A machine learning-based prediction of tau load and distribution in Alzheimer's disease using plasma, MRI and clinical variables.

Tau positron emission tomography (PET) is a reliable neuroimaging technique for assessing regional load of tau pathology in the brain, commonly used in Alzheimer's disease (AD) research and clinical trials. However, its routine clinical use is limited by cost and accessibility barriers. Here we explore using machine learning (ML) models to predict clinically useful tau-PET outcomes from low-cost and non-invasive features, e.g., basic clinical variables, plasma biomarkers, and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Results demonstrated that models including plasma biomarkers yielded highly accurate predictions of tau-PET burden (best model: R-squared=0.66-0.68), with especially high contribution from plasma P-tau217. In contrast, MRI variables stood out as best predictors (best model: R-squared=0.28-0.42) of asymmetric tau load between the two hemispheres (an example of clinically relevant spatial information). The models showed high generalizability to external test cohorts with data collected at multiple sites. Based on these results, we also propose a proof-of-concept two-step classification workflow, demonstrating how the ML models can be translated to a clinical setting. This study reveals current potential in predicting tau-PET information from scalable cost-effective variables, which could improve diagnosis and prognosis of AD.

Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment.

Importance: An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-ß (Aß) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. Exposures: Tau PET, Aß PET, and MRI. Main Outcomes and Measures: Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta-region of interest), Aß PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. Results: In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aß PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.

Medial temporal lobe atrophy patterns in early- versus late-onset amnestic Alzheimer's disease.

Background: The medial temporal lobe (MTL) is hypothesized to be relatively spared in early-onset Alzheimer's disease (EOAD). Yet, detailed examination of MTL subfield volumes and drivers of atrophy in amnestic EOAD is lacking. Methods: BioFINDER-2 participants with memory impairment, abnormal amyloid-ß status and tau-PET were included. Forty-one EOAD individuals aged ≤65 years and, as comparison, late-onset AD (LOAD, ≥70 years, n=154) and Aß-negative cognitively unimpaired controls were included. MTL subregions and biomarkers of (co-)pathologies were measured. Results: AD groups showed smaller MTL subregions compared to controls. Atrophy patterns were similar across AD groups, although LOAD showed thinner entorhinal cortices compared to EOAD. EOAD showed lower WMH compared to LOAD. No differences in MTL tau-PET or transactive response DNA binding protein 43-proxy positivity was found. Conclusions: We found in vivo evidence for MTL atrophy in amnestic EOAD and overall similar levels to LOAD of MTL tau pathology and co-pathologies.

Interactions between vascular burden and amyloid-ß pathology on trajectories of tau accumulation.

Cerebrovascular pathology often co-exists with Alzheimer's disease pathology and can contribute to Alzheimer's disease-related clinical progression. However, the degree to which vascular burden contributes to Alzheimer's disease pathological progression is still unclear. This study aimed to investigate interactions between vascular burden and amyloid-ß pathology on both baseline tau tangle load and longitudinal tau accumulation. We included 1229 participants from the Swedish BioFINDER-2 Study, including cognitively unimpaired and impaired participants with and without biomarker-confirmed amyloid-ß pathology. All underwent baseline tau-PET (18F-RO948), and a subset (n = 677) underwent longitudinal tau-PET after 2.5 ± 1.0 years. Tau-PET uptake was computed for a temporal meta-region-of-interest. We focused on four main vascular imaging features and risk factors: microbleeds; white matter lesion volume; stroke-related events (infarcts, lacunes and haemorrhages); and the Framingham Heart Study Cardiovascular Disease risk score. To validate our in vivo results, we examined 1610 autopsy cases from an Arizona-based neuropathology cohort on three main vascular pathological features: cerebral amyloid angiopathy; white matter rarefaction; and infarcts. For the in vivo cohort, primary analyses included age-, sex- and APOE ɛ4-corrected linear mixed models between tau-PET (outcome) and interactions between time, amyloid-ß and each vascular feature (predictors). For the neuropathology cohort, age-, sex- and APOE ɛ4-corrected linear models between tau tangle density (outcome) and an interaction between plaque density and each vascular feature (predictors) were performed. In cognitively unimpaired individuals, we observed a significant interaction between microbleeds and amyloid-ß pathology on greater baseline tau load (ß = 0.68, P < 0.001) and longitudinal tau accumulation (ß = 0.11, P < 0.001). For white matter lesion volume, we did not observe a significant independent interaction effect with amyloid-ß on tau after accounting for microbleeds. In cognitively unimpaired individuals, we further found that stroke-related events showed a significant negative interaction with amyloid-ß on longitudinal tau (ß = -0.08, P < 0.001). In cognitively impaired individuals, there were no significant interaction effects between cerebrovascular and amyloid-ß pathology at all. In the neuropathology dataset, the in vivo observed interaction effects between cerebral amyloid angiopathy and plaque density (ß = 0.38, P < 0.001) and between infarcts and plaque density (ß = -0.11, P = 0.005) on tau tangle density were replicated. To conclude, we demonstrated that cerebrovascular pathology-in the presence of amyloid-ß pathology-modifies tau accumulation in early stages of Alzheimer's disease. More specifically, the co-occurrence of microbleeds and amyloid-ß pathology was associated with greater accumulation of tau aggregates during early disease stages. This opens the possibility that interventions targeting microbleeds may attenuate the rate of tau accumulation in Alzheimer's disease.

How Do Modifiable Risk Factors Affect Alzheimer's Disease Pathology or Mitigate Its Effect on Clinical Symptom Expression?

Epidemiological studies show that modifiable risk factors account for approximately 40% of the population variability in risk of developing dementia, including sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD). Recent findings suggest that these factors may also modify disease trajectories of people with autosomal-dominant AD. With positron emission tomography imaging, it is now possible to study the disease many years before its clinical onset. Such studies can provide key knowledge regarding pathways for either the prevention of pathology or the postponement of its clinical expression. The former "resistance pathway" suggests that modifiable risk factors could affect amyloid and tau burden decades before the appearance of cognitive impairment. Alternatively, the resilience pathway suggests that modifiable risk factors may mitigate the symptomatic expression of AD pathology on cognition. These pathways are not mutually exclusive and may appear at different disease stages. Here, in a narrative review, we present neuroimaging evidence that supports both pathways in sporadic AD and autosomal-dominant AD. We then propose mechanisms for their protective effect. Among possible mechanisms, we examine neural and vascular mechanisms for the resistance pathway. We also describe brain maintenance and functional compensation as bases for the resilience pathway. Improved mechanistic understanding of both pathways may suggest new interventions.

Novel CSF tau biomarkers can be used for disease staging of sporadic Alzheimer's disease.

Biological staging of individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) may improve diagnostic and prognostic work-up of dementia in clinical practice and the design of clinical trials. Here, we created a staging model using the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) algorithm by evaluating cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) amyloid-ß (Aß) and tau biomarkers in 426 participants from BioFINDER-2, that represent the entire spectrum of AD. The model composition and main analyses were replicated in 222 participants from the Knight ADRC cohort. SuStaIn revealed in the two cohorts that the data was best explained by a single biomarker sequence (one subtype), and that five CSF biomarkers (ordered: Aß42/40, tau phosphorylation occupancies at the residues 217 and 205 [pT217/T217 and pT205/T205], microtubule-binding region of tau containing the residue 243 [MTBR-tau243], and total tau) were sufficient to create an accurate disease staging model. Increasing CSF stages (0-5) were associated with increased abnormality in other AD-related biomarkers, such as Aß- and tau-PET, and aligned with different phases of longitudinal biomarker changes consistent with current models of AD progression. Higher CSF stages at baseline were associated with higher hazard ratio of clinical decline. Our findings indicate that a common pathophysiologic molecular pathway develops across all AD patients, and that a single CSF collection is sufficient to reliably indicate the presence of both AD pathologies and the degree and stage of disease progression.

Tau accumulation and its spatial progression across the Alzheimer's disease spectrum.

The spread of tau abnormality in sporadic Alzheimer's disease is believed typically to follow neuropathologically defined Braak staging. Recent in-vivo positron emission tomography (PET) evidence challenges this belief, however, as spreading patterns for tau appear heterogenous among individuals with varying clinical expression of Alzheimer's disease. We therefore sought better understanding of the spatial distribution of tau in the preclinical and clinical phases of sporadic Alzheimer's disease and its association with cognitive decline. Longitudinal tau-PET data (1,370 scans) from 832 participants (463 cognitively unimpaired, 277 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 92 with Alzheimer's disease dementia) were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Among these, we defined thresholds of abnormal tau deposition in 70 brain regions from the Desikan atlas, and for each group of regions characteristic of Braak staging. We summed each scan's number of regions with abnormal tau deposition to form a spatial extent index. We then examined patterns of tau pathology cross-sectionally and longitudinally and assessed their heterogeneity. Finally, we compared our spatial extent index of tau uptake with a temporal meta region of interest-a commonly used proxy of tau burden-assessing their association with cognitive scores and clinical progression. More than 80% of amyloid-beta positive participants across diagnostic groups followed typical Braak staging, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Within each Braak stage, however, the pattern of abnormality demonstrated significant heterogeneity such that overlap of abnormal regions across participants averaged less than 50%. The annual rate of change in number of abnormal tau-PET regions was similar among individuals without cognitive impairment and those with Alzheimer's disease dementia. Spread of disease progressed more rapidly, however, among participants with MCI. The latter's change on our spatial extent measure amounted to 2.5 newly abnormal regions per year, as contrasted with 1 region/year among the other groups. Comparing the association of tau pathology and cognitive performance in MCI and Alzheimer's disease dementia, our spatial extent index was superior to the temporal meta-ROI for measures of executive function. Thus, while participants broadly followed Braak stages, significant individual regional heterogeneity of tau binding was observed at each clinical stage. Progression of spatial extent of tau pathology appears to be fastest in persons with MCI. Exploring the spatial distribution of tau deposits throughout the entire brain may uncover further pathological variations and their correlation with impairments in cognitive functions beyond memory.

Comparison of Group-Level and Individualized Brain Regions for Measuring Change in Longitudinal Tau Positron Emission Tomography in Alzheimer Disease.

Importance: Longitudinal tau positron emission tomography (PET) is a relevant outcome in clinical trials evaluating disease-modifying therapies in Alzheimer disease (AD). A key unanswered question is whether the use of participant-specific (individualized) regions of interest (ROIs) is superior to conventional approaches where the same ROI (group-level) is used for each participant. Objective: To compare group- and participant-level ROIs in participants at different stages of the AD clinical continuum in terms of annual percentage change in tau-PET standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) and sample size requirements. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a longitudinal cohort study with consecutive participant enrollment between September 18, 2017, and November 15, 2021. Included in the analysis were participants with mild cognitive impairment and AD dementia from the prospective and longitudinal Swedish Biomarkers For Identifying Neurodegenerative Disorders Early and Reliably 2 (BioFINDER-2) study; in addition, a validation sample (the AVID 05e, Expedition-3, Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], and BioFINDER-1 study cohorts) was also included. Exposures: Tau PET (BioFINDER-2, [18F]RO948; validation sample, [18F]flortaucipir), 7 group-level (5 data-driven stages, meta-temporal, whole brain), and 5 individualized ROIs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Annual percentage change in tau-PET SUVR across ROIs. Sample size requirements in simulated clinical trials using tau PET as an outcome were also calculated. Results: A total of 215 participants (mean [SD] age, 71.4 (7.5) years; 111 male [51.6%]) from the BioFINDER-2 study were included in this analysis: 97 amyloid-ß (Aß)-positive cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals, 77 with Aß-positive mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 41 with AD dementia. In the validation sample were 137 Aß-positive CU participants, 144 with Aß-positive MCI, and 125 with AD dementia. Mean (SD) follow-up time was 1.8 (0.3) years. Using group-level ROIs, the largest annual percentage increase in tau-PET SUVR in Aß-positive CU individuals was seen in a composite ROI combining the entorhinal cortex, hippocampus, and amygdala (4.29%; 95% CI, 3.42%-5.16%). In individuals with Aß-positive MCI, the greatest change was seen in the temporal cortical regions (5.82%; 95% CI, 4.67%-6.97%), whereas in those with AD dementia, the greatest change was seen in the parietal regions (5.22%; 95% CI, 3.95%-6.49%). Significantly higher estimates of annual percentage change were found using several of the participant-specific ROIs. Importantly, the simplest participant-specific approach, where change in tau PET was calculated in an ROI that best matched the participant's data-driven disease stage, performed best in all 3 subgroups. For the power analysis, sample size reductions for the participant-specific ROIs ranged from 15.94% (95% CI, 8.14%-23.74%) to 72.10% (95% CI, 67.10%-77.20%) compared with the best-performing group-level ROIs. Findings were replicated using [18F]flortaucipir. Conclusions and Relevance: Finding suggest that certain individualized ROIs carry an advantage over group-level ROIs for assessing longitudinal tau changes and increase the power to detect treatment effects in AD clinical trials using longitudinal tau PET as an outcome.

Phospho-tau with subthreshold tau-PET predicts increased tau accumulation rates in amyloid-positive individuals.

Different tau biomarkers become abnormal at different stages of Alzheimer's disease, with CSF phospho-tau typically becoming elevated at subthreshold levels of tau-PET binding. To capitalize on the temporal order of tau biomarker-abnormality and capture the earliest changes of tau accumulation, we implemented an observational study design to examine longitudinal changes in tau-PET, cortical thickness and cognitive decline in amyloid-ß-positive individuals with elevated CSF p-tau levels (P+) but subthreshold Tau-PET retention (T-). To this end, individuals without dementia (i.e. cognitively unimpaired or mild cognitive impairment, n = 231) were selected from the BioFINDER-2 study. Amyloid-ß-positive (A+) individuals were categorized into biomarker groups based on cut-offs for abnormal CSF p-tau217 and 18F-RO948 (Tau) PET, yielding groups of tau-concordant-negative (A+P-T-; n = 30), tau-discordant (i.e. A+P+T-; n = 48) and tau-concordant-positive (A+P+T+; n = 18) individuals. In addition, 135 amyloid-ß-negative, tau-negative, cognitively unimpaired individuals served as controls. Differences in annual change in regional tau-PET, cortical thickness and cognition between the groups were assessed using general linear models, adjusted for age, sex, clinical diagnosis and (for cognitive measures only) education. Mean follow-up time was ∼2 years. Longitudinal increase in tau-PET was faster in the A+P+T- group than in the control and A+P-T- groups across medial temporal and neocortical regions, with the highest accumulation rates in the medial temporal lobe. The A+P+T- group showed a slower rate of increase in tau-PET compared to the A+P+T+ group, primarily in neocortical regions. We did not detect differences in yearly change in cortical thickness or in cognitive decline between the A+P+T- and A+P-T- groups. The A+P+T+ group, however, showed faster cognitive decline compared to all other groups. Altogether, these findings suggest that the A+P+T- biomarker profile in persons without dementia is associated with an isolated effect on increased tau-PET accumulation rates but not on cortical thinning and cognitive decline. While this suggests that the tau-discordant biomarker profile is not strongly associated with short-term clinical decline, this group does represent an interesting population for monitoring the effects of interventions with disease-modifying agents on tau accumulation in early Alzheimer's disease, and for examining the emergence of tau aggregates in Alzheimer's disease. Further, we suggest updating the AT(N) criteria for Alzheimer's disease biomarker classification to APT(N).

Differential roles of Aß42/40, p-tau231 and p-tau217 for Alzheimer's trial selection and disease monitoring.

Blood biomarkers indicative of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology are altered in both preclinical and symptomatic stages of the disease. Distinctive biomarkers may be optimal for the identification of AD pathology or monitoring of disease progression. Blood biomarkers that correlate with changes in cognition and atrophy during the course of the disease could be used in clinical trials to identify successful interventions and thereby accelerate the development of efficient therapies. When disease-modifying treatments become approved for use, efficient blood-based biomarkers might also inform on treatment implementation and management in clinical practice. In the BioFINDER-1 cohort, plasma phosphorylated (p)-tau231 and amyloid-ß42/40 ratio were more changed at lower thresholds of amyloid pathology. Longitudinally, however, only p-tau217 demonstrated marked amyloid-dependent changes over 4-6 years in both preclinical and symptomatic stages of the disease, with no such changes observed in p-tau231, p-tau181, amyloid-ß42/40, glial acidic fibrillary protein or neurofilament light. Only longitudinal increases of p-tau217 were also associated with clinical deterioration and brain atrophy in preclinical AD. The selective longitudinal increase of p-tau217 and its associations with cognitive decline and atrophy was confirmed in an independent cohort (Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention). These findings support the differential association of plasma biomarkers with disease development and strongly highlight p-tau217 as a surrogate marker of disease progression in preclinical and prodromal AD, with impact for the development of new disease-modifying treatments.

Earlier Alzheimer's disease onset is associated with tau pathology in brain hub regions and facilitated tau spreading.

In Alzheimer's disease (AD), younger symptom onset is associated with accelerated disease progression and tau spreading, yet the mechanisms underlying faster disease manifestation are unknown. To address this, we combined resting-state fMRI and longitudinal tau-PET in two independent samples of controls and biomarker-confirmed AD patients (ADNI/BioFINDER, n = 240/57). Consistent across both samples, we found that younger symptomatic AD patients showed stronger tau-PET in globally connected fronto-parietal hubs, i.e., regions that are critical for maintaining cognition in AD. Stronger tau-PET in hubs predicted faster subsequent tau accumulation, suggesting that tau in globally connected regions facilitates connectivity-mediated tau spreading. Further, stronger tau-PET in hubs mediated the association between younger age and faster tau accumulation in symptomatic AD patients, which predicted faster cognitive decline. These independently validated findings suggest that younger AD symptom onset is associated with stronger tau pathology in brain hubs, and accelerated tau spreading throughout connected brain regions and cognitive decline.

Association of Elevated Amyloid and Tau Positron Emission Tomography Signal With Near-Term Development of Alzheimer Disease Symptoms in Older Adults Without Cognitive Impairment.

Importance: National Institute on Aging-Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) workgroups have proposed biological research criteria intended to identify individuals with preclinical Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective: To assess the clinical value of these biological criteria to identify older individuals without cognitive impairment who are at near-term risk of developing symptomatic AD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cohort study used data from 4 independent population-based cohorts (PREVENT-AD, HABS, AIBL, and Knight ADRC) collected between 2003 and 2021. Participants were older adults without cognitive impairment with 1 year or more of clinical observation after amyloid ß and tau positron emission tomography (PET). Median clinical follow-up after PET ranged from 1.94 to 3.66 years. Exposures: Based on binary assessment of global amyloid burden (A) and a composite temporal region of tau PET uptake (T), participants were stratified into 4 groups (A+T+, A+T-, A-T+, A-T-). Presence (+) or absence (-) of neurodegeneration (N) was assessed using temporal cortical thickness. Main Outcomes and Measures: Each cohort was analyzed separately. Primary outcome was clinical progression to mild cognitive impairment (MCI), identified by a Clinical Dementia Rating score of 0.5 or greater in Knight ADRC and by consensus committee review in the other cohorts. Clinical raters were blind to imaging, genetic, and fluid biomarker data. A secondary outcome was cognitive decline, based on a slope greater than 1.5 SD below the mean of an independent subsample of individuals without cognitive impairment. Outcomes were compared across the biomarker groups. Results: Among 580 participants (PREVENT-AD, 128; HABS, 153; AIBL, 48; Knight ADRC, 251), mean (SD) age ranged from 67 (5) to 76 (6) years across cohorts, with between 55% (137/251) and 74% (95/128) female participants. Across cohorts, 33% to 83% of A+T+ participants progressed to MCI during follow-up (mean progression time, 2-2.72 years), compared with less than 20% of participants in other biomarker groups. Progression further increased to 43% to 100% when restricted to A+T+(N+) individuals. Cox proportional hazard ratios for progression to MCI in the A+T+ group vs other biomarker groups were all 5 or greater. Many A+T+ nonprogressors also showed longitudinal cognitive decline, while cognitive trajectories in other groups remained predominantly stable. Conclusions and Relevance: The clinical prognostic value of NIA-AA research criteria was confirmed in 4 independent cohorts, with most A+T+(N+) older individuals without cognitive impairment developing AD symptoms within 2 to 3 years.

Prevalence Estimates of Amyloid Abnormality Across the Alzheimer Disease Clinical Spectrum.

IMPORTANCE: One characteristic histopathological event in Alzheimer disease (AD) is cerebral amyloid aggregation, which can be detected by biomarkers in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and on positron emission tomography (PET) scans. Prevalence estimates of amyloid pathology are important for health care planning and clinical trial design. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of amyloid abnormality in persons with normal cognition, subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, or clinical AD dementia and to examine the potential implications of cutoff methods, biomarker modality (CSF or PET), age, sex, APOE genotype, educational level, geographical region, and dementia severity for these estimates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional, individual-participant pooled study included participants from 85 Amyloid Biomarker Study cohorts. Data collection was performed from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020. Participants had normal cognition, subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, or clinical AD dementia. Normal cognition and subjective cognitive decline were defined by normal scores on cognitive tests, with the presence of cognitive complaints defining subjective cognitive decline. Mild cognitive impairment and clinical AD dementia were diagnosed according to published criteria. EXPOSURES: Alzheimer disease biomarkers detected on PET or in CSF. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Amyloid measurements were dichotomized as normal or abnormal using cohort-provided cutoffs for CSF or PET or by visual reading for PET. Adjusted data-driven cutoffs for abnormal amyloid were calculated using gaussian mixture modeling. Prevalence of amyloid abnormality was estimated according to age, sex, cognitive status, biomarker modality, APOE carrier status, educational level, geographical location, and dementia severity using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Among the 19 097 participants (mean [SD] age, 69.1 [9.8] years; 10 148 women [53.1%]) included, 10 139 (53.1%) underwent an amyloid PET scan and 8958 (46.9%) had an amyloid CSF measurement. Using cohort-provided cutoffs, amyloid abnormality prevalences were similar to 2015 estimates for individuals without dementia and were similar across PET- and CSF-based estimates (24%; 95% CI, 21%-28%) in participants with normal cognition, 27% (95% CI, 21%-33%) in participants with subjective cognitive decline, and 51% (95% CI, 46%-56%) in participants with mild cognitive impairment, whereas for clinical AD dementia the estimates were higher for PET than CSF (87% vs 79%; mean difference, 8%; 95% CI, 0%-16%; P = .04). Gaussian mixture modeling-based cutoffs for amyloid measures on PET scans were similar to cohort-provided cutoffs and were not adjusted. Adjusted CSF cutoffs resulted in a 10% higher amyloid abnormality prevalence than PET-based estimates in persons with normal cognition (mean difference, 9%; 95% CI, 3%-15%; P = .004), subjective cognitive decline (9%; 95% CI, 3%-15%; P = .005), and mild cognitive impairment (10%; 95% CI, 3%-17%; P = .004), whereas the estimates were comparable in persons with clinical AD dementia (mean difference, 4%; 95% CI, -2% to 9%; P = .18). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study found that CSF-based estimates using adjusted data-driven cutoffs were up to 10% higher than PET-based estimates in people without dementia, whereas the results were similar among people with dementia. This finding suggests that preclinical and prodromal AD may be more prevalent than previously estimated, which has important implications for clinical trial recruitment strategies and health care planning policies.

Characteristics of subjective cognitive decline associated with amyloid positivity.

INTRODUCTION: The evidence for characteristics of persons with subjective cognitive decline (SCD) associated with amyloid positivity is limited. METHODS: In 1640 persons with SCD from 20 Amyloid Biomarker Study cohort, we investigated the associations of SCD-specific characteristics (informant confirmation, domain-specific complaints, concerns, feelings of worse performance) demographics, setting, apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) ε4 carriership, and neuropsychiatric symptoms with amyloid positivity. RESULTS: Between cohorts, amyloid positivity in 70-year-olds varied from 10% to 76%. Only older age, clinical setting, and APOE ε4 carriership showed univariate associations with increased amyloid positivity. After adjusting for these, lower education was also associated with increased amyloid positivity. Only within a research setting, informant-confirmed complaints, memory complaints, attention/concentration complaints, and no depressive symptoms were associated with increased amyloid positivity. Feelings of worse performance were associated with less amyloid positivity at younger ages and more at older ages. DISCUSSION: Next to age, setting, and APOE ε4 carriership, SCD-specific characteristics may facilitate the identification of amyloid-positive individuals.

Biomarker-Based Prediction of Longitudinal Tau Positron Emission Tomography in Alzheimer Disease.

Importance: There is currently no consensus as to which biomarkers best predict longitudinal tau accumulation at different clinical stages of Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective: To describe longitudinal [18F]RO948 tau positron emission tomography (PET) findings across the clinical continuum of AD and determine which biomarker combinations showed the strongest associations with longitudinal tau PET and best optimized clinical trial enrichment. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cohort study consecutively enrolled amyloid-ß (Aß)-negative cognitively unimpaired (CU) participants, Aß-positive CU individuals, Aß-positive individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and individuals with AD dementia between September 2017 and November 2020 from the Swedish BioFINDER-2 (discovery cohort) and BioFINDER-1 (validation cohort) studies. Exposures: Baseline plasma and cerebrospinal fluid Aß42/Aß40, tau phosphorylated at threonine-217 (p-tau217), p-tau181 and neurofilament light, magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid PET ([18F]flutemetamol), and tau PET ([18F]RO948 in the BioFINDER-2 study; [18F]flortaucipir in the BioFINDER-1 study). Main Outcomes and Measures: Baseline tau PET standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) and annual percent change in tau PET SUVR across regions of interest derived using a data-driven approach combining clustering and event-based modeling. Regression models were used to examine associations between individual biomarkers and longitudinal tau PET and to identify which combinations best predicted longitudinal tau PET. These combinations were then entered in a power analysis to examine how their use as an enrichment strategy would affect sample size in a simulated clinical trial. Results: Of 343 participants, the mean (SD) age was 72.56 (7.24) years, and 157 (51.1%) were female. The clustering/event-based modeling-based approach identified 5 regions of interest (stages). In Aß-positive CU individuals, the largest annual increase in tau PET SUVR was seen in stage I (entorhinal cortex, hippocampus, and amygdala; 4.04% [95% CI, 2.67%-5.32%]). In Aß-positive individuals with MCI and with AD dementia, the greatest increases were seen in stages II (temporal cortical regions; 4.45% [95% CI, 3.41%-5.49%]) and IV (certain frontal regions; 5.22% [95% CI, 3.95%-6.49%]), respectively. In Aß-negative CU individuals and those with MCI, modest change was seen in stage I (1.38% [95% CI, 0.78%-1.99%] and 1.80% [95% CI, 0.76%-2.84%], respectively). When looking at individual predictors and longitudinal tau PET in the stages that showed most change, plasma p-tau217 (R2 = 0.27, P < .005), tau PET (stage I baseline SUVR; R2 = 0.13, P < .05) and amyloid PET (R2 = 0.10, P < .05) were significantly associated with longitudinal tau PET in stage I in Aß-positive CU individuals. In Aß-positive individuals with MCI, plasma p-tau217 (R2 = 0.24, P < .005) and tau PET (stage II baseline SUVR; R2 = 0.44, P < .001) were significantly associated with longitudinal tau PET in stage II. Findings were replicated in BioFINDER-1 using longitudinal [18F]flortaucipir. For the power analysis component, plasma p-tau217 with tau PET resulted in sample size reductions of 43% (95% CI, 34%-46%; P < .005) in Aß-positive CU individuals and of 68% (95% CI, 61%-73%; P < .001) in Aß-positive individuals with MCI. Conclusions and Relevance: In trials using tau PET as the outcome, plasma p-tau217 with tau PET may prove optimal for enrichment in preclinical and prodromal AD. However, plasma p-tau217 was most important in preclinical AD, while tau PET was more important in prodromal AD.

Vascular risk factors are associated with a decline in resting-state functional connectivity in cognitively unimpaired individuals at risk for Alzheimer's disease: Vascular risk factors and functional connectivity changes.

Resting-state functional connectivity is suggested to be cross-sectionally associated with both vascular burden and Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology. However, evidence is lacking regarding longitudinal changes in functional connectivity. This study includes 247 cognitively unimpaired individuals with a family history of sporadic AD (185 women/ 62 men; mean [SD] age of 63 [5.3] years). Plasma total-, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured at baseline. Global (whole-brain) brain functional connectivity and connectivity from canonical functional networks were computed from resting-state functional MRI obtained at baseline and ~3.5 years of annual follow-ups, using a predefined functional parcellation. A subsample underwent Aß- and tau-PET (n=91). Linear mixed-effects models demonstrated that global functional connectivity increased over time across the entire sample. In contrast, higher total-cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol levels were associated with greater reduction of functional connectivity in the default-mode network over time. In addition, higher diastolic blood pressure was associated with global functional connectivity reduction. The associations were similar when the analyses were repeated using two other functional brain parcellations. Aß and tau deposition in the brain were not associated with changes in functional connectivity over time in the subsample. These findings provide evidence that vascular burden is associated with a decrease in functional connectivity over time in older adults with elevated risk for AD. Future studies are needed to determine if the impact of vascular risk factors on functional brain changes precede the impact of AD pathology on functional brain changes.