Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area.

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.

A 4-year study of bovine reproductive hormones that are induced by pharmaceuticals and appear as steroid estrogenic pollutants in the resulting slurry, using in vitro and instrumental analytical methods.

The main objective of the research was to study the environmental "price" of the large-scale, milk production from a rarely known perspective, from the mapping of the estrogenic footprint (the amount of oestrus-inducer hormonal products, and the generated endoestrogens) in the resulting slurry in a dairy cow farm. These micropollutants are endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and can be dangerous to the normal reproductive functions even at ng/kg concentration. One of them, 17ß-estradiol, has a 20,000 times stronger estrogenic effect than bisphenol-A, a widely known EDC of industrial origin. While most studies on EDCs are short-term and/or laboratory based, this study is longitudinal and field-based. We sampled the slurry pool on a quarterly basis between 2017 and 2020. Our purpose was testing the estrogenic effects using a dual approach. As an effect-based, holistic method, we developed and used the YES (yeast estrogen screen) test employing the genetically modified Saccharomyces cerevisiae BJ3505 strain which contains human estrogenic receptor. For testing exact molecules, UHPLC-FLD was used. Our study points out that slurry contains a growing amount of EDCs with the risk of penetrating into the soil, crops and the food chain. Considering the Green Chemistry concept, the most benign ways to prevent of the pollution of the slurry is choosing appropriate oestrus-inducing veterinary pharmaceuticals (OIVPs) and the separation of the solid and liquid parts with adequate treatment methods. To our knowledge, this is the first paper on the adaptation of the YES test for medicine and slurry samples, extending its applicability. The adapted YES test turned out to be a sensitive, robust and reliable method for testing samples with potential estrogenic effect. Our dual approach was successful in evaluating the estrogenic effect of the slurry samples.

Empirical delineation of the forest-steppe zone is supported by macroclimate.

Eurasian forest-steppes form a 9000-km-long transitional zone between temperate forests and steppes, featuring a complex mosaic of herbaceous and woody habitats. Due to its heterogeneity regarding climate, topography and vegetation, the forest-steppe zone has been divided into several regions. However, a continental-scale empirical delineation of the zone and its regions was missing until recently. Finally, a map has been proposed by Erdos et al. based on floristic composition, physiognomy, relief, and climate. By conducting predictive distribution modeling and hierarchical clustering, here we compared this expert delineation with the solely macroclimate-based predictions and clusters. By assessing the discrepancies, we located the areas where refinement of the delineation or the inclusion of non-macroclimatic predictors should be considered. Also, we identified the most important variables for predicting the existence of the Eurasian forest-steppe zone and its regions. The predicted probability of forest-steppe occurrence showed a very high agreement with the expert delineation. The previous delineation of the West Siberia region was confirmed by our results, while that of the Inner Asia region was the one least confirmed by the macroclimate-based model predictions. The appropriate delineation of the Southeast Europe region from the East Europe region should be refined by further research, and splitting the Far East region into a southern and northern subregion should also be considered. The main macroclimatic predictors of the potential distribution of the zone and its regions were potential evapotranspiration (zone and regions), annual mean temperature (regions), precipitation of driest quarter (regions) and precipitation of warmest quarter (zone), but the importance of climatic variables for prediction showed great variability among the fitted predictive distribution models.

How climate, topography, soils, herbivores, and fire control forest-grassland coexistence in the Eurasian forest-steppe.

Recent advances in ecology and biogeography demonstrate the importance of fire and large herbivores - and challenge the primacy of climate - to our understanding of the distribution, stability, and antiquity of forests and grasslands. Among grassland ecologists, particularly those working in savannas of the seasonally dry tropics, an emerging fire-herbivore paradigm is generally accepted to explain grass dominance in climates and on soils that would otherwise permit development of closed-canopy forests. By contrast, adherents of the climate-soil paradigm, particularly foresters working in the humid tropics or temperate latitudes, tend to view fire and herbivores as disturbances, often human-caused, which damage forests and reset succession. Towards integration of these two paradigms, we developed a series of conceptual models to explain the existence of an extensive temperate forest-grassland mosaic that occurs within a 4.7 million km2 belt spanning from central Europe through eastern Asia. The Eurasian forest-steppe is reminiscent of many regions globally where forests and grasslands occur side-by-side with stark boundaries. Our conceptual models illustrate that if mean climate was the only factor, forests should dominate in humid continental regions and grasslands should prevail in semi-arid regions, but that extensive mosaics would not occur. By contrast, conceptual models that also integrate climate variability, soils, topography, herbivores, and fire depict how these factors collectively expand suitable conditions for forests and grasslands, such that grasslands may occur in more humid regions and forests in more arid regions than predicted by mean climate alone. Furthermore, boundaries between forests and grasslands are reinforced by vegetation-fire, vegetation-herbivore, and vegetation-microclimate feedbacks, which limit tree establishment in grasslands and promote tree survival in forests. Such feedbacks suggest that forests and grasslands of the Eurasian forest-steppe are governed by ecological dynamics that are similar to those hypothesised to maintain boundaries between tropical forests and savannas. Unfortunately, the grasslands of the Eurasian forest-steppe are sometimes misinterpreted as deforested or otherwise degraded vegetation. In fact, the grasslands of this region provide valuable ecosystem services, support a high diversity of plants and animals, and offer critical habitat for endangered large herbivores. We suggest that a better understanding of the fundamental ecological controls that permit forest-grassland coexistence could help us prioritise conservation and restoration of the Eurasian forest-steppe for biodiversity, climate adaptation, and pastoral livelihoods. Currently, these goals are being undermined by tree-planting campaigns that view the open grasslands as opportunities for afforestation. Improved understanding of the interactive roles of climate variability, soils, topography, fire, and herbivores will help scientists and policymakers recognise the antiquity of the grasslands of the Eurasian forest-steppe.

Foraging decisions with conservation consequences: Interaction between beavers and invasive tree species.

Herbivore species can either hinder or accelerate the invasion of woody species through selective utilization. Therefore, an exploration of foraging decisions can contribute to the understanding and forecasting of woody plant invasions. Despite the large distribution range and rapidly growing abundance of beaver species across the Northern Hemisphere, only a few studies focus on the interaction between beavers and invasive woody plants.We collected data on the woody plant supply and utilization at 20 study sites in Hungary, at two fixed distances from the water. The following parameters were registered: taxon, trunk diameter, type of utilization, and carving depth. Altogether 5401 units (trunks and thick branches) were identified individually. We developed a statistical protocol that uses a dual approach, combining whole-database and transect-level analyses to examine foraging strategy.Taxon, diameter, and distance from water all had a significant effect on foraging decisions. The order of preference for the four most abundant taxa was Populus spp. (softwood), Salix spp. (softwood), Fraxinus pennsylvanica (invasive hardwood), and Acer negundo (invasive hardwood). The diameter influenced the type of utilization, as units with greater diameter were rather carved or debarked than felled. According to the central-place foraging strategy, the intensity of the foraging decreased with the distance from the water, while both the taxon and diameter selectivity increased. This suggests stronger modification of the woody vegetation directly along the waterbank, together with a weaker impact further from the water.In contrast to invasive trees, for which utilization occurred almost exclusively in the smallest diameter class, even the largest softwood trees were utilized by means of carving and debarking. This may lead to the gradual loss of softwoods or the transformation of them into shrubby forms. After the return of the beaver, mature stages of softwood stands and thus the structural heterogeneity of floodplain woody vegetation could be supported by the maintenance of sufficiently large active floodplains.The beaver accelerates the shift of the canopy layer's species composition toward invasive hardwood species, supporting the enemy release hypothesis. However, the long-term impact will also depend on how plants respond to different types of utilization and on their ability to regenerate, which are still unexplored issues in this environment. Our results should be integrated with knowledge about factors influencing the competitiveness of the studied native and invasive woody species to support floodplain conservation and reconstruction.

Controlling invasive alien shrub species, enhancing biodiversity and mitigating flood risk: A win-win-win situation in grazed floodplain plantations.

The high nature conservation value of floodplain ecosystems is severely threatened by invasive alien species. Besides adversely affecting native biodiversity, these species also pose a major threat from a wider socio-ecological perspective (e.g. 'roughness' increases flood risk). Finding options to control dense shrub layers consisting of invasive alien species is therefore of high priority for multipurpose management. We studied cattle grazing impacts on the cover, composition and diversity of the herb and shrub layers in floodplain poplar plantations along the Tamis river, Serbia. Non-grazed, moderately grazed, intensively grazed and resting place stands were sampled in five locations in three sampling points. Non-grazed stands had substantially higher cover of invasive alien shrub species (on average 65%) than moderately and intensively grazed stands, and resting places (5.17, 0.02 and 0.00%, respectively), but without considerable differences between the grazing intensity categories. The number of invasive alien species in the shrub layer decreased considerably from non-grazed to intensively grazed stands. Species composition in the herb layer changed from non-grazed to intensively grazed stands, while resting places differed substantially from the other categories. Total species richness, richness of native generalist herbaceous grassland species, and the cover of palatable grasses were the highest in moderately and intensively grazed stands. Our results suggest that cattle grazing in floodplains is effective at controlling invasive alien shrub species. Furthermore, continuous moderate or intensive grazing would contribute to multifunctional management of invaded floodplains by enhancing local biodiversity, reducing flood risk, and providing additional grazing areas for the local community.

Investigation of the vulnerability of a partly covered karst feature in Veszprém, Hungary.

Karst aquifers represent the most important renewable sources of drinking water. Because anthropogenic influences threaten the integrity of karst aquifers, it is important to determine the soil erosion and karst denudation rates. In order to study the complex signs of degradation processes of the karst, a paleodoline (paleo-polje) was selected near to the county seat Veszprém, Hungary. It was found that gamma radiation measurements can be a useful tool to detect the level of soil erosion since the low gamma radiation indicates the surface proximity of the carbonate bedrock. The level of gamma radiation also predicts the potential agricultural usability of a site. Both the patterns of contamination and the erosion attack zone are strongly defined by the relief. The gullies and the deepest parts of the karstic landscape are the traps of organic materials and pollutants. The amounts of 40K and its decay products originate from the covering sediment and negatively correlate with the soil depth. In the case of covered karsts, the measuring of the concentration of radionuclides and field gamma-ray dose measurement together can characterize the general horizontal and vertical trends of soil erosion, the potential land use, and the vegetation.

Beyond the Forest-Grassland Dichotomy: The Gradient-Like Organization of Habitats in Forest-Steppes.

Featuring a transitional zone between closed forests and treeless steppes, forest-steppes cover vast areas, and have outstanding conservation importance. The components of this mosaic ecosystem can conveniently be classified into two basic types, forests and grasslands. However, this dichotomic classification may not fit reality as habitat organization can be much more complex. In this study, our aim was to find out if the main habitat types can be grouped into two distinct habitat categories (which would support the dichotomic description), or a different paradigm better fits this complex ecosystem. We selected six main habitats of sandy forest-steppes, and, using 176 relevés, we compared their vegetation based on species composition (NMDS ordination, number of common species of the studied habitats), relative ecological indicator values (mean indicators for temperature, soil moisture, and light availability), and functional species groups (life-form categories, geoelement types, and phytosociological preference groups). According to the species composition, we found a well-defined gradient, with the following habitat order: large forest patches, medium forest patches, small forest patches, north-facing edges, south-facing edges, and grasslands. A considerable number of species were shared among all habitats, while the number of species restricted to certain habitat types was also numerous, especially for north-facing edges. The total (i.e., pooled) number of species peaked near the middle of the gradient, in north-facing edges. The relative ecological indicator values and functional species groups showed mostly gradual changes from the large forest patches to the grasslands. Our results indicate that the widely used dichotomic categorization of forest-steppe habitats into forest and grassland patches is too simplistic, potentially resulting in a considerable loss of information. We suggest that forest-steppe vegetation better fits the gradient-based paradigm of landscape structure, which is able to reflect continuous variations.

The potential impact of climate change on the transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Hungary.

BACKGROUND: Impact of climate change on tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle in a given region depends on how the region-specific climate change patterns influence tick population development processes and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) transmission dynamics involving both systemic and co-feeding transmission routes. Predicting the transmission risk of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with projected climate conditions is essential for planning public health interventions including vaccination programs to mitigate the TBE incidence in the inhabitants and travelers. We have previously developed and validated a mathematical model for retroactive analysis of weather fluctuation on TBE prevalence in Hungary, and we aim to show in this research that this model provides an effective tool for projecting TBEV transmission risk in the enzootic cycle. METHODS: Using the established model of TBEV transmission and the climate predictions of the Vas county in western Hungary in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, we quantify the risk of TBEV transmission using a series of summative indices - the basic reproduction number, the duration of infestation, the stage-specific tick densities, and the accumulated (tick) infections due to co-feeding transmission. We also measure the significance of co-feeding transmission by observing the cumulative number of new transmissions through the non-systemic transmission route. RESULTS: The transmission potential and the risk in the study site are expected to increase along with the increase of the temperature in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. This increase will be facilitated by the expected extension of the tick questing season and the increase of the numbers of susceptible ticks (larval and nymphal) and the number of infected nymphal ticks co-feeding on the same hosts, leading to compounded increase of infections through the non-systemic transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The developed mathematical model provides an effective tool for predicting TBE prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle, by integrating climate projection with emerging knowledge about the region-specific tick ecological and pathogen enzootic processes (through model parametrization fitting to historical data). Model projects increasing co-feeding transmission and prevalence of TBEV in a recognized TBE endemic region, so human risk of TBEV infection is likely increasing unless public health interventions are enhanced.

Assessing systemic and non-systemic transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Hungary.

Estimating the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) infection risk under substantial uncertainties of the vector abundance, environmental condition and human-tick interaction is important for evidence-informed public health intervention strategies. Estimating this risk is computationally challenging since the data we observe, i.e., the human incidence of TBE, is only the final outcome of the tick-host transmission and tick-human contact processes. The challenge also increases since the complex TBE virus (TBEV) transmission cycle involves the non-systemic route of transmission between co-feeding ticks. Here, we describe the hidden Markov transition process, using a novel TBEV transmission-human case reporting cascade model that couples the susceptible-infected compartmental model describing the TBEV transmission dynamics among ticks, animal hosts and humans, with the stochastic observation process of human TBE reporting given infection. By fitting human incidence data in Hungary to the transmission model, we estimate key parameters relevant to the tick-host interaction and tick-human transmission. We then use the parametrized cascade model to assess the transmission potential of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with respect to the climate change, and to evaluate the contribution of non-systemic transmission. We show that the TBEV transmission potential in the enzootic cycle has been increasing along with the increased temperature though the TBE human incidence has dropped since 1990s, emphasizing the importance of persistent public health interventions. By demonstrating that non-systemic transmission pathway is a significant factor in the transmission of TBEV in Hungary, we conclude that the risk of TBE infection will be highly underestimated if the non-systemic transmission route is neglected in the risk assessment.

Impacts of urbanisation level and distance from potential natural mosquito breeding habitats on the abundance of canine dirofilariosis.

Dirofilariosis is an emerging mosquito-borne veterinary and medical problem in the Northern hemisphere. The ecological investigation of 56 canine dirofilariosis cases in new endemic locations was performed in Szeged, Hungary. The aim was to analyse the influence of the spatial patterns of dog abundance and the potential mosquito breeding habitats on the spatial occurrence patterns of dirofilariosis in the city of Szeged. The limnoecological characterisation was based on the fluvial habitat classification of Amoros of natural water bodies; the built environment was evaluated using the UrbanisationScore urbanisation intensity measuring software. Dirofilaria immitis accounted for 51% and D. repens for 34.3% of the dirofilariosis cases, and in 20% of the cases only the Knott's test was positive. It was concluded that most of the cases were related to locations with a medium to high urbanisation index, although the proximity of mosquito-bearing waters also played an important role in the observed spatial infection patterns. We found that the distance from potential mosquito habitats and the urbanisation intensity determine the abundance of dirofilariosis in urban environments.

Potential urban distribution of Phlebotomus mascittii Grassi and Phlebotomus neglectus Tonn. (Diptera: Psychodidae) in 2021-50 in Budapest, Hungary.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: In the Carpathian Basin, the most northern populations of Phlebotomus (sandfly) species, including the two studied species (Phlebotomus mascittii and Phlebotomus neglectus), are reported from central Hungary. The most important limiting factor of the distribution of Phlebotomus species in the region is the annual minimum temperature which may be positively affected by the urban heat island and the climate change in the future. The main objective of the study is to prove and predict the overwintering possibility of Phlebotomus species in urban environment. METHODS: Based on the latest reports of occurrence of sandfly species, climate envelope model was built for the period 1961-90 and 2025-50 to project the potential urban distribution of the species. The climatic data were obtained from RegCM regional climate model and MODIS satellite images. RESULTS: The recent occurrence of the species in central Hungary indicates that Phlebotomus species can overwinter in non-heated shelters in built environment. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: Jointly heat island and the increase of minimum temperature in winter due to climate change seem to be able to provide suitable environment for the studied species in urban areas to a great extent.