Antigenic distance between primary and secondary dengue infections correlates with disease risk.

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection even in previously exposed individuals. In addition, for some pathogens, such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains unclear whether the antigenic distances between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalizations across years. Here, we develop a framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterization of viruses with details on hospitalized cases from 21 years of dengue surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand, to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We found that the risk of hospitalization depended on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximized at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest that immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk and provide a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.

Correction: Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793.].

Antigenic diversity and dengue disease risk.

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection. In addition, for some pathogens such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease, through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains a mystery whether the antigenic distance between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalisations across years. Here we develop an inferential framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterisation of viruses, and hospitalised cases from 21 years of surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We find that the risk of hospitalisation depends on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximised at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk, and provides a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.

Intrahost SARS-CoV-2 k-mer identification method (iSKIM) for rapid detection of mutations of concern reveals emergence of global mutation patterns.

Despite unprecedented global sequencing and surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, timely identification of the emergence and spread of novel variants of concern (VoCs) remains a challenge. Several million raw genome sequencing runs are now publicly available. We sought to survey these datasets for intrahost variation to study emerging mutations of concern. We developed iSKIM ("intrahost SARS-CoV-2 k-mer identification method") to relatively quickly and efficiently screen the many SARS-CoV-2 datasets to identify intrahost mutations belonging to lineages of concern. Certain mutations surged in frequency as intrahost minor variants just prior to, or while lineages of concern arose. The Spike N501Y change common to several VoCs was found as a minor variant in 834 samples as early as October 2020. This coincides with the timing of the first detected samples with this mutation in the Alpha/B.1.1.7 and Beta/B.1.351 lineages. Using iSKIM, we also found that Spike L452R was detected as an intrahost minor variant as early as September 2020, prior to the observed rise of the Epsilon/B.1.429/B.1.427 lineages in late 2020. iSKIM rapidly screens for mutations of interest in raw data, prior to genome assembly, and can be used to detect increases in intrahost variants, potentially providing an early indication of novel variant spread.

Infectious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Exhaled Aerosols and Efficacy of Masks During Early Mild Infection.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemiology implicates airborne transmission; aerosol infectiousness and impacts of masks and variants on aerosol shedding are not well understood. METHODS: We recruited coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases to give blood, saliva, mid-turbinate and fomite (phone) swabs, and 30-minute breath samples while vocalizing into a Gesundheit-II, with and without masks at up to 2 visits 2 days apart. We quantified and sequenced viral RNA, cultured virus, and assayed serum samples for anti-spike and anti-receptor binding domain antibodies. RESULTS: We enrolled 49 seronegative cases (mean days post onset 3.8 ±â€…2.1), May 2020 through April 2021. We detected SARS-CoV-2 RNA in 36% of fine (≤5 µm), 26% of coarse (>5 µm) aerosols, and 52% of fomite samples overall and in all samples from 4 alpha variant cases. Masks reduced viral RNA by 48% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3 to 72%) in fine and by 77% (95% CI, 51 to 89%) in coarse aerosols; cloth and surgical masks were not significantly different. The alpha variant was associated with a 43-fold (95% CI, 6.6- to 280-fold) increase in fine aerosol viral RNA, compared with earlier viruses, that remained a significant 18-fold (95% CI, 3.4- to 92-fold) increase adjusting for viral RNA in saliva, swabs, and other potential confounders. Two fine aerosol samples, collected while participants wore masks, were culture-positive. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 is evolving toward more efficient aerosol generation and loose-fitting masks provide significant but only modest source control. Therefore, until vaccination rates are very high, continued layered controls and tight-fitting masks and respirators will be necessary.

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

Metagenomic analysis reveals Culex mosquito virome diversity and Japanese encephalitis genotype V in the Republic of Korea.

Recent outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging viruses have shown that timely detection of novel arboviruses with epidemic potential is essential to mitigate human health risks. There are rising concerns that emergent JEV genotype V (GV) is circulating in Asia, against which current vaccines may not be efficacious. To ascertain if JEV GV and other arboviruses are circulating in East Asia, we conducted next-generation sequencing on 260 pools of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Culex bitaeniorhynchus mosquitoes (6540 specimens) collected at Camp Humphreys, Republic of Korea (ROK) in 2018. Interrogation of our data revealed a highly abundant and diverse virosphere that contained sequences from 122 distinct virus species. Our statistical and hierarchical analysis uncovered correlates of potential health, virological, and ecological relevance. Furthermore, we obtained evidence that JEV GV was circulating in Pyeongtaek and, retrospectively, in Seoul in 2016 and placed these findings within the context of human and fowl reservoir activity. Sequence-based analysis of JEV GV showed a divergent genotype that is the most distant from the GIII-derived live attenuated SA14-14-2 vaccine strain and indicated regions probably responsible for reduced antibody affinity. These results emphasize recent concerns of shifting JEV genotype in East Asia and highlight the critical need for a vaccine proven efficacious against this re-emergent virus. Together, our one-health approach to Culex viral metagenomics uncovered novel insights into virus ecology and human health.

Precision Tracing of Household Dengue Spread Using Inter- and Intra-Host Viral Variation Data, Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand.

Dengue control approaches are best informed by granular spatial epidemiology of these viruses, yet reconstruction of inter- and intra-household transmissions is limited when analyzing case count, serologic, or genomic consensus sequence data. To determine viral spread on a finer spatial scale, we extended phylogenomic discrete trait analyses to reconstructions of house-to-house transmissions within a prospective cluster study in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. For additional resolution and transmission confirmation, we mapped dengue intra-host single nucleotide variants on the taxa of these time-scaled phylogenies. This approach confirmed 19 household transmissions and revealed that dengue disperses an average of 70 m per day between households in these communities. We describe an evolutionary biology framework for the resolution of dengue transmissions that cannot be differentiated based on epidemiologic and consensus genome data alone. This framework can be used as a public health tool to inform control approaches and enable precise tracing of dengue transmissions.

Reconstructing unseen transmission events to infer dengue dynamics from viral sequences.

For most pathogens, transmission is driven by interactions between the behaviours of infectious individuals, the behaviours of the wider population, the local environment, and immunity. Phylogeographic approaches are currently unable to disentangle the relative effects of these competing factors. We develop a spatiotemporally structured phylogenetic framework that addresses these limitations by considering individual transmission events, reconstructed across spatial scales. We apply it to geocoded dengue virus sequences from Thailand (N = 726 over 18 years). We find infected individuals spend 96% of their time in their home community compared to 76% for the susceptible population (mainly children) and 42% for adults. Dynamic pockets of local immunity make transmission more likely in places with high heterotypic immunity and less likely where high homotypic immunity exists. Age-dependent mixing of individuals and vector distributions are not important in determining spread. This approach provides previously unknown insights into one of the most complex disease systems known and will be applicable to other pathogens.

The evolution of dengue-2 viruses in Malindi, Kenya and greater East Africa: Epidemiological and immunological implications.

Kenya experiences a substantial burden of dengue, yet there are very few DENV-2 sequence data available from this country and indeed the entire continent of Africa. We therefore undertook whole genome sequencing and evolutionary analysis of fourteen dengue virus (DENV)-2 strains sampled from Malindi sub-County Hospital during the 2017 DENV-2 outbreak in the Kenyan coast. We further performed an extended East African phylogenetic analysis, which leveraged 26 complete African env genes. Maximum likelihood analysis showed that the 2017 outbreak was due to the Cosmopolitan genotype, indicating that this has been the only confirmed human DENV-2 genotype circulating in Africa to date. Phylogeographic analyses indicated transmission of DENV-2 viruses between East Africa and South/South-West Asia. Time-scaled genealogies show that DENV-2 viruses shows spatial structure at the country level in Kenya, with a time-to-most-common-recent ancestor analysis indicating that these DENV-2 strains were circulating for up to 5.38 years in Kenya before detection in the 2017 Malindi outbreak. Selection pressure analyses indicated sampled Kenyan DENV strains uniquely being under positive selection at 6 sites, predominantly across the non-structural genes, and epitope prediction analyses showed that one of these sites corresponds to a putative predicted MHC-I CD8+ DENV-2 Cosmopolitan virus epitope only evident in a sampled Kenyan virus. Taken together, our findings indicate that the 2017 Malindi DENV-2 outbreak arose from a strain which had circulated for several years in Kenya before recent detection, has experienced diversifying selection pressure, and may contain new putative immunogens relevant to vaccine design. These findings prompt further genomic epidemiology studies in this and other Kenyan locations to further elucidate the transmission dynamics of DENV in this region.

Emergence of a novel chikungunya virus strain bearing the E1:V80A substitution, out of the Mombasa, Kenya 2017-2018 outbreak.

Between late 2017 and mid-2018, a chikungunya fever outbreak occurred in Mombasa, Kenya that followed an earlier outbreak in mid-2016 in Mandera County on the border with Somalia. Using targeted Next Generation Sequencing, we obtained genomes from clinical samples collected during the 2017/2018 Mombasa outbreak. We compared data from the 2016 Mandera outbreak with the 2017/2018 Mombasa outbreak, and found that both had the Aedes aegypti adapting mutations, E1:K211E and E2:V264A. Further to the above two mutations, 11 of 15 CHIKV genomes from the Mombasa outbreak showed a novel triple mutation signature of E1:V80A, E1:T82I and E1:V84D. These novel mutations are estimated to have arisen in Mombasa by mid-2017 (2017.58, 95% HPD: 2017.23, 2017.84). The MRCA for the Mombasa outbreak genomes is estimated to have been present in early 2017 (2017.22, 95% HPD: 2016.68, 2017.63). Interestingly some of the earliest genomes from the Mombasa outbreak lacked the E1:V80A, E1:T82I and E1:V84D substitutions. Previous laboratory experiments have indicated that a substitution at position E1:80 in the CHIKV genome may lead to increased CHIKV transmissibility by Ae. albopictus. Genbank investigation of all available CHIKV genomes revealed that E1:V80A was not present; therefore, our data constitutes the first report of the E1:V80A mutation occurring in nature. To date, chikungunya outbreaks in the Northern and Western Hemispheres have occurred in Ae. aegypti inhabited tropical regions. Notwithstanding, it has been suggested that an Ae. albopictus adaptable ECSA or IOL strain could easily be introduced in these regions leading to a new wave of outbreaks. Our data on the recent Mombasa CHIKV outbreak has shown that a potential Ae. albopictus adapting mutation may be evolving within the East African region. It is even more worrisome that there exists potential for emergence of a CHIKV strain more adapted to efficient transmission by both Ae. albopictus and Ae.aegypti simultaneously. In view of the present data and history of chikungunya outbreaks, pandemic potential for such a strain is now a likely possibility in the future. Thus, continued surveillance of chikungunya backed by molecular epidemiologic capacity should be sustained to understand the evolving public health threat and inform prevention and control measures including the ongoing vaccine development efforts.

Hidden genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2: implications for qRT-PCR diagnostics and transmission.

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an urgent need to uncover the underlying biology of this devastating disease. Though RNA viruses mutate more rapidly than DNA viruses, there are a relatively small number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that differentiate the main SARS-CoV-2 clades that have spread throughout the world. In this study, we investigated over 7,000 SARS-CoV-2 datasets to unveil both intrahost and interhost diversity. Our intrahost and interhost diversity analyses yielded three major observations. First, the mutational profile of SARS-CoV-2 highlights iSNV and SNP similarity, albeit with high variability in C>T changes. Second, iSNV and SNP patterns in SARS-CoV-2 are more similar to MERS-CoV than SARS-CoV-1. Third, a significant fraction of small indels fuel the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Altogether, our findings provide insight into SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity, inform the design of detection tests, and highlight the potential of iSNVs for tracking the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Origin and evolution of dengue virus type 2 causing outbreaks in Kenya: Evidence of circulation of two cosmopolitan genotype lineages.

Dengue fever (DF) is an arboviral disease caused by dengue virus serotypes 1-4 (DENV 1-4). Globally, DF incidence and disease burden have increased in the recent past. Initially implicated in a 1982 outbreak, DENV-2 recently reemerged in Kenya causing outbreaks between 2011 and 2014 and more recently 2017-8. The origin and the evolutionary patterns that may explain the epidemiological expansion and increasing impact of DENV-2 in Kenya remain poorly understood. Using whole-genome sequencing, samples collected during the 2011-4 and 2017-8 dengue outbreaks were analyzed. Additional DENV-2 genomes were downloaded and pooled together with the fourteen genomes generated in this study. Bioinformatic methods were used to analyze phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary patterns of DENV-2 causing outbreaks in Kenya. The findings from this study have shown the first evidence of circulation of two different Cosmopolitan genotype lineages of DENV-2; Cosmopolitan-I (C-I) and Cosmopolitan-II (C-II), in Kenya. Our results put the origin location of C-I lineage in India in 2011, and C-II lineage in Burkina Faso between 1979 and 2013. C-I lineage was the most isolated during recent outbreaks, thus showing the contribution of this newly emerged strain to the increased DENV epidemics in the region. Our findings, backed by evidence of recent local epidemics that have been associated with C-I in Kenya and C-II in Burkina Faso, add to the growing evidence of expanding circulation and the impact of multiple strains of DENV in the region as well as globally. Thus, continued surveillance efforts on DENV activity and its evolutionary trends in the region, would contribute toward effective control and the current vaccine development efforts.

Human Adenovirus Type 55 Distribution, Regional Persistence, and Genetic Variability.

Human adenovirus type 55 (HAdV-55) causes acute respiratory disease of variable severity and has become an emergent threat in both civilian and military populations. HAdV-55 infection is endemic to China and South Korea, but data from other regions and time periods are needed for comprehensive assessment of HAdV-55 prevalence from a global perspective. In this study, we subjected HAdV-55 isolates from various countries collected during 1969-2018 to whole-genome sequencing, genomic and proteomic comparison, and phylogenetic analyses. The results show worldwide distribution of HAdV-55; recent strains share a high degree of genomic homogeneity. Distinct strains circulated regionally for several years, suggesting persistent local transmission. Several cases of sporadic introduction of certain strains to other countries were documented. Among the identified amino acid mutations distinguishing HAdV-55 strains, some have potential impact on essential viral functions and may affect infectivity and transmission.

Potent Zika and dengue cross-neutralizing antibodies induced by Zika vaccination in a dengue-experienced donor.

Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused significant disease, with widespread cases of neurological pathology and congenital neurologic defects. Rapid vaccine development has led to a number of candidates capable of eliciting potent ZIKV-neutralizing antibodies (reviewed in refs. 1-3). Despite advances in vaccine development, it remains unclear how ZIKV vaccination affects immune responses in humans with prior flavivirus immunity. Here we show that a single-dose immunization of ZIKV purified inactivated vaccine (ZPIV)4-7 in a dengue virus (DENV)-experienced human elicited potent cross-neutralizing antibodies to both ZIKV and DENV. Using a unique ZIKV virion-based sorting strategy, we isolated and characterized multiple antibodies, including one termed MZ4, which targets a novel site of vulnerability centered on the Envelope (E) domain I/III linker region and protects mice from viremia and viral dissemination following ZIKV or DENV-2 challenge. These data demonstrate that Zika vaccination in a DENV-experienced individual can boost pre-existing flavivirus immunity and elicit protective responses against both ZIKV and DENV. ZPIV vaccination in Puerto Rican individuals with prior flavivirus experience yielded similar cross-neutralizing potency after a single vaccination, highlighting the potential benefit of ZIKV vaccination in flavivirus-endemic areas.

Precision Medicine and Precision Public Health in the Era of Pathogen Next-Generation Sequencing.

This brief report serves as an introduction to a supplement of the Journal of Infectious Diseases entitled "Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) Technologies to Advance Global Infectious Disease Research." We briefly discuss the history of NGS technologies and describe how the techniques developed during the past 40 years have impacted our understanding of infectious diseases. Our focus is on the application of NGS in the context of pathogen genomics. Beyond obvious clinical and public health applications, we also discuss the challenges that still remain within this rapidly evolving field.