, and nitrogen dynamics on 22 species of tropical dry forest tree seedlings: Comparisons between legumes and nonlegumes.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The seedling stage is particularly vulnerable to resource limitation, with potential consequences for community composition. We investigated how light and soil variation affected early growth, biomass partitioning, morphology, and physiology of 22 tree species common in tropical dry forest, including eight legumes. Our hypothesis was that legume seedlings are better at taking advantage of increased resource availability, which contributes to their successful regeneration in tropical dry forests. METHODS: We grew seedlings in a full-factorial design under two light levels in two soil types that differed in nutrient concentrations and soil moisture. We measured height biweekly and, at final harvest, biomass partitioning, internode segments, leaf carbon, nitrogen, δ13C, and δ15N. KEY RESULTS: Legumes initially grew taller and maintained that height advantage over time under all experimental conditions. Legumes also had the highest final total biomass and water-use efficiency in the high-light and high-resource soil. For nitrogen-fixing legumes, the amount of nitrogen derived from fixation was highest in the richer soil. Although seed mass tended to be larger in legumes, seed size alone did not account for all the differences between legumes and nonlegumes. Both belowground and aboveground resources were limiting to early seedling growth and function. CONCLUSIONS: Legumes may have a different regeneration niche, in that they germinate rapidly and grow taller than other species immediately after germination, maximizing their performance when light and belowground resources are readily available, and potentially permitting them to take advantage of high light, nutrient, and water availability at the beginning of the wet season.

Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics.

Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km(2) of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Diversity in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests.

We assessed whether diversity in plant hydraulic traits can explain the observed diversity in plant responses to water stress in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was updated with a trait-driven mechanistic plant hydraulic module, as well as novel drought-phenology and plant water stress schemes. Four plant functional types were parameterized on the basis of meta-analysis of plant hydraulic traits. Simulations from both the original and the updated ED2 were evaluated against 5 yr of field data from a Costa Rican SDTF site and remote-sensing data over Central America. The updated model generated realistic plant hydraulic dynamics, such as leaf water potential and stem sap flow. Compared with the original ED2, predictions from our novel trait-driven model matched better with observed growth, phenology and their variations among functional groups. Most notably, the original ED2 produced unrealistically small leaf area index (LAI) and underestimated cumulative leaf litter. Both of these biases were corrected by the updated model. The updated model was also better able to simulate spatial patterns of LAI dynamics in Central America. Plant hydraulic traits are intercorrelated in SDTFs. Mechanistic incorporation of plant hydraulic traits is necessary for the simulation of spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation dynamics in SDTFs in vegetation models.

Biomass resilience of Neotropical secondary forests.

Land-use change occurs nowhere more rapidly than in the tropics, where the imbalance between deforestation and forest regrowth has large consequences for the global carbon cycle. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the rate of biomass recovery in secondary forests, and how these rates are influenced by climate, landscape, and prior land use. Here we analyse aboveground biomass recovery during secondary succession in 45 forest sites and about 1,500 forest plots covering the major environmental gradients in the Neotropics. The studied secondary forests are highly productive and resilient. Aboveground biomass recovery after 20 years was on average 122 megagrams per hectare (Mg ha(-1)), corresponding to a net carbon uptake of 3.05 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), 11 times the uptake rate of old-growth forests. Aboveground biomass stocks took a median time of 66 years to recover to 90% of old-growth values. Aboveground biomass recovery after 20 years varied 11.3-fold (from 20 to 225 Mg ha(-1)) across sites, and this recovery increased with water availability (higher local rainfall and lower climatic water deficit). We present a biomass recovery map of Latin America, which illustrates geographical and climatic variation in carbon sequestration potential during forest regrowth. The map will support policies to minimize forest loss in areas where biomass resilience is naturally low (such as seasonally dry forest regions) and promote forest regeneration and restoration in humid tropical lowland areas with high biomass resilience.

Nitrogen, phosphorus, and cation use efficiency in stands of regenerating tropical dry forest.

Plants on infertile soils exhibit physiological and morphological traits that support conservative internal nutrient cycling. However, potential trade-offs among use efficiencies for N, P, and cations are not well explored in species-rich habitats where multiple elements may limit plant production. We examined uptake efficiency and use efficiency of N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Al, and Na in plots of regenerating tropical dry forests spanning a gradient of soil fertility. Our aim was to determine whether plant responses to multiple elements are correlated, or whether there are trade-offs among exploitation strategies across stands varying in community composition, soil quality, and successional stage. For all elements, both uptake efficiency and use efficiency decreased as availability of the corresponding element increased. Plant responses to N, Na, and Al were uncoupled from uptake and use efficiencies for P and essential base cations, which were tightly correlated. N and P use efficiencies were associated with shifts in plant species composition along the soil fertility gradient, and there was also a trend towards increasing N use efficiency with stand age. N uptake efficiency was positively correlated with the abundance of tree species that associate with ectomycorrhizal fungi. Taken together, our results suggest that successional processes and local species composition interact to regulate plant responses to availability of multiple resources. Successional tropical dry forests appear to employ different strategies to maximize response to N vs. P and K.