Mitigation pathways of air pollution from residential emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China.

Air pollution is one of the most harmful consequences of China's rapid economic development and urbanization. Particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) regions, particulate matter concentrations have consistently exceeded the national air quality standards. Over the last years, China implemented ambitious measures to reduce emissions from the power, industry and transportation sectors, with notable success during the 11th and 12th Five Year Plan (FYP) periods. However, such strategies appear to be insufficient to reduce the ambient PM2.5 concentration below the National Air Quality Standard of 35 µg m-3 across the BTH region within the next 15 years. We find that a comprehensive mitigation strategy for the residential sector in the BTH region would deliver substantial air quality benefits. Beyond the already planned expansion of district heating and natural gas distribution in urban centers and the foreseen curtailment of coal use for households, such a strategy would redirect some natural gas from power generation units towards the residential sector. Rural households would replace biomass for cooking by liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity, and substitute coal for heating by briquettes. Jointly, these measures could reduce the primary PM2.5 and SO2 emissions by 28% and 11%, respectively, and the population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations by 13%, i.e., from 68 µg m-3 to 59 µg m-3. We estimate that such a strategy would reduce premature deaths attributable to ambient and indoor air pollution by almost one third.