Long-term trends (1986-2019) in the physicochemical properties of the Sado Estuary (Portugal) driven primarily by changes in river flow and influenced by marine upwelling.

Estuaries are among the most sensitive systems to climate change. Previous studies have suggested that the Sado Estuary (Portugal) has decreasing trends for water temperature, which is uncommon in a global warming scenario. However, no long-term analysis regarding water column conditions has been conducted on this estuary to date. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to understand if and how the properties of this estuary have changed, considering a 34-year trend analysis and an assessment of their main drivers. Water temperature significantly decreased (up to 0.04 °C/year) along with chlorophyll a. Salinity increased and nutrients displayed an overall decrease. These trends were potentially driven by higher influence of upwelled water combined with a reduction of the river flow. Sado appears to have a lower vulnerability to climate change than other estuaries as it does not show a high sensitivity to changes in its water column physicochemical properties.

Effects of climate change on aquaculture site selection at a temperate estuarine system.

Aquaculture is one of the food industries that most evolved in recent years in response to increased human demand for seafood products, which has led to a progressive stock threat in nature. With a high seafood consumption per capita, Portugal has been exploring its coastal systems to improve the cultivation of fish and bivalve species with high commercial value. In this context, this study aims to propose the use of a numerical model as a tool to assess the impact of climate change on aquaculture site selection in a temperate estuarine system (Sado estuary). Therefore, the Delft3D model was calibrated and validated, showing good accuracy in predicting the local hydrodynamics, transport, and water quality. Furthermore, two simulations for the historical and future conditions were performed to establish a Suitability Index capable of identifying the most appropriate sites to exploit two bivalve species (one clam and one oyster), considering both winter and summer seasons. Results suggest that the estuary's northernmost region presents the best conditions for bivalves' exploitation, with more suitable conditions during summer than winter due to the higher water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentrations. Regarding future projections, the model results suggest that environmental conditions will likely benefit the production of both species due to the increase in chlorophyll-a concentration along the estuary.

40 years of changes in sea surface temperature along the Western Iberian Coast.

Climate change is causing mean sea surface temperatures (SST) to increase worldwide. However, this increase has not been temporally or spatially uniform, with variations observed depending both on the period considered and the geographic region. In this context, this paper aims to quantify relevant changes in SST along the Western Iberian Coast over the last four decades, through the calculation of trends and anomalies of long-term time series of in situ observations and satellite-derived data. Potential drivers of SST changes were considered using atmospheric and teleconnections time series. Changes in the seasonal cycle of SST were also evaluated. We show that SST has increased since 1982, with regional variations between 0.10 and 0.25 °C per decade, with an increase in air temperature appearing to drive the SST trends along the Iberian coast. In the near-shore area, no significant trends or changes in the seasonal cycle of SST were observed, which is likely due to a buffer effect caused by the seasonal upwelling that characterizes the region. Recent decades show a slowdown in the increase rate of SST along the Western Iberian Coast. An upwelling intensification could justify this observation, along with the effect of teleconnections on the regional climate, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WeMOI). Our results suggest that the WeMOI plays a more important role in coastal SST variability than the other teleconnections. The present study quantifies regional changes in SST and enhances knowledge of the role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in regulating climate and weather conditions. Moreover, it provides a relevant scientific context to the development of regional adaptative and mitigation actions in response to climate change.

Climate change in estuarine systems: Patterns and gaps using a meta-analysis approach.

Although regional studies and projections suggest the deterioration of estuaries as a consequence of climate change, it is still difficult to fully understand the importance of such changes in estuarine systems. This limitation is particularly important considering their high dynamism and the lack of temporally extended in situ databases with a good spatial coverage for these systems worldwide. Furthermore, contradictory patterns have been observed across the globe. Motivated by these issues, in this study we question the availability of in situ observational evidence of climate change in estuarine systems through a detailed meta-analysis of existing publications. A topic-related search considering the outputs of the Web of Science library was conducted in order to obtain a characterization of the existing studies on climate change in estuarine systems. Results confirmed that climate change has increasingly been studied since 2000 and that marine climate change constituted the focus of 9.69 % of those studies. From these, only 9.30 % encompassed estuarine studies and just 1.13 % used in situ observations from estuarine systems (i.e., 0.11 % of the total climate change publications). Reanalysis products were the most used tools to assess changes in estuarine systems and sea temperature was the most analyzed variable. These results highlight the need to further address such questions using in situ observational data and to implement long-term observatories to fully identify evidence of climate change in estuarine systems, supporting modelling approaches and promoting the development of effective mitigation plans.

Increased oyster aquaculture in the Sado Estuary (Portugal): How to ensure ecosystem sustainability?

Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world. However, this may come with a cost, as increasing aquatic production is likely to impose changes in the environment. To ensure ecosystem sustainability, it is essential to think on this larger scale. This study aims to use the Delft3D model suite to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity for bivalve production in the Sado Estuary (Portugal), under present and future conditions (2050). Scenarios for increased oyster production resulted in reductions of chlorophyll a associated with increased nutrient concentrations. In the most extreme production scenario, which considered an increase of 100 ha in production area, a predicted decrease of 90 % in phytoplankton biomass was observed. Climate change (CC) was incorporated as an increase in sea level and water temperature, as well as a reduction in river flow. Under present oyster production conditions, CC revealed contrasting patterns, i.e. an increase in chlorophyll a concentrations and a reduction in nutrients. These results suggest that CC has a positive effect in counteracting the impacts of increased oyster production, however further research is necessary. All scenarios point to reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations, highlighting the need to monitor this parameter. Given the difficulty in defining what are unacceptable impacts to the ecosystem it would be prudent to include a socio-ecological framework in the future, in order to integrate ecosystem services and the perception of local stakeholders.

Tidal variability of water quality parameters in a mesotidal estuary (Sado Estuary, Portugal).

To establish effective water quality monitoring strategies in estuaries, it is imperative to identify and understand the main drivers for the variation of water quality parameters. The tidal effect is an important factor of the daily and fortnightly variability in several estuaries. However, the extent of that influence on the different physicochemical and biological parameters is still overlooked in some estuarine systems, such as the Sado Estuary, a mesotidal estuary located on the west coast of Portugal. The main objective of this study was to determine how the water quality parameters of the Sado Estuary varied with the fortnightly and the semidiurnal tidal variation. To achieve this goal, sampling campaigns were conducted in May/18, Nov/18 and Jun/19, under neap and spring tidal conditions, with data collection over the tidal cycle. Results were observed to be significantly influenced by the tidal variation, in a large area of the estuary. Flood seemed to mitigate possible effects of nutrient enrichment in the water column. Additionally, significant differences were also observed when considering the different sampling stations. Temperature, Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) and nutrients showed the highest values at low water. Lastly, the implications of the tidal variability in the evaluation of the water quality according to Water Framework Directive were also discussed, highlighting the importance of studying short-time scale variations and the worst-case scenario to ensure water quality is maintained. These findings are relevant for the implementation of regional management plans and to promote sustainable development.