Combining potential and realized distribution modeling of telemetry data for a bycatch risk assessment.

Establishing marine species distributions is essential for guiding management and can be estimated by identifying potential favorable habitat at a population level and incorporating individual-level information (e.g., movement constraints) to inform realized space use. In this research, we applied a combined modeling approach to tracking data of adult female and juvenile South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens; n = 9) from July to November 2011 to make habitat predictions for populations in northern Chile. We incorporated topographic and oceanographic predictors with sea lion locations and environmentally based pseudo-absences in a generalized linear model for estimating population-level distribution. For the individual approach, we used a generalized linear mixed-effects model with a negative exponential kernel variable to quantify distance-dependent movement from the colony. Spatial predictions from both approaches were combined in a bivariate color map to identify areas of agreement. We then used a GIS-based risk model to characterize bycatch risk in industrial and artisanal purse-seine fisheries based on fishing set data from scientific observers and artisanal fleet logs (2010-2015), the bivariate sea lion distribution map, and criteria ratings of interaction characteristics. Our results indicate population-level associations with productive, shallow, low slope waters, near to river-mouths, and with high eddy activity. Individual distribution was restricted to shallow slopes and cool waters. Variation between approaches may reflect intrinsic factors restricting use of otherwise favorable habitat; however, sample size was limited, and additional data are needed to establish the full range of individual-level distributions. Our bycatch risk outputs identified highest risk from industrial fisheries operating nearshore (within 5 NM) and risk was lower, overall, for the artisanal fleet. This research demonstrates the potential for integrating potential and realized distribution models within a spatial risk assessment and fills a gap in knowledge on this species' distribution, providing a basis for targeting bycatch mitigation outreach and interventions.

Abundance and distribution patterns of cetaceans and their overlap with vessel traffic in the Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Chile.

The Humboldt Current Ecosystem (HCE) is one of the most productive marine ecosystems, sustaining one of the largest fishing industries in the world. Although several species of cetaceans are known to inhabit these productive waters, quantitative assessments of their abundance and distribution patterns are scarce and patchy. Here, we present the first abundance and distribution estimates for fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus), southeast Pacific blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus), sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus), dusky dolphin (Lagenorhynchus obscurus), and common dolphin (Delphinus spp.) in the entire Chilean portion of the HCE. Line transect surveys were conducted during 2016-2021 between 18° S and 41° S and up to ~ 200 km offshore, and data were analyzed using distance sampling methods. Group counts were modelled as a function of environmental variables using single step Bayesian Binomial N-mixture model (BNMM), which allows full uncertainty propagation between model components. By using spatially explicit predictions of cetacean densities and observed vessel densities in the HCE, we provide quantitative assessments on the relative probability of cetaceans encountering vessels (RPCEV). Dusky dolphin and fin whale showed the largest distribution overlap with industrial and artisanal fishery fleets. Our results highlight areas where effort should be prioritized to address the extant but unquantified negative interactions between vessels and cetaceans in Chilean HCE.

Individual and joint estimation of humpback whale migratory patterns and their environmental drivers in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean.

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) perform seasonal migrations from high latitude feeding grounds to low latitude breeding and calving grounds. Feeding grounds at polar regions are currently experiencing major ecosystem modifications, therefore, quantitatively assessing species responses to habitat characteristics is crucial for understanding how whales might respond to such modifications. We analyzed satellite telemetry data from 22 individual humpback whales in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean (SWA). Tagging effort was divided in two periods, 2003-2012 and 2016-2019. Correlations between whale's movement parameters and environmental variables were used as proxy for inferring behavioral responses to environmental variation. Two versions of a covariate-driven continuous-time correlated random-walk state-space model, were fitted to the data: i) Population-level models (P-models), which assess correlation parameters pooling data across all individuals or groups, and ii) individual-level models (I-models), fitted independently for each tagged whale. Area of Restricted Search behavior (slower and less directionally persistent movement, ARS) was concentrated at cold waters south of the Polar Front (~ 50°S). The best model showed that ARS was expected to occur in coastal areas and over ridges and seamounts. Ice coverage during August of each year was a consistent predictor of ARS across models. Wind stress curl and sea surface temperature anomalies were also correlated with movement parameters but elicited larger inter-individual variation. I-models were consistent with P-models' predictions for the case of females accompanied by calves (mothers), while males and those of undetermined sex (males +) presented more variability as a group. Spatial predictions of humpback whale behavioral responses showed that feeding grounds for this population are concentrated in the complex system of islands, ridges, and rises of the Scotia Sea and the northern Weddell Ridge. More southernly incursions were observed in recent years, suggesting a potential response to increased temperature and large ice coverage reduction observed in the late 2010s. Although, small sample size and differences in tracking duration precluded appropriately testing predictions for such a distributional shift, our modelling framework showed the efficiency of borrowing statistical strength during data pooling, while pinpointing where more complexity should be added in the future as additional data become available.

Defining priority areas for blue whale conservation and investigating overlap with vessel traffic in Chilean Patagonia, using a fast-fitting movement model.

Defining priority areas and risk evaluation is of utmost relevance for endangered species` conservation. For the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), we aim to assess environmental habitat selection drivers, priority areas for conservation and overlap with vessel traffic off northern Chilean Patagonia (NCP). For this, we implemented a single-step continuous-time correlated-random-walk model which accommodates observational error and movement parameters variation in relation to oceanographic variables. Spatially explicit predictions of whales' behavioral responses were combined with density predictions from previous species distribution models (SDM) and vessel tracking data to estimate the relative probability of vessels encountering whales and identifying areas where interaction is likely to occur. These estimations were conducted independently for the aquaculture, transport, artisanal fishery, and industrial fishery fleets operating in NCP. Blue whale movement patterns strongly agreed with SDM results, reinforcing our knowledge regarding oceanographic habitat selection drivers. By combining movement and density modeling approaches we provide a stronger support for purported priority areas for blue whale conservation and how they overlap with the main vessel traffic corridor in the NCP. The aquaculture fleet was one order of magnitude larger than any other fleet, indicating it could play a decisive role in modulating potential negative vessel-whale interactions within NCP.

From Chilean Patagonia to Galapagos, Ecuador: novel insights on blue whale migratory pathways along the Eastern South Pacific.

BACKGROUND: The most traditional scheme for migration among baleen whales comprises yearly migrations between productive waters at high latitude summer feeding grounds and warmer waters at lower latitudes where whales calve and mate, but rarely feed. Evidence indicates, however, that large departures from this scheme exist among populations and individuals. Furthermore, for some populations there is virtually no information on migratory pathways and destinations. Such is the case of Chilean blue whales throughout the Eastern South Pacific; hence, the goal of this study was to assess its migratory behavior. METHODS: Dedicated marine surveys and satellite tagging efforts were undertaken during the austral summer and early autumn on blue whale feeding grounds off Chilean Northern Patagonia (CNP) during 2013, 2015 and 2016. Positional data derived from satellite tags regarding movement patterns and behavior were analyzed using Bayesian switching first-difference correlated random walk models. RESULTS: We instrumented 10 CNP blue whales with satellite transmitters and documented individual variation in departure time, northbound migratory routes and potential wintering grounds. The onset of migration occurred from mid/late austral autumn to well into the austral winter. Blue whales moved in various directions, but ultimately converged toward a general NW movement direction along a wide corridor exceeding 2,000 km. Area-Restricted Search behavior was exhibited within fjords and channels of CNP and also South of Galapagos Archipelago (GA) and northern Peru, but never during migration. Interestingly, dive profiles for one whale that reached GA showed a sharp and consistent increase in depth north of 5°S and extreme deep dives of up to 330 m. DISCUSSION: Information derived from satellite tagged blue whales in this study is the first of its kind off the Eastern Southern Pacific. Our results provide valuable information on their migratory timing, routes and behavior on their northbound migration, particularly regarding the varied migratory plasticity for this particular population. Our results also highlight the first record of two complete migratory paths between CNP and GA and strengthen the hypothesis that GA waters correspond to a potential wintering destination for CNP blue whales. We further hypothesize that this area might be selected because of its biological productivity, which could provide feeding opportunities during the breeding season. Our results suggest that special efforts should be put forward to identify blue whale critical areas and understand key behavioral aspects in order to provide the basis for their conservation on a regional context (i.e., reducing potential ship strike and promote Marine Protected Area (MPA) implementation in Chile, Ecuador and Peru). Indeed, we suggest joint blue whale conservation efforts at the regional level in order to identify and determine potential threats and impacts and, most importantly, implement prospective management actions.