[The COVID-19 epidemic and total mortality: missed data and the incoming epidemiology]. / L'epidemia di COVID-19 e la mortalità totale: i dati che sono mancati e l'epidemiologia che verrà.

The generation of rapid information has been an important novelty in the COVID-19 pandemic and a challenge for epidemiology. The methodological frailty and uncertainty of rapid data use has been a consequence. We are talking about an 'intermezzo' epidemiology between the event and the production of consolidated data that opens up great opportunities to the use epidemiology for rapid public health decisions, provided a careful work to be done before emergencies. In Italy, an ad hoc national COVID-19 information system producing daily data that quickly became essential for public decision-making. Total and all-cause mortality data are derived from the traditional information system of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat), which, at the onset of the pandemic, was unable to provide rapid total and all-causes mortality data at the national level and still produces them with a one- to two-month delay. National cause and place mortality data referred to the first epidemic wave (March and April 2020) was in May 2021 and recently updated (October 2022) for the whole year 2020. Nearly three years after the onset of the epidemic, we have no nationwide rapid information on the distribution of deaths by place of death (hospitals, nursing homes and other care facilities, home) neither on their breakdown in 'by COVID-19', 'with COVID-19', and 'non-COVID-19' deaths. The pandemic being still in progress, new problems arise (the long-term impact of COVID-19, the impact of lockdown policies, etcetera), whose solution cannot be postponed until peer reviewed papers are available. A fine-tuning of the rapid processing of interim data certainly requires the development of national and regional information systems, but first of all a methodologically robust 'intermezzo' epidemiology.

Plasma miRNA-based signatures in CRC screening programs.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs help diagnose cancer precursors and early cancers and help reduce CRC mortality. However, currently recommended tests, the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and colonoscopy, have low uptake. There is therefore a pressing need for screening strategies that are minimally invasive and consequently more acceptable to patients, most likely blood based, to increase early CRC identification. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) released from cancer cells are detectable in plasma in a remarkably stable form, making them ideal cancer biomarkers. Using plasma samples from FIT-positive (FIT+) subjects in an Italian CRC screening program, we aimed to identify plasma circulating miRNAs that detect early CRC. miRNAs were initially investigated by quantitative real-time PCR in plasma from 60 FIT+ subjects undergoing colonoscopy at Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, then tested on an internal validation cohort (IVC, 201 cases) and finally in a large multicenter prospective series (external validation cohort [EVC], 1121 cases). For each endoscopic lesion (low-grade adenoma [LgA], high-grade adenoma [HgA], cancer lesion [CL]), specific signatures were identified in the IVC and confirmed on the EVC. A two-miRNA-based signature for CL and six-miRNA signatures for LgA and HgA were selected. In a multivariate analysis including sex and age at blood collection, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval) of the signatures were 0.644 (0.607-0.682), 0.670 (0.626-0.714) and 0.682 (0.580-0.785) for LgA, HgA and CL, respectively. A miRNA-based test could be introduced into the FIT+ workflow of CRC screening programs so as to schedule colonoscopies only for subjects likely to benefit most.

Implementation of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis to the specimens flow in a population-based colorectal cancer screening programme using immunochemical faecal occult blood tests: a quality improvement project in the Milan colorectal cancer screening programme.

BACKGROUND: A multidisciplinary working group applied the Healthcare Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (HFMEA) approach to the flow of kits and specimens for the first-level test of a colorectal cancer screening programme using immunochemical faecal occult blood tests. METHODS: HFMEA comprised four steps: (1) identification and mapping of the process steps (subprocesses); (2) analysis of failure modes and calculation of the risk priority numbers (RPNs); (3) identification of corrective actions; and (4) follow-up and evaluation of corrective actions. RESULTS: The team identified 9 main failure modes, 12 effects and 34 associated causes. RPN scores ranged from 2 to 96. Failure modes within the first five positions in the ranking list ordered by RPN concerned: 'degraded haemoglobin in the specimen', 'mixed-up kits' and 'anonymous specimen'. All of these could lead to false-negative results and/or subjects with positive tests not being recalled for assessment. The team planned corrective actions for those failure modes. As a result, the follow-up of corrective actions showed a significant decrease in the proportion of anonymous kits from 11.6 to 4.8 per 1000 (relative reduction of 59%). The HFMEA exercise led to a reduction in: missed positive tests; missed cancer and high-risk adenomas; complaints about the communication of test results to a person who never did the test; and false-negative results due either to haemoglobin degradation or an expired sampling tube. CONCLUSIONS: HFMEA is a useful tool for reducing errors in colorectal cancer screening programmes using faecal occult blood tests and is characterised by a straightforward interpretation of results and ease of communication to healthcare managers and decision makers.

[Investigative model for the evaluation of spatio-temporal clusters of childhood cancers]. / Modelli di indagine per la valutazione di cluster spazio-temporali di tumori infantili.

This paper describes the conceptual framework and the critical issues of investigations of clusters of childhood cancers and defines an investigative model for the health authorities responsible for assessing a suspected cluster, taking into account the guidelines available and considering the most recent advances of the Geographical Information System and of the specific statistical methodology. Three main investigation phases are identified: the first consists in the preliminary study on the health of population living in the area where the cases are defined and aetiological hypotheses are formulated; the second is the cluster evaluation study using statistical methods assessing the spatial heterogeneity and collecting information about potential risk factors; the third is the analytical epidemiological study to test aetiological hypotheses suggested by the previous phases. The residential cohort approach is the most valid to date to assess long-term effects, and allows to reconstruct the lifetime residential history from the population registry. The researchers' decision on how detailed about a suspected cluster the investigation has to be needs to take into account both the level of alarm in the population and the limited resources available. The concern about a suspected cluster of cancer cases should always be addressed, even if this implies to acknowledge limits of research and uncertainty in results interpretation.

The EUROMED CANCER network: state-of-art of cancer screening programmes in non-EU Mediterranean countries.

BACKGROUND: The EUROMED CANCER Network project aims to support non-EU Mediterranean countries in the development of cancer early detection and screening policies. METHODS: Through a structured questionnaire information from 15 countries (Albania, Algeria, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Croatia, Egypt, Jordan, UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo, Lebanon, Montenegro, Morocco, Palestinian National Authority, Serbia, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey) were collected on cancer epidemiology and control. RESULTS: Large differences between countries are evident. Breast cancer (BC) is the commonest cancer among women, though the incidence rate is much lower in non-EU than in EU Mediterranean countries. Conversely, cervical cancer (CC) is much more common in the former than in the latter countries. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is more frequent in Northern than in Eastern and Southern Mediterranean shores. Population-based cancer registries are available in few countries but most of them lack information on disease staging. Opportunistic screening for CC and BC is unevenly spread across and within countries; organised screening programmes are rare and do not meet international recommendations. BC and CC early detection is extensively considered a priority, while a few countries included CRC into their agenda. CONCLUSIONS: Collected data witnesses inadequacy of health information system and, in general, of the strategies for cancer control in the involved countries. A uniform approach for strengthening cancer control is not realistic neither feasible. Tailored preventive actions for cancer early detection have to be started concurrently with the development of a reliable health information system and, specifically, with cancer registration.

Road Traffic Pollution and Childhood Leukemia: A Nationwide Case-control Study in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The association of childhood leukemia with traffic pollution was considered in a number of studies from 1989 onwards, with results not entirely consistent and little information regarding subtypes. AIM OF THE STUDY: We used the data of the Italian SETIL case-control on childhood leukemia to explore the risk by leukemia subtypes associated to exposure to vehicular traffic. METHODS: We included in the analyses 648 cases of childhood leukemia (565 Acute lymphoblastic-ALL and 80 Acute non lymphoblastic-AnLL) and 980 controls. Information on traffic exposure was collected from questionnaire interviews and from the geocoding of house addresses, for all periods of life of the children. RESULTS: We observed an increase in risk for AnLL, and at a lower extent for ALL, with indicators of exposure to traffic pollutants. In particular, the risk was associated to the report of closeness of the house to traffic lights and to the passage of trucks (OR: 1.76; 95% CI 1.03-3.01 for ALL and 6.35; 95% CI 2.59-15.6 for AnLL). The association was shown also in the analyses limited to AML and in the stratified analyses and in respect to the house in different period of life. CONCLUSIONS: Results from the SETIL study provide some support to the association of traffic related exposure and risk for AnLL, but at a lesser extent for ALL. Our conclusion highlights the need for leukemia type specific analyses in future studies. Results support the need of controlling exposure from traffic pollution, even if knowledge is not complete.

Invitation strategies for colorectal cancer screening programmes: The impact of an advance notification letter.

AIM: To estimate the impact of an advance notification letter on participation in sigmoidoscopy (FS) and fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening. METHODS: Eligible subjects, invited in 3 Italian population based programmes using FS and in 5 using FIT, were randomised (1:1:1), within GP, to: A) standard invitation letter; B) advance notification followed after 1month by the standard invitation; and C) B+indication to contact the general practitioner (GP) to get advice about the decision to be screened. We calculated the 9-month attendance and the incremental cost of each strategy. We conducted a phone survey to assess GP's utilization and predictors of participation. RESULTS: The advance notification was associated with a 20% increase in the attendance among 15,655 people invited for FS (B vs A - RR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.10-1.25; C vs A - RR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.12-1.27); the incremental cost ranged between 10 and 9 Euros. Participation in FIT screening (N=23,543) was increased only with simple pre-notification (B vs A - RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10); the incremental cost was 22.5 Euros. GP consultation rate was not increased in group C. CONCLUSIONS: An advance notification represents a cost-effective strategy to increase participation in FS screening; its impact on the response to FIT screening was limited.

SETIL: Italian multicentric epidemiological case-control study on risk factors for childhood leukaemia, non hodgkin lymphoma and neuroblastoma: study population and prevalence of risk factors in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Aetiology of childhood leukaemia and childhood neoplasm is poorly understood. Information on the prevalence of risk factors in the childhood population is limited. SETIL is a population based case-control study on childhood leukaemia, conducted with two companion studies on non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) and neuroblastoma. The study relies on questionnaire interviews and 50 Hz magnetic field (ELF-MF) indoor measurements. This paper discusses the SETIL study design and includes descriptive information. METHODS: The study was carried out in 14 Italian regions (78.3% of Italian population aged 0-10). It included leukaemia, NHL and neuroblastoma cases incident in 0-10 year olds in 1998-2001, registered by the Italian Association of Paediatric Haematology and Oncology (AIEOP) (accrual over 95% of estimated incidence). Two controls for each leukaemia case were randomly sampled from the Local Health Authorities rolls, matched by gender, birthdate and residence. The same controls were used in NHL and neuroblastoma studies. Parents were interviewed at home on: physical agents (ELF-MF and ionizing radiation), chemicals (smoking, solvents, traffic, insecticides), occupation, medical and personal history of children and parents, infectious diseases, immunizations and associated factors. Occupational exposure was collected using job specific modules. ELF-MF was measured in the main rooms (spot measurement) and close to child's bed (48 hours measurement). RESULTS: The study included: 683 leukaemia cases (87% ALL, 13% AnLL), 97 NHL, 155 neuroblastomas, and 1044 controls. CONCLUSIONS: SETIL represents a data source on exposure of Italian children to a broad array of potential carcinogenic factors.

Effects of heat waves on mortality: effect modification and confounding by air pollutants.

BACKGROUND: Heat waves and air pollution are both associated with increased mortality. Their joint effects are less well understood. METHODS: We explored the role of air pollution in modifying the effects of heat waves on mortality, within the EuroHEAT project. Daily mortality, meteorologic, and air pollution data from nine European cities for the years 1990-2004 were assembled. We defined heat waves by taking both intensity and duration into account. The city-specific effects of heat wave episodes were estimated using generalized estimating equation models, adjusting for potential confounders with and without inclusion of air pollutants (particles, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide). To investigate effect modification, we introduced an interaction term between heat waves and each single pollutant in the models. Random effects meta-analysis was used to summarize the city-specific results. RESULTS: The increase in the number of daily deaths during heat wave episodes was 54% higher on high ozone days compared with low, among people age 75-84 years. The heat wave effect on high PM10 days was increased by 36% and 106% in the 75-84 year and 85+ year age groups, respectively. A similar pattern was observed for effects on cardiovascular mortality. Effect modification was less evident for respiratory mortality, although the heat wave effect itself was greater for this cause of death. The heat wave effect was smaller (15-30%) after adjustment for ozone or PM10. CONCLUSIONS: The heat wave effect on mortality was larger during high ozone or high PM10 days. When assessing the effect of heat waves on mortality, lack of adjustment for ozone and especially PM10 overestimates effect parameters. This bias has implications for public health policy.

Estimates of cancer burden in Lombardy.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: Cancer registration in Lombardy covers almost half of the regional population and started in 1976 in the Varese province. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence of seven major cancers for the entire Lombardy region in the period 1970-2015. METHODS: The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled in order to estimate the regional cancer survival. RESULTS: In Lombardy, about 9,000 new cases of breast cancer, 8,500 of colorectal cancer, 7,200 of prostate cancer and 6,700 of lung cancer were expected to be diagnosed in the year 2012. Incidence rates are still rising for female breast cancer, skin melanoma in both sexes, and lung cancer in women. By contrast, the rates have been declining for cervix and stomach cancer. For lung cancer in men, prostate cancer and colorectal cancer the rates increased, reaching a peak in different periods, and then decreased. Prevalence increased for all cancers considered except cervix cancer. The rise was less pronounced in stomach cancer due to the impressive reduction of its incidence and was striking for breast and prostate cancer, with 116,000 and 58,900 prevalent cases in 2012. Mortality dropped for all considered cancers with the only exception of lung cancer in women. CONCLUSION: This up-to-date picture of the cancer risk and burden in Lombardy shows the increasing demand for oncology services as one of the major challenges for the region. However, primary prevention is still the only way to simultaneously reduce incidence, prevalence and mortality rates, thus saving further lives and preserving health resources.

Risk of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma after parental occupational exposure to solvents and other agents: the SETIL Study.

AIM: In the context of the Italian Multicentric Epidemiological Study on Risk Factors for Childhood Leukaemia and Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma (SETIL), the risk of childhood cancer was investigated in relation to parental occupational exposures. METHODS: All cases of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in children aged 0-10 years were identified. Controls were chosen at random from the local population in each region. Parents were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. The collected data were blindly reviewed by expert industrial hygienists in order to estimate exposure to a list of agents. Statistical analyses were performed for each agent using unconditional multivariable logistic regression models, taking into account timing of exposure. RESULTS: 683 cases of acute childhood leukaemia, 97 cases of NHL and 1044 controls were identified. Increased risk of childhood leukaemia was found for maternal exposure to aliphatic (OR 4.3) or aromatic hydrocarbons (OR 3.8) in the preconception period, and for paternal exposure to diesel exhaust (OR 1.4), lead exposure (OR 1.7) and mineral oils (OR 1.4)[corrected]. Risk of NHL appeared to be related to paternal exposure to oxygenated solvents (OR 2.5) and petrol exhaust (OR 2.2). CONCLUSIONS: We found increased risk for childhood leukaemia associated with maternal occupational exposure to aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons, particularly in the preconception period; increased risks were also observed for paternal exposure to diesel exhaust fumes, mineral oils and lead. The risk of NHL appeared to be related to paternal exposure to oxygenated solvent and petrol exhausts.

Exposure to benzene and childhood leukaemia: a pilot case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: Main purpose To evaluate the feasibility of a measurement-based assessment of benzene exposure in case-control studies of paediatric cancer; Additional aims To identify the sources of exposure variability; to assess the performance of two benzene biomarkers; to verify the occurrence of participation bias; to check whether exposures to benzene and to 50 Hz magnetic fields were correlated, and might exert reciprocal confounding effects. DESIGN: Pilot case-control study of childhood leukaemia and exposure to benzene assessed by repeated seasonal weekly measurements in breathing zone air samples and outside the children's dwellings, with concurrent determinations of cotinine, t-t-muconic acid (MA) and sulfo-phenylmercapturic acid (S-PMA) in urine. PARTICIPANTS: 108 cases and 194 controls were eligible for inclusion. RESULTS: Full-participation was obtained from 46 cases and 60 controls, with low dropout rates before four repeats (11% and 17%); an additional 23 cases and 80 controls allowed the collection of outdoor air samples only. The average benzene concentration in personal and outdoor air samples was 3 µg/m(3) (SD 1.45) and 2.7 µg/m(3) (SD 1.41), respectively. Personal exposure was strongly influenced by outdoor benzene concentrations, higher in the cold seasons than in warm seasons, and not affected by gender, age, area of residence or caseness. Urinary excretion of S-PMA and personal benzene exposure were well correlated. Outdoor benzene levels were lower among participant controls compared with non-participants, but did not differ between participant and non-participant cases; the direction of the bias was found to depend on the cut-point chosen to distinguish exposed and unexposed. Exposures to benzene and extremely low-frequency magnetic fields were positively correlated. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated individual measurements are needed to account for the seasonal variability in benzene exposure, and they have the additional advantage of increasing the study power. Measurement-based assessment of benzene exposure in studies of childhood leukaemia appears feasible, although it is financially and logistically demanding.

Air pollution and multiple acute respiratory outcomes.

Short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory mortality and morbidity have been consistently reported but usually studied separately. To more completely assess air pollution effects, we studied hospitalisations for respiratory diseases together with out-of-hospital respiratory deaths. A time-stratified case-crossover study was carried out in six Italian cities from 2001 to 2005. Daily particulate matter (particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm (PM10)) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) associations with hospitalisations for respiratory diseases (n = 100 690), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (n = 38 577), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) among COPD patients (n = 9886) and out-of-hospital respiratory deaths (n = 5490) were estimated for residents aged ≥35 years. For an increase of 10 µg·m(-3) in PM10, we found an immediate 0.59% (lag 0-1 days) increase in hospitalisations for respiratory diseases and a 0.67% increase for COPD; the 1.91% increase in LRTI hospitalisations lasted longer (lag 0-3 days) and the 3.95% increase in respiratory mortality lasted 6 days. Effects of NO2 were stronger and lasted longer (lag 0-5 days). Age, sex and previous ischaemic heart disease acted as effect modifiers for different outcomes. Analysing multiple rather than single respiratory events shows stronger air pollution effects. The temporal relationship between the pollutant increases and hospitalisations or mortality for respiratory diseases differs.